Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting
Access my Personal Prop Betting Sheet Saturday Nights for all the +EV Prop Bets I’ve found leading up to lock, updated throughout Sunday Afternoons as late news is announced.
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Dak Prescott: Under 34.5 Pass Attempts
Result: Loss (51 Pass Attempts)
There won’t be many (any?) weeks in the NFL where a team runs 82 plays on offense and fails to throw it 35 times. Week 6 produced a perfect storm, and quite the viewing experience from an NFL fan standpoint, for the Dallas Cowboys to return to their old ways and have Dak Prescott win them an important game versus the New England Patriots to keep pace in the NFC. Dak finished this OT thriller with 51 pass attempts, his most since his Week 1 total of 58, while the Cowboys running game produced 31 carries for 122 scoreless yards. The New England Patriots scored first, and took a 14-10 lead into the half, leading to a game script that had this bet looking dead before the first quarter was completed.
J.D. McKissic: Over 23.5 Receiving Yards
Result: Win (65 Receiving Yards)
If you were around late in the week on OWS, you would have had a hard time not digging into J.D. McKissic and the potential for his best game of the season versus the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6. Not only was he a great play on Draftkings with his PPR upside, but he smashed many of his props just after halftime, ensuring a profitable day for his backers in the betting streets. While Antonio Gibson did aggravate his ongoing shin injury, something that will continue to be an issue until the Washington Football Team gives him an opportunity for a multi-week rest period, JDM’s role was set to increase with this game script regardless. JDM joins a growing list of individual backs to top 50 receiving yards against the KC defense and could take on a larger role going forward if Gibson’s shin injury continues to linger as he managed an impressive 45 rushing yards on eight attempts (5.6 YPC).
Chuba Hubbard: Over 94.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Result: Loss (65 Total Yards)
Chuba Hubbard was able to hold his own on the ground this week, rushing 16 times for 61 yards (3.8 YPC) and a touchdown, but was unable to produce much on his three targets, catching one for four yards. The 17 total touches were a significant drop from last week’s 29 opportunities in a game Sam Darnold, as well as the Carolina Panthers offense as a whole, struggled to move the ball consistently. Darnold finished 17/41 for just over 200 yards with four sacks allowed, causing the Panthers to stall on offense routinely. The Carolina wide receivers carry much of the blame, dropping numerous passes throughout, leaving the Panthers in long down and distance situations all game. After the game, the Carolina coaching staff talked up Hubbard’s role moving forward, with head coach Matt Rhule wanting to “redefine who we are” on offense, committing more strongly to the run game. With Christian McCaffery’s long-term status unknown following his placement on IR, Hubbard’s role could continue to expand moving forward.
Week 1: +10.0 Units
Week 2: -1.1 Units
Week 3: 0.0 Units (No bets placed, family weekend)
Week 4: +4.65 Units
Week 5: +3.1 Units
Week 6: +2.4 Units
2021: +19.05 Units
All of my Personal Player Prop Bets are added Saturday Night and updated through Sunday Morning. I strictly bet player props, avoiding sides and totals, using my previously allocated Cash Game Bankroll. While Sportsbooks are gradually improving their Prop Bet Market with added Prop Bet content being produced in 2021, I believe there is and will continue to be strong +EV Bets available each week, with a noticeable edge when compared to DFS Cash Games. There will be no better time to make the switch from DFS Cash to the Prop Betting market. DM me through Discord (Jreasy) or on Twitter (@FriendofFantasy) with any questions on how to get started. Best of all, OWS has some great promo partnerships with numerous books with generous deposit bonuses for first-time users!
Book: DraftKings (-120), Bet Rivers (-114)
Date Available: October 22nd
Book: DraftKings (-120), Bet Rivers (-109)
Date Available: October 22nd
“Miami leads the league in situation-neutral pass rate at 69%, while Atlanta ranks eighth in the league at 64%.”
“We’re liable to see 135+ offensive plays run from scrimmage here, which gives this game environment sneaky fantasy appeal.”
“These offenses combine for under 44 rush attempts per game.”
“Now consider the potential for this game environment to really open up and we’re left with the potential for 85+ combined pass attempts.”
“On the season, Atlanta ranks eighth in both situation-neutral pace of play and situation-neutral pass rate, with quarterback Matt Ryan attempting 35 or more passes in every game this year (with three games above 42). The Falcons have pass attempts of 35, 36, 42, 45, and 46 on the season.”
