Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries
I’m writing this column a day earlier than typical this week. This is good because the words that follow should reflect no overthinking whatsoever. We often talk about how our early week instincts can be some of our best because they are clear, non-cloudy, unbiased opinions (typically) of a given slate, game, or specific players. Clear thinking leads to unique thinking. Our instincts are inherently us, whether we can control them or not, and if we can put them into context here, these initial thoughts and reactions can be some of our best.
The DFS industry has ballooned in the last five to seven years. The edges available in the early days (call it pre-2016) have evolved. The edges we all strive to achieve now are micro in nature, and yet it’s those micro edges we constantly strive to stack on top of each other and be infused with a little bit of luck to have ourselves a day on any given slate. And with this explosion of interest has come an explosion of content, data, and opinions. You have to have some real perseverance to spend the time and sift through the relevant and irrelevant information thrown your way. It’s important to recognize most of this as noise, not signal. But when you start to see data from what feels like all the angles, the best thing to do is to come back to your center. Your early week thoughts.
Instincts can guide us this week. Remember, your first thoughts are likely similar to others, so react as you may but assess how valid or likely those outcomes are, then also remember the name of the game in DFS is to build lineups to score more points than our competitors. Step out of your zone, be your own builder this week, and be willing to lose (as always!) . . .
Two of the lowest approval rating starting quarterbacks in the NFL right now (outside of Zach Wilson) get a matchup with one another to see who can spend the next six days without criticism. This game draws me in more than I thought it would, when like many others, I laughed at the fact that the Broncos just lost by 50 points on Sunday and are now favored by Vegas to win their next game. While neither Fields nor Wilson has given us much to indicate they will still have their starting jobs two weeks from now, they both possess single game upside worth considering in large field play in the right matchup.
Is defense going to be optional in this game? The Broncos rank dead last in the NFL in pressure rate at just 10.8%, while the Bears rank third-worst at 16.7%. Safe to say we should have two mostly clean pockets for both quarterbacks in this game. On the Bears side, they have a league low blitz rate meaning they will keep the defenders back and force Wilson to throw it to beat them. On the Broncos side, the defense is giving up an average of 7.2 yards per play, the worst in the league. And after what the Dolphins did to them last week, is there any coming back from that?
With Wilson, a simple stack with Jeudy and Sutton seems like the obvious route to go, with a lean toward Sutton as he has a slightly better matchup against a zone-heavy defense. Marvin Mims, of course, could be added as well. With Fields, we can lean on him by himself, or with a running back and DJ Moore. I’ll likely go with Khalil Herbert, Moore, and Fields.
