XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 8 and we’re just about halfway through the season already. We have the Vikings visiting the Chargers for a 44.5 total game with Los Angeles favored by 3. J.J. McCarthy will still be out for the Vikings, leaving Carson Wentz as the quarterback, while Aaron Jones may make his return from injured reserve to reinforce the Minnesota backfield…and so we’ll start there.

MINNESOTA

Assuming Jones returns, that removes Jordan Mason from bell cow status and should return the two backs to some sort of timeshare – probably close to an even split. This is an unfortunate development for DFS because the Chargers have been getting trampled by opposing running backs lately, allowing big performances to Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, and Cam Skattebo in four consecutive weeks. Assuming the Vikings keep things close, it’s very plausible one of their running backs has a big game, and Mason is a bit priced down into territory where he’s still in play as a contrarian tournament piece even if it’s a timeshare. I’d sooner play Mason than Jones, as it’s possible Jones gets eased back in a bit, but both are viable. They’re volatile options, but I expect ownership will be low, and so it’ll be easy to be overweight the field should you desire it. I wouldn’t pair them together. If Jones doesn’t play, Mason is in a much stronger bell cow role and at $8.6k would project extremely well, while RB2 Zavier Scott would be viable as a tourney punt assuming he’s in, and Cam Akers would fill that role should Scott miss. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the air, Justin Jefferson is $11.8k, his most expensive Showdown price of the season, despite only having two games over 20 DK points on the year so far. Jefferson is immensely talented, but the matchup isn’t ideal, and neither is his quarterback situation. He’s a tricky play here because the ceiling is awesome, but the floor is pretty scary for his price, and yet his brand name means we’re almost never going to get an ownership discount on him in a Showdown. I’m probably a terrified-but-underweight position here. WR2 Jordan Addison, though, has actually outscored Jefferson on a points-per-game basis, which is admittedly a tiny sample size, but Addison is also very talented, and as Pulse has pointed out in our Discord, Addison actually has more 30+ DK point games in the last two years than Jefferson. Odd, isn’t it? At $7,400, Addison sure looks tempting, and since he’s priced right around all the Chargers wideouts, his ownership will likely be kept in check a bit. The WR3 is Jalen Nailor, who is in roughly a half-time role that has still earned him 3-5 targets every game; that’s a totally fair price at $3,600, and while he isn’t an exciting play, he’s a reasonable value option, and if he finds paydirt he is also getting enough volume that he probably finds his way into the optimal lineup. Worth noting: this could just be fluky, but Nailor currently leads the team in red zone targets with 8, and while I’d be stunned if that continues throughout the year, he does at least have some trust when in the red zone, and that’s valuable. Adam Thielen has been mostly removed from the offense now that Addison is back and can be viewed as a tourney dart throw at best.

At tight end, I’ve written several times already this year about how Carson Wentz has one of the highest TE target rates of any quarterback in the league going back for several years…except he hasn’t been targeting Hockenson at those rates. Is it Hockenson? Is it because he has two elite wideouts to throw to? Is it something else? I don’t know, but Hock did finally see 9 targets last week, his most of the year. I generally tend to trust years-long trends over just a few games, so I think if Wentz keeps starting for Minnesota that we’ll see some more games of 8+ targets for Hock, and $4,800 is just far too cheap if he ends up seeing that kind of volume. I’m in. TE2 Josh Oliver plays just under half the snaps and can be considered as a tourney punt option. I prefer Nailor to Oliver as he’s consistently earned more targets (25 for Nailor vs. just 7 for Oliver on the year).

LOS ANGELES

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Dolphins TE Darren Waller suffered a pectoral strain in Week 7 and has been labeled “week-to-week.” It appears highly likely he misses Week 8 against the Falcons. UPDATE: Waller was placed on IR and will miss the next four games, at minimum.
• The Falcons have legitimate home-road splits this season, averaging 26.0 points per game at home versus 10.7 on the road.
• The Dolphins also sneakily carry immense location-based splits in 2025, averaging 27.0 poinst per game at home versus just 14.8 on the road.
• Falcons released WR Ray-Ray McCloud amidst a “private matter.”
• Falcons QB Michael Penix (foot) was labeled “day-to-day” by HC Raheem Morris after suffering a bone bruise in his foot in Week 7.
• Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE); Atlanta ranks top 10 in total play volume while the Dolphins rank dead last.
• De’Von Achane sets up well here to see robust pass-game usage.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How MIAMI Will Try To Win ::

I talked a lot last week and already this week about the handful of teams still hunting to find their identity after the first seven weeks of the 2025 season – the Dolphins are one of those teams. I thought this team had a chance to turn the trajectory of their franchise around after playing the Patriots and Bills tough and then beating the Jets, but those thoughts quickly took a U-turn in their Week 5 loss to the Panthers. After the game, head coach Mike McDaniel appeared to be visibly dejected leaving the field, and those negative vibes came to a relative climax following their Week 7 dismantling at the hands of the Browns. In his Monday presser this week, McDaniel was asked about his expectations of his quarterbacks moving forward, to which he responded, “My expectation is that we don’t throw 10 interceptions.” Yikes. But this is still a team that has scored 21 or more points in all but two games this season, which is the same as the Bills, Cowboys, and Lions, to name a few other teams that fit that production. Which is to say, scoring has not been the primary issue for this team in 2025 – poor leadership and cohesion, inopportune turnovers, and a defense allowing 363.1 total yards of offense and 29.3 points per game are the true issues here. It wouldn’t be as bad if it were only McDaniel that appears to be losing the locking room, but we can add quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to that list after his postgame interview shenanigans following the team’s Week 6 loss, where he pretty much threw his entire team under the bus. Things are not copacetic in Miami.

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Before backups took over in a blowout loss in Week 7, Achane had handled no fewer than 73% of the team’s offensive snaps while spiking to a snap rate of 87% or higher in three of his first six games. He had also seen 20 or more opportunities in four of the first six games. That said, he peaked at 22 opportunities even while seeing ridiculously high snap rates, meaning he doesn’t appear to be a candidate to challenge the top players at the position as far as ceiling in volume is concerned. That leaves his weekly range of outcomes lacking when compared to other players near his current salary. Consistent pass-game involvement gives Achane one of the steadier weekly floors and the matchup should be viewed as middling-to-positive against a Falcons team allowing 1.80 yards before contact per attempt (17^th) and 4.7 yards per carry (27^th). Finally, rookie Ollie Gordon is typically good for about 25% of the offensive snaps in a given game as the clear change-of-pace option.

