Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!

Welcome to Week 17! Even though Monday night football just wrapped up, we’re turning the page to Week 17 as the NFL continues to push aside the NBA for attention on Christmas Day. With a unique schedule coming up, and working around a holiday, this Angles email will flow a bit different than typical in order to get you best prepared for the week ahead.

We discuss all the time on this site how we’re in constant pursuit of any edge we can find, and this week we’re looking to move on to Week 17 faster than our competition to find unique angles to exploit and ways to position ourselves for first place finishes.

There’s still plenty of football left…

The regular season is winding down, but they still play ball deep into January in the playoffs, and if you are not an Inner Circle member yet, you can now get in for $29 with promo code “IC200” through the Super Bowl. Inner Circle has literally never been cheaper. Check it out risk-free, and as always, if you don’t like what you’re getting, we’re happy to give your money back.

OWS :: What to expect this week

It might look and feel like a Thanksgiving week, but we’ll be treating it differently than back in Week 13. The main difference you’ll feel this week is there will be a “mini Scroll” for Thursday, specific to the Christmas games. This will include StatATL slate strategy, ownership projections, and more (in addition to the NFL Edge game writeups). We’re getting this to you as fast as possible to ensure you can get a start on building lineups before the holiday kicks into gear.

We’ll reload for Saturday’s two-gamer with another short-slate special (possibly the Deuce?!), along with ownership projections. Then, throughout the day on Saturday, you’ll see The Scroll roll in for Sunday’s Week 17 main slate. A lot to get through, a lot of football ahead, and so much goodness on the site coming your way.

Christmas slate

Well, I hope you enjoyed some offense last night with the 49ers // Colts, because the Christmas games could be a bit light in that area. At least three backup QBs (Josh Johnson, Max Brosmer, Chris Oladokun) and five of the six teams playing either eliminated from playoff contention or trending in that direction. That said, it’s the NFL. Anything can happen, and despite the large spreads in these games, any of the Cowboys // Commanders, Lions // Vikings, or Broncos // Chiefs can hit an unexpected path.

On slates like this one that are so seemingly obvious (i.e., this quarterback is good, this one stinks, this defense is good, this unit not so much…), there is so much groupthink to take advantage of. People will mostly not be overanalyzing this slate too far, especially while swimming in batteries and instruction manuals (like I will be on Christmas morning), so that second- or third-level thinking will be quite uncommon. Challenge yourself to take at least one of these games and flip it upside down, then build from there and see what happens.

Week 17 :: Do less, better

Here’s the reality: two games left in the regular season for every team. Roughly 18 or 19 teams still have something to play for. As we saw in Week 16, there will start to be a visible discrepancy between how some teams get off the bus going forward. But that doesn’t mean the teams with nothing to play for will stop caring (see Bengals). There’s only so much tape these players can build, and the NFL career can be a short one for players and coaches, so even with a 17-game season, there’s still always limited snaps and plays to make an impact.

How you spend your time this week, however, is the key to unlocking this week. It goes without saying that it’s a great week to spend time with loved ones, family, friends, and more, and you don’t need me to tell you that prioritizing DFS is likely not your best choice. However, if there’s one thing we’re proudest of as OWS members, it’s our ability to think better than our competition. In doing so, we hopefully have helped you craft your process and strategy over many seasons to the point that time, even if limited, does not become a huge impediment to building winning lineups.

Use that to your advantage this week. Don’t try to read every word on OWS and listen to every podcast. Instead, develop your own thoughts on each game for the slate(s) you prioritize. Then find the voices that resonate with you on the site (which is the usual approach for so many, anyway) and generate the strategy that works for you.

Cliche as it may be, it’s not about working harder this week; it’s about working smarter. Find your lane this week and prepare yourself in the right way. Sometimes we find success when we research more and put in more time than any other slate. Sometimes it’s the opposite, because we did less, better. Let’s do the latter this week.

Enjoy your Christmas and holiday season, OWS!!! Thanks for letting me be a voice in your inboxes each week this season. I can’t wait for you all to have a profitable Week 17.

~Larejo

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

JM’s journal will be live ON FRIDAY BUT AVAILABLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ON DISCORD FOR INNER CIRCLE MEMBERS

TUESDAY, DEC. 23 ::

THIS WEEK’S JOURNAL PLAN ::

Merry Christmas!!!

We have a unique week (of course).

The Angles Email (in your inbox) gives you a breakdown of what to expect from a content // schedule standpoint this week.

As far as things relate to me :: my likeliest plan is to go to bed early on Christmas night and start my work day a bit earlier than normal on Friday (though I may get a head start on Thursday night), and to then set aside basically the entire day on Friday to work on the slate. I’ll expect my Player Grid to go out later than normal that night (probably closer to my bedtime on the West Coast), so stay tuned in the Journal throughout that day as my thoughts develop. I’ll have preliminary thoughts in morning podcasts, and I’ll flesh out my thoughts throughout the day before wrapping the Player Grid that night. I then have Saturday set aside for working on the slate and developing deeper thoughts in my Journal as well.

Before we get there, however, I’ll have a handful of early thoughts rolling out today.

Lock in with family — and we’ll be ready for the weekend’s DFS slate when the time comes.

