XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

It’s already Week 3, and this season is flying by. We start off the week with the Dolphins visiting the Bills for a big 49.5 total game in which Buffalo is favored by 11.5 or 12.5, depending on where you look. The Dolphins defense has looked pretty atrocious to start the season, while the Bills have scored 30 and 41 points in their first two games, which is driving the high total in this one. 

INJURY UPDATE: After writing this article, Jaylen Waddle showed up on the injury report as questionable. Looks like he’s likely to play, but if he misses or is at all limited, it adds more weight to the idea of Achane being used more out wide with Wright also on the field at the same time. It would also be a big boost to Washington and Westbrook-Ikhine.

BUFFALO

We’ll start with the Bills, where James Cook has had a red-hot start to the season, scoring 3 touchdowns and racking up 176 rushing yards and a 6/61 line through the air. Not bad for two games. What’s more important is what while Cook’s snap counts are still modest (keep in mind the Bills pulled their starters last game as they blow out the Jets), his share of rushing work is excellent – he saw 13 of 16 RB carries in Week 1 and 21 of 32 in Week 2 (and keep in mind that Week 2 had some garbage time in which Ray Davis got some extra carries). The knock against Cook has always been a combination of volume and Josh Allen vulturing touchdowns. Those concerns are still valid (Josh Allen has 5 carries inside the 5-yard line compared to just three for Cook), but Cook getting to 21 carries in an easy win would be awfully nice for his value if it turns out to be a trend. Will it? I don’t know – given what we’ve seen from Buffalo for years, I’d bet against it – but I could be wrong. What we do know is that Cook’s ceiling is excellent, even with modest volume, because of how good an offense Buffalo has. We know the matchup is excellent against a mediocre Dolphins D (their strength is their line but “strength” is just in comparative terms, as so far they have not been very good against the run). Behind Cook, Ty Johnson has been in a very modest role to start the season with just 7 touches in two games, but I expect better things are coming for him, and he’s a viable punt play (with no real floor). Ray Davis is unlikely to see much work unless the game blows out, but with the Bills being huge home favorites, he deserves to be in onslaught player pools. Otherwise, you’re just hoping for a lucky TD. 

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In the passing game, the Bills are the absolute worst. One week after Keon Coleman played 88% of the snaps and looked like he might be the new WR1, he only played 51% of the snaps (again, everyone played fewer than normal, but no WR going over 51% is more like the Bills of old, with them spreading things around from the start). Look, when it comes to Bills pass catchers, your guess is really as good as mine. Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Josh Palmer should be the main guys, but Elijah Moore and Tyrell Shavers are going to play more than anyone (including Bills fans) wants to see. Coleman’s the best bet here as a talented second-year receiver who is leading the team in targets so far, performed well in Week 1, and could well take a step forward this season, but “best” is still fairly fragile. At just $6,800, he’s a risk worth taking in my opinion. Shakir is fine – his per-target upside is modest, so he usually needs volume or a score to pay off – he’s better in builds based around competitive games, and there isn’t really anything that makes him stand out to me beyond just being attached to a good offense. Palmer is interesting as he’s priced around the kickers and won’t project especially well (that price range is often a wasteland for skill position players; they get lost among the kickers and their ownership is low), but he’s somewhat quietly second on the team in targets while also leading in yards per reception. Good volume plus deep targets = boom potential once things connect, and this Miami secondary is pretty darn bad. Moore and Shavers should be in player pools, but both are thin.

At tight end, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox are still splitting time (somewhat inexplicably) with Knox, oddly, leading the way. They’re basically just eating each other’s ceiling. Kincaid has 10 targets to Knox’s 7 and is also a much better pass catcher. He’s clearly the stronger play of the two, but Knox is cheap enough to be a viable punt, as he’s in the “if he catches 1 or 2 passes and finds the end zone, he’ll probably be optimal” price range. TE3 Jackson Hawes isn’t likely to play a ton in a competitive game, but he’s caught a pass in both games, he’s $600, and thus he can also be viewed as a punt.

Eight viable pass catchers, not including running backs? Cool, thanks, Buffalo. Maybe just play your best players more. My overall favorites in order are Coleman, Palmer, and Kincaid, with the rest just being guys I’d mix and match into builds. 

