Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

Unlike last week, the “main slate” on DraftKings is the full four-game slate this weekend, making it a bit more natural for us to focus on that slate in this piece. There are some massive contests for the four-gamer, so let’s get into it!

First off, the diminutive and sequential nature of the slate means we are much more concerned with optimal than we would be on, say, a full slate or a slate that is played concurrently. This is the first thing that is going to shape our game plan development. From there, we must understand that this is the playoffs, and all four of these games carry a wide range of outcomes with respect to the eventual game environment. Any one of these teams can score points; these teams all have solid-to-elite defenses (sorry, maybe not all – looking at you, San Francisco), and most of these matchups are strength-on-strength spots. For that reason, ownership expectations outside of the extremes (the players projected for the most ownership and those that reside in the sub-5% range) mean far less to us. That said, the players residing on the extremes of expected ownership mean a whole hell of a lot to us – more on this below.

Within that same discussion, any team stack or game environment bet carries theoretical meaning, considering any one of these teams or games could become a “game or team you need.”

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Good player, good matchup, good play.

CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Good player, playing without George Kittle, which should elevate his target floor. Good play.

PUKA NACUA

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Good player, good matchup, good play.

CHALK BUILD::

By The Numbers is a weekly matchup visual created using public data from NFLverse. For more understanding of each metric, use By The Numbers Guide.

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

The Core

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections):

Running Back

• RJ Harvey – Harvey is averaging 18.5 opportunities per game since the team’s Week 12 bye and has two weeks of rest and a great matchup against the Bills run defense.
• Kenneth Walker III // Zach Charbonnet – I slightly prefer Walker (I usually do) in a great matchup at a modest salary. The duo combined for 36, 36, and 45 DK points in their last three games of the season and are priced at $5.5k and $5.3k, respectively against a middling 49ers defense.
• Blake Corum // Kyren Williams – Similar to the KW3/Charbs duo listed above, this is a matter of split workload being trumped through volume and efficiency. I expect 30+ opportunities from these two in an elite matchup.
• Christian McCaffrey – CMC topped the slate last week as the focal point of the 49ers offense in a relatively low scoring game thanks to two touchdowns and heavy usage. This week could obviously be the same.

tight end

• Colston Loveland – An elite talent who is ascending and becoming a focal point for his team’s offense. Loveland is finally priced appropriately, but is the only tight end on the slate with a shot at dropping a 30-pointer.
• Dalton Kincaid – Kincaid is a talented receiving threat for a team who is lacking in those and lost two more receivers for the season last week. He has played in ten healthy games with “normal” playing time and had 12+ DK points in six of those games.
• Colby Parkinson – Parkinson is playing on the team with the highest implied total of the weekend, has scored double digit PPR points in seven of the last ten games (including games of 19.6 and 24.5), and is priced at only $3,700 in a great matchup – yet somehow he’s only projected for around 5% ownership? Someone please explain it to me like I’m five.

defense

• Patriots // Texans – This game feels like it has a strong chance to end up similar to last week’s Patriots game against the Chargers. I think the Patriots defense is playing at a high level and the Texans will struggle to move the ball, while Houston is obviously an elite unit facing a Patriots passing game that isn’t loaded with talent.
• Bills – Say what you want about Sean McDermott, but he is very good at scheming defense and makes things tough on opposing passing games. Meanwhile, I don’t fully trust Bo Nix in a big spot. Buffalo is a cheap defense at modest ownership.

GPP Game Stack of the week

Los Angeles Rams // Chicago Bears

This game is the most obvious one of the weekend as likely to turn into a shootout, and yet only Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Colston Loveland are projecting for over 20% ownership on a very small slate. I think there are a lot of fun ways to build around this game and the uncertainty in the Rams tight end room and among Bears receivers makes it fairly easy to find a unique way to go heavy on this potential shootout in a unique way. 

premium passing game stack

San Francisco 49ers (SEA)

The Seahawks defense is legit, so this probably feels like a stretch, and maybe it is. But the fact here is the 49ers are a well coached team with a great scheme facing Seattle for the third time and are likely to struggle running the ball. They won’t go down without a fight, and everyone besides CMC is priced under $6k, with several solid options below $4.5k. If thinking through things from the lens of “which team could be forced into a high volume of pass attempts and has the coaching/scheme to overcome a tough matchup?”, the 49ers stand out to me.

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Wildcard Topics

1. Slate Preference

2. Standing Out

3. Off The Board

---

1. Slate Selection

The Question ::

We have a four-game “main slate”, multiple two-game slates, and four showdowns to choose from this weekend. Which “slate” are you most interested in and why?

