Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries
Has anyone else ever been building a roster, almost clicking on a player’s name and saying to themself, “that’s what the old me would have done” and then move on to the next, better play? That’s growth as a DFS player. I do this all the time, for the record. It doesn’t so much matter how much profit you’ve made in your “new” phase, because if you feel like you can see first-hand how your decision-making is changing, then you are progressing. And it’s always on your metric, not someone else’s. I would also argue that if/when you are growing, that is when you should feel like your next big win is right around the corner. Noticing first the change in your decision-making precedes the big win. It should because, in a new phase, you’ll need to sharpen those decisions too. It’s an evolving game we all play, and we love it because of the challenges it presents us. And because we can make life-changing money while doing it!
I’ll lead into the plays this week by saying my intent is to get weird this week. Not weird in the way where we’re going to play Jets stacks, the Texans defense, or two cheap tight ends not named Tommy Sweeney. But weird in a way where we can all but guarantee we’re hitting low-owned plays with a higher likelihood of producing a tournament-winning score than ownership would indicate. If we can achieve this, we’ll feel irrationally confident about our rosters at roster lock, regardless of outcome, which is a feeling we should all be playing for.
Well, I have to stay on brand! Many people will focus on the Bengals offense this week. But, as is the case in many expected lopsided games, we should have many rosters using the Bengals as one-off floating plays. As of late Thursday, expected ownership looks to be gathering heavily around the underpriced Tee Higgins, then Joe Mixon around 10% with the thriving combination of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase seeing single digits. If we are seeing ownership this low, we can all but guarantee their collective ownership will be rare.
There is no reason (even considering price) that Higgins should be getting 3X the ownership of Chase. There’s an amazing tweet of just how easily Chase gets open found here. I encourage you all to watch it. The reality is he is for real, and he’s about to have his easiest matchup of the season with the Jets. We can tell a similar story for Burrow. What if Mac Jones had thrown four touchdowns last week (he threw two), instead of the Patriots running four TD’s on the ground? That would have all but guaranteed Burrow carrying much more ownership this week. The Jets defense is equally vulnerable through the air and on the ground. There should not be much resistance all around, no matter what the Bengals do. Their implied team total is 26.75, but I see no reason why they can’t get to 30 points. If they get to 35 (five touchdowns), this three-man combination (while expensive) gets you access to all of their scores.
If we want to spend on this three-man Bengals block, we’re looking at $21.5K on DraftKings, leaving us with $4,750 per player for the rest of our lineup. We will need to go hunting for cheap upside. And if we get this tributary to play out, coming back with a cheap Jets piece with upside brings me to Elijah Moore. What the Jets are doing on offense right now is not working. Moore represents one of their few game-breaking talents, who last week showcased his speed on a 19-yard end-around he took in for a touchdown. At his price, coming off 57% of the offensive snaps, he’s mostly game script-proof, as the Jets should leave him out there to get reps if the score gets out of hand. He also should have better chemistry than the veteran Jets wideouts with backup QB Mike White, who will be starting this game. Add to all of this a new Corey Davis injury that popped up on Thursday, and it’s possible Moore is a larger part of the Jets game plan this week. At only $3,900 on DK, he adds much needed flexibility to a Bengals overstack.
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