THOUGHTS ON LATE-SEASON UNPREDICITABILITY ::

As we get deeper into the season, things become less predictable. We saw that last week in spots like Chiefs // Titans, Bengals // Dolphins, and Falcons // Cardinals (not to mention some spots where at least one team had something to play for — such as Raiders // Texans and Bills // Browns). As we slide farther from confidence // predictability, we should be willing to embrace more variance, and to give a little less trust to our ability to “push all the right buttons” in smaller-field contests. Said differently: our high-confidence rosters // players // core // etc. are going to be a little bit lower-confidence than they might have been in, say, Weeks 6-14, which means that at each level of play, we should be willing to be slightly more variance-embracing than we normally would be.

I was thinking about this on Sunday when the Cardinals and my high-confidence Chiefs pass catcher pairings were floundering (with the latter, of course, hurt by Minshew’s early exit), and it came to mind again just now when opening the slate and seeing (are you kidding!?) Cardinals // Bengals. 53.5 is the Over/Under. That seems low.

And then, of course, last week leaves us wondering…will it actually prove to be low? It should be. If this were Week 14 or so, we would feel very confident building that way. But this deep into the season, we have to at least acknowledge that things get less and less easy to predict. (This isn’t a note on that particular game, by the way. That game just triggered this thought trail.)

Take your high-confidence decisions this week, and then knock your confidence level down about 10% to 15%. If you’re thinking this way, you’ll have a better shot at landing on that perfect blend we might end up needing this week.

BIG-PICTURE SALARY/POSITIONAL OVERVIEW ::

Salary doesn’t seem to be a major issue this week.

At quarterback, we have Burrow and possibly Trevor Lawrence over $6k with “slate out of reach” potential (we also have Josh Allen and Hurts taking each other on, if you want to bet on that one playing out a certain way), and then we have Brissett against the Bengals at $5.7k, we have Shough against Tennessee at $5.2k, we have Cam Ward (14+ in four of six, including games of 18.0 and 23.9) at $4.5k. And while it certainly won’t feel good to pull the trigger, we also have Geno Smith against the Giants at only $4.4k (if we remove his two games against Denver, Geno has gone for 13+ in five straight, including a game of 27.3 to go with a 26.1 from earlier in the year).

At running back, we have Achane at $8.5k bringing a tremendous floor, but having scored over 26.2 only two times all season (i.e., are you really terrified that he’s going to bury you for not having played him?), and we have the high ceiling and the low floor on James Cook at $8k. Outside of this, we aren’t afraid of fading much at the top, which brings us down to Ashton Jeanty (averaging 0.3 fewer points per game than $7.6k Saquon) at $6.1k, Rhamondre Stevenson (likely without TreVeyon Henderson) at $5.9k, Kenneth Gainwell (16+ in five of six; 18+ in four of six) still down at $5.6k, Tony Pollard (suddenly the workhorse again; recent games of 13.2 // 21.2 // 31.1) at $5.5k, and Tyrone Tracy (18+ touches in four of five; 16+ DK points in three of five) at $5.4k.

Tight end always provides us with quality ways to save salary, and DST doesn’t have a standout unit at the top that makes us feel like we have to pay up.

The highest confidence at wide receiver is JSN and Ja’Marr Chase above $8k — but we can build rosters with both of those guys if we want to go that way. The rest of wide receiver feels more dart-throwy; but we’re used to that after the wide receiver season we’ve had.

None of this is a prescription on how to build. Instead, it’s macro thoughts illustrating all the different ways we can go about building a roster this week that doesn’t run into major salary road blocks, and/or that allows us to get up to the couple of higher-priced guys we’re most interested in playing.

Unless you’re building around a story in which a particular game environment goes crazy (and this specific bet influences your use of salary across a chunk of your builds), this looks like a week to not get too married to one specific pathway of building. Maybe you won’t be able to build exactly the roster you want to build; but you should be able to build a roster with a high ceiling in each spot, and with a relatively clear pathway for getting to that ceiling at each spot. It’s a fun week that way.

JOSH ALLEN // JALEN HURTS THOUGHTS ::

A couple years ago, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts played to one of the games of the year, and in what ended up being a massive week for OWS, if you weren’t building your rosters around those two quarterbacks that week, you didn’t have a shot.

So why did I sort of gloss over them when hitting on quarterbacks above? Well, two years is an eternity in the NFL.

Two years ago, Sean Desai was the defensive coordinator of an Eagles team that allowed the third most points per game in the NFL, and while the Eagles took a step back on offense that year after Shane Steichen left for Indy and Brian Johnson took over, they still ranked seventh in points per game. This year, of course, has been totally different. Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean, and Vic Fangio have transformed this defense into a top-three scoring unit, and Kevin Patullo has transformed this offense into a middle-of-the-pack unit. If we take out get-right spots against Washington and Las Vegas, the Eagles have recently scored 19 // 15 // 21 // 16 // 10, while their defense has recently given up 18 // 0 // 22 // 24 // 9 // 7. We have to separate what we either A) want to happen or B) are afraid might happen without us, and acknowledge that this year’s Eagles team is not a shootout producer.

That said, one of the critical components on this slate will almost certainly be landing on the right high-priced pieces.

When paying down this week, we will obviously want to bias our selection toward the players we think have the best shot at a big game — but we’ll also have to be realistic about the fact that we could mostly have lower-priced players scoring “perfectly well” this week, without many standout scores. If scoring is relatively flat among pay-down options, then, “nailing the high-priced guys who separate” will end up being critical.