The Answers ::

Xandamere >>

This is probably an obvious answer, but the showdowns! I love big showdown contests (and I cannot lie), and four separated island games gives us some nice prize pools to go after. I also don’t hate the 4-game slate, but personally I’m not a big fan of 2-gamers…when going that small, I’d personally rather just play Showdowns where I only need to worry about 1 game at a time. 

Hilow >>

I am the yin to Xandamere’s yang. I absolutely love the fact that DK gave us the full four-gamer as the “main slate” and sprinkled in some solid contests for the two-gamers on Saturday and Sunday. I want to be taking my heaviest swings on the main slate while using the one-day-only contests to layer heavier theory into my portfolio this weekend. To say I am stoked about the slates this weekend is a vast understatement. And the best part is, there’s something for everyone! X is a showdown grinder and MME player, I’m typically a SE/3-Max player, and Mikey is somewhere in between. I bet you get answers from all three of us that are excited to attack this weekend in some fashion. Find the area that excites you the most and hammer the edges this week!

Mike >>

I probably won’t be playing any Showdowns, which is usually the case for me, but it does seem like the games on this slate are such that Showdown could be a profitable approach for those who regularly play them. There are a lot of ambiguous situations in backfields, receiver rooms, and even with tight end usage for a couple of teams. That seems like it would create a lot of opportunities in the single game format to exploit things and build unique, +EV lineups. Again, not my area of expertise but I will probably be throwing in a few showdowns for fun.

I prefer the four game slate, as four to seven game slates are in general my favorite. That being said, the biggest issue I see for large field tournaments on that slate is that the best plays are pretty obvious which will make it tough to differentiate. In general, I am lukewarm about this weekend’s games and slates so I am leaning towards scaling back my play which is not something I usually do until the Super Bowl.

---

2. Standing Out

The Question ::

This weekend presents us with four games which are likely to be very entertaining from a real life football perspective, but all have questions around what type of scoring we will see::

• BUF @ DEN: Buffalo’s offense is down several receivers and facing an elite Broncos defense, while Denver’s offense has struggled at times this season and the Bills generally do a great job scheming against opponents.
• SF @ SEA: These teams have played twice and finished with cumulative point totals of 16 and 30 in those two games.
• HOU @ NE: Two defenses playing at an elite level in freezing temps. 
• LAR @ CHI: The highest game total on the slate, but a Bears team that has had to be pulled out of their shell to score a lot of points and a warm-weather Rams team playing in frigid weather.

With all of that in mind, the game that exceeds expectations to the greatest extent is likely to provide a massive edge to those who build heavily around it. Which game environment do you like the most relative to expectations?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

Eighteen weeks, including Thanksgiving and Christmas slates, a Wild Card round, and now a Divisional round write-up, and this is it for Willing to Lose in 2025 (now 2026). What started as a fun concept back in 2021 has become a real part of me over the past five seasons. If you read one word this season, thank you. If you scrolled quickly past this on The Scroll, thank you. If you are one of the brave souls who spend 12-15 minutes each week reading these words in this space, thank you. Onto the next one is the right mentality for football players and DFS players alike, but there’s a time and place for appreciation. And beyond those introductory words, that time isn’t now! We have money to win…

The easiest research you can do this week is to look at last week’s results. It’s also the laziest and most common approach. So we aren’t going to do that here. Last week’s results are going to dictate the chalk build in tournaments, and I know Hilow will unpack that well. But without getting repetitive, recognizing the fact that the last few weeks of the regular season, to some extent, and the Wild Card round, to a large extent, are going to dictate where comfortable rosters will sit this week. The important note here is that I’m not advising you to ignore last week’s results, but when we see the Josh Allen, Puka Nacua, Colston Loveland, Khalil Shakir, Christian McCaffrey, and Demarcus Robinson-based rosters, just know why. 

For most reading this, it’s likely your brain is wired in one of two ways. To lean into these results and start builds with four or five of these players, or to feel like you want to zag across it all and ignore this pool. Don’t do either of these things. Instead, settle at two or three from this group, and jump from there. We always talk about mixing up the randomness with the expected, and with the recency bias coming in from Wild Card weekend, we must accept that some outcomes will likely be repeated, and some were flukes. As always, however, the right approach is the balance of two extremes.