With Waller out and Tyreek Hill done for the season, the Dolphins are likely to be forced to march out Malik Washington, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Dee Eskridge, Julian Hill, and Tanner Conner for meaningful snaps alongside Jaylen Waddle this week. That simultaneously does little to inspire confidence in this team moving the football consistently against a stout Falcons defense and should concentrate volume heavily on Waddle and Achane through the air. And since Waddle is likely to be the player to draw isolation coverage from standout cornerback A.J. Terrell, this could be a game in which we see another spike week in targets directed towards Achane. Furthermore, the Atlanta linebacker corps is currently decimated by injury, with both Divine Deablo and Jalon Walker nursing what appear to be multi-week injuries. 

HOW ATLANTA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By PAPY324 >>

• The most notable injury on the Jets is CB Sauce Gardner, who missed Wednesday’s practice while in concussion protocol.
• The Bengals are relatively healthy, with only DE Cameron Sample and CB Marco Wilson missing practice on Wednesday with a knee and a hammy, respectively.
• The Jets haven’t revealed who is going to start at QB, but Tyrod Taylor looks like the favorite.
• Breece Hall played only 54% of the snaps last week working in a near-even timeshare with Isaiah Davis. 
• Josh Reynolds played 95% of the snaps and saw nine targets as the Jets’ WR1 last week, but he did nothing with his opportunity. 
• The Bengals, like the rest of the league, let Joe Flacco throw the ball nearly 50 times.
• Ja’Marr Chase is good at football, and you don’t need to know the plays if the play is always throwing the ball to Ja’Marr.
• Chase Brown played his best game of the season last week, but a lot of that came from the Steelers middle-school-level tackling. 

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 0-7 Jets come into Week 8 as the last team with a chance to achieve a prestigious 0-17 record. Their best outcome for the season is coming away with the first overall pick, and things are starting to unravel in New York. This week, owner Woody Johnson publicly ripped Justin Fields saying, “If we can just complete a pass, it would look good” about the offense. He also failed to place any blame on head coach Aaron Glenn, saying that Glenn has “turned around parts of the team” and even included that he hugs Glenn after every game. He also didn’t accept any of the responsibility himself for the Jets having the worst record in the league since 2019. Losing franchises stay losing franchises because of poor ownership, but naturally, none of this is Johnson’s fault. Glenn may have escaped criticism from the owner, but he won’t escape it here. The Jets offense has been playing at a moderate pace (12^th in seconds per play), but that is misleading because they’re always losing. They play at a below-average situational-neutral pace, but it is worth noting that offense changed when Taylor was at QB. It’s a small sample size, but the Jets did play at a positive situational-neutral pace with Taylor at the helm. If that trend holds, it’s possible this game will have more plays than we’ve seen out of the Jets with Fields under center. It’s currently up in the air who will start at QB, because according to boomer Glenn, he didn’t want to give the Bengals a “competitive advantage” in knowing who will be under center. Ya, I’m sure they’re having night sweats trying to decide if you’re playing Taylor or Fields. 

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The Bengals have been clobbered on the ground (29^th in DVOA) and skewed through the air (30^th in DVOA). The Bengals are the worst (32^nd in total DVOA) defense in the league, ever so slightly edging out the Dolphins.  The Bengals can’t stop anything, which means teams will typically attack them in their preferred method. The Jets have avoided throwing (32^nd in PROE) with their offense looking like something from the Vince Lombardi era. Maybe that’s because they don’t trust Fields? Maybe it’s because Aaron “Father Time” Glenn is uncreative? Maybe it’s because the owner failed to build a roster with one than one NFL-caliber WR? Whatever the reason, it’s not because the Jets’ revamped offense line (25^th-ranked by PFF) has been good.  They gave up five sacks last week (most in the league), with everyone except C Josh Myers being responsible for at least one sack. The Jets’ O-line got a lot of hype coming into the season, with many analysts predicting they would make a leap into qualifying as one of the top 10 units in the league. That simply hasn’t happened, as the O-line, along with everyone else, has significantly underperformed. When all phases of a team underperform, that usually has to do with coaching, but I hear Glenn gives one heck of a hug. If Fields starts at QB, expect another run-heavy game plan played at a slog pace. If Taylor starts at QB, expect the same, but with the caveat that they might speed things up and try to throw more because they trust their backup QB more than their starter. 

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

This is an interesting game for DFS, because while both teams are bad, we know that the Bengals are going to chuck it all over the yard. We also know that the reason both teams are bad (mostly the reason) is because they have two of the worst defenses in the league. That means we have two of the worst defenses in the league facing off in a game that might go overlooked by the field. With that in mind, let’s break this one down for DFS. 

The Jets Passing Game 

Glenn looks like he should be giving lawn care tips rather than telling us how he’ll be gaining a competitive advantage, but since NFL coaches would rather conceal who is playing than game plan, we must speculate who is going to play QB. I’d guess Taylor ($4,500) starts this game based on the public criticism the Jets owner aimed at Fields ($5,000). Taylor might be better than Fields, but I’d hate to split the difference. Either way, this game is going to feature a cheap running QB against a bad defense. I’d feel better playing Taylor at the $500 discount because the Jets have shown they trust him more, and if Fields starts, there is a real risk of an in-game benching. I’ll have some interest in Taylor, but I’ll stay off Fields. The Jets’ healthy WRs are Reynolds ($3,900), Allen Lazard ($3,400), and Arian Smith ($3,200). Reynolds saw nine targets last week and is priced below $4,000 so I guess he must stay on my list, but he feels like a thin play. I can’t advocate for any of the other members of this WR room. Mason Taylor ($3,500) is probably the Jets’ best pass catcher, so naturally, he was ignored till midway through the third quarter last week. He’s my favorite stacking partner with a Jets QB, but I don’t see myself going here on a tighter build. 

