Updated Sep 24, 2026 · 11:13 AM ET

Updated Sep 25, 2026 · 5:32 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• The Bills have allowed both opponents thus far to score 31 points, while averaging a league-leading 38.5 points per game themselves. We’re quickly approaching “2024 Detroit Lions” territory here – high-powered offense and poor defense.
• I’m writing this game up before the full Wednesday practice report from the Bills, but it currently looks as if WR DJ Moore practiced in some capacity and WR Keon Coleman missed, which was not the expectation following Moore’s departure from Week 2 with a shoulder injury.
• James Cook currently leads the league in backfield opportunity rate at a staggering 95.3 percent.
• The Bills have allowed both opponents thus far to score 31 points against them.
• The Chargers offensive line is going to remain an issue, particularly against a defense generating pressure at the sixth highest rate through two games.

HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN::

I’m not sure what to make of the Chargers through two weeks. They came out and looked absolutely phenomenal on their first two possessions of Week 1, then Ladd McConkey went down and the offense couldn’t move the football, then they lost two “starting” tight ends in Week 2. Both of the games they have played so far have involved key injuries during the game that forced them to adjust on the fly, something McDaniel, being an astute game planner, has proven to struggle with in previous seasons. They are now left with a pass-catching-only tight end in Oronde Gadsden II and three practice squad level tight ends behind him. One of the reasons I loved McConkey in Best Ball was for the expectation that the offense would be largely reliant on heavy personnel considering their offseason actions. With the tight ends out of the picture, I think we see a shift to heavier rates of 21- and 11-personnel, effectively eliminating 12 out of necessity. The good news is that McDaniel has a week to prepare within that structure. The bad news is that I expect both Quentin Johnston and Tre Harris to see their snap rates and route participation increase in the short term. Not that that expectation completely nerfs McConkey, it’s just a much better setup to be competing for targets with two or three players on the field that aren’t really threats for elite volume. Another key aspect of this team’s current state is an offensive line already struggling through significant injuries, leading to suboptimal play through two games (picked up two more offensive line injuries last week that may or may not keep them out in Week 3). The Chargers have blocked to a 21st-ranked 2.41 ARBY while their backs have averaged just 3.86 yards per carry. They’ve also allowed 12.5 pressures on an average of only 33 dropbacks per game, which is the seventh highest pressure rate allowed (poor Baker Mayfield is at 53.9 percent, lolz). McDaniel is going to be forced to adopt a more ball-out-quick offensive structure to negate some of those shortcomings, particularly against a Bills defense generating pressure at the sixth highest rate in the league (37.2 percent).

Omarion Hampton currently ranks 10th in the league in backfield opportunity share at 78.7 percent, playing as a true workhorse through two games. Due to the previously mentioned offensive line struggles, he is averaging only 3.9 yards per carry on 35 totes, significantly impacting his ceiling in the process. Hampton came into the league with plus burst, particularly for a back of his size (220 pounds), but it hasn’t translated well in McDaniel’s offense, for whatever reason. The Bills have allowed only 2.17 ARBY and 3.50 yards per carry to opposing backfields through two contests, which is a significant improvement from seasons past. They also could be without two starters along the offensive line, pending the health of Ed Oliver. What I see on tape is an athletic linebacker corps that quickly fills gaps in a 3-4 base, so maybe those tendencies carry forward into trend, although it is much too early to make sweeping generalizations just yet. Consider it a neutral matchup on the ground considering all variables.

As we uncovered above, it is likeliest to be the passing game that gets the job done for the Chargers, and it almost has to be a ball-out-quick design to find success. I’m not saying either player is guaranteed success within that setup, but it is most likely to be McConkey and/or Gadsden. The Bills have allowed a middling 8.4 defensive aDOT, accompanied by a 4.1 average yards after catch per reception and the 10th highest tight end target rate allowed. They have also allowed the third most completions (26.0) on the fifth most pass attempts faced per game (38.0), which should continue to be a trend considering the weekly upside of their offense. Interestingly enough, no pass-catcher was in a route on greater than a 74.2 percent frequency in either week, with both of those weeks including normal contributors that left early. Gadsden has the most room to grow after a lowly 41.9 percent route participation in Week 2, although all of McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Tre Harris could see an uptick in route rate moving forward after floating near the 70 percent range through two games.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Added Sep 23, 2026 · 6:58 PM ET

Published Sep 24, 2026 · 8:33 PM ET

Game Overview

• The Panthers have been fantasy darlings, but the Browns will be the best defense they’ve faced
• Bryce Young had two easy matchups, but he put up stats in both, and this might be the start of a true breakout
• Jalen Coker is a player. The Panthers have one of the most dynamic duos at WR in the league.
• With Jonathon Brooks hitting the IR, Chuba Hubbard has a chance to be a workhorse
• Deshaun Watson played his best game of the past five years last week
• David Boston is on the field for over 90% of the snaps, but has a difficult matchup against a defense that keeps everything in front of them
• Quinshon Judkins has a strong matchup against the weak Panthers run D

How Carolina Will Try to Win

The 1-1 Panthers come into Week 2 tied with the Saints a top the NFC South. The NFC south is 2-6 cumulatively, and projects as one of the weakest divisions in football. With no dominant team, the division is wide open, and the Panthers have had an interesting first two games. They gave up 59 points in Week 1, but scored 37 themselves, before blowing out the Cooper Rush led Falcons in Week 2. The Panthers are second in the league in scoring (behind the Bills) and through two weeks are the must have team in fantasy. Dave Canales has always been an underrated coach, and it’s a testament to his ability that the Panthers offense has performed at a high level despite a poor O-line (26th ranked by PFF). They are playing two backups at tackle, but it hasn’t stopped them from scoring over thirty points in back-to-back weeks. The Panthers have been playing fast (4th in seconds per play), and it looks like tempo is going to be a part of their offense regardless of game flow, after they played at an above average pace (13th in seconds per play for Week 2) last week in a blowout win. The Panthers have also been aggressive (4th in PROE) and it looks like new play caller Brad Idzik is going to be more pass happy than Canales was in previous seasons. If the Panthers continue playing quickly and aggressively, they are going to keep producing strong fantasy game environments.

