Sunday, Feb 11th — Late
Bye Week:
Bears
Bengals
Bills
Broncos
Browns
Buccaneers
Cardinals
Chargers
Colts
Commanders
Cowboys
Dolphins
Eagles
Falcons
Giants
Jaguars
Jets
Lions
Packers
Panthers
Patriots
Raiders
Rams
Ravens
Saints
Seahawks
Steelers
Texans
Titans
Vikings

Willing To Lose 1.23

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

“Never underestimate the power of simplicity.”

Simplicity wins in all aspects of life. If you can describe a product or service in a simple way, people will buy it. If you can teach a concept in a simple way, people will apply it. If you can show a process in a simple way, people will follow it.

When we feel like we understand something, we feel empowered to conquer it. Being simple even when all the variables and uncertainty around us are encouraging us to make it complicated, is a winning strategy.

So how can we apply sticking to simplicity when it comes to DFS? Well, there isn’t a more variable week than the first week of the season. We don’t know so much about how the teams will line up, which players will get true usage, and how matchups will dictate outcomes. We have virtually no relevant, recent data to draw from (get out of here preSZN crowd!). This means we will have a tough time identifying trends, isolating patterns, and taking advantage of undervalued strategies. All of this requires taking a leap of faith in building Week 1 lineups that can win first place.

In order to reduce this risk, let’s be simple this week. Let’s break down building our rosters through basic processes and see how we can use what we do know (the very little of it) to put together a tournament winning team. I’ll do my best to help guide you, and if you’re new here, my hope is you’ll take these concepts and strategies and use them in your own way (i.e. where I do mention players, realize they can be substituted out for players who YOU are seeing fit the same molds). At OWS, after all, we are not after the best plays, we’re trying to help you build better lineups than the rest of your competition week in and week out.

Build Simple Lineups

As we look at the Week 1 slate, we see an interesting setup. The one clear game environment where we can dive in with stacks is Miami at the Chargers, but there are many reasons why that game can underwhelm. Beyond this matchup, we have virtually no other games that look ripe for overstacks. Well, there goes my strategy. As we look further, while we are offered four teams implied for 26+ points (Ravens, Seahawks, Chargers, Vikings), all but the Chargers are matched up with inferior opponents who could struggle to keep up (Texans, Rams, Buccaneers). At a macro level, this slate is screaming at us to take what it gives us. This is likely not a heavy game stack slate, but rather rosters should utilize multiple mini-stacks to build for first place.

Correlation is our friend, but Vegas is not. So if you want to keep it simple and lean into the offenses projected to score this week, do that. But if you lean in for that reason, realize that in all but two (!) games, we have one team projected for less than 21 points! With this in mind, I’ll be going mini-stack hunting putting together builds with 3-1, 2-1, and 2-0 player blocks that feature one team but reduce the game environment risk. Here are a few of those spots where I’ll be Willing to Lose on Sunday . . . 

Jalen Hurts + AJ Brown + Dallas Goedert + Kendrick Bourne

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