The Jets Running Game

Hall ($6,300) makes sense in theory, but he played only 54% of the snaps last week with Davis seeing the field for 48% of the snaps. If this backfield is going to become a timeshare, neither guy is going to be playable. It’s worth noting that Hall drastically outpaced Davis in opportunities (14-6), but that can change in an instant if both guys are seeing the field half the time. I want to recommend Hall, but his best games this season have come against Dallas (22 DK points), Pittsburgh (20 DK points), and Miami (16 DK points). Those scores all came against sorry defenses, and while they’d be “ok” at his price, none of them would be what you’d want to win a tournament. Hall failed to crack 10 DK points in his other games, and while the Bengals defense falls into the category of sorry, I don’t think it’s worth gambling on Hall only playing half the snaps for 20 DK-point upside. I don’t see myself using Hall on my tighter builds.  

The Bengals Passing Game 

Flacco ($5,400) isn’t going to do anything with his legs which drops his floor, but there is a good chance he throws for 300 yards. He’s affordably priced for a guy we confidently predict will throw 40 passes. I’m interested in Flacco, and if playing Flacco, Chase ($8,100) and Tee Higgins ($5,600) feel like must-stacks. If Sauce plays, I could see the argument for using only Higgins since Sauce has done a good job locking up the other team’s WR1 while everyone else in the passing game feasts. If Sauce misses, it’s yard out for the Bengals WRs, as they will be playing one of the softest secondaries in the league without their best player. I’m likely to use Flacco on my tighter builds, stacking with one or both of Chase and Higgins.  

The Bengals Running Game

Chase Brown ($5,400) is coming off his best game of the season. He forced 10 missed tackles in Weeks 1-6 and forced seven missed tackles last week. A lot of that has to do with the Steelers, but it’s still encouraging to see Brown looking more like what we saw from him last season. Brown’s price is finally low enough that he could be worth taking a shot at, with the main issue being that the Jets run defense has been their team’s lone bright spot. If I play Bengals, I’m going to use a passing game stack, which means I probably won’t get Brown onto my lineups this week. I see him as more of a salary-saving piece, rather than a critical part of a stack.  If I build a roster where his salary fits, I’ll consider Brown, but he’s not going to be a target for me. 

Final Thought

This game has more appeal for DFS than I expected, but it’s also a high variance contest between two bad teams. The Bengals passing game looked functional with Flacco, but the Steelers also left everyone wide open. The Jets offense is in shambles, and even though the Bengals defense has been horrific, I think I’d rather play the Bengals D ($2,700) than anyone from the Jets’ side. The lone exception is Reynolds who played a ton (95% of the snaps) and saw nine targets. He didn’t turn his targets into anything, but it’s hard to ignore that kind of usage from a guy who is priced like a punt. I’ll probably stack this game on one of my tighter builds with Flacco + Chase + Higgins + Reynolds, but I don’t have a high confidence interval. 

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• The Browns defense has allowed 33 points per game on the road, compared to only 13.5 points per game at home.
• Cleveland expects to get tight end David Njoku back from his knee injury after a one week absence.
• The Browns have been heavily rumored to be a team that may trade veterans prior to next week’s trade deadline.
• Patriots QB Drake Maye continues to play at an elite level this season and has scored 20+ fantasy points in five of seven games.
• The Patriots have one of the easier schedules in the league and this week is the third game in a row where they face a team near the bottom of the league’s power rankings.
• Both defenses rank top-3 in the NFL in yards per carry allowed, potentially setting the stage for a more pass-heavy game script than most people would initially expect.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns recipe for success this season has been to lean on their strong defense and try to stay close to opponents, hoping for them to beat themselves. This has been approximately the approach for Cleveland regardless of whether rookie Dillon Gabriel or previous starter Joe Flacco has been under center. Overall, the team’s approach has been a run-focused attack that is not aggressive throwing the ball downfield until or unless they have to be.

Cleveland ranks 25th on the season in pass rate over expectation, but ranks 30th in that statistic over the last four weeks (three of which have been started by Gabriel). The Browns are happy to stick with the run unless the game script really gets away from them AND their opponent is able to shut down their rushing efficiency. For example, they were down 20-7 at halftime and lost 34-10 against the Lions a few weeks ago, but only had a 57% pass rate in that game. However, this profiles as a matchup where that approach may be difficult for Cleveland to stick with. The Patriots under head coach Mike Vrabel rank 6th in the NFL in run defense DVOA and 3rd in opponents yards per carry allowed. Meanwhile, the Patriots pass defense has struggled throughout the season. New England does have all pro cornerback Christian Gonzalez who usually guards his yard very well, but the overall impact of this defense is that opponents struggle to run the ball or pass downfield to primary wide receivers, but are beatable for secondary receivers and tight ends. All of this leads to a situation where we should expect Quinshon Judkins to be very busy on early down rushes, but also for tight ends Harold Fannin Jr. and David Njoku to be heavily targeted. Njoku is expected back from a knee injury that forced him to miss last week’s win over Miami, while WR Jerry Jeudy missed Wednesday’s practice but returned to a limited session Thursday. Jeudy has been one of the least efficient receivers in the league this season, but his mere presence on the field will be important for an otherwise unimposing passing game.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• First off, I really dislike when the NFL schedules two teams to play twice in a two-week calendar span. These two teams just met back on Thursday Night Football back in Week 6.
• The Giants have allowed a 16.6% explosive-run rate (fourth worst), 5.2 yards per carry (third worst), and the seventh-most yards before contact per attempt (2.24). For the third week in a row, Saquon Barkley is in a fantastic spot on paper to kickstart his season.
• WR A.J. Brown did not practice Wednesday or Thursday with a hamstring injury – the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jeff McLane reported Thursday that the “expectation is that Brown will be able to go” Sunday.
• C Cam Jurgens has yet to practice this week, which is a big deal for the Philadelphia offensive line.
• The Giants have four starting defensive players that have yet to practice this week in CB Paulson Adebo, OLB Brian Burns, DL Chauncey Golston, and S Jevon Holland.
• WR Darius Slayton got in two limited sessions to start Week 8 preparation. He has been out since Week 5 with a hamstring injury.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How NEW YORK Will Try To Win ::

The Giants have actually been a fun team to watch after the injection of rookies Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo into the roster. After scoring nine points or less in two of their first three games this season with Russell Wilson under center, the Giants have scored 21, 14, 34, and 32 points in their four games with Dart starting. Those last two games came against the Eagles and Broncos, two teams that are no pushovers defensively. But beyond that, this team has found its identity. After a negative pass rate over expectation (PROE) greater than one standard deviation below neutral in Dart’s first start of his career, the Giants have been one of the most balanced offenses in the league since Week 5. They ran 72 offensive plays against the Saints in Week 5 and split 40 pass attempts and 29 rush attempts in negative game script following five consecutive turnovers. They then beat the Eagles with 39 carries and 26 pass attempts before 33 pass attempts and 32 rush attempts in their stunning loss to the Broncos. Expect another balanced game plan built around what they are able to establish on the ground, with the additional threat of Dart’s legs.

