Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting
Access my Personal Prop Betting Sheet Saturday Nights for all the +EV Prop Bets I’ve found leading up to lock, updated throughout Sunday Afternoons as late news is announced.
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Myles Gaskin: Over 64.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Result: Loss (55 Total Yards)
Gaskin received 12 of 19 rushes (63%) out of the backfield with Salvon Ahmed receiving seven. Both backs averaged around three yards a carry in a tough matchup against the Buffalo Bills elite defense. Gaskin added four targets, catching three for just 19 yards in a disappointing outing that saw just 13 points scored between both teams through three quarters. Gaskin came out of the gate strong in the first half, but was underused and contained after the break in a game the Bills controlled for large portions as the game concluded in a lopsided Bills victory.
Michael Carter: Over 68.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Result: Win (172 Total Yards)
What a coming out party for Michael Carter. Papy asked in The Edge last week if we could really project another nine targets for Carter in Week 8 after being peppered by Mike White off the bench. We got our answer, as Carter was targeted 14 times, catching nine of them for 95 yards, adding 15 carries for 77 yards on the ground with a touchdown. Carter looks great with the ball in his hands, unfortunately, check-down artist Mike White appeared to injure his throwing arm and may miss time, dampening Carter’s outlook going forward.
Nick Chubb: Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts
Result: Win (16 Rushing Attempts)
Chubb returned to the Cleveland Browns after missing two games with injury against a strong Pittsburgh Steelers defense stout against opposing running backs. Chubb looked healthy enough but was inefficient averaging just 3.8 yards per carry (YPC), while five carries and Cleveland’s lone touchdown went to secondary backs. Chubb should see his usage rise as he regains form and as his matchups improve, but should continue to surrender carries to D’Ernest Johnson as long as he continues to produce while the Browns wait for Kareem Hunt to return.
Week 1: +10.0 Units
Week 2: -1.1 Units
Week 3: 0.0 Units (No bets placed, family weekend)
Week 4: +4.65 Units
Week 5: +3.1 Units
Week 6: +2.4 Units
Week 7: -0.3 Units
Week 8: -5.7 Units
2021: +13.05 Units
Book: DraftKings (-115), Bet Rivers (-115), Bet MGM (-115)
“RBs with 70+ yds vs NYG: Gordon (118) // McKissic (93), Gibson (73) // CPatt (102), Davis (70) // Kamara (120) // Zeke (112), Pollard (103) // Henderson (107) // Williams (110).”
“Volume is likely to pile up on the ground for both sides.”
“The Raiders were adaptable under John Gruden, and that hasn’t changed with his departure. This week, they draw the Giants, who are stronger against the pass (11th DOVA) than they are against the run (21st in DVOA), which should tilt the Raiders toward testing the Giants on the ground to start this game.”
“The most likely game flow has both teams trying to lean on the run (the Raiders because it makes sense, and the Giants because it has been working recently), which will take some of the air out of this game.”
“Jacobs played 64% of the snaps in his last healthy game and saw most of the RB opportunities. He’s been given 13/15/16 carries in his last three games.”
“Jacobs is priced appropriately but feels likely to be under-owned relative to the chances that he sees extra volume in a positive game script.”
“Finally, Josh Jacobs has been circling the fringes of my builds. The Giants have allowed the fourth-most running back rushing yards, and Jacobs always has potential for a big, touchdown-driven game in the right environment.”
Josh Jacobs does not carry an injury designation this week after getting healthy during the team’s Week 8 bye. He should return to 15+ carries in a solid matchup against the New York Giants, who have given up the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs in 2021. We can expect an increase in play volume for both teams this week, with both teams playing at a top 10 situation-neutral pace of play over the last month. Both teams regularly play in high play total games, while the offenses combined for just under 58 minutes of possession time on average, leaving a little extra time on the clock in Week 9. The Raiders are a three point favorite on the road, lessening the likelihood of Jacobs getting gamescripted out of his usual range of outcomes. Both teams will be looking to run the ball in this one, which should keep the game in a back-and-forth affair in which Jacobs could flirt with his first 20 carry performance of the 2021 season, after accomplishing the feat six times in 2020.
