Published Oct 8, 2026 · 4:15 PM ET
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IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::
GAME SETUP ::
- Bears are 3-1 with Tyson Bagent expected to start again after efficient Week 4 outing.
- Packers lost Edgerrin Cooper for the season, further weakening a struggling defense.
CHICAGO PATH ::
- Bears rushing attack should exploit a Packers run defense that crumbled against Atlanta’s strong ground game.
- Odunze, Burden, and Loveland combined for 65% target share under Bagent and face an unimposing secondary.
GREEN BAY PATH ::
- Packers rank dead last in rushing EPA and must lean on Love and the passing game to move the ball.
- Golden, Watson, and Kraft command 61% of Love’s targets with relatively balanced roles across the trio.
LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::
- Bears control tempo through a stronger running game, but Green Bay’s passing attack pushes back more than prior opponents.
- Explosive environment resembles Chicago’s Week 1 shootout; both defenses blitz heavily, opening chunk-play windows.
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GAME OVERVIEW ::
- Chicago has a 3-1 record and has had a different starting quarterback in all three victories this season. Tyson Bagent is expected to get the nod again this week.
- Chicago’s defense has performed well the last three weeks, but has been facing struggling offenses that lack explosiveness.
- Green Bay’s inability to run the football drastically affects how they are forced to call games on both sides of the ball.
- The Packers lost star linebacker Edgerrin Cooper for the season in last week’s win over the Bucs, further exposing an already struggling defense.
- Chicago’s balanced offense features a one-two punch at running back and their passing game has started to feature their three primary pass catchers.
HOW CHICAGO WILL TRY TO WIN::
The Bears offense is built around their running game, with everything else falling into place from there. Last week against the Jets they ran the ball 50 times while running nearly 90 offensive plays. For the season, Chicago ranks 28th in pass rate during a neutral script with only 48% of their plays being passes when the game is close. The offense then builds their passing game outwards from there, with the third highest play action rate in the league behind only the Chiefs and Seahawks. When you look at the Packers season long run defense statistics, they look solid. However, with a deeper dive we can see that they have benefitted from facing inefficient running games from Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and the Jets. The one time they faced a very strong rushing offense was the Falcons, who absolutely tore them apart on national TV. Now the Bears, one of the league’s top rushing offenses, get to square up with the Packers after they lost arguably their top defensive player Edgerrin Cooper for the season.
Tyson Bagent is someone that Bears head coach Ben Johnson believes in. The team refused to trade him to interested teams in the offseason and gave him a very good extension last year by backup QB standards. They also elected to start Bagent in Week 4 after Case Keenum looked terrific in a Week 3 win over the Eagles. The “easy” decision from a PR standpoint would have been to roll with Keenum as the “hot hand.” Handing the keys to Bagent says a lot about what the team thinks of him. He rewarded them with a solid and efficient outing in the Week 4 win over the Jets. Bagent completed over 70% of his passes and averaged 7.9 yards per attempt.
After a slow start to the season for their primary weapons, Bagent seemed to begin to unlock the trio of Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, and Colston Loveland. Each of them had their best game of the season in Week 4 with Bagent under center, while the trio combined for a 65% target share. Expect more of the same against an unimposing Packers secondary. The Packers rank fifth in blitz rate but 22nd in pressure rate this season as they have tried desperately to generate pressure to no avail. The Bears running game should open up all sorts of chunk play opportunities through the air with play action that takes advantage of Green Bay being forced to dedicate resources to try to stop the run. We should expect to see the most explosive Bears passing game we have seen since Week 1.
The Explosive Setup
Mike Johnson is building toward a shootout thesis for Packers-Bears, with Watson and Kraft at the center of his target breakdown. Sign up free to read it.
DFS+ Interpretations::
Added Oct 8, 2026 · 4:15 PM ET
Stack The Right Game
Mike Johnson is building around a specific game-stack structure this week, pairing Love doubles with Bagent doubles and targeting Bears skill players he thinks are ready to pop.
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