Obviously, we can’t know for certain that this is how things will play out. But we can look at this slate and see that the path leading to that type of outcome is relatively broad // more likely than most other paths.

Said differently: when I’m paying up on this slate, I don’t want to pay up asking, “Can this guy get me a solid score?” Instead, I want to pay up asking, “Can this guy put up a score I will need to have in order to win on this weekend?”

I don’t think Allen (or Hurts, of course) is likely to put up a score I can’t win the weekend without. But he is capable of that type of score, and this matchup (being a clash between heavyweights — albeit heavyweights who don’t have a ton to play for at the moment) is the type of spot where that type of game could, theoretically, develop. With all that in mind, I don’t mind allowing these guys to hang around my player pool until deeper into the week.

Again: it’s not likely that we “need to have had” one of these guys. But it is possible; and this week, this should at least keep these guys in mind for us.

GENERAL QB THOUGHTS ::

saturday, Dec. 27 ::

JM’S PLAYER GRID UPDATE ::

My Week 17 Player Grid is live :: https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/week-17-2025/#scroll-article-jms-player-grid-17-25

WINNERS CIRCLE PODCAST UPDATE ::

Winner Circle is up early this week. It’s a fun/valuable one, IMO, for what Week 17 can provide. Sort of a unique look at how we can think about attacking this slate.

DEEP DIVE INTO THE SLATE AND POSSIBLE MULTIPLE SCRIPTS FOR EACH GAME ::

If you’ve listened to this week’s winner circle pod, the focus was on the idea of positioning ourselves for the potential uncertainty/variance of this slate by building multiple player pools: running through all nine games, assigning scores to the teams, creating our player pool off the stories that would lead to these scores, and then building either A) a single-entry/three-max roster from this pool, or B) a set of rosters for mme. in my mind, we would do this several times — creating five or six unique player pools for five or six se/3-max rosters (for example), or creating five or six unique player pools for five or six mini-sets in our mme build. (see my pod for a deeper dive into this thought process.) the basic idea is that we would tell different stories around these games as we go through them different times. so one time, we may say that the patriots come out flat and play to a low-scoring game vs the jets. another time, we say the pats come out hot and smash the jets in something like a 41-13 win. one time, we may say that the eagles and bills play to an unexpected 35-31 shootout. another time we may say that game is a 13-19 slug-fest. (you get the idea.) ultimately, we would have five or six different — but clearly possible — outcomes mapped out for each game, with five or six different player pools built off these outcomes, for five or six hand-built rosters or five or six mini-sets in mme.

obviously, some of our game sketches would be similar to others — and some players would show up in all of our player pools (with varying degrees of emphasis depending on the scores we sketched out) — but the idea would be to open our mind (and our rosters) to some of the stranger outcomes we might see.

in the pod, i ran through one set of game outcomes for a sample player pool, and also touched on some of the other outcomes we might consider.

here are a few more outcomes to think about this week ::

seattle // carolina ::

• seattle 34, carolina 17 :: seattle has no trouble with carolina’s defense and hits for several big plays, scoring four touchdowns and producing something elite for dfs

cardinals // bengals ::

• bengals 26, cardinals 17 :: each team scores only two touchdowns, and no one is a must-play
• cardinals 31, bengals 20 :: the cardinals surprise with an unexpectedly strong game on defense, and have their best offensive performance in months — with brissett and mcbride hitting the high end of their range and no one from the bengals being worthy of bring-back consideration

steelers // browns ::

• steelers 31, browns 3 :: the steelers smash the browns, forcing multiple turnovers and scoring multiple short-field touchdowns, setting up a steelers rb + dst pairing for success
• browns 17, steelers 13 :: the steelers come out flat; harold fannin posts a strong score, and nothing else from this game is worth playing

jaguars // colts ::

• jaguars 27, colts 24 :: does a score like this yield anything worth using in tourneys? this isn’t a lawrence smash, and the jags spread the ball around too much for this to spike much interest. maybe josh downs is the play on this scenario with the colts’ heavier 11-personnel rates with rivers in shotgun. maybe rivers is throwing three touchdown passes.

buccaneers // dolphins ::

• bucs 31, dolphins 13 :: bucs smash, baker + evans is an elite play, and nothing on the dolphins is worth playing

patriots // jets ::

• patriots 23, jets 6 :: i’ve run through a bunch of scenarios from this game already. here’s a scenario where only diggs and kyle williams are really worth consideration, and where the pats’ dst is probably worth the price tag.

saints // titans ::

• titans 31, saints 17 :: titans stacks in play // titans rbs in play
• saints 26, titans 14 :: juwan johnson (price-considered) is the only guy worth considering

giants // raiders ::

• giants 13, raiders 10 :: nothing worth playing
• giants 45, raiders 33 :: over-stacking this game is the play, with dart + slayton the stack of the slate

eagles // bills ::

• eagles 27, bills 24 :: running backs are worth considering, but not worth prioritizing

this is just a set of ideas to get you started — but ideally A) you’ll have 30 minutes available to listen to winner circle on 2x speed, and B) you’ll have time to get creative around various ways the games on this slate can play out.

