Why does Vegas set lines? What is their goal? Well, Vegas sets lines in an attempt to get exactly half of the action on each side of every line they post. In this case, they take the rake, guarantee a profit, and move on. So, does that mean Vegas lines are perfectly set? Furthermore, does it mean they are always perfectly set early in the week? No! Every week this season (starting Week 2), we’ll be jumping into early-week betting line inefficiencies to take advantage of before they move. This line movement can be caused by a number of factors, but the primary reasons for movements after initial line release are public sentiment and recency biases (shark money typically doesn’t come in until later in the week, when bettors have more complete information). With that, let’s jump in!
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I have this line currently two full points too low and I expect the masses to follow suit and push it that way as the week progresses. The Rams picked up a big win in their hunt for the NFC West division lead, closing the gap to within one game of the Cardinals. With only four weeks remaining in the regular season, the Rams should be juiced up for another divisional matchup against the Seahawks, who are simply overmatched along both lines to the point where Los Angeles should have their way in the trenches.
The beauty here is the additional half-point when compared to other books, and I’d expect this line to be closer to a pick ‘em were it to be played at a neutral site, giving us a couple of points cushion. Furthermore, there is no telling what is likeliest to transpire when you pit dysfunction against dysfunction, so there is positive expected value in the road dog with the points here.
The Browns are getting healthier, particularly through their vaunted run game, just in time for a matchup with a Raiders team that struggles to contain both the power run game and rushing off tackle. The Browns rank second in adjusted line yards (4.84), second in open field yards (1.13), and first in second-level yards (1.61) this season. The absence of the hook for a home favorite with a spread within the “magic range” is a solid boost to our expected value in a setup like this one.
The juice is just too nice for the AFC-leading Patriots against the Colts. The Patriots will need to force the Colts into one-dimensionality, but they should find defensive success if they can clamp down on the run here. On offense, expect a game plan built around the short passing game as the Pats continue to mold their offense to best attack their weekly opponents. For comparison’s sake, the Steelers are listed as two-point dogs at home against the Titans but their money line juice is only set at +105. The positive expected value lies with the Pats!
No honorable mentions this week, the expected value of the four games above should be enough to carry the week!