Josh Allen + James Cook III + Curtis Samuel + Courtland Sutton

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider for Saturday’s 2-game Slate:

Overview ::

It is important to understand the big picture of these teams both in terms of their inner workings and their perceptions entering this week::

• Bills – Buffalo enters as road favorites in a tough matchup with a very good defense. The Bills are missing several pass catchers, which actually should make figuring out their receiving corps slightly less complicated. As usual, everything the Bills offense accomplishes will likely have to come through Josh Allen and James Cook.
• Broncos – Denver has won a lot of games this season, but most of them were very close. This week facing Josh Allen and the Bills it seems likely that if Denver wins it will once again be a contest that ends within a score. The weakness of Buffalo’s defense is on the ground, but RJ Harvey has been very inefficient as a lead back. Harvey’s ability to produce consistently will be key to the success of Denver’s offense.
• 49ers – The loss of George Kittle is another roadblock for San Francisco in what has been a very difficult and frustrating season. They expect to get speedy WR Ricky Pearsall back, but what kind of role he can play is still in question. Expect the 49ers to struggle running the ball consistently, leading to a high volume passing game for Brock Purdy. 
• Seahawks – Everything Seattle does revolves primarily around their backfield and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The 49ers defense is relatively beatable and probably the weakest defense on the Saturday slate. Seattle scored only 13 points against San Francisco two weeks ago, but they averaged a robust 5.4 yards per play and moved the ball pretty well. The Seahawks have a massive rest advantage in this one as they haven’t played in two weeks, while the 49ers are playing on less than a full week’s rest.

QB Thoughts ::

• Obviously everything at the QB position starts with Josh Allen, who we know can put up 25+ points even in low scoring game environments. He is an interesting option on a small slate like this because it seems viable to play him with anywhere from one to three Bills. Playing him with two or three WR/TE options so you can fit in both CMC and JSN with him is an interesting build.
• I expect QB ownership to be relatively flat, with Allen the most popular by a bit and then the other three QBs relatively tight. 
• Darnold with both Seahawks running backs is an interesting build. If the Seahawks have similar, or even more, offensive success than they did the last time these teams played but manage to convert in high leverage situations they could easily score three or four touchdowns. If that happens and the other game is lower scoring, it is totally feasible that both Seattle RBs post very good games and Darnold is the optimal QB.
• Brock Purdy could post a nice game with a high volume of pass attempts, similar to what we saw from Mac Jones for several weeks earlier this season. If playing Purdy, it would be really hard to not include CMC on a two game slate.
• Bo Nix is my least favorite QB on the slate. I respect the Bills pass defense and Nix hasn’t been impressive in tough spots. That being said, I will have a few rosters that have him stacked with a receiver or two and James Cook plus a BUF WR or TE. When the Broncos have fallen behind they’ve really cut Nix loose on downfield passing and he is also a capable runner. Basically the only way I can envision playing Nix is telling a story that they have a terrible start and fall way behind.

RB Thoughts ::

• I probably won’t make a roster without at least one Seattle running back on it, and will have several with both. The duo has 36, 36, and 45 combined points in their last three games and the best matchup on the slate.
• CMC might see 30+ touches in this matchup, so despite the fact he is facing the Seahawks defense he is tough to ignore.
• RJ Harvey is a matter of what trend breaks, his inefficiency as a runner or the Bills run defense weaknesses. Harvey has scored touchdowns at a high rate as well, however, so he has multiple paths to paying off even if the matchup doesn’t spike his efficiency.
• James Cook is an interesting case study on this slate. Tough matchup plus Ty Johnson likely back on the field, while the Denver matchup is very difficult. We’ve seen him struggle in spots like this, so really it is a matter of game script and if Buffalo can play from ahead. He’s my least favorite RB option among the primary guys on the slate, but it admittedly feels wildly uncomfortable.

WR Thoughts ::

• This is perhaps the most interesting wide receiver position I can remember this season on a two game slate. JSN stands out so far from everyone else in terms of projection, volume, ceiling, salary, and ownership. Playing him makes a ton of sense for so many reasons, but if somehow he “fails” the leverage would be massive. 
• Buffalo’s receivers are fun to toy with and the reality is that Patrick Surtain II probably won’t bother shadowing anyone, which means any of them could have a big game. I think I prefer Keon Coleman’s talent profile in a one game setting over the veteran Brandin Cooks.
• The 49ers receivers are in a similar spot to the Bills. Very tough on-paper matchup and a bunch of cheap options. Demarcus Robinson had a huge game last week but the return of Ricky Pearsall seems to complicate things. I would expect Robinson and Jauan Jennings to be on the field almost every down, with Pearsall and Kendrick Bourne rotating a bit based on situations and formations.
• Similar to my evaluation on Nix, my preferred way to use any Broncos WR would be within a story of Buffalo coming out hot.