PLAYER GRID SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE ::

Not much here this week, but my “Sunday morning” update is live :: https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/week-17-2025/#scroll-article-jms-player-grid-17-25

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

We have a slate with very little certainty outside of the top expected game environment, the chalkiest piece of the season to not be a fill-in running back, and a running back position with very little certainty – all balled up into a nine-game slate. The field is going to struggle this week, no doubt about it. So, let’s simplify things, shall we? Target game environments, release the innate desire to feel comfortable, and build for first place. If it helps, lower your entry fees so you’re not overextending your bankroll and build to ship GPPs. Variance is going to be off the charts on this slate. Why not lean into it instead of locking Ashton Jeanty (just an example)?

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

ASHTON JEANTY

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Jeanty has six games of single-digit output and three games over 20 DK points this season. He is running behind one of the worst run-blocking offensive lines in the league on a team implied for under 20 points. That profile would be nowhere near the ownership he is projected for if not for this wonky slate with very little certainty. The thing is, Jeanty himself carries very little certainty! His range of outcomes is about as wide as they come for a borderline workhorse running back. And yet, he is projected to be the chalkiest player we’ve had all season outside of fill-in running backs stepping into featured roles.

JA’MARR CHASE

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Chase carries the highest raw floor and ceiling combination on the slate, in a game environment with the second highest game total of the season, between two teams ranked in the bottom three in both total defense and scoring defense. Yeah, this one checks out.

JAKOBI MEYERS

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Meyers is “fine” in a vacuum. His underlying metrics with the Jaguars are “solid yet unspectacular,” the matchup is good, and the team total is elite. He also wouldn’t be this heavily owned on a normal slate, however.

JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. JSN has shown us all season what he can do on limited volume, so you’ll get no pushback from me on this one.

JONATHAN TAYLOR

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Jonathan Taylor has not put up more than 16.9 DK points in any of the team’s seven losses this season. So, what is the field telling us with this ownership – that they expect the Colts to upset the Jaguars, or that they are uncomfortable with uncertainty this week? I believe it to be the latter.

MICHAEL MAYER

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Look, any min-priced tight end stepping into a potentially featured role warrants consideration, particularly one as talented as Mayer. That said, this is still a tight end on a bottom-feeder offense with a low team total. Did we not learn anything this offseason when we took two players from this team in the first two rounds of best ball drafts?

CHALK BUILD::

By The Numbers is a weekly matchup visual created using public data from NFLverse. For more understanding of each metric, use By The Numbers Guide.

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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Sunday Morning Update

Here’s a look at my exposures on the weekend, and how I’m attacking this slate ::

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Bottom-Up Build

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.1K

Geno Smith
Kenneth Gainwell
Michael Carter
Ja’Marr Chase
Kyle Williams
Tre Tucker
Jack Bech
Trey McBride
Panthers

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

Trey McBride

See Cardinals // Bengals Build-Around

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“Not Picking First”

Geno Smith + Tre Tucker + Jack Bech

Story:

“Unlocking salary is important this week (especially if the cheap stack can still hit)”

Why It Works:

The main idea here is that this could turn into a slate where “saving money with our stack” proves to be more important than any other considerations at the position. If Brissett posts his typical 20-24 points at $5.7k, Burrow posts a score in the mid- to low-20s instead of in the 30s, Trevor Lawrence has a strong real-life game but fails to pile up a bunch of end zone visits, and Bills // Eagles plays to the game total, then we suddenly have a slate where paying up at quarterback isn’t doing a whole lot for us. And on a slate that also includes several high-priced running backs capable of hitting, JSN and Ja’Marr Chase capable of posting monster games, and Trey McBride in his best matchup of the season, “none of the higher-priced QBs hitting” would probably open the door for some pay-down QB option to be what unlocks the optimal approach to the slate. In order to maximize our chances of winning a tourney with the pay-down approach, however, we ideally want to select a quarterback // stack that does have pathways to high-end production, and this is where Geno becomes especially intriguing.

In addition to posting 13+ in five consecutive games against “not Denver,” Geno has games this year of 26.1 and 27.3. With Jakobi Meyers in Jacksonville and Brock Bowers on IR, we also get cheap stacking options, with Jeanty and Mayer (touched on in the Bonus section, below) obviously in play, but with Tre Tucker and Jack Bech, in particular, standing out to me here.

Tucker has received alpha treatment in the past, and has over 25% of the team’s targets with Bowers off the field since Jakobi was traded. He also has a matchup against a Giants defense that ranks bottom eight in production to WR1s, production to perimeter wideouts, and completions of 20+ yards. Bech, of course, has also seen his role ramped up at the end of a lost season, with a 72.2% snap rate last week, and with recent target counts of 3 // 3 // 6 // 3.

How It Works:

I also like the idea of rolling out Geno + Tucker, Geno + Tucker + Jeanty, and Geno + Tucker + Mayer as primary starting points; but part of the particular power of the block listed here is the mega leverage gained over a pair of likely-popular pieces in Jeanty and Mayer if Tucker and Bech are hitting instead.

Regardless of how you put together this stack, however, the core point still stands: you can free up salary to “win the slate through other means,” and you can do so with a stack that also has pathways to high-end production of its own.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“March In”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

“No Hitting On The Infield” (named by my six-year-old)

This is similar to our featured rule from last week, in that I want to run this rule through a few hundred rosters in order to see what’s possible. What do rosters look like if I lock in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ja’Marr Chase, and Trey McBride? Is it possible to have a set of options I really like with these three high-priced players included? By putting this rule into the Bink Machine and allowing it to build hundreds of rosters from this starting point, we can get a much better idea of what’s possible here.

