Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Personnel Changes ::
Schedule ::
Bull Case ::
Justin Herbert is one of the top pure passers in the league today, and any team with a top quarterback is going to remain relevant. Beyond that, the Chargers appear to be heading into the new season with an extremely concentrated offense through the air, which is likeliest to add additional upside to the profiles of Ladd McConkey and rookie Tre Harris. Several key defenders departed in free agency this season as well (Joey Bosa being the biggest name there), something that could result in the Chargers allowing more points to be scored against them (second-ranked 18.5 points allowed per game in 2024), which could result in them being forced into increased aggression on the offensive side of the football in 2025. Finally, the Chargers drew an interesting schedule that mixes softer matchups (AFC South) and potential shootout environments (divisional games, NFC East, Vikings, and Dolphins).
Bear Case ::
The Chargers finished the 2024 season at 11-6 but beat only one playoff team all season (the Broncos, twice) and bowed out of the postseason in the Wild Card Round with a disgusting loss to the Texans. They largely handled business against teams they were supposed to but also largely fell flat against solid competition. The loss of three primary contributors on defense, one of which is one of the better EDGE players in the game in Bosa, should not be overlooked either. Finally, the team has significant changes on offense after letting two of their starting wide receivers walk in free agency, drafting a rookie, bringing back a receiver who has notoriously struggled with injuries, and completely overhauling their backfield. We can paint a clear picture of how this team could fail in fantasy land this season.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
It remains a possibility that the Chargers re-sign Keenan Allen, although they drafted a wide receiver in the second round in addition to giving away Allen’s number, his longtime No. 13, to undrafted rookie free agent D.J. Uiagalelei. That certainly doesn’t inspire confidence that the team is looking to bring back Allen. As things currently stand, that leave second-year standout McConkey, the veteran Williams, who is about 18 months removed from a torn ACL, and second-round rookie Harris as the likely starters at wide receiver. The team also did little to address depth at tight end with only Conklin and a rookie fifth-rounder joining the mix, likely leaving Will Dissly as the primary pass-catching option at the position. The current situation sets McConkey up well to see immense volume as the primary option through the air, fresh off a 112-target, 82-reception rookie season. All signs point to an improvement on the 1,149 yards he put up a season ago, while the talent of Herbert likely leaves room for his to match or exceed the seven touchdowns he scored in 2024. Consider McConkey a back-end WR1.
The Chargers’ offense struggled a bit in 2024, particularly in the run game. Two underperforming running backs didn’t help the matter, but they will likely need to improve up front to truly turn the corner as a franchise. Tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater form one of the top tackle duos in the league, and the addition of Becton at guard could help shore up the run game on the interior. The team also completely revamped their running backs room with the addition of (Najee) Harris and selection of Hampton in the first round. Hampton profiles as a battering ram with plus speed and elusiveness who is also capable in the pass game. He could develop into a true three-down back in the league, but the presence of Najee likely prohibits that from coming to fruition early in his career. The Chargers played only five games with both J.K. Dobbins and Edwards healthy and on the field together in 2024. In those games, Dobbins, the lead back at the time, played more than 66% of the offensive snaps twice and failed to do so three times. It appears as if the backfield will begin in a timeshare, capping the fantasy value of both backs in the process.
(Tre) Harris profiles as a downfield option for a quarterback that ranked in the top 10 in average intended air yards, fourth in total air yards, and 12th in deep-throw rate (of qualified passers) in 2024. The team also lost its primary downfield threat, and neither Williams or McConkey overlap with that skill set. He is probably my favorite Chargers pass-catcher behind McConkey. Dissly had a massive 30.5% targets per route run rate (fourth) in 2024 but was in a route on only 43.5% of the team’s designed pass plays (31st), highlighting his general lack of elite upside at the position. His 4.6-yard aDOT also leaves a lot to be desired, meaning he is unlikely to carry much weekly upside in a Best Ball format. He is better left off your queue.
The Chargers had just one game in 2024 with a pass rate over expectation (PROE) more than one standard deviation above neutral, with the days of Herbert slinging the rock 600+ times seemingly gone and forgotten. His 504 pass attempts over 17 appearances shake out to 29.6 attempts per game, handcuffing him to back-end QB1/high end QB2 range for fantasy purposes.
