Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting
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The Betting Channel of the Discord has been very active this season. There are bettors in there dailey talking NFL, NBA, NHL, and College sports using numerous different tools and strategies. I continue to urge you to check into the prop market if you have not done so thus far. The ROI for many of us has been very profitable- especially when compared to DFS Cash Games in 2021. This is the equivalent of getting into DFS on the ground floor glory days, go where the profit is! Best of luck in Week 17! OWS has promotions available with numerous books for deposit bonuses- make the free money work for you!
James Robinson: Over 73.5 Rushing Yards
Result: Loss (10 Rushing Yards)
I feel for James Robinson. He survived being undrafted, signing with the Jaguars, Travis Etienne, and of course Urban Meyer to be taken out by an Achilles injury. Hope for a speedy recovery and a return to form for one of the more impressively consistent backs in the NFL. On to 2022.
Matt Ryan: Under 248.5 Passing Yards
Result: Win (215 Passing Yards)
Matt Ryan attempted just 24 pass attempts in this one, completing 18/24 for 215 yards and one touchdown. The 75% completion rating is great, but Ryan continues to be a game manager on an offense that has limited ability to make plays after the catch. As a result, we can continue to see low counting stats as the 2021 season winds down. The 24 pass attempts were his second lowest total of the year, with Ryan now attempting 30 pass attempts or less in seven of his last nine games. Kyle Pitts cracked the 100 yard receiving milestone in this one (102), with no other Falcons player able to accumulate over 40 total yards.
Week 1: +10.0 Units
Week 2: -1.1 Units
Week 3: 0.0 Units
Week 4: +4.65 Units
Week 5: +3.1 Units
Week 6: +2.4 Units
Week 7: -0.3 Units
Week 8: -5.7 Units
Week 9: +11.75 Units
Week 10: +5.8 Units
Week 11: -0.13 Units
Week 12: +6.67 Units
Week 13: +2.18 Units
Week 14: -0.1 Units
Week 15: +1.47 Units
Week 16: +0.00 Units
2021: +40.78 Units
Book: DraftKings (-115), BetMGM (198.5 -113), Bet Rivers (197.5 -110)
“Heinicke has just four games of 260+ pass yds, and none since W8.”
“Heinicke is expected to cede reps to Kyle Allen again.”
“Washington has stated that they intend to give Kyle Allen some run at quarterback in an attempt to evaluate future plans at the position.”
“As such, it isn’t entirely apparent that Washington wants to try to win this game, evidenced by the reports out of Washington stating that the team is likely to utilize multiple quarterbacks this week as they look towards the future.”
“Expect an inefficient and conservative Kyle Allen to see snaps in direct backup of an inefficient and conservative Taylor Heinicke. A whole lot of meh here.”
“Finally, Washington ranks seventh in the league in overall rush rates during the second half of the season and Philadelphia ranks 12th in DVOA against the run while 21stagainst the pass (primarily short-area work allowed).”
“Taylor Heinicke averages 7.8 intended air yards per pass attempt this season, while Kyle Allen is all the way down at 7.1, indicating how conservative this offense has been forced to be this year behind highly inefficient quarterback play.”
“The matchup against the Eagles should be considered net-neutral, as they allow an above-average catch rate but the lowest yards per reception in the league.”
This is a playing time bet, so tread carefully. The Washington Football team, while not mathematically eliminated (who is?) due to expanded playoffs, seem to know they have a minimal chance to be the 3rd team in the NFC East to make the playoffs. As such, I don’t see a likely path for Taylor Heinicke to finish this game and get the garbage time yards needed to break the 200 yard milestone. The Eagles defense sees an average of just 32.5 pass attempts per game against, with large target shares funneled to the running back and tight end positions- two areas the Washington Football Team is dealing with injuries to playmakers with Logan Thomas and both Antonio Gibson/ J.D. McKissic out for Week 17. Terry McLaurin should be held in check by a healthy secondary lead by Darius Slay, forcing Heinicke to try to accumulate yardage and drive the field with his secondary, or worse, skilled position options. Heinicke has not surpassed 225 yards passing over the last five weeks and will be asked to try to carry his team to victory versus a very hungry (and run-oriented) Philadelphia team looking to continue their playoff push. Knowing his head coach could pull the string at any moment certainly won’t help.
Book: DraftKings -115, BetRivers -115
“Hurts has the 21st most rush yds/g of ALL players in 2021 (52.9).”
“Philadelphia currently sit in the seventh and final playoff spot in the NFC and can ensure a playoff berth by winning their final two games.”
“Philadelphia leads the league in rush rate over the second half of the season by a massive margin. Their rush rate since Week 8 stands at a whopping 60%, a full 5% more than the Colts, the next closest team.”
“The problem for us is that the heavy rushing load has been split by no fewer than four players during that stretch – quarterback Jalen Hurts and running backs Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard, and one of Boston Scott or Kenneth Gainwell.”
“Their offensive line ranks second in adjusted line yards, first in stuffed rate, fourth in second level yards generated, and seventh in open field yards generated.”
“Even with the elevated pace of play, the Eagles run 62.9 plays per game this season, which ranks 16th in the league. That gives us a solid baseline expectation of 32-36 total rush attempts here, with room for more should game flow allow.”
“One final consideration is the fact that Washington has ceded the third-most quarterback rushing yards and most quarterback rushing scores this season.”
“Final note here, Jordan Howard is listed as questionable this week with a “stinger,” the same injury designation that caused him to miss multiple games last season.”
The Eagles need to win their final two games to reach the playoffs, so you can expect them to continue to operate the same way which they have since Week 8 in essentially a playoff game versus a division rival in the Washington Football Team. With the Eagles signing Kerryon Johnson to the practice squad this week, I think there is a strong chance they will exercise caution with Jordan Howard (neck stinger) after he was forced to miss multiple games with the same injury last season. With Miles Sanders already ruled out with a broken hand and the Eagles still expected to run the ball over 30 times in a game they should be able to control with their season on the line, it is likely they will lean more heavily on Jalen Hurts rushing ability instead of opening up the passing game unless forced. While a backfield of Scott, Gainwell, and Johnson would be serviceable during a midseason matchup, expect Hurts rushing attempts to increase above the projected eight to 12 in this week’s Edge write up with their season on the line. This is an ideal match up for rushing quarterbacks, as the WFT defense has given up over five yards per carry to QBs this season.
Book: DraftKings -120
“Hubbard’s rush att as starter: 13 // 24 // 16 // 12 // 24 // 10 // 8 // 6.”
“Hubbard’s yds as starter: 71 // 134 // 65 // 56 // 91 // 33 // 41 // 9.”
“NOR ranks 1st in def rush DVOA.”
“Chuba Hubbard has been one of the least efficient running backs in the league this year, and the Panthers offensive line has been a bottom-10 unit in terms of run blocking by most metrics, including PFF’s grades.”
“Facing a Saints defense that is getting back close to full strength and is ranked #1 in run defense DVOA and #2 in run defense PFF grade, it seems likely that Carolina will have little to no success running the ball and may not even try besides a few token “keep them honest” runs.”
A little bit of an IKB (I know better) play, as very few books even have props up for this backfield. The Saints defense is elite at stopping the run and Hubbard has been one of the least efficient runners in the NFL in 2021. The Carolina Panthers are going back to Sam Darnold for a two game audition, which in theory will leave more rushing attempts for the backfield with Cam Newton on the sidelines, but this is not the game environment I expect it to matter. Expect an increase in pass percentage and a negative game flow for rushing from the Panthers this week with Chuba needing a long run early for this to get close.
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