The Browns defense looks average on paper, but they got man handled by the Jaguars before looking better against the Buccaneers. The Browns have been hurt through the air (23rd in DVOA) and smacked on the ground (27th in DVOA). The early DVOA numbers are worth noting, but the Browns have faced two above average offenses on the road, and their season long DVOA numbers might end up very different. There is nothing in the matchup that should tilt the Panthers away from their preferred method of attack, which looks like high tempo passing. The Panthers scored in bunches, but they’ve done it in catch up and blow out mode against two of the worst defenses in the league. The Browns aren’t going to be an elite defense like they were last year, but they’re probably better than their numbers indicate, and this will be their first game at home. Expect the Panthers to continue attacking aggressively, but they might not experience the same success they’ve enjoyed so far this season.

DFS Interpretation

Added Sep 24, 2026 · 8:33 PM ET

Updated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:07 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• Surprise, surprise, Drew Petzing’s offense ranks as one of the most predictable units in the league through two weeks. This was one of my primary concerns heading into the 2026 season.
• The reports this offseason indicating the Lions were working to expand Jameson Williams’ route tree were complete crap.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown has scored four touchdowns in two games, but the team’s end zone targets have gone as follows: LaPorta – 2, St. Brown – 1, Gibbs – 1, Williams – 1, TeSlaa – 1.
• Jahmyr Gibbs ranks third in backfield opportunity share at 92.1 percent, second in fantasy points per game at 27.2, and has finished as a top-three back in both weeks so far.
• The Jets are one of the most concentrated offenses through the air, filtering the bulk of the production to two players: Adonai Mitchell and Garrett Wilson.

HOW NEW YORK JETS WILL TRY TO WIN::

Aaron Glenn is a defensive-minded head coach and former defensive player, typically looking to manage the game on his way to victory. We saw that in a Week 1 win over the Titans and we saw that in an overtime Week 2 loss to the Packers. He’s not going to be the one pushing game environments. That said, this team hired a new offensive coordinator this offseason in Frank Reich that gives the offense a structure they haven’t had since before the Adam Gase days. What I’m getting at is this – we haven’t really seen this version of the Jets pushed away from how we would typically expect them to manage game environments, and the ceiling is much higher with the offensive improvements than it has been in recent years. We know how the Jets will try to win. The more interesting perspective here is diagnosing how frequently they will be forced to alter those plans this season.

Breece Hall got himself back into “workhorse territory” against the Packers in Week 2, now ranking 13th in backfield opportunity rate at 72.6 percent. That has resulted in 24 and 21 opportunities in his two games played, good for the sixth most opportunities in the league behind only Jahmyr Gibbs, Kenneth Walker III, Ashton Jeanty, Jonathan Taylor, and Bijan Robinson. He should remain a cornerstone of the offense, one that sees additional volume in game environments the Jets are able to control via their preferred method. Braelon Allen is the only other back on the roster to see an opportunity this season with 16 through two games. The Lions have allowed exactly two 100-yard rushers since the start of the 2024 season, with one of those coming in Week 2 against the Bills (James Cook). Yea, this is not the greatest rushing matchup out there.

Kelvin Sheppard’s Lions came out and were amongst the league-leaders in man coverage in Week 1 and then, understandably, played almost exclusively from zone against Josh Allen. I would expect that man coverage rate to tick back up against Geno Smith and the Jets. What has remained consistent is his elevated blitz rate (44.6 percent), which I also expect to continue forward amidst calls for his job in the media. The problem is he has been dealt a crap hand for the third consecutive season, this time again due to injury and minimal depth on the back end. Through two games, the Lions have allowed the most fantasy points to both wide receivers and tight ends. As for the Jets, only Adonai Mitchell and Garrett Wilson have accounted for more than a 10.8 percent team target market share, making this offense one of the most concentrated units in the league through the air.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Added Sep 24, 2026 · 6:27 PM ET

Updated Sep 25, 2026 · 3:57 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• WR Nico Collins has not practiced through Thursday after missing Week 2 with a hamstring injury. He appears highly unlikely to play against the Colts.
• Colts sent WR Alec Pierce to IR after he re-injured the heel he had surgery on in March, signing WR Darius Slayton to replace him on the roster.
• This game pits two offenses without their primary receiving options, likely confined to stringing together drives to move the football, against two defenses looking to force their opponents to march the field.
• The Colts became just the third team in the least decade to allow consecutive opponents to amass 500 yards of total offense.

