Thursday, Dec 8th
Bye Week:
Saints
Colts
Commanders
Packers
Bears
Falcons

Willing To Lose 4.21.

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

How do you win a GPP? There’s no right answer to that question. Being honest with ourselves is important, and the honest truth is there’s no real answer to that question. It changes week to week, game to game, slate to slate. Does that mean your mindset should change with each changing slate? No, because that would be ludicrous. But think about the fact that “how to win a GPP” literally changes with every slate yet we are working toward training our minds to have a consistent process. Just think through that for a minute. Where does that leave us? It puts us in a place where nothing is “always” or “never,” and each and every week we start with a blank canvas when we build our rosters. What worked last week could work again this week, or it could not, and the opposites could also be true. But I implore all of you to just consider we need to have an open mind on each and every slate. Be open to new ideas. Be open to new players. Be open to players who have jaded you in the past (ahem, Falcons).

DFS Advice

OWS put out a question on Twitter earlier this week on the greatest piece of DFS advice you’ve received. The replies there are phenomenal. I resonate with Mike Johnson’s response of the “best way to be contrarian is to think for yourself,” and also the great Ricky Bobby’s quote, “‘if you’re not first, you’re last.” I also love this line I read one time, “you can’t cover every square.” They all relate to me. Think for yourself, build for first place, and have conviction in doing so. Heck, have some false confidence and just expect great results and you may even WILL some rosters up those leaderboards. So, where are we going this week? Oh, I have some thoughts!

Saquon Barkley & Kenny Golladay

Did you miss out last week on Najee Harris? Well, here’s your redemption. Let me explain. In Week 1, we had a situation where the Lions were going up against the 49ers with an implied team total of around 19 points and no talented skill position players outside of D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson (to be fair, they are still in this exact situation). Many feared playing these two in this first game because of the low implied team total. But when there are no better options, game script is thrown out the window and talent rises to the top. Swift went for 23.7 DK points, while Hockenson scored 25.7. Again, neither was very owned, mostly because everyone thought the Lions would stink (and they were right) and they were only anticipated to score two touchdowns and a field goal or two.

Then last week, with top option Diontae Johnson out of the lineup, we saw Harris and Chase Claypool receive 19 and 15 targets each in a negative game script, as the Steelers aired it out 58 times. I mentioned this earlier in the week but Najee was a near lock for me once Diontae was ruled out, as his volume was anticipated to grow in the passing game and he was expected to be on the field every snap. Claypool was aided by JuJu Smith-Schuster’s injury but those two players garnering a majority of the targets could have been something we saw coming.

Fast forward to Week 4, where we have the Giants / Saints and New York will most likely be without both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton. Who is left on the Giants offense? Barkley, Golladay, and a recovering Evan Engram. Last week, Barkley saw 16 carries and 7 targets, while Kenny G had 5 targets of his own. Neither was incredibly high volume, but both should see upticks this week against the Saints. More importantly, Barkley’s healthy again playing his full complement of snaps and Golladay is coming off a 70% snap rate, even with his lingering hip problem. Without Shepard and Slayton, and with their prices sitting at $6,700 (Saquon) and $5,500 (Golladay), a combined 40 points is well within reach based on the expected volume and game plan this week.

Chiefs & Eagles Game Stack (Byron Pringle, Miles Sanders)

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