Sunday, Feb 11th — Late
Bye Week:
Bears
Bengals
Bills
Broncos
Browns
Buccaneers
Cardinals
Chargers
Colts
Commanders
Cowboys
Dolphins
Eagles
Falcons
Giants
Jaguars
Jets
Lions
Packers
Panthers
Patriots
Raiders
Rams
Ravens
Saints
Seahawks
Steelers
Texans
Titans
Vikings
'18

Recent Game Notes

Jaguars at Saints, Week 7

Go over to Bink Machine

Change slate drop down to JAX/NO

Then tabs on top, go to Player Groups



Falcons at Buccaneers, Week 2

The Bucs defense in Week 1:
– 23rd in pressure rate
– 26th in hurry %
– 1st in blitz %
Something doesn’t add up.


Seahawks at Colts, Week 1

watching Cowboys/Bucs last night, I had to think of Russ Wilson. Two teams abandoning the run completely, and just airing it over and over again…remember ‘let Russ cook’? Only a season ago. He can do that with the best of them (throw over 45 times). What if that happens here and this game hits the over? A few long JT runs, Carson moves ball decently in his debut, do we see a new (early 2020) Seattle again?


Vikings at Bengals, Week 1

Interesting note on this game as of this writing (Wednesday AM)…same O/U and respective team totals as PHI/ATL (MIN & ATL, CIN & PHI). Both Atlanta and Vikings favored by 3.

Yet, there’s going to be heavy bets on OVER in Philly/Atlanta but possibly not as much on this game. Just interesting…


Only two teams ran 10-personnel (4-WR) groupings more than 5% of the time in 2020: Arizona & Buffalo

AZ ran 10-personnel 20% of the time to lead NFL*! Buffalo 15%. We have the guys calling plays this season in AZ & BUF.

*this at least brings in AJG, Kirk, and Rondale into this discussion.


Jaguars at Texans, Week 1

IF you are going to play Jags offense, Lawrence plus 2 WR (Laviska/Jones, Jones/Chark, or Laviska/Chark) makes the most sense. Taking shots on who can benefit and where is futile until we see more coaching tendencies.

Don’t be afraid to stack this game – there have been two-bad-team shootouts before… (Bengals/Texans Week 16 2020 – a four-man stack won the Millionaire Maker with Watson, DJ, Cooks and Tee Higgins) there’s your archetype…!


End Around ↪️ Week 16,

Game stack on Broncos Chargers is the way to go here. It checks off nearly every box for a 4+ (Maybe 5 or 6 if you’re feeling frisky) player stacks.

Injuries to Keenan and Hunter, along with Lindsay for Denver narrows the distribution of touches dramatically.

Drew Lock is essentially free at $5k. MG3 and Ekeler will dominate backfields and catch dump-offs. Mike Williams and Patrick are the alpha WRs.

With Locks price, you can throw in stars at other positions and if the game “shoots out”, you’ll be in great position.


Eagles rushed for 246 yards against the “#1” ranked defense of the Saints last week with Hurts/Miles.

One of the reasons is because they were without big DT Malcolm Brown last week. He will be out again this week.

We know the Chiefs lean pass-heavy but Clyde Edwards-Helaire could grab the TDs. He played over 70% of the snaps last week (3rd highest share of ANY running back in Week 14). It also happens to be a homecoming game for him as CEH is originally from New Orleans. The narratives are coming!

Pair with Kamara for some late-game leverage on the field.


End Around ↪️ Week 15,

If you aren’t on the train by now, I am not sure what to say.
>> Colts WRs vs. this beatable Houston secondary <<

Pass-catchers against HOU secondary sans Bradley Roby. Every. Single. Week.

My favorite this week is Zach Pascal (price-considered), then Michael Pittman Jr. coming off 90% snap rate last week, and finally T.Y. Hilton. In that order, since T.Y. will command the majority of ownership after his resurrection the last few weeks.


Dare I say it…Mitch Trubisky this week.

