Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting
The Betting Discord has been on absolute fire the last few weeks, so much so that members of the discord have put together a google sheet to track the group’s success. Unsurprisingly, the results show the quality of information and communication being shared is on another level. Best of all, everyone has their niche! Anyone who wants to contribute to the OWS Discord Betting Tracker is welcome to DM their email on Discord for an editor link- everyone else is welcome to use this as a resource of fun bets to tail in the discord with the community!
Follow me on Twitter for more. DMs open for any questions on how to get started or general Prop Betting Strategy!
Jamaal Williams: Over 21.5 Receiving Yards
Result: Loss (9 Receiving Yards)
Williams caught his only target for the nine yards. The Lions were able to take leads into the 2nd half and into the final quarter, leading to 17 rush attempts for Williams (of 24 backfield rushes) and only three total RB targets.
Antonio Gibson: Over 96.5 Total Yards
Result: Won (111 Total Yards)
Antonio Gibson continued his late season surge with 23 rush attempts for 88 yards and contributed five receptions on six targets for 23 yards and a touchdown through the air- totaling 111 yards from scrimmage. He looks to be over his early season shin injury while holding up strong to increased usage. Until J.D. McKissic returns, Gibson will continue to be a usage monster in close games for the Washington Football Team.
Darek Carr: Over 265.5 Passing Yards
Result: Loss (249 Passing Yards)
Well, the Las Vegas Raiders didn’t win, so Carr did not throw for 300 yards, continuing a season-long trend that has seen Carr surpass that milestone in every Raider win this year. With no Darren Waller, Carr relied heavily on Hunter Renfrow (9/102) and Josh Jacobs (9/38) underneath and was unable to hit on many splash plays to get over the yardage total on 38 attempts.
Week 1: +10.0 Units
Week 2: -1.1 Units
Week 3: 0.0 Units (No bets placed, family weekend)
Week 4: +4.65 Units
Week 5: +3.1 Units
Week 6: +2.4 Units
Week 7: -0.3 Units
Week 8: -5.7 Units
Week 9: +11.75 Units
Week 10: +5.8 Units
Week 11: -0.13 Units
Week 12: +6.67 Units
Week 13: +3.01 Units
2021: +40.15 Units
Book: Bet MGM -115, DraftKings -115, BetRivers (247.5 -114)
“These two offenses rank 28th and 31st in pace of play and in the bottom ten in the league in overall pass rates.”
“The 49ers have continued their run-based attack as the season has progressed, ranking second in the league over the previous four games in total rush rate at 59% (second to only the 60% of the Eagles).”
“They pair these high rush rates with a slow pace of play (28th overall) and a defensive scheme designed to limit splash plays against.”
“The macro matchup against the Bengals should be considered a difficult one, as Cincinnati ranks sixth in the league in defensive drive success rate, fourth in plays allowed per drive, third in yards allowed per drive, and seventh in points allowed per drive.”
“Both of these teams have tried to win games in similar ways this season, each checking in with bottom-five pace of play and bottom-ten pass rates. While they both are capable of slightly increasing their pass rates and pace of play when trailing, neither make it to overly aggressive levels.”
“All of that to say, the most likely way for this game to unfold is for it to mirror a late-season slugfest, with each team adopting a relatively conservative offensive approach.”
“Expect a slow-paced, slugfest-style game environment to start as each team jockeys for field position and control.”
We still do not know Deebo Samuel’s status for this one after he was able to log a full practice on Friday (a walkthrough) after working off to the side on Thursday. While his addition to the lineup would be a boost for Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco offense as a whole, it is hard to predict his involvement coming back from injury and a truly questionable tag. On top of this, we have seen his role split between rushing and receiving duties while Elijah Mitchell has been sidelined in 2021, which will be the case entering Week 14. The status of Samuel aside, this matchup does not look like one in which Jimmy G is likely to manufacture a large passing workload and will be reliant on efficiency to surge into the 250+ yards passing range. The 49ers have ranked at the very bottom in terms of situation-neutral pace over the last month, throwing at the 31st highest rate during the same four-week timeframe.
Book: DraftKings -115, Bet MGM -118, BetRivers (31.5 -115)
“CAR just fired their OC from the start of 2020 with an explanation of wanting to run the ball more.”
“QB rushing vs ATL: Hurts (62) // Jones (39) // Heinicke (43) // Tua (29) // Darnold (66) // Dak (TD) // Lawrence (39).”
“Cam rushed for 30+ yds in 8 games in 2020 (38, 46, 47, 48, 54, 75, 76, 79) and 12 rush TDs.”
“In the first game between these two teams, Carolina went with a very run-heavy game plan of 47 rushes and only 25 pass attempts.”
“ The Carolina offensive approach will likely be very clear and direct in this matchup, with a heavy focus on the running game using their backs and Cam in various ways.”
“Coming out of the bye week, the offensive focus of the Panthers will likely be leveraging Cam’s strengths and hiding his weaknesses while finding creative ways to get the ball in the hands of their best remaining playmaker.”
“Cam Newton is now likely to be the true goal-line back for the Panthers with CMC out for the season.”
Former Carolina Panthers OC Joe Brady was alleged to have been fired for not running the football enough. That was after a month-long stretch where the Panthers passed the football at the second-lowest situation neutral rate (41%). We can expect that number to decrease even further, and with yet another season-ending injury to running back Christian McCaffery, we can expect Cam Newton to see increased usage on the ground with a lackluster at best backfield to siphon carries. With both teams playing slowly (Atlanta is running at the 9th slowest situation neutral pace since the Calvin Ridley injury), there is a concern for low play volume here, but we can expect Cam to receive eight to 12 rushing opportunities as a floor after the Panthers rushed 47 times in their first meeting in Week 8 with Sam Darnold starting at quarterback. With the Falcons surrendering over five yards per carry to the position, the Panthers should look to mold around Cam Newton’s strengths and give him ample opportunity to affect the game with his legs, while also opening up running legs for the other members of the Panthers backfield.
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