MIAMI

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY HILOW >>

• These two defenses have allowed the fewest (Cleveland, 2.1) and second fewest (Green Bay, 2.4) yards per carry in the league through two weeks.
• Rookie RB Quinshon Judkins saw 13 opportunities on just 20 offensive snaps in his first professional game, telling me this team badly wants him as their lead back. The problem is that he missed the entirety of the offseason and preseason in his rookie year while dealing with legal issues, meaning it is likely to take time for that to develop.
• Packers WR Jayden Reed underwent surgery on his collarbone and foot earlier this week and will miss significant time.
• Tucker Kraft, fantasy’s TE1 through two weeks, appears to be the biggest beneficiary of the Reed injury.
• The Browns appear intent on shortening games by long, sustained drives on offense and an aggressive defense.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

HOW GREEN BAY WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Packers have faced the third-most dropbacks through two weeks via continual positive game scripts, allowing just 0.31 fantasy points per dropback from an elevated 81.1% zone-coverage rate. They are effectively daring teams to march the field against them while playing a combined 43.1% from Cover-2 and Cover-6, mixing in an elevated rate of Cover-3 to boot (32.6%). The key here is that they have been able to generate a solid 26.3% pressure rate (fifth) on the sixth-lowest blitz rate, representing the fifth-highest pressure-to-blitz delta in the league behind only the Seahawks (in first by a mile – this defense is for real), Bears, Rams, and Cowboys (surprising). The beauty here is in that marriage, as this defense is unlikely to experience such elite early-season returns if those two pieces were not working together. 

Their offense has been able to remain balanced because of their successes on defense, with an 18^th-ranked pass rate over expectation (PROE) through two weeks. That, however, should not be mistaken for a conservative approach. Jordan Love leads the league in average intended air yards (12.9; Russell Wilson at 10.6 and Lamar Jackson at 10.5 are the next-closest passers) and has an elevated 17.0% deep-throw rate (third, behind only Jackson and Baker Mayfield). Much of that success comes from heavy play-action rates behind a borderline elite offensise line and run game (sixth-highest grade, behind teams we expect to be up there – Ravens, Eagles, Falcons, Cardinals, and Colts).

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Workhorse back Josh Jacobs jumped right back into his workhorse ways, accounting for snap rates of 88% and 78% and opportunity counts of 20 and 23 against the Lions and Commanders, respectively. For those keeping track at home, those two teams represented the winner of the division and a team that played in the Conference Championship last season. Change-of-pace option Chris Brooks played 19% of the team’s offensive snaps in each game, with most of those looks coming in clear passing situations as the preferred third-down option, while Emanuel Wilson played just seven combined offensive snaps through two games. The pure rushing matchup is a poor one on paper against a Browns defense allowing the fewest yards per carry through two games. We can write off their successes in a game against an overmatched Bengals front, but they then came out and held King Henry to just 23 yards on 11 carries, with the Ravens all but adandoning their run game in the second half in an eventual blowout win. Jacobs is a solid bet to surpass 20 opportunities in this spot, but we have to be questioning expected efficiency. Even so, he provides a profile where multiple touchdowns is well within reason.

As expected, Romeo Doubs leads a crowded wide receiver room in snap rate due to the well-rounded nature of his skill set, but that rate is actually down compared to last season after the veteran saw snap rates of 71% and 74% in their first two games. Four other wide receivers held snap rates between 23% and 48% in their first game, with enigmatic rookie Matthew Golden’s snaps ticking up in Week 2 following the departure of Reed. Reed will miss significant time after undergoing surgery on his collarbone and foot early this week, but the way this team runs is such that we shouldn’t expect one pass catcher to step into a massive bump in snap rate and route-participation rate in his absence. Instead, it appears the biggest beneficiary is Kraft, who leads all pass catchers in snap rate (91.5%) and route participation (81.8%). All of that comes with an elite (for anyone) 9.7-yard aDOT through two games. As in, this dude is not just seeing “standard tight end utilization,” he is getting free downfield and making the most with the ball in his hands (second-ranked 73 yards after the catch this season). Expect the offense to continue with a “spread the love” undertone, with Kraft the clearest bet for upside.

HOW CLEVELAND WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Browns took a similar stance to their game-planning against the Ravens as we saw a week prior in their game against the Bengals – they wanted to shorten the game via sustained drives on offense while their defense forced teams to march the field, during which they look to generate disruption with an elite front. And that plan has mostly worked to start the season. They have successfully shortened both of their games through two weeks, trailing 14-10 against the Bengals (and, if not for a missed field goal, would have won that game) and trailing 10-3 to the Ravens at the break (if not for a blocked punt, that could have been 3-3). Things have not gone their way in the second half of either game as a missed field goal send them to 0-1, and the the Ravens just ran them off the field to send them to 0-2 in the second half of their two games. I would expect a similar approach against another far superior opponent from top to bottom in the Packers.