The lone high-confidence play in the HOU/CHI game is Deshaun Watson. His pass-catchers and David Montgomery seem to be the next tier. Meanwhile, the best matchup on paper is Trubisky vs the Bradley Roby-less Texans pass defense. They’ve allowed 22 passing TDs and only picked off 3 in 12 games.

Look no further than how previous QBs have done vs Houston in Lex’s matchups. Over 275 yards should be a lock. A little more for the 300 yard bonus.

Gain leverage on the over-owned Montgomery and stack with an obvious partner in Allen Robinson getting over 30% of his air yards.


I’ll have plenty of Jalen Reagor and Henry Ruggs this week. Join me!

In a week of above average uncertainty, let’s take some tournament shots on two high profile rookie WRs who have yet to pop this season.

Reagor:
– Eagles one of top game environments on the slate
– The field will gravitate toward Goedert and Ertz (and Miles)
– Second on the team in targets last week, leads Eagles in aDoT on season of 13.8
– While Fulgham is losing playing time to Alshon, Reagor has had more secure role
– His own WR coach is on record saying an explosion is coming

Ruggs:
– Raiders projected to score four TDs
– Jets are terrible against the pass, especially deep balls
– Gregg Williams still blitzes a lot = man coverage for Ruggs
– Ruggs almost blew up last week but stepped out on the three yard line
– Week 12 aDoT of 19.6!! (vs season avg of 17.9)
– LV needs to come out and make a statement. A shot or two deep downfield to Ruggs makes too much sense.
– Booker and Waller will soak up the ownership

It’s also been documented before how rookie wide receivers tend to come on in the second half of the season. Welcome to the home stretch!


End Around :: Week 10,

Mike Gesicki at $4,300 on DK

With Preston Williams out, and the likely field pivot to min priced Jakeem Grant, simple leverage is going to the second most reliable pass catcher the Dolphins will trot out there Sunday: Gesicki.


End Around :: Week 9,

I looked long and hard for leverage this week but realized it’s staring me right in the face. Buy the season low prices on DK for Lamar Jackson $6,900 and Mark Andrews $4,800.

On this very website last week, many of us were discussing and firing up the “sneaky” Baltimore/Pittsburgh stacks in large field GPPs. Can we all agree Pittsburgh defense is better than the Colts? Yes, yes we can. So why aren’t we comfortable this week plugging in Lamar (coming in angry, off a season-worst performance)? He can always have a long rushing TD, go over 100 yards on the ground and throw 2-3 TD’s.

It’s been noted how both of these teams want to run the ball but take a quick glance at the rushing defenses for both of these teams. Top 5 in the League. What if neither team has success running and pivots to lean toward the pass? There’s a viable path here.

As for a stacking partner (Lamar totally viable on his own on a roster, of course) the Colts defense is the #1 defense in the league against TEs. HOWEVER….stay with me here…let’s look at the murderers row of TE’s they have faced this season:
Week 1 – Jaguars (Eifert).
Week 2 – Vikings (Rudolph/Irv)
Week 3 – Jets (do they employ any TE’s?)
Week 4 – Bears (Graham/Kmet). Gross.
Week 5 – Browns (Hooper) – 10 targets in the game.
Week 6 – Bengals (do they employ any TE’s?)
Week 7 – Bye
Week 8 – Lions (Hockenson). 10 targets.
They have not faced any competent TE’s all season. No Kelce, Kittle, Waller, Fant, Andrews, Jonnu, etc. Truly, this is an amazingly thin matchup so far for them. And, you’ll see in two of the last three games Hooper and Hockenson have been peppered with a team-leading 10 targets.

Andrews is your guy this week if you want to stack with Lamar. Hope for a few rushing TD’s from Lamar and a connection (or two) with his favorite red zone target Andrews. Bring it back with a cheap Colts WR such as Pascal, Johnson, Pittman.


Seahawks at Bills, Week 9

There’s an interesting Devin Singletary angle forming in this game. There will be plenty of ownership here and it will congregate on this game on Russ, Josh, Diggs, DK, and Lockett (maybe DeeJay too).

