Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.
OWS Fam!!!
Things change, but some things stay the same. Writing the Angles email for two seasons, I often look back at past weeks for inspiration. This week, it hit meāWeek 4 is evergreen.
If you donāt believe me, hereās a little excerpt from the Angles email in Week 4 of 2024:
Welcome to Week 4. The first official week of the NFL season where we have a representative sample of data to draw from to inform our predictions. Itās a glorious thing.
While there is plenty of season to go and we donāt know yet what to make of most of the teams, three weeks of data can provide actionable insights, which minimizes the unknowns and reduces the variability of our predictions.
Said another way, weāre building lineups with less āguess-workā involved, starting this week. You rarely want to draw a one-game prediction from a seasons-worth of games, and you equally wonāt feel great about making a one-game prediction based on just one game. Three to four games is the sweet spot, which makes Week 4 so appealing to me.
With this piece of information, youād think my next sentence would be something along the lines of “trust the data this week,” and it is sort of along those lines, but not exactly. Iāll explain.
Iāve read about, and often written about, how itās lazy to use the past to predict the future. And it is, because the cause and effect of the variables that produced past outcomes were different, and therefore not the same as what weāre analyzing for the future.
Word for word, not a lie was told. This is the week in the NFL season where things take a turn out of the preseason hype/early season flukes and into the sustained success from real roles, real performances, and real strategies. Money will be made in the next few weeks for those sharp enough to see it.
This is the week to go with what youāve seen and prepare for what you havenāt seen (but know you will at some point; i.e., regression!).
DFS Week Pass: Got a Dollar?
In case you have been waiting for an invitation to jump into a DFS package with OWS, wait no more. OWS is making the DFS content this week available for $1 (normally $29).
While Iād love it personally if you kept reading, I wonāt take it personally if you open a new tab right now to make this happen.
Hereās what that dollar will get you this week:
- All DFS+ Interpretations
- All Showdowns
- All Ownership and Projections
- JMās Journal
- JMās Player Grid
- Willing to Lose (hey, I know that author!)
- Mikeās DK Player Grid
- Mikeās FD Player Grid
- End Around
- Papyās Pieces
- Sonicās MME Pool
Iām not sure what that per word cost looks like, but letās just say this is good ROI.
Okay, back to Week 4ā¦
Week 4: The Week Where Everyone Acts Like They Know Everything
In Week 1, we all admit out loud that we donāt know anything. By Week 2, we say āhey, make sure not to overreact to one-game outcomes!ā Week 3 it starts to come together, and itās all about being early on trends at both team and individual levels. Enter Week 4, where we now are confident we know a lot more, because we have nearly a monthās worth of stats to prove it.
To be clear, weāre all in this together. Iāll come off as overconfident as the next guy this week, but just realize that it is simply that. We could take nearly any advanced stat and mention why it will continue or regress to a longer-term mean and weād be right in both cases. We donāt know what all of these teams will look like in two more games when the calendar hits October, but Week 4 is where weāll start to plan for that.
The Heavy Favorites and the Late Games
As the Angles email is intended to give the highest-level overview of this main slate, letās start with a few filters we can place on this 11-gamer on Sunday: starting with two big, home favorites (Bills and Lions) and then tackling the four late games.
I say this for two reasons. First, the two highest implied totals on the week belong to the Bills and Lions, who both play in the first wave of games on Sunday. Second, because all of the teams projected to score 20 points or less will also lace them up in the early window (Titans, Saints, Browns, Panthers, Giants, Bucs).
If youāre looking to start with game environments, which we always should be, these matchup facts isolate the four late games as the likeliest to be close and potentially shoot out. This isnāt everything, but framing it up in this way is a good starting point.
Bills (31) host the Saints (16.25), who couldnāt quite bring the lumber when they traveled out to Seattle last week. Spencer Rattler still has not won a game in his career (0-9) despite his 4:1 TD:INT ratio this season. You wonāt find a large crowd this week among those willing to stack this game up after the Saints didnāt get off the plane last Sunday, so the question in this matchup is really how will Josh Allen and the Bills score points, not if. Buffalo did struggle at home vs. lowly Miami in a game they should have dominated. If they struggle to pull away from New Orleans this week weāll see some interesting Bills narratives form. The more likely outcome is a vintage Josh Allen performance as these teams settle in a bit more to their expected mid-season form.
Lions (27) host the Browns (17) with both of these teams coming out of emotional victories in Week 3. Detroit was humming on offense for the second week in a row, but as was Green Bay before they endured a stunning loss to Cleveland last week. The Lions’ total seems higher than what weād expect with the way the Browns defense is performing, so at least Vegas thinks Detroit will put up more on the scoreboard than the Packers did. For Cleveland, it feels like this is make or break for Joe Flacco, as he hasnāt looked great to start the season; but, he has kept them competitive, and in his words, has them playing āadult football.”
Colts (23) at Rams (26.5) is one of our late-afternoon delights this week, and this is a matchup that seems to be getting attention in the fantasy football world early on. Angry Rams will be an interesting one to see when you get this talented team coming off a devastating loss against a team they wouldāve loved to beat (Philly). Indianapolis, of course, is undefeated and 3.5-point underdogs. Think that will rile them up?
Jags (22) at 49ers (25) carries a 47 total, which sounds appetizing. Then you remember itās Trevor Lawrence and likely coming-back-from-injury Brock Purdy, and itās a bit of a wet blanket. The offensive minds calling plays are talented here, and assuming the early-week injury woes to certain skill players (Pearsall, BTJ) donāt get worse, the talent on the field could help this erupt. I do remember getting excited for a game like this (Lawrence vs. Purdy) in November 2023 and it went San Francisco 34-3. Just sayingā¦
Baltimore (25.5) at the Chiefs (23) will drive TV ratings but will it drive fantasy results? Lamar is just 1-4 against KC in his career, though he did rush for over 100 yards last season in this same matchup with Derrick Henry flanking him in the backfield. Kansas City hasnāt looked quite right, but maybe the potential return of Xavier Worthy steadies the offensive roles a bit. One thing is certain, the Ravens will want to wash out the Detroit loss on MNF out as quickly as possible.
Finally, the Bears (23.75) and the Raiders (23.75) will play in Las Vegas as the other late-afternoon game. Ownership could stay modest here but we saw last week the Chicago offense finally get a matchup they can win with Dallasā defense, so itās fair to wonder how they will do against a similarly inept Raiders group. Geno Smith, on the other hand, enjoyed garbage time last week in Washington but hasn’t shown much consistency yet. New team, new HC, new OC, and hobbled stud tight end could all be contributing. Could this be the week he gets right?
You have to start somewhere, and these four games plus the Bills and Lions seem to be where points will come from. There are always going to be more angles to play, and some other notable matchups will include the Chargers // Giants, Commanders // Falcons, and Eagles // Buccaneers.
Start where you want, but use this seasonās data and stay humble about predictions.
And go get your one-week DFS pass to help craft your vision for the week.
Weāll all be excited to see you at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday!
~Larejo