The Browns got Judkins in Week 2 for the first time this season after his off-the-field issues this offseason. He provided a solid spark to an offense that had struggled on the ground against the Bengals, taking 10 carries for 61 yards on just 20 offensive snaps. I would expect his snap rate to tick up in the coming games as he familiarizes himself with the offense (remember, he missed the entirety of the offseason and preseason). Jerome Ford led the team in snap rate again at 48% but handled only six carries, seeing six targets to the three of Dylan Sampson and three of Judkins. Add it all up and Judkins saw 13 opportunities on 20 offensive snaps, which is a ludicrous touch rate and also highlights what he means to this team now that they have him on the field. I see this backfield remaining a messy three-headed timeshare for the time being, with Judkins the likeliest to eventually assert dominance over the lead role. The matchup on the ground is not the same matchup we’ve attack in previous years against the Packers, as they have allowed just 1.71 yards before contact per attempt and the second fewest (2.4) yards per carry in 2025.

This offense is highly likely to operate via heavy rates of 12-personnel this season, and why wouldn’t they? Their top four pass catchers are clearly Cedric Tillman (yea, he’s first, damnit), David Njoku, Harold Fannin, and Jerry Jeudy (yea, he’s last, damnit – argue with a wall). I also found it interesting that rookie undrafted free agent Isaiah Bond ranks third in snaps at the wide receiver position, ahead of preseason darling Jamari Thrash. Bond is a talented play maker with a laundry list of off-the-field issues (shocking for the Browns, I know). But, neither Bond nor Thrash are viable fantasy options while playing situational roles in the offense. The backfield has a whopping 21 targets on 93 team pass attempts (rookie Dillon Gabriel came into the loss to the Ravens last in the fourth quarter and slung the rock three times), good for a 22.6% target share for the Browns. Those targets have been spread to three players in the backfield, but it serves to highlight the structure of the offense at present. The tight ends have combined to account for 25 targets (26.9% target share), leaving a modest 49.5% of the targets to the wide receivers. The breakout then becomes red-zone involvement, an area of the field where Flacco clearly prefers Tillman. Tillman has two red-zone touchdowns on two red-zone targets (Jeudy has zero red-zone targets through two games, which has been a common theme throughout his career). 

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

The Browns have been successful in shortening games through two weeks, the first coming against the Bengals and the second coming against the Ravens. The Ravens eventually broke through for the slaughter while the Bengals were fortunate to escape with a win. I expect more of the same here, with the game likeliest to be within reason throughout the first half. Like the Ravens, I expect the Packers to eventually assert their dominance in all phases, but the early chess match on the field should be a sight to behold. The Packers could also struggle with consistency on the ground against a stout Cleveland front, which influences the effectiveness of their play-action game plan. Overall play volume could then become an issue after the Browns ran a play every 30.3 seconds in their game against the Bengals, with the Packers averaging 31.1 second per play on the season. Quick maths here – that averages out to 117.2 expected offensive plays overall, or 58.6 per team. The Packers average 58 plays per game through two weeks. In other words, volume is unlikely here due to expected game environment, matchup, and previous tendencies, leaving touchdowns and efficiency as the best bet for fantasy viability from all players in this game.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY HILOW >>

• The Colts have scored points on all but two offensive drives this season, both of which were turnovers on downs. They have zero turnovers and zero punts through two games.
• The injury report for this game is lengthy.
• Colts WR Josh Downs missed practice Wednesday with an ankle injury and TE Tyler Warren missed with a toe injury.
• Titans OT JC Latham (hip), CB L’Jarius Sneed (back), and OG Kevin Zietler (bicep) all missed practice Wednesday. NT T’Vondre Sweat (ankle) was limited.
• It isn’t the likeliest scenario, but this game carries clear paths to upside. It is likely up to the Titans to drive the game environment, but it is well within the range of outcomes here.
• Jonathan Taylor has been a true workhorse this season and he could see his pass-game involvement tick up if Warren misses. He has been in a route at a solid 62.0% frequency this season.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

HOW indianapolis WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Daniel Jones-led Colts have put points on the board on all but two offensive possessions through two games, both of which were failed fourth-down conversions against the Broncos. They have yet to punt and have yet to commit a turnover. This team reminds me a lot of the 2024 Saints to start the season with how efficient they have been. Teams will eventually adjust and force the Colts to alter some things, but the structure of the offense thus far has been impressive. That shouldn’t come as a total shock considering Shane Steichen remains one of the top offensive minds in the league, but I’m not sure anyone expected them to be this good.