This rule says, “On 100% of rosters, include all three players from this pool.”

$3.17/Week!

At $19 for rest-of-season (playoffs included!), you can grab the Bink Machine for only $3.17/week.

If you try it and find it isn’t a valuable tool for you, just let us know, and we’ll refund your money.

The Bink Machine is not just for MME players(!). It’s an incredibly powerful process-enhancer for SE/3-Max // hand-building as well.

AGAIN: No risk. If you try it, and it isn’t a fit for you, just let us know, and we’ll send you back your money.

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Joe Burrow || Trevor Lawrence || Jacoby Brissett || Tyler Shough || Geno Smith

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my Fanduel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

The Core ::

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::

• Ashton Jeanty – Elite talent facing the worst run defense in football with basically guaranteed massive volume.
• Rhamondre Stevenson – If TreVeyon Henderson plays in this game, I would expect his role to be very limited coming off a concussion especially once the Patriots take control. Basically Stevenson is a smash if Henderson is out, and is an elite GPP option if Henderson plays.
• Saquon Barkley – The Bills have been gashed on the ground this season and Barkley has quietly been heating up in recent weeks, with two of his best games over the last three weeks.
• Travis Etienne Jr. – One of the best backs in the league in recent weeks has an elite role in a high leverage game against a struggling defense.
• Chase Brown – Follow the points!! The Bengals should score a lot of points this week and Brown showed last week why everyone drafted him in the second round in August. Elite role, matchup, and game environment.
• Bucky Irving – Talented player in a strong matchup. Salary has dropped to reflect the workload concerns, but Bucky has 30-point upside in this spot where we expect the Bucs to score a lot.

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Diamonds in the Static

Nine-game slates aren’t exactly fertile ground for low-owned ceiling hunting. Most of the obvious rocks have already been flipped. But all it takes is one overlooked diamond to turn a min-cash into something louder. So let’s bite down, shed our biases, and start digging.

Some of these are not for the faint of heart. These are players I’ll be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses while adding correlation. Keep this stuff out of your cash games for god’s sake.

*Ownership projections are subject to change before lock. Check OWS projections on Sunday morning. 

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments.  My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the slate.

Picking Games

Week 17 has four games that pique my interest:

• Cardinals @ Bengals (53)
• Jaguars @ Colts (48)
• Pats @ Jets (43)
• Eagles @ Bills (44)

I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.

Cardinals @ Bengals (53)

The game of the week. This is one that a lot of people had circled from the start of the year when drafting Best Ball teams. Both of my teams that made the finals have players from this game (Tee Higgins is 2% owned. One time!) Things have only gotten juicier after the Cardinals defense, which was already sub-par, was decimated by injuries last week. They lost three defensive starters, and they were already a unit to target. Things couldn’t be any different for the Bengals offense. After being injured all season, they finally have their full complement of weapons available. This game has a monster total (53) and has all the ingredients for a shootout. Everyone in this game is expected to be popular. Ja’Marr Chase is predicted to draw massive (45%) ownership, and Tee Higgins, who should be the least owned of the Bengals, will still be on plenty of rosters (12%). It’s difficult to pay up at TE, but plenty of people (16%) are predicted to get up to Trey McBride. Chase Brown (20%) will also be chalk. There is no way to be sneaky in this game, and my favorite stack won’t be subtle. I’m going to try and play Burrow + Chase + Higgins + McBride on my main lineup, and I’ll cram in Brown too if possible. The best way to stack this game is to over-stack and hope to create uniqueness by having more players from this game than the average roster.

Jaguars @ Colts (48)

The second game with a clear path to upside, this game is also going to produce a ton of chalk. Trevor Lawrence has been on a heater and is still reasonably priced. All his WRs feel unpriced, and Etienne is still reasonable. Much like the Bengals, none of the Jaguars primary offensive pieces are expected to be rostered less than 20%, other than Brian Thomas, who is still going to draw 10% ownership. Where this game differs from the AZ / CIN game environment is that it’s difficult to play any of the Colts. Phillip Rivers is doing an admirable job, but it’s hard to see him caring about a meaningless game for a team he just joined. It’s clear that his arm doesn’t have any downfield juice, a fact that a smart coach like Liam Coen will use to sit on the underneath routes. People are going to force a Colt onto rosters with the Jags, but I’m not sure that’s necessary. Josh Downs is only on the field as a slot WR, but his role matches the best with what Rivers is still capable of doing, and he saw nine targets last week. My favorite way to stack this game is T-Law + Thomas + Meyers + Downs, but I’ll also play lineups that just use only Jaguars.

Pats @ Jets (43)

Ownership is expected to be more moderate in this game than the first two mentioned, but it still is going to be relatively high. All the Patriots offense is projected to draw between 15-20% ownership. There is also a chance that TreVeyon Henderson will miss with a concussion. If he sits, Rhamondre Stevenson will instantly become the most popular RB after he played every snap last week once Henderson went down. Drake Maye is priced at the top of the slate, and it’s always hard to pay up for a QB in a projected blowout. That’s the rub for this game; will the Patriots hang 40 on the Jets because they can? Or, are they going to do just enough to win? The Patriots have been passing at a top-five rate over the past month, and the Jets pass defense is horrific. Those two elements make all the Patriots passing game pieces appealing. There is a chance that the Jets will fight back or score early (think the Jaguars game from a couple of weeks ago). This game comes down to how aggressive the Patriots coaching staff wants to be if they’re up multiple scores. I’m going to use Patriots, but I don’t see myself stacking this game. I’m likely to use their WRs are one off plays, and Stevenson if Henderson doesn’t play. 

