Sunday, Feb 12th — Late
Bye Week:
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Broncos
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Willing To Lose 17.22

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

Welcome to Week 17, OWS Fam! There are so many spots to attack on this slate, and with ownership likely to congregate less overall (due to more value with injuries and resting players, and motivated and unmotivated teams), I think it’s appropriate to dive right into the situations we can exploit this week. Keep in mind a few things: don’t chase your tail by changing your play style these last few weeks, always start with your preferred game environments, and remember that fluky outcomes are even more likely in these last few weeks of the regular season.

So where can we win some money this week? Let’s go!

Justin Fields + Khalil Herbert (+Lions)

This 52-point total in the Bears // Lions game is the game of the week, you’ve already read this by now. So the question becomes, do you dive in or avoid it? If you play it, how will you be different? And with the Lions expected point total here of nearly 30 points, we should expect their pieces to be the place where many rosters start.

My anticipated favorite roster build by the field this week is to play Justin Fields with Amon-Ra St. Brown and one of the Lions running backs (likely D’Andre Swift), and then throw in Cole Kmet on the roster since he’s the only comfortable Bear we can pair with Fields. One way we can simply differentiate that while also hoping this game carries rosters is to pair Fields with a running back, hoping for dump-off passes in catchup mode if the Bears trail as expected. We could still pair Fields with a pass catcher like Chase Claypool or Byron Pringle (in lieu of Kmet), but going to the Chicago backfield seems less likely. And in this situation, we have some very conflicting data to stack up against each other. First, there’s Khalil Herbert’s salary at the bare minimum on DK of $4,000. For a running back one week removed from an injury, seeing at least 40% of the snaps and likely 10-15 touches in the best game environment on the slate, $4,000 is simply too cheap. The other factor working in Herbert’s favor is he leads the NFL in yards per carry among running backs this season (5.9), and he gets a matchup with the Lions who boast the 30th-ranked run defense in yards per carry allowed this season. It’s possible David Montgomery handles the load here and reaches his point-per-dollar value, but with Herbert’s price, and unusual pairing with Fields, he provides a high per-touch upside which moves exponentially higher if his points come through the air.

The conflicting stats that have me not overloading on this spot for Khalil: the Lions rank first (least) in receptions allowed and first in receiving yards allowed to running backs this season. Something will give, and this could also be a product of teams throwing and running the ball at will against the Lions defense this season, but it’s notable nonetheless.

The full stack for Fields in this spot is Fields + Herbert + Pringle/Claypool + Amon-Ra and/or DJ Chark.

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