Book: Bet Rivers (-118)
“The Giants try to play fast (7th situational neutral pace), and maintain that pace when winning, but slow down (18th in pace when leading) if they are up on the scoreboard. The Giants are rarely winning, which means they tend to play most of their games at an elevated pace.”
“The Giants WR room is a hospital, with injury questions surrounding basically everyone.”
“Booker played 93% of the snaps last week! That type of usage is rare in today’s NFL.”
“Since Quon’s injury, Booker has seen 16/12/14/15 carries to go along with 4/4/3/6 targets.”
This line is two yards lower than both DraftKings and BetMGM (21.5, similar juice), which may not seem like a lot, but it is a great opportunity to show the potential gains of price shopping between books. This bet also plays in combination with our Josh Jacobs rushing bet, where a game script beneficial to a Jacobs prospective win ties in well with our Booker receiving prop. The Las Vegas Raiders defense has filtered a healthy 23% of targets to running backs (8.4 per game), while Booker has out-targeted backfield mate Elijhaa Penny 20-4 during the 2021 season. With Booker on the field in a true workhorse role, there should be plenty of opportunity for dump-offs and screen passes to be thrown his way throughout the game. He’s caught an impressive 17/20 targets this season, going 14/17 over the past four games. As a small underdog on a team with an OL/DL mismatch, Booker could be used often to keep the Raiders front honest. Additionally, Booker appears in JM’s Player Grid, Hilow’s End Around, and Majesstik’s WorkBook. OWS approved!
Book: DraftKings (-115), Bet Rivers (-114), Bet MGM (-111)
“They have gradually picked up the pace with their passing, however, and have thrown at the 4th highest rate in the league over the last two weeks.”
“Week 9 matchup with a Browns defense that provides some clear “pass funnel” features and whose performance has been very matchup dependent so far this season.”
“The Browns defense as a unit has some talent and can be very good. However, they have been torched by some of the better offenses in the league.”
“Cleveland ranks 3rd in DVOA against the run while struggling to the tune of the #25 ranking against the pass. The way things line up, Cincinnati is going to be incentivized to continue their recent increase in pass rate in this matchup.”
“My main interest in this game lies in the Cincinnati passing game. Joe Burrow is in the midst of a terrific season and has scored 20+ fantasy points in five straight games. Assuming the pass rate stays high in what is a better matchup than most people will realize.”
“In both games, Burrow had heavy pass attempt totals, and tossed 316 yards and three touchdowns in one, and 406 yards and three touchdowns in the other (while adding a touchdown on the ground).”
I think there are a few data pieces in this game that the books and public haven’t accounted for just yet and I’d like to be early in catching the Cincinnati Bengals on the way up to their old gunslinging ways of 2020. Cincinnati is fun to watch, and if you have been watching them over the last couple of weeks, you can see a shift in philosophy as Joe Burrow has gotten more healthy/confident after last year’s injury derailment. The Bengals have decided they want Joe Burrow to impact the game at the highest level, a change from early in the season where the main focus was to keep their franchise quarterback upright and healthy. To me, the biggest signal that Joe Burrow is about to explode in the second half of the season is the Bengals willingness to blow the field away in Passing Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in the red zone (Mike Leone via Twitter), where decisions need to be made quickly in tight spaces and quarterbacks can take vicious hits as the defense is playing with their backs against the wall. They have also been steadily increasing passing metrics across the board as the season has reached the midway point. I urge you to read The Edge write-up for this game for an informative breakdown on competition splits the Browns have faced, and why this may be a better matchup than many will assume. Safe to say, I think Joe Burrow is closer to the elite QBs that have performed well against the defense than that of the lesser QBs the Browns have held in check. The only worry for Burrow here is a sluggish pace of play from both teams, which may keep his overall attempts in check, but after two monster games against the Browns last year I’m betting on efficiency in any game script the Bengals find themselves in.
One of the major advantages of online sports betting is that you can carry accounts with multiple sports books in order to quickly/easily shop for the best line for the bet you want to place. Every week in Edge Bets, you’ll have access to this Player Props Tool from our friends at ActionLabs (click the orange “LABS” below), in which you’ll be able to see at a glance where the Best Lines are.
