Sunday, Feb 11th — Late
Bye Week:
Bears
Bengals
Bills
Broncos
Browns
Buccaneers
Cardinals
Chargers
Colts
Commanders
Cowboys
Dolphins
Eagles
Falcons
Giants
Jaguars
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Packers
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Patriots
Raiders
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Seahawks
Steelers
Texans
Titans
Vikings

Angles 11.23

Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!

Welcome to Week 11.

🦃 Early Notes On Thanksgiving(!):

As always, the Angles Email will hit your inbox on Wednesday next week. We’ll update you on the content plan for the week (Thanksgiving content — always a blast! — plus Main Slate content), and we’ll drop our Black Friday deals your way(!).

Pro Tip:

If you’ve been holding off on scooping the Bink Machine, or the NBA Bink Machine, or any courses in the DFS Education marketplace (etc.), you may want to hold off until that email hits your inbox. (We go hard with the discounts and deals on Thanksgiving week!)

💰 EARLY BLACK FRIDAY!

$599

  • Special Black Friday price for Props Insider(!!!)

$10,446

  • Props Insider Profit-To-Date

$9,000+

  • Over $9,000 made last NBA season(!)

$2,300+

  • Over $2,300 made in MLB Futures last year(!)

68

Props Insider runs through the end of NBA season (and includes MLB Futures for the ’24 season!)

Monthly options available!

(This deal will run through the end of Thanksgiving week, or until the final spots run out!)

🏈 Week 11 Angles

Twenty of the 32 teams in the NFL have already had their bye week, with all 32 teams scheduled to play next week (as is typically the case on Thanksgiving week). Six teams are scheduled for bye in Week 13, and two teams have an oddly-timed bye in Week 14, which leaves us with four teams on bye in Week 11 — a list consisting of New Orleans, New England, Indy, and Atlanta.

The teams on bye this week don’t do a whole lot to dramatically reshape the Main Slate for DFS, as the Patriots have been a fantasy wasteland, while the Saints and Falcons have been inconsistent fantasy producers at best. The Colts have a concentrated offense that is capable of producing big games, but they are hardly a “key cog” in a typical DFS slate.

The bigger landscape shift comes through the island games this week, where Cincinnati, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Kansas City all boast players who are typically priced at the highest ends of their respective pricing ranges, and where Minnesota boasts a couple additional players who tend to draw heavy ownership most weeks. While we are obviously conditioned to dealing with missing pieces from the Main Slate this deep into the season, it’s nevertheless noteworthy to be missing all of Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson from the same slate.

Even with this list of missing players, however, we have plenty of potential for excitement on the Main Slate — and while this slate doesn’t quite give us the setup we had last week (where San Francisco and Dallas stood out as great team stacks, and all of Houston at Cincy, Detroit at LAC, and Washington at Seattle provided opportunity for serious fireworks), it does give us a potentially higher-scoring slate than we have been working with for much of the regular season.

Five teams on the Main Slate are implied to score 26+ points, with this list consisting of:

Miami (30) at home against the Raiders
Detroit (28.25) at home against the Bears
San Francisco (26.5) at home against the Bucs
Houston (26.5) at home against the Cardinals
Dallas (26.5) on the road against the Panthers

Miami, Detroit, San Francisco, and Dallas are all favored by nine or more points, but as the Cowboys and 49ers reminded us just last week, it’s possible for good, aggressive offenses to produce at a tourney-winning level without “game environment” cooperating.

Houston, meanwhile, is favored by five points against an Arizona team that has allowed five opponents to score 27+ points against them (Giants // 49ers // Bengals // Ravens // Browns) and now has Kyler Murray under center — potentially creating an opportunity for this game to develop into something special.

In addition to these high-upside teams (and — in the case of Arizona/Houston, and possibly even Chicago/Detroit, with Justin Fields returning — high-upside games), we also have the concentrated Jags (23.5) taking on a Tennessee defense that has allowed the seventh-most yards per game to wide receivers, the pass-happy Commanders (23.25) taking on a Giants defense that has allowed the sixth-most yards per game to wide receivers, and the Seahawks and Rams playing one another in a game that has an outside shot at developing into an overlooked shootout. On top of all of this, the Chargers (seventh in the NFL in points per game at 26.6) are implied to score only 23.5 on the road against a Packers defense that has allowed the 11th fewest points per game in the league (20.2), but that ranks 23rd in DVOA and has played only one team that ranks in the top 11 in the NFL in points per game. That team was the Lions (sixth at 26.8 points per game), who scored 34 against them. Quietly, the Chargers’ defense also faces the third-most pass attempts per game, and only six defenses in the NFL have a broader delta than Los Angeles between EPA/play through the air vs on the ground (i.e., there are only six teams against whom it is “more valuable to pass against than to run against”), creating a sneaky opportunity for price-considered upside from the Packers’ passing attack if the Chargers’ offense does their job.

Because the human mind processes small snippets of information better than large blocks of information, I typically aim to fill the Angles Email with shorter paragraphs — so the length and “blockiness” of that last paragraph is a bit of an indicator of how packed with potential this week is. Not only do we have the obvious spots, but we have a lot of other spots as well.

On top of all of this, DraftKings is finally adjusting running back pricing (shoutout to FanDuel for doing this much earlier), and there is plenty of salary flexibility across all positions, creating what should be a wide-open slate.

Should be fun!

Looking forward to digging in deeper.

📺 Week 11 Production Notes:

There were some crossed wires around schedules and holiday travel on my end, and as such, I’ll be flying on Friday for a week with family. A few things this means on your end:

1) If you typically tune into the Angles Pod each week, you’ll be able to tune in early this week. It should be up on Thursday night.

2) If you typically tune into my show with Pete Overzet each week, you’ll catch Hilow filling in this week(!).

3) My Player Grid might be up early. It might be up late. I don’t want to post it until it’s sharp and ready. My plan is to have it ready by Friday morning if it comes together early, and to have it posted Friday afternoon (an hour or two earlier than normal) if it’s not ready in the morning. Travel with two kids under the age of five can introduce unexpected complications, however, so if it’s not up “a couple hours early” on Friday, it will be up a few hours late. (Better “late and sharp” than “early and not.”) We’ll see what happens there.

💰 Reminder:

$599 Props Insider!

Over $10,000 profit to date.

Only 68 spots remaining!

See you at the top of the leaderboards.
-JM