Thursday, Nov 30th
Bye Week:

Willing To Lose Sunday WC.21.

When we add one more game in a slate, from two to three, it’s fascinating how much it can change strategy. Leaving salary on the board in a two-game slate makes a lot of sense, but in a three-gamer, I don’t see that as viable. As the OWS team notes here, a 50% increase in the player pool, especially with these offenses and the talent at WR, we’re going to need those dollars. 

Quick strategy notes for this three-gamer: one easy way to be contrarian is a three running back build. With pass-heavy and running back by committee teams on the slate, this build is actually hard to pull off. I won’t be going here with my three lineups but a build of Leonard Fournette, Darrel Williams, and Najee Harris, for instance, will be very unique. The second piece I will mention here is how loaded the middle game of SF and DAL is compared to the other two games. We’ll see a majority of the field coming in here, and for good reason with the tighter spread, but an over-stack on either Eagles/Bucs or Steelers/Chiefs is another contrarian kick-start. 

But, where can we be a bit smarter about building our rare teams?

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Stacking Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski with Tom Brady

Start your lineups on Sunday with the clear top-two targets for the fourth or fifth-highest overall owned QB, on a pass-heavy team. And the icing on the cake here is the immediate leverage we get with exposure to Bucs touchdowns without rostering Leonard Fournette. This stack is more viable if the weather report looks good, and it’s equally viable if/when Fournette is actually ruled in and playing. If Playoff Lenny is ruled out, expect ownership on Brady to increase with the Bucs more expected to go extreme pass-heavy, but more importantly, we lose most of the leverage here on herd rosters (looks like ½ of rosters expected to play Lenny) with this Bucs stack. When it gets to the playoffs, at times, we can get caught up in the narrative of the moment, which right now is ‘the Bucs don’t look right.’ But in any other game this season, if the Bucs were down both Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, think of how high the ownership would be on Evans and Gronk. I know there’s the fact the Eagles have allowed the second-fewest points to WRs this season, and Evans has a Darius Slay matchup on tap Sunday, but he’s still a beast in the red zone and should be used in a high priority role. Gronk has his chemistry with Tom, reliance in the red zone, and an ability to burn Eagles linebackers, which are one of the clear weaknesses in their defense for years. Again, check the weather and Fournette’s status but this is an easy one.

Jalen Hurts (that’s it, that’s the header)

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