Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries
Too hot, too cold, and just right. It’s Week 6 in the NFL season and I can say I’ve experienced each of these types of weeks through the first five main slates so far. Even if my “just right” might be slightly different than how you would define it.
What is a lineup that is “just right” in DFS? Is it a tournament takedown? Is it giving yourself a chance to finish in the top 1% of a tournament before luck takes over? Is it finishing dead last in any GPP? I’ll argue it’s all three of these outcomes, at least it is for me. Too hot can be when we enter a GPP and we have a lineup that is duped (I’ll give up on DFS if that ever happens to me), and too cold is when we strayed WAY too far from the herd in order to build extremely low likelihood rosters. We always want to be in the just right state – embracing variance, being different in OUR own unique ways, and creating just the right combinations of off-the-radar plays coupled with some likely chalkier matchups. This is just right.
When you enter lineups this Sunday, ask yourself, what you are doing differently than the field. Are you accepting this is Rhamondre Stevenson’s week and building around Buffalo and Kansas City? If you are, where are you finding cheap values and how thin are those players going to be? Are you ignoring the Eno Benjamins and Kenneth Walkers who provide salary relief in projected workhorse roles because paying up at running back will be different yet again this week? What about Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson? Can we fade them? And the same for Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews? DFS is hard. It should be. There are always going to be infinite questions around how we build. I will tell you what the answer to how you can successfully be different than the field will be this week . . . do not say no to all of these questions. There is a reason chalk is chalk. A reason Vegas stamps over/unders on games. A reason why value running backs complement a DFS lineup so well. Don’t be too cold and ignore all of these. Don’t be too hot and embrace all of these (not possible, but you catch my drift). Try to be just right by being unique, accepting risk, and if things break your way, maximizing your profit in the process.