Eagles @ Bills (44)

This is the first game that is appealing and could have low ownership. Josh Allen is the cheapest he has been all season and is expected to be 2% owned. That combination alone should pique interest. The reason he’s so cheap is that he doesn’t have a plus matchup. Allen always has massive upside, and he’s in play for large field contests. The Bills run defense has been knocked around (31^st in DVOA) all season and the Eagles have looked better running the ball. Saquon Barkley is projected for moderate (10%) ownership, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see his actual ownership lower. There won’t be a lot of teams that play Allen without a stacking partner plus Barkley, but that might be the best way to capture this game’s points. My favorite way to stack this game is Allen + Cook + Barkley. Any lineup that uses most of its salary on those players is going to be highly unique. 

Key Values

Michael Carter ($5,200)

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 17 Topics

1. Calm Before The Storm

2. Block Party

3. Value Plays

4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. Calm Before The Storm

The Question ::

Usually our first question focuses on “what is unique about this slate?”, but this week the answer to that question is relatively apparent and all of our answers will likely look the same if I simply ask that usual canned question, so let me set the table for us a bit::

This week’s 9-game main slate is the smallest of the season and we have a wild mess of uncertainty around teams on both ends of the spectrum – those who have a lot to play for in terms of playoff position and seeding, those whose spot is clinched but have a small range of outcomes for where they can be seeded, and teams whose seasons are done and may be considering benching players or taking a long-term (wink, wink) approach to what the best outcome for them this week is.

With all of that on the table, the question becomes what do you make of it all and does it shape your approach to the slate in terms of player selection and/or the contests you think are best to target?

The Answers ::

JM >>

Oh, man! If last week did anything for me, it reminded me of how sharp the slope of uncertainty can be at this point in the season. The toughest thing? Most of the uncertainty we deal with at this point in the season is difficult to forecast. Teams that looked like they were giving full effort last week might look checked-out this week. More confusingly, teams that looked checked-out last week might look engaged once again this week. On top of this, a lot of playoff spots are locked up already, with seeding the only thing left to play for. Is this seeding important to these teams? Will James Cook see his workload lightened? Will the Steelers attack in their normal manner if Baltimore loses on Saturday, or will we see some subtle changes?

My typical approach this deep into the season is to lean a bit more heavily into spots where I feel we have some actual certainty — spots where teams have something serious to play for, or where we have a team that’s been out of it for a while, and we can therefore feel confident about what we’ll continue to see from them. But last week felt like a reminder that even when we think we know things, there are things we don’t know.

With all that, I do want to lean into higher-certainty spots as much as I can…but I also want to acknowledge that uncertainty has a more featured role in the slate at this point in the season, and that we should be a bit more willing than normal to embrace variance and invite uncertainty onto our builds.

Xandamere >>

Oh boy. The end of the season gets into dangerous territory around the assumption of rational coaching – that is, we tend to think we know what’s best for a team to do in terms of who and how they should play and build accordingly…and then often end up frustrated because the team doesn’t do what we want them to do. Motivation is a tricky thing in the NFL, because players play to win when they’re out there. So, I don’t tend to put a ton of stock into it, except in the very last week of the season when we see teams outright rest players – prior to that, it’s really pretty darn rare to see teams significantly change their game plans based on playoff standings. 

To be clear, it certainly CAN happen. I think where we’re likeliest to see it is with injured guys – they’re less likely to play through questionable tags, or to get their full workload if they do play, if the team has nothing to play for in terms of playoff outcomes. Outside of that, I think I’m personally looking more towards next week for more motivation-based tournament strategy (and oh boy I’m sure we’ll all write a lot about it then). 

Here’s what I do think about this slate, though: it’s less about who we’re NOT playing and more about who we ARE playing (and guess what, this is our task every single week). And when it comes to who we ARE playing, there just aren’t a lot of really strong spots on this small slate – only 4 teams have team totals of 25+ points! And it’s not that we can only play guys from teams with 25+ totals, but overall this is just a low total slate and that significantly condenses the player pool that I personally want to be investing in.

Hilow >>

Yea, that pretty succinctly summarizes what this slate is telling us. We have almost zero certainty outside of the Arizona-Cincinnati game, there aren’t many (any?) running backs that carry elite cost-considered ranges of outcomes, and the quarterback position is a hot mess. Those variables come together to have me almost entirely focused on game environment bets as a way of capturing bulk ceiling, with a heavy emphasis on game over-stacks.

We like the Cardinals and Bengals… over-stack them. We like the Jaguars but aren’t sure where the production is likeliest to come from… over-stack them. We like the pass volume in New Orleans… over-stack them. We like the reduction in primary targets in New England… play them together. We like the concentration of expected offensive volume from the Raiders in a solid matchup… stack them up!

