Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries
I had a poor start to the MLB DFS season in April last year so took a little break from it. In baseball, with games every day and night, the information can be overwhelming, the streaks can be strong, and more importantly, the variance can be a real you know what. So I took some time to not play after the first few weeks of the season.
By mid-May, on the 15th, I had some time to myself to look into the slate and felt like getting back into the fold. Like others, I went to a popular DFS content site I subscribed to and started to read game-by-game breakdowns of the main slate. The poor pitchers were projected to pitch poorly, and the good lineups with the highest implied totals were projected to lead the slate in runs. It all made sense, and I felt armed to build my lineups.
Then, into the games we went, and the highest priced pitcher on the slate, Carlos Rodon, gave up 10 hits and eight earned runs to the St. Louis Cardinals. That wasn’t supposed to happen! I don’t recall if I played any of Rodon, but I do remember seeing the slate unfold and feeling like I got slapped in the face. I spent the time to study the slate, and read through all the content, but then like a real amateur, I simply followed the crowd and built logical lineups.
Logical lineups don’t win GPPs in any sport. Apologies for the digression into baseball here, but I’m willing to guess you’ve shared the same feeling in preparation for an NFL slate. You spend the time, you read the content and feel good about your understanding of the matchups and players you want to build around. And then your lineups bust. What gives?
This quote originally attributed to famed investor Francois Marie-Wojcik, is one of my favorites. We’re all unique. We can all think for ourselves. And yet, we tend to follow the herd. We love and crave groupthink. It makes us feel comfortable, warm, and fuzzy. But it’s when we truly do think in our own minds that we can reach where we want to go.
Said another way and bringing this baby back full circle to Week 3, prepare the right way. You’re already on the right DFS site, but make sure once you consume all of the content and analysis that you are building lineups for you. There’s a benefit in adding our own spin to our own rosters, I’d argue equally as much benefit as you get for actually reading through the analysis of a slate. You won’t win anything if you build like the collective field. But you also won’t win anything by putting in little preparation. Balance those two dynamics and take down a tournament this week.
Week 3 feels like we’re due for rookie running back week. Through two weeks, we’ve seen those rookie wide receivers popping all over the place (Puka, Zay, Tank, JSN, even Mims) as the narrative continues that college football passing offenses are more pro-ready than ever these days. But how about the running backs? Our two studs, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs seem to be protected by their own head coaches thus far, but that hasn’t stopped either from producing social media snippets going viral.
The talent is there for both Gibbs and Bijan. On Gibbs, if we continue to take Lions HC Dan Campbell at his word that he will continue to build his workload each game, then he’s a lock for over 50% of the offensive snaps and likely going to get around a minimum of 15 touches. At home against an improved Falcons defense may require the Lions to get creative with how to get Gibbs the ball in space, but as OC Ben Johnson said this week “Gibbs can do anything.” With David Montgomery now out, and the Lions committed to establishing the run (31st in PROE), this is a spot to take advantage of the talent.
Bijan, similarly, has all the tools but simply needs the volume to keep up. The good news is his mustache-loving, son-of-a-billionaire HC Arthur Smith is also committed to running the football. He will likely still cede goal line work to Tyler Allgeier but Bijan should be featured. I’m making a rule in the Bink Machine to only play these two on rosters together, to continue on the RB vs. RB matchups, and will also play this as part of a Falcons/Lions game overstack.