TE Thoughts ::

• Relatively weak tight end group once again. Dalton Kincaid and Jake Tonges stand out by a wide margin as likely primary options for their teams, but tough matchups. 
• AJ Barner is someone to consider as a leverage point off JSN or as a part of Darnold stacks with JSN. Barner almost certainly needs touchdowns to get there, so that means either he is stealing them from JSN in a lower scoring game or a big game from Barner is part of a Seahawks offensive explosion.
• Dawson Knox is going to be on the field with Josh Allen a ton, is cheap, and probably won’t carry much ownership. 

Positional Rankings ::

(My favorite plays on the slate at each position when considering all elements, including salary/ownership)

RB ::

1. Kenneth Walker III
2. Christian McCaffrey
3. Zach Charbonnet
4. RJ Harvey
5. James Cook

WR ::

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2. Demarcus Robinson
3. Courtland Sutton
4. Jauan Jennings
5. Khalil Shakir
6. Pat Bryant
7. Keon Coleman
8. Troy Franklin
9. Brandin Cooks
10. Rashid Shaheed
11. Ricky Pearsall

TE ::

1. Dalton Kincaid
2. Jake Tonges
3. AJ Barner
4. Dawson Knox
5. Evan Engram

SHORT SLATE-ONLY OPTIONS ::

• Here are a few cheaper options that I’ll be considering on this slate that can help you make a unique lineup, but you wouldn’t be playing on the Main Slate::
  • Marvin Mims Jr.
  • Cooper Kupp
  • Curtis Samuel

Good luck and see you in the lobby at 4:30 pm ET Saturday!!

-Mike (MJohnson86)

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider for Sunday’s 2-game Slate:

Overview ::

It is important to understand the big picture of these teams both in terms of their inner workings and their perceptions entering this week::

• Texans – Houston won their opening game against the Steelers in convincing fashion but face a much tougher challenge this week. The Texans will be without star wide receiver Nico Collins for this matchup. Potential for this to turn into a legit “snow game” if forecasts hold.
• Patriots – New England won a low scoring defensive battle with the Chargers in the Wild Card round and have another difficult matchup this week against an elite Texans defense. Drake Maye continues to play at a high level even when the box score doesn’t show it, but the team’s usage and matchup make it tough to figure out who, if anyone, can post a big score. Potential for this to turn into a legit “snow game” if forecasts hold.
• Rams – The Rams are the league’s best offense and dropped 34 on the Panthers despite their offense seeming flat for long periods. They face a Bears defense that is among the league’s worst on a per-play basis and is dealing with injuries as well. Los Angeles should move the ball at will and how we are handling them should be at the forefront of any roster we make for this slate. This game will be played in extremely frigid temperatures, which has generated a lot of discussion on if and how it will negatively affect the Rams.
• Bears – Chicago tries to play methodically and control the ball and tempo through their physical running game, but is often pulled out of their shell when they fall behind. If the Rams offense gets going how I suspect they might, Chicago could have to crank things up early yet again. The frigid temperatures could, in theory, help Chicago keep this as a low scoring game.

QB Thoughts ::

• CJ Stroud is an interesting cheap option as New England might be good enough to keep Houston from running the ball effectively and without Nico Collins any Stroud stacks become very cheap to make. The ideal way to build with him is probably a single (maybe double?) with one or two Patriots, then loading up on the expensive Rams players.
• Drake Maye is a tough one as you have to spend more than all the other QBs except Stafford, and he is priced right around the same as Stafford in a much tougher matchup and with far less stack certainty. Maye’s bigger games (25+ points) have basically all come in higher scoring game environments or against weaker teams, neither of which applies this week. I probably won’t have any.
• Matthew Stafford is the top QB option on the slate and obviously on this small of a slate you are using at least one of his elite WRs with him, likely along with others. This size of a slate allows playing him with both of Puka and Adams, as they could very well be the top scoring WRs on the slate. Including the tight ends and running backs in creative ways is likely how we differentiate ourselves.
• Caleb Williams is probably going to be chucking it, we just have to see how early in the game that starts and if the Rams are as giving as Green Bay was last week. For GPP’s, Williams might be the most intriguing quarterback as his WRs are all likely to have relatively modest ownership and have modest price tags. A “Williams double” with any two of Loveland, Swift, or any of the WRs as the “double” along with two or three Rams is one of my favorite ways to build on the slate.