Mike >>

My answer to this question can basically be seen within the second question…..targeting the spots where teams could score a LOT of points. The Bengals, Jaguars, and Patriots all stand out to me as potential spots for that to happen and while I don’t necessarily think all of them will go wild, I do think that at least one of them posts the kind of offensive day that you need to have and on a smaller slate like this multiple pieces probably makes sense.

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2. Block Party

The Question ::

Earlier this season I asked this question when we had smaller slates as well. This week with only nine games and questions around the offensive environments in many of those spots (only six teams with implied team totals of 23 or higher), there is a good chance of multiple GPP-winning scores coming from the same offense and the quarterback may or may not need to be a part of it. 

In that spirit, the question becomes what are some teams that you would be interested in playing multiple players from the same offense without the quarterback in a “Player Block” that can position your roster in a spot to benefit from being on the right spot at the right time?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

We’re officially in the “expect the unexpected” weeks of the NFL regular season. In a week like this, one of the last feelings I want to pursue is to feel comfortable about the slate ahead. Instead, we should all share the expectation that things could get nutty this week, with only Weeks 1 and 18 possibly giving this Week 17 a close competition for craziness. This opening may sound more like a coming reflection piece on the previous week’s of games, but it’s the only thought I had when starting to write this penultimate Willing to Lose. As we strategize and maneuver our brains into building winning lineups this Sunday, we should be working more and more away from what is logical.

Week 17 overview

The overview of this slate comes a bit late for most of us after the mid-week holiday, so I’ll admit to being a bit in catch-up mode, but I think it’s all for the better. This is NOT a week for overthinking. It’s not a week for logic, nor is it a slate that leads toward comfort. With just nine total games on this main slate, and two late window matchups, plus sixteen weeks of data to look at, and only four teams projecting for over 25 points, this slate shows as both boring and attractive all at once. Projected ownership shouldn’t matter much to anyone, but with only a few games jumping off the page in terms of expected shootouts, it will make predicting where ownership congregates just a bit easier this week. The Bengals, Patriots, and Jaguars are our guilty parties: three offenses expected to have little resistance applied, and we can throw the Seahawks in this conversation, too. Building lineups centered around these offenses seems to make sense, albeit in a different way in large-field GPPs, and then additional scenarios that don’t anchor on a “top” team are also always viable. It should be a weird week, but we also know by now how to get unique without sacrificing upside.

Saints Block (Shough, Olave, Juwan, Taysom) + Chase’ing Bengals

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

one week stats will not be available Week 17 and 18, but you can still grab information at statrankings.com

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

Strategy for Underdog’s “The Gauntlet” & “The Mitten”

(Updated 1/6/2025)

Overview 

• Six-player snake draft comprised of ten rounds in a Best Ball tournament format.
• Teams are made up of 10 total players with a starting lineup of five players: 1 QB, 2 WR/TE, 1 RB, and 1 Flex.
• Advancement rates vary by contest:
  • The Gauntlet: four-round structure through the Super Bowl, with the top team advancing out of a group of six in the first round, followed by one team advancing out of a group of six in the second round, and then one out of a group of five in the third round. The finals are composed of 500 teams in the Super Bowl with $500,000 up top. 
  • The Mitten’s advancement is easier in round one (top two of six advance), but then more difficult in the second round (1 of 10) and the conference championships round (also 1 of 10), before a 375-team Super Bowl.

• Getting out of the first round is crucial, but difficult if drafting four or more players from bye teams (as of this writing, the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos) in a 1 of 6 advance structure like The Gauntlet.
• Like a Milly Maker on DK, the payout structure is extremely top heavy. 

• The last two bullets bring up an interesting dilemma as the two bye teams are the most likely to make the conference final and Super Bowl, but drafting several of those players also hampers your chances of getting out of the first round. 

• To win, you will likely need (at least) five players to reach the Super Bowl. This incentivizes stacking your lineups to consolidate around a few teams you are hoping can make deep playoff runs; however, an aggressive stacking strategy has its trade-offs. If you prioritize stacking elite contenders, this will likely have you drafting some poorly projected depth players to round out your team. Someone in your first pod/round will likely have drafted studs on Wild Card teams, and while they will have an uphill battle to win the whole tournament, these teams will have a leg up on getting out of the first round.
• If you consider stacking both bye teams, you must cap that at a total of 5 players, and you are fighting an uphill battle to advance. The tournament is very top-heavy, and the two one-seeds are the most likely to advance, so we will discuss below some of the strategies to best balance this predicament and try to thread a very thin needle to advance a team to the final 300ish teams.

Roster Composition

Stacking is critical as you want to try to set yourself up to build around multiple teams (ideally 3-4 total) with at least one team from each conference. You also want to keep in mind the story you are telling with your build. If your roster is built around two #2 seeds (aka two non-bye teams) making the Super Bowl, you’ll want to keep in mind that if that happens, there will likely be rosters with 7-8 active players (or potentially more) in the finals. As mentioned above, the contests are top-heavy, so a roster with only 4-5 live/active players will be at a severe disadvantage and likely blocked out for first in a situation like this.

