Monday, Nov 28th

Willing To Lose 13.21.

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

Condensity (noun), which means the state of being condensed, or compressed into a narrower compass.

A funny thing happened as I started my research this week. As I was listing out the possible player pools on every team, after I got past the rampant amount of questionable tags, I realized we have a few teams this week who only have three or maybe four viable players to be considered for our rosters on Sunday. The general conversation this week will most likely fall on the massive count of players who will head into Sunday as questionable to suit up. But what stood out to me at first glance were just how thin some of these NFL offenses are this week. Due to injuries, ineffectiveness, or other spread-it-around usage, we can start to take these late-season NFL rosters and identify different, unique ways to play them together to increase our roster floors.

We’ve talked about team stacks in the past on OWS as an underutilized strategy, because there is no correlation between two teams playing in two different games. But what we do is practice a lot of similar, more effective strategies of stacking QB-WR with a bring-back, identifying player blocks, and pairing running backs with their team defenses. These strategies all come from the same kin. They can create ways to maximize floor while not sacrificing upside. But you did not come to this space to read about floor, so let’s proceed with a different approach to this week’s article, trying to identify where we can be the Tampa Bay Rays, trying new strategies which aren’t radically different, but just different enough.

Note: my threshold for cutting off a condensed team is 20 implied Vegas points (Chicago and Atlanta were honorable mentions, but it’s difficult to justify having more than one player from those offenses on our rosters on Sunday)

Condensity Team 1 :: Washington Football Team :: Taylor Heinicke, Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas

Let’s do this together for Washington, and you’ll get the exercise for the remaining teams. In listing out all the possible players we could throw on our rosters from the WFT this week, we have their QB, Antonio Gibson (who will be popular with injury to McKissic), and we can comfortably say Terry McLaurin. We can also consider Logan Thomas if he returns this week, and the fringe play of Curtis Samuel could be on our radars, but with his lack of playing time last week, he’s off. Four guys here, and the fourth is very thin in Logan after his long layoff. If we stacked Heinicke, Gibson, and McLaurin on DK it would cost $18.7K and leave $5.2K remaining per player.

Condensity Team 2 :: Minnesota Vikings :: Kirk Cousins, Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen

The viable plays on Minnesota are obvious and overstated by now. This one would cost much more, but the opportunity for all four players will be there on Sunday against the Lions.

Condensity Team 3 :: Miami Dolphins : Tua Tagovailoa, Myles Gaskin, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki

Miami surprises me, but we could have said the same thing prior to their last game, before Jaylen Waddle had a career game. Their QB (Tua), with their three-down back (Gaskin), plus two pass-catchers (Waddle and Gesicki) will be given the opportunity for volume this week as well, pending the news on Devante Parker returning or not. If he does not return, any three-man stack here is in play, or any of these guys as floating plays.

Condensity Team 4 :: San Francisco 49ers : Jimmy Garoppolo, Elijah Mitchell, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle

SF is down Deebo Samuel this week. We know ownership on Elijah Mitchell and Brandon Aiyuk should be high. It’s important to recognize their implied team total of 24 points and ask how they will get there. More than likely, any big game comes from one or more of these players.

You’ll notice none of the highest-projected scoring offenses were listed above in the Bucs, Rams, or Colts. And the way I’m viewing this is officially upside down. Like others, it’s viable to start these potentially slate-leading teams for where our game or team stacks should come from. But after we do this, the question is where to go next? And one of those places where I will look for either A) a complimentary team stack, or B) floating plays, will be in these high condensity offenses.

Alright enough about condensity Larejo, let’s get to the usual stuff…

Kyler Murray + Cardinals Receiver + Darnell Mooney

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