Skattebo remains the lead back following the return of Tyrone Tracy, a move that effectively removed Devin Singletary from the game plan. Skattebo has now seen 22 or more opportunities in each of his four starts. The bruising bowling ball is averaging 4.06 yards per carry, with a low 4.1% explosive-run rate and moderate 43.9% stuff rate. His low 1.21 yards after contact per attempt help to describe his running style – he’s a player that will gain what is blocked and will accept contact, typically gaining that extra half-to-full-yard post-contact. He’s not someone that is going to run away from anyone nor is he someone that is going to make people miss. That profile typically requires elite volume (he’s on the borderline) and multiple touchdowns (he scored three times against this Eagles team two weeks ago) to return a usable GPP score. He also has to compete with Dart – who has three touchdowns on the ground of his own – for red-zone carries. The matchup appears to be solid on paper against an Eagles defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry, but they have held opponents to just 1.78 yards before contact per attempt and a middling 12.7% explosive-run rate this season.

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The pass offense for the Giants is a highly concentrated unit, at least as far as snap rates are concerned. Wan’Dale Robinson, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, and tight end Theo Johnson are the only players in near every-down roles with Slayton on the shelf. It remains to be seen if Slayton will make his return to the game-day roster considering he has not played since Week 5 and has yet to log a full practice, but I would simpy expect him to slide back into the role that Humphrey has held in his absence. Jalin Hyatt has been held to a situational role while tight end Daniel Bellinger rounds out the pass-catching corps. Bellinger’s snaps are likely tied to the game environment, likelier to see more snaps in neutral-to-positive scenarios. The Eagles have allowed only 15 explosive pass plays while playing above-average rates of man coverage, with no pass catcher in the Giants’ offense truly taking advantage of man coverage so far this year. 

HOW PHILADELPHIA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• WR Joshua Palmer has yet to practice this week after suffering knee and ankle injuries in the team’s Week 6 loss to the Falcons.
• QB Bryce Young is looking at a multi-week absence with a high-ankle sprain, leaving veteran Andy Dalton to start against the Bills.
• The Bills have allowed the highest explosive run rate (19.0%) this season.
• This game is probably the most interesting one to me on a slate with little certainty and a good deal of fragility.
• These two teams rank first and second in average time of possession, something that likely shocks a lot of people when talking about the Panthers.
• There are multiple “what if” situations in this game that I think warrant legitimate consideration on this slate.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

As we’ve seen for the better part of the previous two seasons, the Bills are no longer looking to maximize scoring on every possession; instead, they are more content to manage their way to wins. The issue with that setup this season is that their defense has been ravaged by injuries and is now allowing the highest explosive run rate, something that has gotten them into trouble in their two losses against the Patriots and Falcons. Take away their Week 1 win against the then-healthy Ravens, and this team really hasn’t beaten anyone notable this season, with other wins against the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints. That said, the Panthers are no world-beaters, and we should expect the Bills to approach the game in a similar way. But what if? What if the Bills come out of their bye week after two consecutive losses and their approach to winning games is different? That, to me, is how the upside is unlocked from this game environment. It is far from guaranteed, but is an interesting way to approach a slate in which we really don’t have many spots for certainty.

We kind of know what we’re getting with James Cook at this point. 18-22 opportunities are highly likely to be his range of outcomes in most game scenarios. He’s just as unlikely to see more than that as he is to see fewer than that, giving us a high confidence in his median projections. His ceiling comes from explosives and touchdowns, two things that are less likely in this matchup, considering the Panthers have allowed a middling 10.1% explosive run rate, 4.1 yards per carry, and only four rushing scores this season. Ty Johnson remains the clear change of pace back, while fullback Reggie Gilliam has found his way into an elevated snap rate of late.

Joshua Palmer’s expected absence is an interesting development in that there are multiple ways the Bills can handle it. Tyrell Shavers stepped into his vacated role following his departure in Week 6, but the team is coming off its bye and has had two weeks to prepare for life without Palmer. The other side of that coin is that there aren’t any other receivers currently on the roster that profile similarly to Palmer, with Coleman the established X and Shakir, Elijah Moore, and Curtis Samuel all more slot-type, schemed usage players. Because of that, I expect Shavers to see 50-60% of the offensive snaps, with the potential for the team to utilize 12-personnel at elevated rates. Tight end Dalton Kincaid missed Week 6 but appears set to return against the Panthers. I expect all of Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Jackson Hawes to see snap rates in the 50%+ range. The Panthers have played from zone at the fourth-highest rate this season (79.4%), theoretically setting up the slot players and tight ends well for volume. The problem is that there are six players that fall into those categories, so narrowing down where the aerial production is likeliest to come from is a fool’s errand.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• This game probably carries the widest range of outcomes on the slate. As we’ve discussed previously, the most profitable stance to take in games with wide ranges of outcomes is to be overweight when ownership is low and underweight when ownership is high. We’ll have to see how things shake out here the rest of the week.
• QB Lamar Jackson returned to the practice field for the first time in three weeks on Wednesday, albeit in a limited capacity. I would expect him to return in Week 8. Furthermore, FB Patrick Ricard and OT Ronnie Stanley both returned to full sessions after missing extended time. Ricard has yet to play this season. Furthermore, CBs Chidobie Awuzie and Marlon Humphrey, S Kyle Hamilton, and ILB Roquan Smith appear headed for returns to action.
• Jackson led the league in total touchdowns with 10 through three games before being injured.
• Derrick Henry sees the worlds align in this spot – Ricard due back, largest rushing mismatch of any game all season, and the return of Jackson to give the defense another component to account for.
• Rome Odunze is in a good spot on paper to return to his pre-bye production levels.
• Similarly, Zay Flowers is in a prime spot for ceiling.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How chicago Will Try To Win ::