HOW HOUSTON WILL TRY TO WIN::

Unfortunately for us, the improvements we were hoping to see from Nick Caley heading into his second season at the helm of the Houston offense have largely not come to fruition. The offense remains highly predictable due to stagnant personnel alignments situational tendencies, with heavy early-down rush rates behind a haphazard offensive line, leading to routinely finding themselves in 3rd-and-five or longer. It’s such a shame because the individual play designs look really good on tape. Route structuring is solid, with layering and diversification to stress multiple areas of the field. This team can play some solid football anchored by their defense, but they are going to consistently be in these one-score, chess match games unless or until they get better play sequencing and situational tendencies. It’s so hard to consistently ask your quarterback to navigate through long down-and-distance situations. Look at their game last week against the Bengals. They played them to a 0-0 game through 27 minutes, which included a botched snap on a field goal and a failed fourth down attempt just outside the red zone, ultimately falling 20-6. That came on the heels of a game against a Bills team that forced them from a conservative shell from the jump, against whom they managed to put up 381 yards of total offense in a back-and-forth affair. This team has some dynamism hidden underneath a conservative exoskeleton, most commonly requiring some outside force to pierce that veil. The final issue is the expected absence of Nico Collins, effectively removing the only viable downfield option from the offense.

After bordering on workhorse usage despite a near-even split in snaps in Week 1, David Montgomery was usurped by Woody Marks in opportunity rate against the Bengals, with the snaps remaining nearly even between the two. That makes projecting weekly volume difficult for the Texans until we’re proven otherwise, leaving very little in the way of both upside and our interest in attacking this unit in DFS. When you allow consecutive opponents to go for over 500 yards against you, it’s bound to have a trickle down effect on fantasy production allowed to all positions, leaving the Colts yielding the third most fantasy points to opposing backfields through two games. But again, a rising tide kind of raised all ships there. There is nothing in the matchup or scheme that should give us confidence in attacking either back.

We saw what the absence of Nico Collins meant to this offense last week, eventually filtering 14 (!!!) targets to tight end Dalton Schultz. We talked about the state of this unit leading into Week 2, with not much changing as we look ahead to Week 3 with Collins expected to miss another game, at minimum. Xavier Hutchinson and Kayshon Boutte led the team in route rate against the Bengals, each managing only 37 yards on nine and five targets, respectively. Neither has commanded targets at the professional level, while Jaylin Noel and Jared Wayne split snaps in situational roles. The Colts have functioned as an interior-funnel defense, away from two of the most talented corners in the league in Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward. Everything aligns for another spike in volume for Schultz, although he is highly unlikely to sniff the 14 targets he saw a week ago considering C.J. Stroud attempted 55 passes.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Added Sep 24, 2026 · 8:55 PM ET

Updated Sep 25, 2026 · 5:25 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• RB Kenneth Walker leads the league in carries, total yards from scrimmage, and rush yards after averaging 31.5 opportunities per game the first two weeks.
• Bobby Slowik’s Miami offense is one of the more putrid units on tape this season, and that’s saying a lot.
• T Josh Simmons missed practice again Wednesday with his back injury. The Chiefs have been starting rookie undrafted free agent Kahlil Benson at left tackle, who has performed admirably with the opportunity.
• WR Caleb Douglas picked up an ankle injury in Miami’s Week 2 loss to the 49ers. Monitor his status the rest of the week, but I currently expect him to miss Week 3.

HOW KANSAS CITY WILL TRY TO WIN::

The injection of Kenneth Walker into this Kansas City offense has returned them to one of the most dynamic and schematically diverse units in the league. The reasons aren’t the same as they were back in the Tyreek Hill days, but teams are no longer able to clog the middle of the field with an additional defender from zone, knowing the Chiefs simultaneously wouldn’t be able to run or attack deep. This team still doesn’t have the downfield chops they once did, but head coach Andy Reid has been able to keep opponents off balance through sequencing and situational unpredictability. Their offensive line, while no longer completely dominant, has performed well as a unit to begin the young season, blocking to the 10th best ARBY (2.85) while allowing the ninth lowest pressure rate, all with a rookie undrafted free agent starting both games at left tackle in the place of the injured Josh Simmons. Kahlil Benson has allowed six total pressures through two games but ranks as a top-15 tackle in run-blocking metrics, per Pro Football Focus. Add the magic man himself back into the lineup and we’re starting to see how dynamic this offense can be once again. On the other side of the ball, the reintegration of a familiar face in L’Jarius Sneed and the presence of first-round corner Mansoor Delane bring cohesion to what had been an up-and-down defense, while defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo continues to be one of the more situationally adept play callers in the league.

Walker is proving to be that dude in Kansas City, and the Chiefs have proven to be completely unafraid of lowering their dollar-to-touch ratio after signing him to a three-year deal this offseason. All Walker has done in his first two games for the Chiefs is handle 47 carries and account for 16 targets, good for an average of 31.5 opportunities per game, on an 81.5 percent backfield opportunity share. He leads the league in both total yards from scrimmage and rushing yards on the backs of a gaudy 6.2 yards per carry, adding two touchdowns to his ledger. We can debate the level of competition through two weeks all we want, but that matters not as the Chiefs turn the page to a Week 3 matchup with a Dolphins team that has seen 32 carries per game. The Dolphins actually rank near the middle of the pack in both yards allowed per carry and defensive ARBY, making this less of a cake-walk matchup than the general public will likely assume. Consider it a neutral-to-positive pure rushing matchup on the ground.