Last week, Zack Moss scored two TDs and finally went over 50% of the RB snaps. The current narrative out there now is “split backfield, leaning Moss if anything, stay away”. However, last week’s game vs New England was a significantly different environment than what awaits Buffalo this Sunday.

What if Seattle gets out to an early lead? Seattle has given up the 5th most receptions to RB’s on the season (and 3rd most targets per game, per Lex). Singletary is the better and preferred pass-catching back. Singletary has also out carried AND out-targeted Moss in every game both have been healthy this season.

Sure, the snap counts have been hovering around 50/50 between Singletary and Moss lately, but Singletary should carry lower ownership, he’s at his cheapest price all season, and in the best game environment he’s had all season. If the game flows in his favor, is a 60/40 snap split with Moss out of the question? 15 carries plus 5 targets would pay off handsomely.


Steelers at Ravens, Week 8

It may be too contrarian but in large field GPPs, have to love Big Ben.

Two schools of thought here: First, people won’t play many guys in this game because of the two good defenses. Second, if people do come to this game, Lamar Jackson will be the first player drawn.

This leaves absolutely minimal ownership on Ben Roethlisberger who has a full allotment of weapons and may be looking to throw over 40 times.

But NT Brandon Williams is back for the Ravens. Conner could be bottled up more than we think. Also what if the Ravens get out to a big lead?

300+ and 3 TDs is at least in the range of outcomes here at $6,600. Join me!


End Around :: Week 8,

Love the write up this week Hilow!

The question not enough people seem to be asking…how do the Chiefs get to 35 points this week?


Chiefs at Broncos, Week 7

Tim Patrick is way underpriced and will be well underowned too playing 90% of the snaps with Lock dropping back at least 35 times.

Also everyone is now afraid to play Mecole Hardman. With Watkins still out, don’t be.


End Around :: Week 7,

Give me some Chris Herndon IV at $3K on DK this week.

Hilow was getting there in targeting the Jets as absolutely nobody will consider doing so. But with Darnold back and Crowder out, those passes are going to have to land somewhere.

Buffalo only trails Atlanta in most fantasy points given up to TEs.

The matchup is there. Darnold will be accepting applications for a new security blanket without Crowder. The coaching staff keeps talking about getting Herndon going. He should safely be on the field more than 60% of the snaps. This is the week.


Packers at Texans, Week 7

Packers D is incredibly thin but at $3,100 with a pass heavy Houston team and possibly playing with a lead (correlate with AJones), I don’t hate it. They play a zone heavy scheme and Watson is notoriously better against teams who blitz a ton (GB does not). If they can get pressure with the front four, and drop 7-8, Watsons throwing picks this week.


Browns at Bengals, Week 7

Interesting angle in this game is to load up on each passing attack but bypass the chalkiest player (Gio).

Now that Mixon is out for Cincinnati and Wyatt Teller looks questionable at best for Cleveland, both teams should lean more pass heavy.

Others will have CIN/CLE stacks but only a few brave souls will stack it without Gio. He’s too cheap and locked into too much volume. But remember, he’s not good. Old, slow, and might not even be the 3rd down RB this week (Perine).

Beckham and Hunt, Burrow AJG Boyd Higgins, all the money.


Ravens at Eagles, Week 6

I’m surprised to not see more steam behind Marquise Brown this week.

It’s funny, Chase Claypool goes off against the heavy man coverage of the Eagles last week yet most of the ownership this week for Ravens pass catchers seems to be on Andrews? Sure, he’s been phenomenal and Eagles have been absolutely torched by TEs so far but Browns ceiling is sky high in this matchup.

Absolutely love (it’s not cheap, obviously) the Lamar + Hollywood this week.


End Around :: Week 6,

I’ll never top the Chase Claypool call from last week…but while I have everyone’s attention now….it’s Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS) for leverage this week.

The argument for him can be as simple as: team will lean on the pass, high Vegas total, on the field every play, only $4,300. We can: add deep aDOT (top 5 in the league), Adams back should help not hurt him.