The Bears have been living and dying with the turnover. They now lead the league with 2.7 takeaways per game after a four-game stretch in which they forced a ridiculous 15 turnovers (all wins). They are also tied for seventh in giveaways per game at only 0.8. They forced only one turnover in their two losses this season against the Vikings and Lions. That is important because their defense is allowing 350.0 yards of total offense (25th) and 25.8 points (also 25th) per game this season. They have also allowed the third-highest explosive play rate against, while their opponent in Week 8 has generated explosives at the highest rate in the league. To me, their approach to this game comes down to their ability to generate turnovers, as we should expect the Ravens to move the football well in this spot. In other words, we could see the Bears forced into more uncomfortable and one-dimensional territory if the Ravens are able to force their hands.

We heard head coach Ben Johnson speak to potential changes in the structure of their offense coming out of their Week 5 bye. While most thought that would relate to the involvement of their rookies, primarily Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, and Kyle Monangai, the real change came via situational play-calling tendencies, structure of plays, and the ability to shift the focus away from the relative one-dimensionality of the offense during their first four games. The biggest beneficiary of that shift was clearly running back D’Andre Swift, who didn’t see a bump in role as much as simply benefiting from better overall structure. The expected return of Roquan Smith should have the Ravens playing better against the run, but this is still a team that has allowed 4.5 yards per carry behind 1.49 yards allowed before contact per attempt. That said, Swift’s paths to 100 yards on the ground remain rather thin, considering he has hit 20 opportunities just twice all season. Monangai appears to have a stranglehold on change-of-pace duties and saw a career-high 16 opportunities a week ago.

The Ravens have played the third-highest rate of man coverage this season (39.4%). The Bears have run only 35 plays against man coverage so far, but Rome Odunze has been the primary option on those plays, amassing a 35.3% target rate, 63.9% air yards share, 0.34 TPRR, solid 3.34 YPRR, and elite 0.85 XFP/RR against that coverage shell. It should come as no surprise that Odunze’s best game of the season came against the man-heavy Lions, relatively underperforming against the zone-heavy Cowboys, Raiders, Commanders, and Saints following that breakout performance. This is a really nice spot for him on paper, and I don’t think the field will get here this week. Could be wrong, obviously, and I haven’t dared to take a gander (pique, peak, peek? Those in IC will get the reference) at ownership this early in the week, but that’s my initial read based on the state of the slate and recent industry biases. DJ Moore and, potentially, Loveland are the two likely to join Odunze in near every-down roles, with Loveland dependent on the status of Cole Kmet. Kmet failed to finish the team’s Week 7 win and did not practice on Wednesday with a back injury. Moore also did not practice on Wednesday with a hip injury, but I would expect him to play after he was a ‘DNP’ last Wednesday with hip and groin issues. In other words, it doesn’t appear to be a new issue for Moore.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Texans rank first in points allowed per game (14.7), a number that comes down at home to 10.0.
• WRs Nico Collins (concussion) and Christian Kirk (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday – it currently appears as if both will miss Week 8.
• Head coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters Monday “it would be a stretch” for QB Brock Purdy to play in Week 8 – he was limited in practice Wednesday.
• WR Jauan Jennings is now listed with three injuries on the team’s injury report – this dude has been gutting through multiple ailments this season.
• WR Ricky Pearsall remained on the sidelines at practice Wednesday.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How sAN FRANCISCO Will Try To Win ::

In the Week 7 win over the Falcons, the 49ers looked like the team they want to be for the first time, controlling the pace, tempo, and flow of the game. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh focused on disruption and the presence of both fullback Kyle Juszczyk and tight end George Kittle allowed the offense to function more naturally behind a blended power-and-pull run game. Christian McCaffrey had his best game of the season in the first full game with Juszczyk and Kittle on the field, and Mac Jones was able to carve up the Atlanta defense with more surgical precision than we had seen to this point in the season. That ultimately led to a 20-10 victory over the Falcons, and I expect the game plan to be similar in Week 8 against another top-tier defense. I also think that game against the Falcons is a good representation of how the 49ers want to try to win games this season, which included only 616 yards of total offense from the two teams combined, a hefty 60% third-down conversion rate, and 174 total team rush yards. Expect a similar approach against a Texans defense holding teams to 274.2 total yards of offense (fourth) and the fewest points per game (14.7) this season. This team is about as scrappy as they come, evidenced by their presence atop the division with a sparkling 5-2 record, 0.5 games back of the NFC lead, while dealing with more injuries than all but a select few teams in 2025 (potentially only the Ravens?).

McCaffrey had his true breakout game in Week 7 while accounting for 201 yards of the team’s 324 yards of total offense, touching the football 31 times as the primary point of emphasis. That hasn’t necessarily changed – the dude has been the focal point the entire season, it’s just now the offense is better structured to support his elite talents. The Texans have allowed only 11 explosive runs while the 49ers have generated only nine this season, something that is backed up by the underlying metrics considering Houston has ceded just 3.8 yards per carry behind 1.47 yards allowed before contact per attempt. Brian Robinson remains on hand to soak up any change-of-pace duties left behind but is unlikely to see even 10 opportunities here.

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Kittle immediately returned to an 81% snap rate following his five-game stay on injured reserve, which most might have missed considering his box score of zero catches on two targets. I started by wanting to say that Kittle means more to this offense than just about any player, but that isn’t entirely true. It’s more about what his presence means in conjunction with the other pieces, with the offense able to operate more like a well-oiled machine than a piston with foreign debris caught inside. The team seemed to be working harder for lesser returns with him out, instead able to flow and stay ahead of the sticks in Week 7. With Pearsall’s continued absence likely to persist this week, and with Brandon Aiyuk still rehabbing and not yet having seen his 21-day practice window opened, we should see a highly concentrated pass-catching corps amongst Kendrick Bourne, Jennings, and Kittle, with Demarcus Robinson the favorite to soak up situational snaps. I’m assuming Mac Jones makes another start here, and he does so in yet another difficult matchup against a Texans defense allowing just 179.0 yards through the air per game this season (fifth; drops to 142.0 at home, which would be right in line with the seasonal average of their previous opponent in the Falcons). Which is to say, nothing jumps off the page as far as upside is concerned, although we always have to keep the fact that any of these pass catchers can erupt at the drop of a hat in this offense – primarily speaking to Kittle within the context of the offense in its current state.