One of the aspects of the offense to change following the addition of Walker is the roles of the remaining skill position players. The team continues to utilize screens at an elevated rate, something we have grown accustomed to in Reid’s offense, but it is now mostly Walker in that role. That has pushed Rashee Rice’s aDOT up slightly to 6.4. Tyquan Thornton remains in a near downfield-only role (third-ranked 24.2 aDOT), while both Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce remain mostly confined to the intermediate areas of the field. Rice and Kelce are not massive YAC threats (I say that tongue-in-cheek, knowing that Kelce put up massive YAC in Week 1), again pointing to the fluidity in play calling due to the addition of a dynamic piece in the backfield as the primary reason for improved efficiency. Due to their low-aDOT roles, both Rice and Kelce are going to require immense volume to return GPP-worthy scores, even at somewhat depressed salaries. Thornton sees mostly empty yards but is always a threat to break one off with such a deep, yet confined, role. That said, Patrick Mahomes quietly remains one of the league’s worst downfield passers in recent years. Finally, Kelce appears to have turned back the clock, at least a little bit, looking more spry in and out of routes these first two games than he did at any point last season.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Added Sep 23, 2026 · 10:29 PM ET

Updated Sep 25, 2026 · 5:35 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• Titans rank 32nd in average time of possession at a silly-low 22:24. The Giants’ 27:25 time of possession in Week 2 with Jameis Winston under center would rank 29th.
• Brian Daboll #revengenarrative alert. I don’t know if that’s really a thing, and his offense has been downright hard to watch on tape, but something has got to give here.
• QB Jaxson Dart could be out for the season with an MCL injury, but will most certainly miss Week 3.
• WR Malik Nabers aggravated an existing shoulder issue in Week 2. I’m writing this game up before the first injury report of the week, but I expect him to play through the ailment after returning to the game against the Rams.
• QB Cam Ward ranks dead last in deep throw rate through two games.
• QB Jameis Winston has averaged just 6.56 yards per pass attempt against two-high alignments since 2023 – the Titans have run the seventh most two-high through two games.

HOW TENNESSEE WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Titans are averaging 243.0 yards per game (31st), 15.0 points per game (26th, tied), and 50.0 offensive plays per game (32nd) through two weeks. Both of their games so far have come at home and they now find themselves on the road for the first time. The offense is hamstrung by ineffective quarterback play, while Cam Ward has the lowest deep throw rate in the league through two weeks (1.9 percent), also carrying a 28th-ranked passing EPA. The Titans rank seventh in 11-personnel rate at 68.9 percent, 30th in pass rate from neutral game script, and fifth in pass rate from negative script, simply highlighting their inability to carry their pre-game plan deep into games. One of the bigger problems I see with the offense is the disconnect between the design of individual plays and Ward’s ability to grasp and execute those concepts, something that is likely to continue until one of two things happen – either Ward takes a significant step forward or Brian Daboll alters the functionality of the offense to simplify things for Ward. I think we can say, with a high level of confidence, that the quicker fix is for Daboll to make the change. We can also say that doing so would not help to develop a quarterback they have invested significantly in, meaning we may not see those changes for quite some time, if at all.

The Titans rank a non-putrid 14th in adjusted run-blocking yards (ARBY), per statrankings.com, with both Tyjae Spears (18th) and Tony Pollard (22nd) in the top-24 in rushing EPA/play. The team actually ranks ninth in yards per carry (4.4), 14th in third down conversion rate (40 percent), and 18th in red zone touchdown rate (60 percent), but have run the fewest offensive plays per game due to their defense’s inability to get off the field. That has led to only 22:24 of average time of possession against the Jets and Eagles. Bolstering their ability to sustain the offense via the ground game is a matchup against a Giants defense currently allowing the highest ARBY (3.81) and second-most running back yards per carry (5.62) through two games. Look for the Titans to attempt to control the line of scrimmage with the football in an attempt to keep from getting themselves in long down-and-distance situations, somewhat shielding Ward in the process.

Calvin Ridley and Elic Ayomanor appear to be sharing the load as the team’s WR3, with rookie Carnell Tate (84.1 percent) and veteran slot man Wan’Dale Robinson (79.4 percent) handily leading the team in route participation through two games. I expect Ayomanor to eventually take over more of the WR3 role as the season progresses. Tight end Gunnar Helm ranks third on the team in route participation at 63.5 percent. Running back Tyjae Spears currently leads the team in targets per route run at 0.29, followed by Tate at 0.21, Ayomanor at 0.19, and Helm at 0.18. Robinson has not seen the usage we expected when he was signed this offseason, currently chilling at a paltry 0.14 TPRR, while Ridley is running sprints with a 0.05 TPRR. The big picture is that no pass-catcher has truly emerged as the alpha in this offense, an issue that could persist throughout the season. The offense has clearly delineated roles, with Ayomanor (12.3 aDOT) and Tate (10.6) the primary intermediate-to-downfield options and Robinson (4.1) and Helm (2.3) the primary short-area options, with both backs involved through the air on screens and leaks. As was touched on above, there is room in this matchup for one of the downfield options to pop on a per-target basis, but I question the true ceiling of all pass catchers.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Added Sep 23, 2026 · 12:33 PM ET

Published Sep 24, 2026 · 11:15 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• The Bengals enter Week 3 with a 2-0 record behind a rejuvenated defense and balanced offense, while the Steelers beat the dysfunctional Falcons and were steamrolled by the Patriots.
• Steelers running back Rico Dowdle missed practice Wednesday and is in a boot with a toe injury that sidelined him for the second half of Week 2.
• There seems to be no end in sight for the contract dispute Pittsburgh is having with star cornerback Joey Porter Jr., which could spell trouble against the Bengals elite receivers.
• The Steelers defense leads the NFL in “Havoc Rate” and ranks fourth in “Stuff Rate,” per statrankings.com. This could pose a major challenge for a Bengals line trying to clean up protection issues after Joe Burrow was sacked five times last week.

