This is a very difficult week to break down. We have some decently high implied totals across the board but with only ten games to choose from, and how putrid some offenses have looked recently, it’s slim out there. I am planting my flag this week and stating I will lose money if the Chiefs and Washington game hits the over. I am having a very hard time moving past the Patrick Mahomes vs. Taylor Heinicke matchup, in all honesty. I think the Chiefs can do what they want with this attackable Washington secondary, and without Logan Thomas, McLaurin should be bracketed all game leading to dump-offs to the RB’s and Heinicke scrambles. The lack of practice time for Tyreek Hill is also an added factor, contributing to my only taking a few pieces from this game. Beyond this one, as JM mentioned in The Oracle, we must go hunting for upside, for low-owned players, or games with the potential for separator scores. Ideally, these plays also carry a decent floor where we set ourselves up to be in the mix with an expected outcome, and leading the pack should a tributary arrive.
To think differently from the field, let’s try to get uncomfortable. I hope you feel unsure when you read some of these plays below.
Matthew Stafford (341/3), Joe Burrow (3 INTs, behind terrible O-line), Baker Mayfield (Cleveland trounced the Bears), Jared Goff (299 yards, 3 TDs, two horrific fumbles), and Derek Carr (209/0). Those are the QBs the Bears have faced this season, along with some results and color commentary. Stafford dominated them, Baker did too but didn’t need to run up the score, and Goff would have crossed the 300 yard threshold and had a very useful game if he didn’t have his patented turnovers. After last week’s domination of the Raiders, the Bears defense is getting a lot of respect.
Enter Aaron Rodgers. What does he have in common with the quarterbacks above? He falls into the same category as Stafford and Baker, he has a good offensive line. So although the Packers may not need to push the scoreboard this week, as it’s unlikely Justin Fields can score three touchdowns, it may not matter. Rodgers’ season high of pass attempts came last week against the Bengals (39) and he provided 344 yards and 2 TDs. He is 20-5 in his career against Chicago and threw four touchdown passes in both meetings last season. He owns these guys. His current ownership projection is under 2%.
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