Sunday, Feb 12th — Late
Bye Week:
49ers
Bears
Bengals
Bills
Broncos
Browns
Buccaneers
Cardinals
Chargers
Colts
Commanders
Cowboys
Dolphins
Falcons
Giants
Jaguars
Jets
Lions
Packers
Panthers
Patriots
Raiders
Rams
Ravens
Saints
Seahawks
Steelers
Texans
Titans
Vikings

Xandamere’s Showdown Notes

Jags @ Chiefs
  • Expecting the highest owned captains to be Mahomes and Kelce (McKinnon probably up there too). Interesting opportunity to hedge your full slate exposure, whichever way you lean it, by going the opposite in Showdown (i.e. if you’re heavy Jags on the full slate, build a lot of KC onslaughts in the Showdown, if you’re mostly avoiding Jags on the full slate, go overweight on the main Jacksonville skill position players in Showdown).
  • The best skill position value option per some aggregated projections I make is Evan Engram, who at $5,800 is really not priced for his ceiling. Zay Jones is also a great value, but Kirk may go a bit overlooked at a somewhat awkward price point.
  • Kadarius Toney’s mean outcome is modest, but his ceiling is strong.
  • Juju is going to be pretty low owned for a WR1!
  • Justin Watson is on the field for the bulk of the snaps and won’t garner much ownership.
  • Skyy Moore is likely to be the popular punt option, but he hasn’t played much this year, he’s just back from injury, and he hasn’t been good when active. He feels like a pretty shaky option to me at significant ownership.
  • I would max 2 of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, Justin Watson, and Skyy Moore.
  • I would not play JaMycal Hasty in Etienne-captained lineups.
  • This is applicable to all of these games: there isn’t much in the way of value plays, which is likely to lead to a lot of extra kicker ownership beyond what we normally see. I would personally want to continue to land around the same 16-18% exposure to each kicker that I always target rather than overweight what are likely to be extremely chalky kickers.
Giants @ Eagles
  • A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith are going to be underowned relative to their ceilings
  • On the flip side, the Giants wide receivers are all quite cheap and will garner enormous ownership. Hodgins has the highest ceiling of the group and is the one I would personally most want to be overweight on.
  • Don’t forget about Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott – they will mix in regardless, but especially if Philly stomps, they’ll get some run.
  • This slate has very little value, with Quez Watkins, Gainwell, and Matt Breida as the only real viable skill position players priced below the kickers. Lawrence Cager and Zach Pascal can be included in that bucket as well though they are more desperation punt plays, in my opinion. This will lead people to try and captain studs like Hurts and Saquon and find some punt play, but more mid-range lineups (or lineups captained by guys like Hodgins or Goedert) feel like smart pivots from the stars-and-scrubs constructions.
    • The lack of value is going to contribute to Brown and Smith being underowned – it’s hard to jam them in without a dubious value play. Try to find ways to do so.
  • I would max 1 of Scott and Gainwell, or if you’re willing to embrace more variance, max 2 of Sanders, Scott, and Gainwell
  • Max 1 of Bellinger and Cager
  • Max 1 of Watkins and Pascal
  • No Breida in Saquon-captained lineups
  • This is applicable to all of these games: there isn’t much in the way of value plays, which is likely to lead to a lot of extra kicker ownership beyond what we normally see. I would personally want to continue to land around the same 16-18% exposure to each kicker that I always target rather than overweight what are likely to be extremely chalky kickers.
Bengals @ Bills
  • The big questions on this one are around the usage between Devin Singletary and James Cook, and the split between Isaiah McKenzie, Cole Beasley, and Khalil Shakir. I feel pretty good that Cook is on the (slightly) larger end of an RB timeshare, but I really have no idea how the WR situation shakes out other than it’s probably McKenzie or Beasley as the main WR3, not Shakir (unless one of the perimeter WRs happens to get hurt, in which case Shakir is the most logical fill-in with John Brown sent down to the practice squad).
  • Gabe Davis is way too cheap for his ceiling. But, his floor is shaky, and he’ll be very popular.
  • James Cook is going to be super popular at his price. Devin Singletary is likely to be quite low owned as a result. What if Singletary is the one to find the end zone?
  • Once again we don’t have much in the way of value outside of thin plays like Beasley and Shakir, who come with highly uncertain playing time. This will drive ownership to mid-range plays like Hayden Hurst, Tyler Boyd, Dawson Knox, Davis, and Cook. Davis is the best of those (at massive ownership), Cook is next (at likely also high ownership). Boyd feels like he’s going to go a bit overlooked here.
  • Chase > Diggs. At least overall. But in a one game sample, who the hell knows.
  • It feels gross but don’t ignore the Bengals D as a value play. Josh Allen can get careless with the ball, and a random blocked punt or whatever other type of turnover can be all they need to be the best value play on the slate at just $3,200.
  • Singletary and Cook are cheap enough to be played together, but I would not play all 3 of Allen, Singletary, and Cook unless building 5-1 Bills onslaughts.
  • Same rule for Burrow, Mixon, and Perine
  • Max 1 of McKenzie, Beasley, and Shakir
  • This is applicable to all of these games: there isn’t much in the way of value plays, which is likely to lead to a lot of extra kicker ownership beyond what we normally see. I would personally want to continue to land around the same 16-18% exposure to each kicker that I always target rather than overweight what are likely to be extremely chalky kickers.
Cowboys @ 49ers
  • CMC’s a badass. Duh. He’s going to be massively owned. Consider Lamb as a slightly lower owned pivot at the high end.
  • Kittle is likely to be low owned here at his price but man his usage when the 49ers are fully healthy (especially when Deebo is active) is just awful. He’s a super high-variance tourney option.
  • Elijah Mitchell is a great value option all around, but especially so in lineups build around the 49ers winning by a lot (and as such he correlates well with the SF defense).
  • Ezekiel Elliott is $6,200 but still projects poorly and is likely to be quite low owned. Oh how the mighty have fallen.
  • Tony Pollard, on the other hand, has one of the highest ceilings on the slate and is a great tourney play (but I kind of think he’s better on the full slate where he’s going to be even less owned).
  • Dalton Schultz looks likely to be an extremely popular midrange play, but I can’t really poke any holes in the case for him beyond “football is weird sometimes.” He’s a really strong play.
  • Michael Gallup has a surprisingly big red zone role this season and at $5,000, if he gets a touchdown he’s probably in the optimal lineup.
  • T.Y. Hilton appears to be really eating into Noah Brown’s role. At similar prices, I think I’d actually prefer Hilton here, at what I expect will be a bit lower ownership.
  • Jake Ferguson tends to play more when Dallas is facing teams with strong pass rushes. The 49ers have a strong pass rush. Ferguson is thin but he’s a non-crazy punt option. 
  • Max 2 of Dak, Pollard, and Zeke
  • Max 1 of Hilton and Brown
  • This is applicable to all of these games: there isn’t much in the way of value plays, which is likely to lead to a lot of extra kicker ownership beyond what we normally see. I would personally want to continue to land around the same 16-18% exposure to each kicker that I always target rather than overweight what are likely to be extremely chalky kickers.