Published Oct 1, 2026 · 8:22 PM ET
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IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::
GAME SETUP ::
- Packers are 1-2 with the NFL’s worst rushing attack at 3.0 yards per carry.
- Baker Mayfield is out; undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels starts for Tampa Bay.
GREEN BAY PATH ::
- Watson and Golden average 10 targets per game and face a shaky Bucs secondary.
- Tucker Kraft is the X-factor if the Bucs sell out to stop the two receivers.
TAMPA BAY PATH ::
- Bucs will lean on Bucky Irving, short passes, and Daniels’s legs to control tempo.
- Packers defense has been arguably the league’s worst adjusting for opponent quality.
LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::
- Low-scoring ugly game is the baseline, but high variance exists on both sides.
- Green Bay’s explosive passing versus Tampa’s blitz-heavy scheme is the swing factor.
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GAME OVERVIEW ::
- The Packers have the Jets late-game incompetence to thank for avoiding an 0-3 record, and are coming off an embarrassing national TV loss to the Falcons.
- Green Bay’s running game has been the worst in the league as their offensive line play has been horrendous. Their passing game is becoming very concentrated.
- The Packers ability to sustain drives is likely to depend on whether they can handle the aggressive blitzes of the Bucs defense and if they can find a third weapon to go along with receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.
- Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield will miss several weeks with a dislocated thumb and the Bucs will trot out undrafted rookie QB Jalon Daniels to start in his place.
- The Bucs rank 28th in yards per play through three weeks, although the Packers defense will be their softest opponent to date.
HOW GREEN BAY WILL TRY TO WIN::
The 2026 Green Bay Packers have been excruciating to watch. They have a 1-2 record and have faced a schedule of opposing quarterbacks that consists of Carson Wentz, Geno Smith, and Michael Penix Jr. – far from a murderer’s row. The Packers primary issues are a bottom-5 offensive line and they have a defense that is threading the needle of blitzing aggressively but not generating pressure. The offensive line issues and lack of backfield talent leads to struggling to sustain drives, which in turn leads to the defense being on the field a lot. When you put a talent-deficient defense on the field for long enough eventually they are going to break.
The Packers are averaging a putrid 3.0 yards per carry through three games. Week 1 against the Vikings is easy to dismiss as Minnesota’s defense always suffocates the run, but the Jets and Falcons in Weeks 2 and 3 are spots where if you can’t run the ball there it isn’t going to happen. Green Bay now goes on the road to face a Bucs defense allowing only 3.1 yards per rush attempt this season and one that under head coach Todd Bowles has historically taken pride in shutting down opposing running games. The simpler version of this is the Packers can’t run on anyone and the Bucs don’t let anyone run the ball, so this section is more about “how will the Packers try to pass” than anything.
The Packers lost WR Jayden Reed for the season to a scary neck injury suffered on the first play of their Week 2 win over the Jets. Speedy second year WR Matthew Golden is 14th in the NFL in target share at 24.2%, while WR Christian Watson is second in the NFL in “Dominator Rating” on statrankings.com, a statistic that measures a player’s share of yards and touchdowns. These two are both averaging 10 targets per game. In this spot against a sometimes shaky Bucs secondary and a situation where the Packers are highly unlikely to have success on the ground, the Packers receivers should be heavily involved once again. Skyy Moore and the “other” Packers receivers don’t offer much help. The true X-Factor for the Packers offense is tight end Tucker Kraft. The Bucs know the realities laid out above for the Green Bay offense – a lack of running game and reliance on their receivers. Kraft has resumed his every down role but has struggled so far, notably with some drops in Week 3, as he returns from last season’s torn ACL. The Bucs gave up some production to opposing tight ends in Weeks 1 and 2 before facing Kyler Murray in Week 3 (who literally isn’t tall enough to target players in that area of the field). There aren’t necessarily numbers or stats that point to a big game for Kraft, but the circumstances and his talent are such that he could be the spark the Packers are looking for.
Who Blinks First
Mike Johnson is breaking down how Jalon Daniels and the Bucs’ ball-control plan matches up against Green Bay’s leaky defense. The verdict is inside, sign up free.
DFS+ Interpretations::
Added Oct 1, 2026 · 8:22 PM ET
The Stack That Scores Four
Mike Johnson is building around Jordan Love stacks and sees a specific path where Kraft, Golden, and Watson all thrive, even in a blowout script.
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