Quarterback Strategy

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Afternoon Only slate is only two games due to the NFL putting three games on Christmas and two games on Saturday. Because of this, there will NOT be an Afternoon Only article. For me, a two game slate that is also a part of the main slate doesn’t provide as much appeal because in large field tournaments, you are likely to end up either splitting with a bunch of people or playing some really thin options. Just not quite the same dynamic and so many slates on the week, so my focus will be elsewhere. Feel free to hit me up in the Discord if you have questions on the slate, but the article won’t be in The Scroll for Week 17. Don’t worry, though. Week 18 is our best Afternoon slate of the season and we will be roaring back for that one. -Mike

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Quarterback ::

• Joe Burrow – Elite game environment and Burrow is absolutely dealing right now. Expect the Bengals to try to send him out on a good note over these last two weeks after a tough season that has had him questioning things.
• Trevor Lawrence – The hottest QB in the game has a plus matchup with the Colts struggling defense in a dome. All of his pass catchers have modest salaries which makes Jaguars stacks very appealing.
• Tyler Shough – Tennessee operates as a pass funnel defense and the Saints threw 50 passes last week against the Jets despite leading all game. Expect Shough to be busy again.

Running Back::

• Ashton Jeanty – Elite talent facing the worst run defense in football with basically guaranteed massive volume.
• Travis Etienne Jr. – One of the best backs in the league in recent weeks has an elite role in a high leverage game against a struggling defense.
• Rhamondre Stevenson – If TreVeyon Henderson plays in this game, I would expect his role to be very limited coming off a concussion especially once the Patriots take control. Basically Stevenson is a smash if Henderson is out, and is an elite GPP option if Henderson plays.
• Saquon Barkley – The Bills have been gashed on the ground this season and Barkley has quietly been heating up in recent weeks, with two of his best games over the last three weeks.
• Chase Brown – Follow the points!! The Bengals should score a lot of points this week and Brown showed last week why everyone drafted him in the second round in August. Elite role, matchup, and game environment.
• Bucky Irving – Talented player in a strong matchup. Salary has dropped to reflect the workload concerns, but Bucky has 30-point upside in this spot where we expect the Bucs to score a lot.

Wide Receiver ::

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on FanDuel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on FanDuel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before they added bonuses for yardage totals, but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance, and since they carry so much weight on FanDuel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected, as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Joe Burrow + Chase Brown + Tee Higgins + Michael Wilson

Tony focuses his DFS play on FanDuel single-entry and 3-max contests. He thrives in unique formats and positional twists, always looking for hidden edges that others overlook

This article is designed to complement Mike’s weekly Fanduel Player Grid and other OWS Fanduel scroll content by giving you my view on the slate from my perspective as a Fanduel player who focuses on smaller-field, SE/3-max types of tournaments. My usual process is to build a handful of unique lineups for these types of contests each slate and a majority of my weekly DFS bankroll is dedicated to them.

As you will see as you go through the article, based on the week at hand, I find what I think is the critical starting point I want to use for my rosters. This could be a certain game environment, a specific position or positional dynamics, extreme chalk pieces, or low-owned stacks that I am interested in. Each week is unique, so the “Starting Point” for each week will be dynamic and the rest of my thoughts will build from there, helping you see how I am building my lineups and allowing you to form your own thoughts.

Starting Point

• With this week’s holiday schedule, the FD main slate this week offers an unusually small batch of just nine games to build from. There will be seven early kickoffs and only two games starting in the later window. While the games could certainly entertain, it feels somewhat anticlimactic for a Week 17 slate with only three actual NFL playoff spots still up for grabs, two of which could be settled by the end of the Saturday 2-game slate:
  • AFC North winner (PIT has a 2-game lead, BAL plays on Saturday)
  • Final AFC Wild Card spot (HOU has a 2-game lead and plays on Saturday)
  • NFC South winner (CAR has a one game lead over TB)
• There are only three implied team totals higher than 25 points on the entire main slate:
  • Bengals (30.0) vs AZ – best overall game environment on the slate (53.5 implied total)
  • Patriots (28.25) at NYJ – Pats need to win to stay ahead of the Bills and to keep pace with the Broncos
  • Jaguars (27.25) at IND – Currently a game ahead of the Texans, pending Houston’s result on Saturday at LAC
• All three teams’ key players should be in consideration while building FD lineups this week, but the Patriots players specifically are the key for me to consider on this slate, and the starting point for me key SE/3-Max team builds this week:
• In the New England RB room, TreVeyon Henderson ($7,000) has a questionable tag, and Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,400) has an affordable price tag, whether Hendo plays or sits. I’ll be using Henderson if he plays and believe Stevenson is playable in either scenario (chalky solo or lower-owned as part of a platoon).
• WRs Kayshon Boutte and Mack Hollins have each been ruled out. Stefon Diggs ($6,500) and TE Hunter Henry ($5,500) should be among the most-rostered players at their respective positions, while Kyle Williams ($4,600) will be one of the most popular punt-priced options, at any position, this week. Demario Douglas ($5,300) doesn’t have the most FD-friendly skillset, but should maintain his role in 3-WR sets.
• Targeting the Jets and Brady Cook with the Patriots ($5,000) is my favorite D/ST play of the week.
• All of the Pats’ skill position options are affordable, almost all will be popular, and each can make for a comfortable stacking partner with Drake Maye ($8,400). I plan to play a Maye lineup with multiple pass catchers and another with an NE RB and a pass catcher, but will be mindful of adding at least one more unique piece or mini-correlation around them. Using Pats as one-off plays or two-player blocks goes a long way in helping to afford stacking the more premium-priced Bengals and Jaguars offenses, too.

Running Back Approach