HOW HOUSTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Tampa looks to rebound from a tough Monday night loss to the Lions on a short week while dealing with a litany of injuries. The Bucs have a bye in Week 9.
• New Orleans has the worst record in the NFC at 1-6, but have been extremely competitive in their four home games to date.
• The Saints lost running back Kendre Miller to a torn ACL last week, which could put Alvin Kamara in store for his biggest workload of the season against a pass funnel Bucs defense.
• The Saints passing game has funneled primarily through three players in recent weeks – Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Juwan Johnson.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Bucs enter Week 8 just trying to survive and get to their bye week, then they can regroup and hopefully get healthy. They are still without several key members of their skill group that will affect their game plan and expected efficiency. With Mike Evans out for the season and Chris Godwin sidelined by a fibula injury, the Buccaneers’ primary pass catchers for their Week 8 matchup are rookie Emeka Egbuka, Cade Otton, and rookie Tez Johnson. Veteran Sterling Shepard will also be on the field a lot and probably see several targets, but they are likely to be of the short area “just get some yards” variety. We should also expect WR Kameron Johnson to get some snaps in this spot as he can add some much needed downfield juice. Overall, however, the rookie Egbuka will effectively operate as the “alpha” of this passing game while Otton’s role is likely to be central to the game plan as we have seen over the past two seasons when this team is shorthanded at wide receiver. The rookie Johnson, Tez, is dynamic and will certainly be used as a downfield threat and on some manufactured touches, like he was Monday night when he scored on a screen pass against the Lions.

As for the backfield, Rachaad White played 90% of the snaps Monday night, compared to only 10% for Sean Tucker. White is by far the more accomplished and trusted player in the passing game, however, and the Bucs trailed throughout the game which is not the expected situation for this week. Given the fact that this is a much easier matchup on the ground and the state of the Bucs receivers, it would not be surprising to see Tucker play a bigger role this week and the team attempt to become more balanced in their approach. Overall, however, the Saints run defense has been adequate this season and has been strong against weaker units but struggled against higher end rushing schemes. The Bears got them for 222 rushing yards last week and on paper don’t look like a great rushing offense for the season, but Ben Johnson’s offenses are historically very good on the ground and Chicago’s running game has looked great in consecutive weeks since their bye. That is a long way of saying the Bucs are likely to try to be more balanced here and should have moderate success on the ground, but it isn’t a situation where they are just going to run all over the Saints.

New Orleans has a beatable defense, but they are not a pushover. The Bucs have enough pieces missing that offensive success is far from a guarantee. We can expect White and Egbuka to be the primary offensive options here, but the Saints are likely strong enough to keep the inefficient Bucs running game from moving the ball too well. Meanwhile, New Orleans will certainly be keyed in on Egbuka as the clear top option through the air. This leaves Tez Johnson, Otton, and Shepard as players I would expect to be involved early on to move the chains and force the Saints to respect all areas of the field. Baker Mayfield has played great football this season and is not afraid to spread things around, taking whatever the defense gives him when he can and aggressively taking shots when he needs to.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• Dallas has allowed 22 or more points in every game this season, while Denver has scored at least 20 points in all but one game.
• The Broncos defense has struggled against more efficient offenses while picking on the weaker teams they have faced.
• Denver’s use of their secondary, particularly reigning defensive player of the year Patrick Surtain II, will have a huge impact on how this game plays out.
• Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has a passer rating of 124 or higher in each of his last four games.
• This is one of only two games on this week’s main slate between two teams with a .500 record or better.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How dallas Will Try To Win ::

The perception around the Cowboys has continuously evolved over the course of the season and a team that many people expected to struggle to compete enters Week 8 with a 3-3-1 record thanks to an elite offense and a defense that has performed very well relative to their on-paper talent level. The Cowboys three wins have come against teams with losing records, their three losses came against teams with winning records, and they played the Packers to a 40-40 tie. The summary of this is that the Cowboys offense has played consistently well this season, while their defense has been “good enough” for them to beat weaker opponents. This week traveling to Denver to face a very good defense and an offense that has underachieved so far this season, the Cowboys will need their defense to give them a chance and they will need another outstanding performance from their offense.

Dallas has enjoyed a terrific season from QB Dak Prescott as he has taken his game to another level this season. Part of that elite play has to do with having the best receiving duo of his career in George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb, but Dak continued playing at an incredibly high level even when Lamb was sidelined for three and a half weeks. Dak has had a passer rating over 120 in each of the last four games. This week the Denver defense presents an interesting challenge for the Cowboys and how Denver decides to try to handle them will play a huge role in what Dallas does offensively. The Broncos play the 4th highest rate of man coverage and have an elite cornerback in defending Defensive Player of the Year, Patrick Surtain II. Surtain is often used in shadow coverage and in theory the Broncos would be most likely to put him on Lamb, which would leave Pickens in the coverage of Riley Moss, who struggled last season but has played better in 2025. However, Dak is playing at such a high level and Pickens is so talented that this is a matchup they would surely look to exploit. The other end of that is if they decide not to shadow Lamb, allowing Surtain to cover Pickens on the perimeter, or if they were to play more zone as they did in the second half against the Eagles. This option would leave Lamb free to do his damage as he moves all over the field and runs a diverse route tree. Lamb has played in three full games and has at least 110 receiving yards in each of them. Tight end Jake Ferguson has been terrific for fantasy purposes this season, but has surpassed 49 receiving yards in only two of seven games. Those games were a wild Week 2 shootout with the Giants where Dak threw the ball 52 times and then in Week 3 when Lamb left the game early and Dallas trailed by multiple scores for basically the entire game. Ferguson is a primary red zone target, but this offense revolves primarily around Lamb and Pickens. 