RB Thoughts ::

• There is a dichotomy within the position on this slate. The Patriots and Rams are the teams likeliest to give us great RB production, but they split the work. The Bears also split their work and make for an interesting approach if betting that the game is lower scoring. Woody Marks is the odd ball as the clear primary option for his team but a tough matchup for his offense.
• Rhamondre Stevenson seems to have taken over a bigger role for this offense, but I really love TreVeyon Henderson on this slate. He is so explosive and Houston is very good down-to-down so it might be explosive plays that are required for production. Henderson went over 30 points three times this season, needing only 16 and 15 opportunities to do so in two of the three instances. I like both backs a lot this weekend and most lineups will have one of them (none will have both).
• Kyren Williams and Blake Corum continue to split work about 60/40 as they alternate drives but Kyren gets some extra situational work. This week both get an elite matchup. Williams is the best RB play on the slate, while Corum might be my favorite way to differentiate in GPP’s among all players at all positions. 
• D’Andre Swift can be played opposite Rams stacks easily as he could post a solid game in any game script thanks to his receiving ability.
• Probably not playing any Woody Marks this week. Maybe once I build my lineups he sneaks in, but usually on these slates I try to just wipe off one player to condense my player pool and hope they don’t crush me. He feels like the least likely to win me a tournament if I play him and also the least likely to keep me from winning a tournament if I don’t.

WR Thoughts ::

• The Rams guys are obvious. One of Puka or Adams on every roster. Puka’s matchup with Kyler Gordon is incredible, although the Bears could alter how they play after the Packers targeted him so aggressively.
• Christian Kirk is coming off a huge game and Jayden Higgins enters a great opportunity with Nico Collins off the field, but could find himself in the coverage of Christian Gonzalez at a high rate as a result. Xavier Hutchinson and Jaylin Noel will likely factor in as well. I really like Kirk to have another solid game and he is mispriced.
• Luther Burden III at sub-$5k is simply not something you are likely to see in the coming years. 
• DJ Moore and Rome Odunze are extremely hard to trust given recent production and Odunze’s foot injury, but if Caleb throws 40 passes we shouldn’t be surprised if one of these guys pops up for a nice score. 
• The Patriots WRs have a really tough matchup and the team uses the RBs and TEs so much, while spreading out the targets, that it is tough for any of them to post a score that really hurts you.

TE Thoughts ::

• Colston Loveland is where this conversation starts. Elite talent whose price has risen but still can dust the entire position, especially on a smaller slate without a ton of expensive options at other positions.
• Dalton Schultz seems like he is in a spot where targets could be funneled to him as a result of circumstances. Houston probably struggles to run as efficiently as they did against Pittsburgh, while Gonzalez smothers Higgins and the Patriots won’t be caught off guard by Kirk. Don’t be surprised if Schultz sees double digit targets in this one.
• Parkinson and Higbee are once again bringing down each other’s projections, but each is capable of a multi-touchdown game that can alter the slate. As suggested in the overview, how we build the Rams into our rosters is basically at the center of our decisions for this slate.
• Hunter Henry (and Austin Hooper) could have solid games for similar reasons to what was discussed about Schultz, although volume probably won’t be the same for either of them and they’ll need touchdowns to post a meaningful score. Henry has double digit points in six of his last seven games, but over 15 only once. 

Positional Rankings ::

(My favorite plays on the slate at each position when considering all elements, including salary/ownership)

RB ::

1. Kyren Williams
2. Rhamondre Stevenson
3. D’Andre Swift
4. TreVeyon Henderson
5. Blake Corum
6. Woody Marks

WR ::

1. Puka Nacua
2. Davante Adams
3. Luther Burden III
4. Christian Kirk
5. Stefon Diggs
6. Jayden Higgins
7. DJ Moore
8. Kayshon Boutte
9. Rome Odunze

TE ::

1. Colston Loveland
2. Dalton Schultz
3. Colby Parkinson
4. Hunter Henry
5. Tyler Higbee

SHORT SLATE-ONLY OPTIONS ::

• Here are a few cheaper options that I’ll be considering on this slate that can help you make a unique lineup, but you wouldn’t be playing on the Main Slate::
  • Xavier Hutchinson
  • Kyle Monangai
  • Xavier Smith
  • Austin Hooper
  • Jaylin Noel

Good luck and see you in the lobby at 3:00 pm ET Sunday!!

-Mike (MJohnson86)