Ravens (

20.5) at
Falcons (

23.5)

IC LITE – SHOWDOWN ::

GAME SETUP ::

• Spread/Total – Falcons -3, total 43.5, down from 48.5 after Lamar Jackson was ruled out.
• Tyler Huntley – Starts for Baltimore; a running QB who lets the Ravens largely run their same offense.

RAVENS PIECES ::

• Derrick Henry – Seven touchdowns in four games but faces the league’s best run defense, Baltimore is on its third-string center, and his 4.2 YPC is a career low. Will be at least 40% owned; his odds of ending up in winning lineups feel significantly under that. If Baltimore wins, though, it’s probably because of him, so overweight captain but underweight flex.
• Zay Flowers – Eighth in receiving yards despite barely playing, and backup QBs tend to lock onto one target. Atlanta is a pass funnel defense. Xandamere would take Flowers 1v1 straight up against Henry in this Showdown.
• Mark Andrews – The other logical lock-on target for Huntley, still a capable route-runner at $6,400. He and Flowers are the favorite Baltimore skill plays.
• Tyler Huntley – At $8,800 he’s extremely cheap for a rushing QB.
• Justice Hill – More interesting than Henry at $3,200 if Atlanta wins and could see passing-game work. Rasheen Ali is viable in blowout builds.
• Rashod Bateman – Played only 47% of snaps last week, popped up with a shoulder issue; at $6,200 he’s all but unplayable.
• Devontez Walker – Season-high 69% of snaps last week, cheapest of the Baltimore WRs, safest of the ancillary options; will catch some ownership because he’s the best-projected cheap Raven WR.
• Elijah Sarratt – Played 36% of snaps; favorite sneaky play at very low ownership, but his role is not secure. A tourney dart throw.
• Chris Moore – Vanished last week but worth watching if active today.
• Hibner / Cuevas – Backup TEs who can be viewed as tourney punt options.

FALCONS PIECES ::

• Bijan Robinson – At least 20 touches every game, hands-down the best play in this Showdown. Likely 70-80% owned, so differentiate elsewhere.
• Brian Robinson – Now $5,800, so the Bijan + B-Rob pairing from last week is harder to run; still viable if the Falcons romp, but pairing both RBs with Penix is tough because the 2x RB build needs rushing TDs that Penix wouldn’t be scoring.
• Drake London – Highest target share of any pass catcher since Penix returned, who locks onto his WR1. In Falcons blowout builds Bijan is the priority over London.
• Jahan Dotson – Doesn’t get huge volume but has one of the highest ADoTs in the league, which paid off last week. Volatile but a solid value at his price.
• Zaccheaus / Branch / Blair – All splitting snaps; play at most one since they compete directly with each other.
• Kyle Pitts – On the field a lot and cheap but doesn’t earn targets. The offense is so consolidated around Bijan and London that mid-priced options struggle.
• Hooper – Most capable pass catcher among the other Falcons TEs, all punt-level plays.