HOW CINCINNATI WILL TRY TO WIN::

Over the past few seasons we have come to expect a few common things from the Bengals. An elite passing game. Occasionally play calling that is head scratching in how conservative it is. Below average offensive line play. A poor defense that was especially bad against the run and tight ends. Through two weeks of the 2026 season, some of those things have stayed the same while some appear to have been cleaned up. Their running game is still mediocre, while their passing game is still elite (although they haven’t had one of their vintage games yet). Their line is a middle tier unit rather than a bottom-end one we have seen in past seasons. Their run defense has been bolstered by the addition of defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, while their pass defense continues to be strong against wide receivers but just got crushed by Dalton Schultz in Week 2.

After opening the season with two defenses that tend to be extremely argon against the run in the Bucs and Texans, the Bengals get a Steelers defense this week that just got gauged by the Patriots. It is hard to take much from Pittsburgh’s Week 1 win over the Falcons as their offense was neutered with Cooper Rush under center. The Steelers run defense profiles as an average matchup for Cincinnati that should allow them to have some offensive balance. The Bengals have been top-5 in the NFL in PROE in recent seasons and are ranked 5th once again this season. They’ll be throwing the ball plenty, with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at the center of those plans. Chase made a couple of big plays last week and Higgins fell just shy of 100 receiving yards. The Steelers continue to play without star cornerback Joey Porter Jr. due to a contract dispute. Without him, they are playing the 3rd lowest rate of man coverage and are blitzing and getting pressure on the QB at a bottom-10 rate. Their most frequent coverage looks have been Cover-2 and Cover-4 (“Quarters”), which are defenses designed to limit explosive plays and keep the ball in front of them. Expect another conservative defensive approach for Pittsburgh as they try to force the Bengals to march the field through sustaining drives and limiting explosive plays. This matchup calls for the Chases (Ja’Marr and Brown) to be the focal points of the offense, with Brown continuing his high usage (23 touches in both games so far) and Ja’Marr being peppered with targets in the short to intermediate areas of the field and leveraging his elite ability with the ball in his hands.

DFS+ Interpretations::

Added Sep 24, 2026 · 11:15 PM ET

Published Sep 25, 2026 · 7:41 AM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• With Commanders rookie star Jayden Daniels sidelined by a dislocated left elbow, veteran backup Marcus Mariota takes over as the starting quarterback for Washington’s home opener.
• The Seahawks have their own quarterback situation brewing, as they decide whether to start Sam Darnold, who returned to practice and is trying to return from a glute injury, or stick with backup Drew Lock, who threw for three touchdowns last week.
• Washington has four other starters who also missed the first two days of pra
• Seattle wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is dominating the league through two weeks, leading the NFL in receiving yards and touchdowns.
• The Washington secondary has been torched through two weeks and is dealing with significant issues that may not be fixable against strong passing games.

HOW SEATTLE WILL TRY TO WIN::

Seattle’s offensive approach has not changed much this season, despite their change in offensive coordinator. As they returned most everyone on that side of the ball, the biggest worry entering the season was losing offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to the Raiders and whether that would cause issues for them. Once the season began, they lost quarterback Sam Darnold on their first drive to a hip/glute injury that looked serious and that became their newest concern. However, both of those concerns seem to be muted at this point after Drew Lock filled in admirably for the last two games and Darnold returned to a limited practice on Wednesday and then a full practice on Thursday while the offense operated at a high level in the second half of Week 1 and then continued that in the second half of Week 2.

The play calling has been eerily similar to 2025, with Seattle ranking dead last in overall pass rate and 28th in pass rate over expectation. This is once again a run-heavy offensive approach that relies on explosive and efficient passing when it does throw the ball. The running game has not provided much in terms of yardage or explosive plays, while ranking in the bottom-10 in most efficiency metrics. They have been splitting up their backfield usage between rookie Jadarian Price, George Holani, and Emanuel Wilson. Price left last week with a chest contusion during the blowout, but has been practicing to start the week. This split seems likely to continue in Week 3 with Price and Holani splitting most of the work, while Holani plays in clear passing situations, and Wilson operating as the primary short yardage back.

This week the matchup with Washington may force Seattle’s hand into a higher pass rate than they would prefer as the Commanders are solid against the run but have been torn up through the air. The Commanders are looking like they could end up as one of the league’s bigger “pass funnel” defenses. Washington is likely to be without safety Nick Cross and linebacker Frankie Luvu in this matchup as well. When Seattle throws the ball, everything starts and ends with Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Both quarterbacks understand their assignment – get JSN the ball. After leading the league with a 34% target share in 2025, JSN has had a massive 44% share through two weeks. Operating as a movable chess piece who motions often and runs routes from all over the field, the Seahawks simply always find a way to get him the ball. Washington is 5th in the NFL in blitz rate and 28th in man coverage rate. Even if Washington tries to key on JSN or take him away, they aren’t really capable of it. The Seahawks will play how they always do relying their defense and JSN to carry them, while having a broad workload distribution among their backfield as well as the remainder of their receiving corps.