The Broncos secondary has a very strong reputation that they have earned, but the reality is that Dallas should still be able to move the ball through their two elite talents at wide receiver. Dallas uses pre-snap motion at one of the highest rates in the league and Prescott is terrific at identifying coverages and blitzes. Whatever coverages Denver elects to use, expect Dak to identify them and attack whatever the weak point is. The Cowboys have a relatively neutral pass rate over expectation and tries to stay balanced, but the Broncos allow only 3.8 yards per carry and are very strong up front. Most of the Cowboys rushing success this year has come at the expense of struggling defenses. We should expect Dallas to attempt to stay balanced early in this game, but struggle to get much going on the ground. They likely won’t be completely stifled, but the majority of their offense will need to be generated through the air.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• This is a rematch of a Week 3 game that the Colts won 41-20.
• Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor has been dominant this season, scoring three touchdowns in a game three times already through seven weeks.
• The Colts defense has allowed 400+ yards of total offense in three of the last four weeks.
• Tennessee released veteran wide receiver Tyler Lockett and may be without Calvin Ridley again this week after he failed to practice to start the week.
• Indianapolis is operating one of the most efficient offenses not just of this season but in recent history, while the Titans are near the bottom of the league in most defensive metrics.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How Tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The Titans got the immediate “post-coach firing” bump that we often see for teams in the first half against New England as they jumped out to an early 10-3 lead and scored a first quarter touchdown for the first time all season. Yes, that is a true statistic. The Titans had not scored more than three points in a first quarter this season prior to Week 7. Impressive. Unfortunately for Tennessee, the Patriots gradually pulled away for an easy 31-13 victory as the Titans had two turnovers on five second half possessions while falling back into their old ways. 

The Titans backfield has been split since the return of Tyjae Spears with him and Tony Pollard playing roughly an equal amount of snaps. Tennessee has not been very efficient on the ground, however, ranking 26th in rushing offense DVOA and yards per carry. The Titans offensive line has actually been average in run blocking, ranking 14th in adjusted line yards per carry, but middling stats like that don’t mean much when the game script gets away from them so quickly in most weeks.

The Titans rank 2nd in raw pass rate, but have tried to be a balanced offense early in games as they attempt to slow games down and stay within striking distance. However, the Titans were more creative and aggressive throwing the ball early in last week’s game which was the first since the removal of former head coach Brian Callahan. Indianapolis faces the second highest opponent pass rate in the NFL, which is also heavily influenced by game script, but nonetheless this projects as a game that the Titans will need to open things up a bit early on to give themselves a chance of early offensive success and the way things look on the other side of the ball they are likely to be chasing points for the entirety of this game.

Tennessee’s wide receiver room entering this season left a lot of questions, but for this week at least things seem to be relatively clear cut. The Titans released veteran wide receiver Tyler Lockett on Monday and are expected to be without Calvin Ridley once again this week, while Ridley also happens to be the subject of many trade rumors across the league. The removal of Lockett leaves explosive rookie Chimere Dike in position for a full-time slot receiver role, while veteran Van Jefferson and rookie Elic Ayomanor are the every down perimeter receivers. The tight ends have been splitting work as well, with rookie Gunnar Helm having an increased role last week and each of Helm and Chig Okonkwo playing roughly 60% of the team’s snaps. The Colts defense has given up big games to tight ends in consecutive weeks (Trey McBride and Oronde Gadsden), while also allowing Chargers slot receiver Keenan Allen and Cardinals veteran journeyman Zay Jones to have success against them in recent weeks. Tennessee ranks 26th in plays per game as their offense for much of the year struggled to sustain drives at all, but they have shown signs of life and should see elevated play volume in this matchup against a Colts team who has faced a high amount of plays from opponents this season. The likely increase in play volume and elevated pass rate in a trailing game script lead to a situation where Titans rookie QB Cam Ward seems likely to eclipse his season high of 39 pass attempts in this matchup.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

On Sunday night, the Packers will travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in a 45.5 total game with Green Bay favored by 3. The Steelers are, somewhat shockingly to yours truly, on top of their division at 4-2 and they’ve been competitive in just about every game they’ve played in, with Aaron Rodgers still looking capable at quarterback in his age-41 season. The Packers, meanwhile, are also on top of their division at 4-1-1 (with the exceedingly rare tie). I didn’t think this would be the case, but this is a matchup of two division leaders. 

PITTSBURGH

On the Steelers side of things, Jaylen Warren has looked good in his return from injury, running for 127 yards on just 16 carries last week. Warren has been so good that rookie Kaleb Johnson saw 0 touches last week despite being active, while RB2 Kenneth Gainwell saw just 5 touches, tied for his fewest of the season. Warren is even more than doubling Gainwell’s red zone touches in games in which they’re both active, which is one worry I had for him coming into the season, as he’s a bit undersized for an RB1, and I thought they might try to protect him from those bruising goal line carries. He’s not a bell cow – he’s only played over 65% of the snaps once on the season – but the workload is solid and includes good passing game usage with 19 targets in five games. He’s not my favorite play on the slate, but I like him more than I thought I would when I first started looking into this game. I was expecting to be mostly off of him, but instead I think he’s a fine, acceptable, albeit not super exciting play. Gainwell is cheap enough at $3k to be a very viable RB2 play as he’s seen games with target counts of 4, 5, and 6 while sharing the field with Warren – for limited yardage, but in DK’s PPR format, that’s enough for him to possibly get there even without finding the end zone. The real downside here is a matchup against a Green Bay defense that has only allowed one opposing team to reach 100 rushing yards (and it took a 40-40 OT game to do it) while holding opponents to just 3.5 yards per carry, 3rd lowest in the NFL. 

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In the passing game, the Packers D has been more “good” than “elite,” and so this is where we might see the Steelers find more success (it also aligns with the Packers being favorites and possibly putting Pittsburgh into a negative game script that encourages more throwing). Calvin Austin is back practicing in full and should thus resume a full-time role opposite DK Metcalf, which pushes all other Pittsburgh wide receivers into fringe tourney territory, only no other Steelers wideout played more than 35% of the snaps in a game with both Metcalf and Austin active. Metcalf is plenty talented, but is seeing very modest target volume as this offense spreads the ball around a lot while also averaging just 29 pass attempts per game, leaving him with just 6 targets per game (one of the lowest in the league for an offense’s WR1). Combine that with his lower-than-usual 10.7-yard aDOT, and it’s tough to see a ton of upside for Metcalf at his premium price. He’s an elite player with 240 total yards after the catch – but that’s probably how he’s going to need to find ceiling in this game, and against the Packers disciplined defense, which is one of the best in the league at preventing explosive passing plays, the odds of that happening feel low. I want to invest in the Pittsburgh passing game, and I’ll have some Metcalf, but at his price, he’s a bit of a tough sell to play a ton of. Calvin Austin, in his healthy games, was averaging 5 targets per game with a much-nicer ADOT of 14.6 yards – he’s not as talented as Metcalf, but the price of $5,800 is a heck of a lot more appealing.

