Chargers (

21.75) at
Bills (

28.75)

Updated Sep 25, 2026 · 5:32 PM ET

HIBy HilowBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Hilow is a tournament champion and game-theory specialist focused on mid- and high-stakes single-entry and three-max play. In the NFL Edge he maps how each team will try to win and where the clearest DFS leverage sits.

Go deeper: The Theory of Roster Construction→

GAME OVERVIEW::

• The Bills have allowed both opponents thus far to score 31 points, while averaging a league-leading 38.5 points per game themselves. We’re quickly approaching “2024 Detroit Lions” territory here – high-powered offense and poor defense.
• I’m writing this game up before the full Wednesday practice report from the Bills, but it currently looks as if WR DJ Moore practiced in some capacity and WR Keon Coleman missed, which was not the expectation following Moore’s departure from Week 2 with a shoulder injury.
• James Cook currently leads the league in backfield opportunity rate at a staggering 95.3 percent.
• The Bills have allowed both opponents thus far to score 31 points against them.
• The Chargers offensive line is going to remain an issue, particularly against a defense generating pressure at the sixth highest rate through two games.

HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN::

I’m not sure what to make of the Chargers through two weeks. They came out and looked absolutely phenomenal on their first two possessions of Week 1, then Ladd McConkey went down and the offense couldn’t move the football, then they lost two “starting” tight ends in Week 2. Both of the games they have played so far have involved key injuries during the game that forced them to adjust on the fly, something McDaniel, being an astute game planner, has proven to struggle with in previous seasons. They are now left with a pass-catching-only tight end in Oronde Gadsden II and three practice squad level tight ends behind him. One of the reasons I loved McConkey in Best Ball was for the expectation that the offense would be largely reliant on heavy personnel considering their offseason actions. With the tight ends out of the picture, I think we see a shift to heavier rates of 21- and 11-personnel, effectively eliminating 12 out of necessity. The good news is that McDaniel has a week to prepare within that structure. The bad news is that I expect both Quentin Johnston and Tre Harris to see their snap rates and route participation increase in the short term. Not that that expectation completely nerfs McConkey, it’s just a much better setup to be competing for targets with two or three players on the field that aren’t really threats for elite volume. Another key aspect of this team’s current state is an offensive line already struggling through significant injuries, leading to suboptimal play through two games (picked up two more offensive line injuries last week that may or may not keep them out in Week 3). The Chargers have blocked to a 21st-ranked 2.41 ARBY while their backs have averaged just 3.86 yards per carry. They’ve also allowed 12.5 pressures on an average of only 33 dropbacks per game, which is the seventh highest pressure rate allowed (poor Baker Mayfield is at 53.9 percent, lolz). McDaniel is going to be forced to adopt a more ball-out-quick offensive structure to negate some of those shortcomings, particularly against a Bills defense generating pressure at the sixth highest rate in the league (37.2 percent).

Omarion Hampton currently ranks 10th in the league in backfield opportunity share at 78.7 percent, playing as a true workhorse through two games. Due to the previously mentioned offensive line struggles, he is averaging only 3.9 yards per carry on 35 totes, significantly impacting his ceiling in the process. Hampton came into the league with plus burst, particularly for a back of his size (220 pounds), but it hasn’t translated well in McDaniel’s offense, for whatever reason. The Bills have allowed only 2.17 ARBY and 3.50 yards per carry to opposing backfields through two contests, which is a significant improvement from seasons past. They also could be without two starters along the offensive line, pending the health of Ed Oliver. What I see on tape is an athletic linebacker corps that quickly fills gaps in a 3-4 base, so maybe those tendencies carry forward into trend, although it is much too early to make sweeping generalizations just yet. Consider it a neutral matchup on the ground considering all variables.

As we uncovered above, it is likeliest to be the passing game that gets the job done for the Chargers, and it almost has to be a ball-out-quick design to find success. I’m not saying either player is guaranteed success within that setup, but it is most likely to be McConkey and/or Gadsden. The Bills have allowed a middling 8.4 defensive aDOT, accompanied by a 4.1 average yards after catch per reception and the 10th highest tight end target rate allowed. They have also allowed the third most completions (26.0) on the fifth most pass attempts faced per game (38.0), which should continue to be a trend considering the weekly upside of their offense. Interestingly enough, no pass-catcher was in a route on greater than a 74.2 percent frequency in either week, with both of those weeks including normal contributors that left early. Gadsden has the most room to grow after a lowly 41.9 percent route participation in Week 2, although all of McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Tre Harris could see an uptick in route rate moving forward after floating near the 70 percent range through two games.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Added Sep 23, 2026 · 6:58 PM ET