DFS+ Interpretations::

Added Sep 25, 2026 · 7:41 AM ET

Updated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:19 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• CB Carlton Davis III returned to a full practice Wednesday after missing Week 2, but the Patriots saw S Craig Woodson and LBs Quintayvion Hutchins and Dre’Mont Jones miss to start the week.
• WR Jakobi Meyers and RB LeQuint Allen Jr. were limited for the Jaguars to start the week. Both started Week 2 prep the same way but were ultimately active.
• This is a really fun game from a real-world perspective, likely to be one of the “chess match” games of the week.
• Jaguars HC Liam Coen and Patriots OC Josh McDaniels both rank in the top five in the league in play caller tendencies, per statrankings.com, which measures things like personnel diversification, situational tendencies, predictability, and sequencing.
• Parker Washington is really the only name that jumps off the page from this one, but he does so in a big way.

HOW NEW ENGLAND WILL TRY TO WIN::

The blueprint we have grown accustomed to from Mike Vrabel’s Patriots remains largely intact in 2026. Vrabel is not going to push many games on his own, instead relying on a defense with one of the better secondaries in the league to force opponents to string together drives, during which their physical and athletic talent can generate disruption. After ranking third in points allowed per game during their Super Bowl run a season ago, the Patriots have ceded the fewest points per game through two weeks of 2026, against the Seahawks (albeit in a game where Seattle lost its starting quarterback in the first quarter) and Steelers (albeit they suck). Iregardless (those that listened to The Slate in Week 2 will catch that reference – I know it’s not a word; also, Mr. editor, leave that in) of the circumstances, the big picture here is that we have a pretty clear picture about how the Patriots will continue to try to win games. For those who missed The Slate last week (you should probably sign up for Inner Circle so that doesn’t happen again), I used to use incorrect words when I was an instructor teaching kids how to fight the F-18 because it causes you to listen to the words that come out immediately following the incorrect word. That was the emphasis again here. To bring it full circle, the Patriots have averaged a near-league-average 60.0 offensive plays per game through two weeks after averaging 62.0 plays per game in 2025, broken down further to 27.5 pass attempts per game and 32.5 rush attempts per game.

The New England backfield picture became a bit more muddied after yet another fumble early in Week 2 from Rhamondre Stevenson, who continues to lead the league in total fumbles since the start of the 2024 season. After being inactive in Week 1 due to injury, a game in which Stevenson operated as a true workhorse, TreVeyon Henderson led the team with a 60 percent snap rate and 57.1 percent opportunity share following Stevenson’s fumble. Henderson parlayed the uptick in work into a 76-1 rushing line on 16 carries. He was not targeted in the passing game whilst in a route on almost 40 percent of the team’s dropbacks. That said, Vrabel continues to display confidence in Stevenson, as he did last year and the year before, saying that Stevenson will “maintain a major role” in a split backfield with Henderson, brushing off the idea of benching Stevenson to the media. While that can still be the case, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Henderson operate as the lead back in the split backfield over Stevenson in the immediate future. Tons of uncertainty here regarding expected usage and opportunity split. Finally, a matchup against the Jaguars remains a pass-funnel spot, with the team allowing 3.8 yards per carry to start the new season after holding opponents to 3.9 yards per carry in 2025.

The absence of A.J. Brown in Week 2 left tight end Hunter Henry to lead the team in route participation at 77.8 percent, followed by Romeo Doubs (74.1 percent), Mack Hollins (74.1 percent), DeMario Douglas (66.7 percent), and Kyle Williams (33.3 percent). The combination of TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson were in a route at a ridiculous-for-a-backfield 77.8 percent, effectively matching that of team-leading Henry. Douglas continues to operate in a near slot-only role (89.1 percent slot snap rate), leaving Doubs and Hollins as the primary perimeter options, neither of whom is going to command targets at an elite rate in this offense. In fact, no player has higher than a 0.21 TPRR through two weeks, with that player being Stevenson. Not a ton to love from the Patriots through the air outside of the potential for Henry to provide touchdown-driven upside at a thin position.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Added Sep 24, 2026 · 3:24 PM ET

Published Sep 24, 2026 · 11:14 AM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Brock Purdy has been on fire so far this season and leads the NFL with an 80.4% completion rate while taking zero sacks two games, piloting an offense that is averaging 31 points per game and has won their two games by an average of 21 points.
• Arizona’s secondary is dealing with injuries in the secondary and trying to regroup after surrendering three touchdowns to Jaxon Smith-Njigba in a 31-7 loss to Seattle.
• San Francisco’s receiving corps continues to shrink as they now lost Demarcus Robinson to a high ankle sprain.
• Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. continues to disappoint, while Arizona’s prized rookie Jeremiyah Love operates in an even, and so far unproductive, timeshare.

HOW ARIZONA WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Cardinals have continued to rely heavily on Jacoby Brissett through two weeks, ranking 6th in pass rate over expectation after letting Brissett sling it the second half of the 2025 season. The Cardinals backfield has been a relatively even split between third overall pick Jeremiyah Love and free agent acquisition Tyler Allgeier. The snap count is actually in about a 60/40 split with Allgeier getting more work, while their opportunities have been 26 for Allgeier and 27 for Love so far. Love has a goal line touchdown rush and has been the preferred option in the receiving game, as the Cardinals seem intent on preserving their prized rookie and limiting his touches, but are leveraging his explosiveness and skill set in higher leverage situations – an approach that actually makes sense after they made the mind numbing decision to give him 14 carries in their first preseason game, which led to him sustaining a high ankle sprain. Love has looked good on tape and looks like himself despite that August setback, but the running game has struggled through two weeks against the Chargers defense that leads the league in opponent rush yards per attempt and the vaunted Seattle defense in Week 2. This week they face a 49ers defense that has been strong against the run thus far as they held the Rams vaunted rushing attack and De’Von Achane of the Dolphins in check.