“Miami has attempted 39 or more passes in four of their previous five games, the bulk of which came with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback (and they attempted 48 passes in Tua’s first game back from injury last week).”
”The likeliest game flow has this game playing close throughout, with each team tilting their offensive game plans towards an aerial attack.”
I feel like I could have just quoted Hilow’s entire Edge writeup here and left it at that. Whatever metric you look at to predict a high pass attempt game from a quarterback, you can find it here and, to make it twice as fun, BOTH quarterbacks have plenty of them! Both the Miami Dolphins and Atlanta Falcons like to play fast and pass at a high rate. Their games routinely result in high play totals. They have multiple pass catchers and spread the ball around. They both have running backs that can be used in the passing game. Both teams have returning playmakers on offense, while the Dolphins defense has multiple questionable tags in their secondary. Surely, Tua will be motivated to keep the Deshaun Watson trade rumors at bay and build upon a strong showing across the pond in Week 6. With a spread of just 2.5, we can expect a back and forth affair, with both teams set up strongly to succeed with their desired game plans. Giddy up.
*Note: The passing attempts prop for Tua Tagovailoa stayed steady at 33.5 for a couple of hours after being released before the masses hit the number in waves (getting as high as 36.5). It has settled around 35.5, and I still think that is viable but not a smash.
With more content being produced for props than ever before, we are seeing lines move very fast once posted on other sites and discords. Starting next week, EdgeBet props will be posted in discord as they are found and written up, making them as actionable as possible moving forward. The Prop Betting landscape is changing quickly, but in my opinion, remains the most +EV source in our industry.
Book: BET MGM (-117)
Date Available: October 22nd
“The Bears are showing signs of life offensively and the maturation of Justin Fields is growing by the week, with the staff putting more on his plate and showing more trust each game.”
“Actually watching the game and understanding the box score shows us that the Bears are starting to show trust in Fields earlier in games and that he is getting more comfortable pushing the ball down the field and playing in situations where the team needs to be more aggressive late.”
“Don’t get it twisted, the Bears certainly do want to be able to run the ball and have that as part of their identity. However, this week, against the Bucs top-5 run defense, that won’t be much of an option.”
“Opponents barely even try to run on the Bucs — the last three weeks their opponents have had a combined 22 running back carries (six for the Patriots, seven for the Dolphins, nine for the Eagles).”
“Last week’s play-calling and usage suggests they are trusting Fields more and will be more likely to attack the Bucs beat-up secondary than most people will be expecting.”
“The Bears will need to be more aggressive and pass-heavy than their previous tendencies, which should lead to a slightly faster pace and more play volume.”
“I wrote up the Bears passing offense in last week’s NFL Edge and I am even more on board in Week 7. Justin Fields set career highs in pass attempts (27) and rushing yards (43) in last week’s loss to the Packers.”
“All things considered, he dropped back to pass about 40 times last week and I would expect something in that range or higher in this matchup against a more explosive and faster-paced Bucs offense that also makes teams move away from their running game like the plague.”
“This has me somewhat interested in Justin Fields (if he throws 33ish passes and rushes five to seven times, he could easily go for 250-2 through the air and 45-1 on the ground.”
It’s always better to be early, right? On paper, a lot of boxes are checked for Fields to have the best statistical day of his young career. I urge you to read The Edge write-up for this game, if you haven’t already, as it contains a great “beyond the boxscore” breakdown of a possible change in the Chicago Bears trust level and play-calling tendencies with Fields at the helm. Tampa Bay opponents are passing the ball at a league-high rate. The Bucs secondary is dealing with multiple injuries, with Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis on IR, and Richard Sherman ruled out for Week 7. We can expect the Bears to be playing from behind for most, if not all of this game, and can comfortably project a career-high in passing attempts this week for the young signal-caller. Jimmy Graham has been placed on the Covid-IR this week, opening up extra snaps for pass-catching tight end Cole Kmet. While it may not be pretty, Fields has an excellent chance to set career highs statistically across the board.
Good luck this week! Be sure to check out my personal player props bet for a wide range of +EV Bets, as well as check the Discord early next week for the EdgeBets in real-time!
One of the major advantages of online sports betting is that you can carry accounts with multiple sports books in order to quickly/easily shop for the best line for the bet you want to place. Every week in Edge Bets, you’ll have access to this Player Props Tool from our friends at ActionLabs (click the orange “LABS” below), in which you’ll be able to see at a glance where the Best Lines are.