Published Oct 2, 2026 · 1:29 AM ET
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IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::
GAME SETUP ::
- Broncos defense carries a 2-1 record while the offense has largely disappointed.
- 49ers offense averages a league-best 7.3 yards per play despite mounting injuries.
DENVER PATH ::
- Bo Nix and the passing game should benefit from San Francisco’s league-worst 14.3% pressure rate.
- Jaylen Waddle and Pat Bryant are positioned for short-area volume against a conservative 49ers scheme.
SAN FRANCISCO PATH ::
- CMC and George Kittle become the condensed focal points, especially if Mike Evans misses with ribs.
- Kyle Shanahan can scheme around Denver’s heavy man coverage by attacking the short middle of the field.
LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::
- Slow start expected as Denver’s talent limits early explosives and San Francisco plays conservatively.
- 49ers scoring first is the path to a high-scoring game; Denver would then chase with its full playbook.
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GAME OVERVIEW ::
- The Broncos sit at 2-1 despite a relatively uneven start to the season. They have relied heavily on their defense to carry them to both victories, while their offense has largely disappointed.
- Denver’s backfield appears to be a clear split between J.K. Dobbins on early downs and RJ Harvey as the primary pass catcher.
- The 49ers offense has been electric to start the season and is averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per play – over half a yard more than the next closest team.
- San Francisco’s defensive line has been decimated by injuries, which is leading them to create less pressure on the quarterback and be more susceptible against the run.
- 49ers wide receiver Mike Evans is dealing with a rib injury that leaves his status in doubt.
HOW DENVER WILL TRY TO WIN::
The Broncos offense has been exceedingly average thus far. They were downright awful in Week 1 against the Chiefs. They improved a bit in Week 2 against the Jaguars but have left a lot to be desired in each of the last two weeks. Their 2-1 record is primarily being held together by a defense that has risen to the challenge in consecutive weeks along with some fortunate officiating last week in their win over the Rams. Quarterback Bo Nix has struggled with consistency and looked lost at times. The running game is below average. The receivers have actually looked solid the last couple of weeks, but expectations were higher entering the season.
The optimistic way to look at this week for the Broncos is they are facing a defense that has been decimated on the defensive line and is not generating any meaningful pressure. Denver has faced three elite defenses in the Chiefs, Jaguars, and Rams to start the season. The 49ers just gave up 30 points to the Cardinals and let them dink and dunk their way down the field all game. This should play well for the Broncos as Nix is far better when he is not being pressured and the 49ers were last in the NFL in pressure rate in Week 3 at 14.3%. The Broncos passing game is likely to work primarily through WR Jaylen Waddle, who has had a roller coaster season thus far that may continue in Week 4. Waddle has a versatile skill set and lit up the Jaguars in Week 2. He struggled with the Rams secondary in Week 3 and the entire Broncos offense flopped against the Chiefs in Week 1. We just saw Michael Wilson rack up catches in the short areas of the field and I believe Waddle and Pat Bryant are going to see a lot of those looks this week. Denver is also not shy about throwing the ball to their backs and tight ends when coverage dictates it. The 49ers force everything underneath schematically and the Broncos will take those cheap early down yards whenever they can.
The combination of those short area passes and a solid running game against a depleted 49ers front will leave Denver in a lot of favorable down and distance situations. This is critical for the Broncos as Nix and the offensive scheme are most dynamic when they have the full playbook at their disposal. This reminds me of a Broncos game last season when they hosted the Cowboys explosive offense and had a similar situation where they were likely to move the ball well on early downs, and that would set them up for explosives. The Cowboys 2025 secondary is a lot worse than this 49ers unit and they also didn’t have Fred Warner, so I don’t expect Denver to put up 44 points in this spot like they did last year. I do, however, expect them to know they can’t rely on their defense to the same degree this week as they have been. To win in San Francisco against the league’s best (to date) offense, the Denver offense will need to play a more complete game.
Finish The Breakdown
Mike Johnson is building his game flow around CMC, Kittle, and how Denver’s man-heavy scheme could backfire in the red zone. Sign up free to read the full edge.
DFS+ Interpretations::
Added Oct 2, 2026 · 1:29 AM ET
The Stack That Ships
Mike Johnson is building around a specific Bo Nix stack paired with CMC and Kittle that he believes could separate from the field in tournaments this week.
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