Through the air, there is no question that Trey McBride is this team’s engine. Expect that to once again be the case against a 49ers defense that has been great on the perimeter of the field and ranks 5th in the league in QB hit rate through two weeks after playing two very different styles of quarterback in Matthew Stafford and Malik Willis. Jacoby Brissett is anything but what you would call a “mobile” quarterback and getting the ball out quickly will be at a premium in this matchup. McBride is 3rd in the NFL among all players with an insane 43.8% first read target rate. Honestly, sometimes it feels like he is Brissett’s first AND second read. After McBride, things get spread out a bit. Kendrick Bourne and Michael Wilson work in the short to intermediate areas of the field and will likely find more separation this week than they did against Seattle’s lockdown secondary. Marvin Harrison Jr. will get some cardio in, but the film has not been kind and guessing if/when he will come to life feels like a fool’s errand at this point. This does seem like the week where Love will be more involved in the passing game, as Week 1 in Los Angeles the Cardinals played with a lead most of the game – which is unlikely to happen here – and Week 2 in Seattle the offense was under duress all game and unable to sustain drives. San Francisco’s offense is likely to have a lot of success here, putting Arizona in catch-up mode, and the 49ers defense is not as suffocating as the Seahawks so the Cardinals should move the ball better and more aggressively this week.

DFS+ Interpretations::

Added Sep 24, 2026 · 11:14 AM ET

Published Sep 25, 2026 · 12:47 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• The Vikings lead the NFC North through two weeks with a 2-0 record and both of their wins have come against divisional opponents.
• Minnesota welcomes back quarterback Kyler Murray as their starter, after he missed the last two games with a concussion.
• The Vikings backfield is quickly running low on depth after losing Jordan Mason to IR and now having veteran Aaron Jones Sr. dealing with a knee injury.
• This game features the two highest blitz rate defenses in the league that are facing a couple of inconsistent quarterbacks.
• Bucky Irving has emerged as the feature back for the Bucs and seems to have clearly distanced himself from offseason acquisition Kenneth Gainwell.

HOW MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Vikings lead the NFC North after wins over the Packers and Bears thanks to their once again dominant and opportunistic defense along with an offense that has turned the ball over once thus far. Minnesota’s offense ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play despite facing relatively poor defenses in Green Bay and Chicago. Week 1 featured a first quarter quarterback change due to Kyler Murray’s concussion and Week 2 was marred by rainy weather and a sloppy field in Chicago, so the potential is there for Minnesota to look better this week with Murray returning and no precipitation currently in the forecast.

The Vikings rode their defense forcing turnovers and some big plays from Justin Jefferson en route to a comeback win over the Packers. Then, in Week 2, they rode their running game with Aaron Jones handling the rock 23 times and neither team scoring a touchdown. Minnesota converted only three of 13 third downs, but did not turn the ball over in that game. The Vikings will be without Jordan Mason for a few weeks and the 31-year old Jones is now battling a knee injury. They don’t have much depth behind Jones in the backfield, so expect a slightly higher pass rate this week and the team to utilize Murray’s legs more often than they did with Wentz. The Bucs rank second in the NFL in blitz rate and are once again one of the stronger run defenses in the league behind their strong front seven that is anchored by all pro defensive tackle Vita Vea.

When the Vikings take to the air, expect Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to be busy. The Bucs are again profiling as a pass funnel defense thanks to their strong defensive front and leaky secondary. They made Deshaun Watson look good in Week 2 and Kyler Murray seems like a decent comp to Watson, but with better receivers. Murray can run, and he will likely need to in order to extend some plays and deal with the Bucs pass rush. The interior pressure has always been a problem for the shorter Murray and he tends to hold the ball for a long time, which could also pose a problem with this aggressive Bucs team. Ultimately, however, the aggression we see from the Vikings passing game will likely depend on how well the Bucs offense is able to move the ball.

DFS+ Interpretations::

Added Sep 25, 2026 · 12:47 PM ET

Published Sep 24, 2026 · 7:52 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• After two seasons of hosting an NFL game in Sao Paulo, this game marks the NFL’s first-ever regular-season game staged in Rio de Janeiro, bringing a high-stakes interconference matchup to a global stage.
• Both teams enter Week 3 looking to gain momentum; Dallas is coming off a 37-20 win over Washington, while Baltimore is eager to bounce back from a tough Week 2 loss to the New Orleans Saints.
• Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers has not practiced yet this week after missing the second half of Week 1 with a hamstring injury and being sidelined for Week 2.
• The Cowboys’ defense has struggled to stop the run early in the season, giving up big yardage to the Giants and Commanders. This week they face a massive test against Baltimore’s elite rushing attack.
• Dallas is unlikely to be efficient running the ball this week as their inefficient rushing attack meets the best defensive front they have seen so far. This means they will rely heavily on their passing game to sustain drives and create chunk plays.
• Which team is able to play from ahead will have a huge impact on the way this game plays out, as the Ravens are built to play with a lead and ill-equipped to play from behind while they are missing Flowers.