Regression is coming.


Vikings Defense $2,300 on DK for some leverage here against the “high-owned” Ryan, Julio and/or Ridley? Sign me up. The Vegas total will scare everyone away.

As JM mentions, they are improving each week. This is a top 15 defense overall, top 8 against the pass. Still missing Hunter and Barr but good pressure on Wilson last week. They should also be in the field less as Minnesota should have success on offense with their ground game. If they can get out to early lead, a lot of dropbacks for Matt Ryan and we know how that usually turns out.


Broncos at Patriots, Week 6

Byrds price is a product of his production on DK but it’s way too cheap. Imagine a world where as you scrolled through names of players on DraftKings their average snap count was displayed next to their names. A 90+% next to D. Byrd would have everyone flocking to him. Take advantage of stats the crowd may not be aware of (and JM astutely calls out above!)


Packers at Buccaneers, Week 6

This game has MVS two TDs written all over it.

Why does MVS pop in GPPs this week:
– highest over/under of the week (we like that)
– he played 97% !!!! of the snaps in GB last game (we like that)
– he’s $4,600 on DK (we like that)
– 4th highest aDOT in the NFL (thanks Lex!)
– coming off a “flop” on a primetime MNF (amazing) note: he wasn’t bad but he didn’t meet expectations
– he’s no Alpha, so he struggled when he was the lone pass catching weapon for GB. Now Adams is back to take defensive attention (think Tyler Boyd with/without AJ Green of years past….this is good)
– TB always stops the run = More volume for Rodgers this week.
– lastly, three words: late game leverage


End Around :: Week 5,

We may be able to capitalize on Chase Claypool this week and be a week early, as opposed to a week too late.

Pittsburgh hasnt played since Week 3. The common thought is they will not be able to run against Philly in this matchup. This means more volume for Big Ben.

Now, all the chatter is on Dionte Johnson. “Look at his % target share!” “Check out his Air Yards” “He’s the clear number one in this offense!” This is all noted and this mentality shift from JuJu as the clear alpha to Dionte has officially been declared. Philly however, has one very good CB in Darius Slay. What if Slay shadows Dionte?

What if then JuJu is just working underneath all game and has a low floor, low ceiling?

That leaves James Washington and Claypool. There’s another general thought here we can take advantage of: Washington is considered the Pittsburgh ‘deep threat’ along with Dionte Johnson. Did you know Claypool, however has the deepest aDOT on the team at 14.6, vs under 10 for Washington and Johnson?

He also played THE MOST snaps of any Pittsburgh wideout in Week 3 (granted Johnson left with a concussion) at 76% of the snaps. His role is growing, he has game-breaking speed. He’s $4,100 on DK.


End Around :: Week 4,

Two hot areas for leverage this week: Hollywood Brown and Seattle Defense

Brown: He’s priced slightly too high at $6.3K but the only ownership love for the Ravens and their expected 30pt team total is going to be with Lamar Jackson. Their RB situation is a consensus stay away. The air yards are there. The other factor to consider here is the common knowledge the Ravens are a run-first team. Coming off a prime time game when they fell behind KC and could not catch up, the public believes Baltimore does not have a passing attack. Grab the alpha in Brown, or Andrew’s too (though he’s expensive for a TE) and zig when everyone else is zag.

Seattle D: let’s put this out there…Miami offense is going to have WAY too. General life rule is when people are loving to play Ryan Fitzpatrick, play the defense he’s against. Fitz has been up and down his whole career. He has great games, convinces fan bases they can win with him, then he rips off a 5 INT game and is benched within two weeks (see NYJ, BUF, TB). The sample size is not small here. Seattle D at $3,400 is excellent leverage.


Cardinals at Panthers, Week 4

Ian Thomas played 69% of snaps in Week 3 (more than Curtis Samuel). His usage and snap counts have risen each week. Arizona vs TEs. I’ll leave this here.


Seahawks at Dolphins, Week 4

Seattle defense against Ryan Pick-6patrick. Leverage.