We’re also seeing Pittsburgh rotate three tight ends, with all of Jonnu Smith, Darnell Washington, and Pat Freiermuth seeing significant field time (and of course, Freiermuth went absolutely bonkers last game). Rodgers has targeted his tight ends heavily this year and Pittsburgh runs 12 personnel at one of the highest rates of any team, so you can even play two of their TEs together – Jonnu and Freiermuth accounted for 10 of the Steelers 23 completed passes last game, so at their cheap prices of $4.2k or less, there’s room for multiple guys to eat. They’re all viable, and I’d rank them as Jonnu, then Freiermuth, then Washington. 

GREEN BAY

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 8 closes out with the Commanders visiting the Chiefs for a 47.5 total game with Kansas City favored by a huge 12.5 points. The Chiefs offense, after being stuck in neutral for most of the last two years, has finally started rolling, scoring 28+ points in four straight games (and yeah, that included Baltimore and Las Vegas, but it also included Jacksonville and Detroit). The Commanders, meanwhile, once again find themselves without Jayden Daniels and will turn to Marcus Mariota, who guided the team to scores of 41 (against Las Vegas) and 27 (against Atlanta) in his two starts this year. The Chiefs are extremely likely to put up points. The Commanders looked pretty solid under Mariota twice already. Can they do it again and keep up, or will they get stomped at Arrowhead?

KANSAS CITY

On the Chiefs side of things, the backfield remains a frustrating split. Isaiah Pacheco is the ostensible lead back, but after seeing a season-high 77% of the snaps in Week 6, he dipped down to 56% in Week 7. Now, some of that was due to blowout as Pacheco saw just 2 fourth quarter carries while Brashard Smith saw 11 of his 14 carries in the fourth, but that still means Pacheco saw “only” 13 carries in the first three quarters to go along with 2 targets. I say “only” because the game was an absolute blowout with the Chiefs dominating time of possession and play volume (the Raiders ran only 29 offensive plays), which makes Pacheco’s touch count look inflated. Still, he did see his most carries of the season and scored a touchdown. The downside is that it also bumped his Showdown price up from $4k on the last Chiefs island game to $7k this week. In a tough matchup against the Commanders, I’m mostly off here. Yes, the Chiefs could dominate the game, but $7k Pacheco is very different from $4k Pacheco, and he hasn’t put up a score all year that would make you feel good about playing him at his current price. Kareem Hunt was injured during the game last week, didn’t practice Thursday, then got in a limited practice on Friday, but also had an ankle injury added to his injury report. He’s also been ineffective all year. So…who knows here. I don’t get the Chiefs fascination with him. He’s no longer good on the ground and they aren’t even using him as a pass catcher with just 8 targets on the year. Smith, on the other hand, has seen his role grow lately. Yes, most of the carries came in garbage time last week, but he also has target counts of 4, 3, 4, and 5 in the last four games. At $4k, I’d rather play him than Hunt, personally, as it’s at least possible his role could be on the upswing and the passing game work has value in PPR formats. Overall, though, the Chiefs backfield remains what it has been all year: mostly a place to stay away from. 

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In the passing game, Rashee Rice made his return, promptly scored 2 touchdowns, and then only played 41% of the snaps because the Raiders rolled over and died. So it’s hard to know how things are really going to shake out in this receiving corps, but one thing we can look at is the data around snaps and routes just through the first three quarters of the game:

What seems obvious is that Rice and Xavier Worthy are the two main guys, with Rice the 1 and Worthy the 2. The Chiefs clearly made an effort to get Rice involved early and often with a massive 10 targets (8 of which came in the first half). At $9,600, he’s expensive but not really priced like a true WR1, but he is one. He had a 24/288/2 receiving line last year in just three games. It’s odd to say a guy at $9,600 in Showdown is underpriced, but Rice should really be at least $10k in true alpha WR territory. Worthy still has upside, I believe, with Rice back. Rich hurts his target share (of course), but it also helps the overall efficiency of the offense and should free Worthy up to run more deep routes. Worthy is very, very fast, and he profiles as a deep threat receiver but hasn’t been able to be used as such because of Rice’s absence. I think we’ll see him move into that role, which gives him strong per-target upside in a positive matchup against a Washington secondary that has been burned by deep passing all season (remember Tre Tucker?). Worthy also played 71% of the snaps in the first three quarters of last week’s game (before the Chiefs started resting starters), while no other wide receiver even reached the 50% mark. I expect Rice will pass 50% this week, but Worthy should still be on top. All of this is to say that I think Worthy is still extremely playable even with Rice’s return. It looks like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquise Brown, and Tyquan Thornton will all have some kind of split roles. I think JuJu is probably at the highest risk of losing snaps as Rice’s playing time increases, but I could be wrong here. Thornton’s skillset fits the matchup and gives him the best per-target upside of the trio, while Brown is still fast and capable with the ball in his hands, while JuJu is more of a “catch and get tackled” kind of guy with a modest aDOT. That’s the order in which I’d rank this group.

At tight end, Travis Kelce led the Chiefs pass catchers in snaps and routes in the first three quarters last week, but it resulted in just 3 targets. Kelce’s usage is likely to remain very modest as they try to take it easy on him until the playoffs. As his price has dipped down to $8k, he’s still at least in the player pool, but personally, I’m not high on him for any games in which the Chiefs look likely to dominate as long as Rice and Worthy are both healthy. I just think they’re going to look to their younger pass catchers to carry the team throughout the regular season whenever possible. TE2 Noah Gray has been on the field a ton but isn’t seeing much usage when he’s there – he has games of 5 and 6 targets earlier in the season but otherwise has just 5 total targets in the year’s other five games. 

WASHINGTON