HOW BALTIMORE WILL TRY TO WIN::

Baltimore was off to an incredible start in Week 1 and their offense looked unstoppable, but then star wide receiver Zay Flowers suffered a hamstring injury late in the second half. Baltimore coasted to a victory in that game over the Colts and Derrick Henry carried the load in the second half for the Ravens. That Colts defense got shredded again by the Chiefs in Week 2, however, which at this point in the season makes it harder to know whether that season opening performance was truly about Baltimore being awesome or just a result of the matchup. The Colts defense has given up 1,029 yards through two games, the second most in NFL history. Baltimore scored only 10 points in the second half of Week 1 without Flowers and were held to 17 points by the Saints in their Week 2 loss. Flowers missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday this week and seems unlikely to suit up against Dallas.

The absence of Flowers opened up opportunities for Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews in Week 2, which Bateman in particular took advantage of to the tune of seven receptions, 88 yards, and a touchdown. Baltimore built a 14-3 lead over the Saints last week, but stayed a little bit pass happy with their second half play calling which came back to bite them. This week against Dallas the game plan is likely to be very straightforward – get the ball to the “Big Dog,” Derrick Henry. After a dominant performance against the Colts, Henry had a pedestrian outing in Week 2. This week he gets a Dallas defense that ranks 32nd in the NFL in “Stuff Rate,” has allowed 5.1 yards per carry to the Giants and Commanders, and has the 3rd most missed tackles in the league. The Ravens lead the NFL in success rate on rushing plays and are second in the league in EPA per rush. All signs in this one point to Baltimore relying heavily on their running game and building everything else out from there. Expect Henry to carry the ball a minimum of 18 times and don’t be surprised if he sees upwards of 30 opportunities. The Dallas defense is likely to load the box eventually and Baltimore will take some downfield shots to make them pay. Expect a more balanced to run-heavy approach in this game for Baltimore due to the matchup as well as the absence of Flowers.

DFS+ Interpretations::

Added Sep 24, 2026 · 7:52 PM ET

Published Sep 25, 2026 · 11:27 AM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak, who previously served as the Saints’ offensive coordinator in 2024, returns to New Orleans to match wits with the Saints’ head coach and play-caller, Kellen Moore.
• These offenses have differing offensive approaches, with New Orleans playing fast and throwing at a high rate while the Raiders play slow and are very balanced.
• Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty enters the game with 210 scrimmage yards through two weeks and will face a Saints defense that has been tested by Jahmyr Gibbs and Derrick Henry already.
• The Raiders’ defense leads the NFL in pressure rate, spearheaded by superstar Maxx Crosby and edge rusher Kwity Paye. The Saints offensive line will likely be the best they have seen thus far, however.
• Raiders star tight end Brock Bowers has returned to practice and seems likely to play this week, which alters the geometry of the Raiders offense and makes them a more formidable unit.

HOW LAS VEGAS WILL TRY TO WIN::

We saw the Raiders in Week 1 control the game against Miami and feature star running back Ashton Jeanty, who responded with the second best game of his young career and showed he is fully capable of operating as a bell cow for this team. It also showed us that Klint Kubiak is fully capable of adjusting to his personnel after he rotated backs in Seattle and is now building his offense around Jeanty. Then, in Week 2, the Raiders running game stalled a bit and Jeanty dropped a couple of easy passes. No worries, however, as Tre Tucker stepped up with multiple big plays and showed how well he fits into Kubiak’s scheme as a speed demon capable of generating the trademark explosive plays we have seen from Kubiak at his previous stops. This week the Raiders appear to be on the cusp of adding tight end Brock Bowers back to the mix after he missed the first two games with a knee issue that popped up just before the season.

The Saints defense has actually played well this season as they have faced the Lions and Ravens high powered offenses and held them to 24 and 17 points in regulation, respectively. The Saints are middle of the pack in most efficiency metrics, ranking 17th in yards per play allowed and 19th in opponent passer rating. Again, these middle of the road metrics are actually a positive for the New Orleans defense when you consider their opponents thus far. The Ravens averaged 7.9 yards per play in Week 1, then 5.6 yards per play against the Saints. The Lions averaged 5.1 yards per play against the Saints in Week 1, then 5.7 yards per play against the Bills in Week 2. This week the Raiders are likely to face their toughest defensive test after facing the Dolphins and Chargers to open the season. Assuming Bowers returns, we should expect the Raiders to operate from “12” personnel with two tight ends on the field at a high rate after ranking 20th in the NFL in 12-personnel rate through two weeks. Bowers and Michael Mayer form one of the best tight end duos in the league and Kubiak will take advantage of that with heavier personnel to also spark their running game. It won’t be shocking if Bowers has his snaps limited a bit in his return, with Mayer maintaining his full-time role and Bowers taking some of their receivers off the field more. Those two will be heavily involved in the short and intermediate areas, while Jeanty is featured once again and Tucker has some shot plays strategically designed for him. The biggest issue for New Orleans thus far has been allowing opponents to run the ball at a clip of 5.1 yards per attempt, so something in between Jeanty’s epic Week 1 performance and disappointing Week 2 outing should be expected.

DFS+ Interpretations::

Added Sep 25, 2026 · 11:27 AM ET

Published Sep 27, 2026 · 4:46 PM ET

Published Sep 27, 2026 · 9:51 PM ET