This is the perfect week to jump AGAINST Fitzy when hes coming off a great game. This has happened once or twice (hell, probably 7-8 times in his career). He puts up monstrous performances, then totally blows up with 4 INT’s and is benched the next game.

Take advantage of the crowd moving to actually play Ryan Fitzpatrick (why) and play Seattle D at $3,400 with me!


The best play in this game is Hollywood Brown in GPPs. Its not Lamar Jackson, sorry.

Remember back in Week 1 when everyone was writing up ‘what it takes to win a GPP’ by looking back at Week 1 2019 when Brown, McLaurin, and DeSean Jackson all blew up? The groupthink was these types of players (speedy, HR-hitting WR’s, AT LOW OWNERSHIP) win GPPs. That’s still true in Week 4!

The Ravens are projected for 32 points! The consensus is they are a run-first team (not wrong) but what IF they scored 3 of 4 TDs via the pass? Lamar will have good ownership but his price is too high. Mark Andrews will be next. This is the week to roster Marquise Brown.

He is coming off a season high 79% of the snaps. His aDot is still strong at 13.5. Yes, his price is high (he needs 25 points for 4X) at $6,300. But his ownership will be small and his score will be large.



End Around :: Week 3,

Very good article this week Hilow!

How’s this for leverage? Greg Olsen.

$4,200 is definitely overpriced but at non-existent ownership. He’ll be on the field for at least 60% of snaps. He’s coming off a goose egg (lone target last week resulted in a pick 6). Highest over/under matchup of the week. Dallas is horrendous vs TEs (play historic Tampa 2 defense and bottom 3 vs TE in 2019)

It’s thin sure and also TD dependent but I’ll be there on Olsen island this weekend.


End Around :: Week 2,

the leverage on this slate is focusing on two late afternoon games with the 2nd and 3rd (or 3rd and 4th depending on when you looked) highest Vegas totals on the board: KC LAC and BAL HOU. So much ownership is congregating on ATL DAL but what if it’s a blowout win for Dallas? Chiefs guys too low owned, Chargers will throw more than people think and if you can get the pieces right in BAL and HOU game….you’ll be on a very small island of ownership.


Steelers at Bengals, Week 12

First thought was this could be a great opportunity for Bengals to steal their first win, then realized there is absolutely no way they score on this Pittsburgh defense. If either team tops 20 points here though, it would be shock. Players out: AJG, John Ross, the entire pre-season Bengals offensive line, Big Ben, JuJu, and James Conner. Think about that…


Broncos at Bills, Week 12

Phil Lindsay’s pOwn of about 4.75% will most certainly be higher by kickoff on Sunday. Too much available information and Ian Hartitz tweet spike incoming


Cowboys at Patriots, Week 12

Pats D at Home at $3,300. Good defense stops good offense, and pass game for Dallas will underperform even more in poor weather.


Buccaneers at Falcons, Week 12

Bet on Russ Gage the week after the crowd was there (pOwn 9%) should trend lower by kickoff. Don’t overthink it.


Saints at Buccaneers, Week 11

Happy Tre’Quan Smith week
– 83% of snaps last week (2nd among WR) in his first game back from injury since Week 1
– See his gamelogs from 2018, volatile but the ceiling is there
– Ted Ginn Jr. is 6th in the NFL in drops this season
– Bucs know they have to stop Michael Thomas


Chargers at Titans, Week 7

throwing this out there but Derrick Henry is about to go nuts if Justin Jones and Mebane dont play


Buccaneers at Rams, Week 4

how about this criteria for picking Rams WR? Let’s assume they all will have similar production for the season. Through 3 weeks, receiving yards vs air yards…

Kupp 267 real yards vs. 207 air yards
Cooks 224 real yards vs. 304 air yards
Woods 143 real yards vs. 232 air yards

Who would you play? (hint: Bob Woods)


Redskins at Giants, Week 4

(whispers) Daniel Jones lost two fumbles and took 5 sacks last week vs. TB. nobody will play WAS defense at $2,800… (shhhhh)