The matchup is solid for the Colts all around, but especially so on the ground and through the wide receivers. The Titans are dealing with a slew of injuries including to veteran nose tackle Sweat. Sweat missed the team’s Week 2 loss with an ankle injury but was able to get in a limited session Wednesday. The Colts have blocked to a fifth-ranked 2.59 yards before contact per attempt while the Titans have allowed a bloated 2.07 yards before contact per attempt, making this a great spot on paper for Taylor. Taylor leads the league in carries (43), ranks second in red-zone opportunities (12, with one goal line), ranks first in evaded tackles (22), and is coming off a game in which he played a ridiculous 93% of the offensive snaps. The ways of the workhorse back are quickly disappearing in today’s game, making Taylor somewhat of a dying breed. Jones has 13 carries through two games and has scored three times from one yard out. That touchdown rate is equal parts unsustainable as it is impressive, adding to his weekly range of outcomes.

The Colts could get a solid boost through the air should veteran lockdown corner Sneed miss. Sneed missed practice Wednesday with a back injury and appears to be legitimately questionable, as things currently stand. That’s good news for Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, and potentially Adonai Mitchell after Downs missed practice Wednesday with an ankle injury. We saw Mitchell step into whatever role was missing in the offense multiple times in 2024, meaning we should expect Pittman and Pierce to remain in their normal roles while Mitchell steps into the slot role for the Colts, should Downs miss. Warren’s potential absence means much more to the offense considering his heavy involvement through his first two games. Warren has held a solid 24.5% first-read target rate, 0.29 targets per route run (TPRR), and 2.82 yards per route run (YPRR) as a primary cog of the offense, something that would be more difficult to make up for without significant alterations to the structure of the offense. Taylor has been in a route at a solid 62.0% frequency, making him my bet to make up for some of the short-area work that Warren has been seeing should the rookie miss. 

HOW tennessee WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Titans have been relatively reserved on the offensive side of the ball through two games, with heavy rush rates on early downs and a passing game built off of play action. The problem is their run game has been largely ineffective, which continues to place them in long down-and-distance situations where play action is less effective. I would love to see this offense become more balanced on early downs where their play action can be more effective. Time will tell if Brian Callahan eventually opens things up in that way, but it might take some time. The Titans have an early Week 5 bye, so maybe it happens in Week 6. As things currently stand, Callahan is not doing his rookie quarterback any favors. It appears to me that Callahan is trying to ease him into his professional career when, again, to me, Cam Ward is the most pro-ready quarterback to come out of college in the previous five seasons. I don’t know what is going on behind the scenes or what Callahan has seen from his signal-caller during camp, the preseason, and practice thus far, but that is just my read on the situation based on what I have seen on film, from the media, and from my study on Ward this offseason. That is also something that could change in an instant, keeping the tantalizing upside within reach for this team. For those that were around with us this offseason, I was extremely high on this offense, high on Ward, and high on rookie wide receiver Elic Ayomanor. It’s coming, y’all, seems to just be a matter of time and changing offensive tendencies.

Tony Pollard has operated as a true workhorse back in the absence of Tyjae Spears, as expected. That’s about where the positives end for Pollard. The Titans have been overly predictable in their play-calling tendencies and their offensive line has not performed well, blocking to just 1.37 yards before contact per attempt. Pollard has zero explosive runs in two games, has not seen a carry inside the five (Julius Chestnut has one), has forced only three missed tackles on 38 carries (0.08 MTF/ATT), and has accounted for just 10.8 XFP/G. Pollard will likely go the way the offense goes, which is a tough sell in its current state. Chestnut, although he has the only carry for the Titans inside the five this season, has played just 13 total offensive snaps and is not viable in fantasy. The matchup is also poor on paper after the Colts held the Dolphins and Broncos to just 1.71 yards before contact per attempt, good for seventh in the league through two weeks. The Colts have struggled to bring runners down, yielding 5.4 yards per carry, but the poor situational tendencies of the Tennessee offense does them no favors here. Furthering the case for downside is the presence of both Latham (hip) and Zietler (bicep) on the team’s first injury report of the week, with both missing practice Wednesday.

Callahan made good on his promise to get rookie slot man Chimere Dike more work in Week 2, which came at the direct expense of veteran Tyler Lockett. Calvin Ridley remain the clear alpha through the air, flanked by standout rookie Ayomanor on the perimeter. Van Jefferson got beat out by the rookie this preseason and has played only 24 total offensive snaps through two games. Chigoziem Okonkwo is the primary pass-catching tight end, ceding some blocking work to Gunnar Helm. Ridley, Ayomanor, and Okonkwo are the only near every-down pass catchers, with Lockett, Dike, Jefferson, and Helm mixing in for situational roles. The Colts appear set to get back Charvarius Ward after he missed Week 2 with a concussion, which should send Kenny Moore back to nickel and provide a solid boost to the Indianapolis defense. It’s not the best matchup through the air against Lou Anarumo’s game-plan-specific defense, but volume is likeliest to settle on Ridley, Ayomanor, and Okonkwo.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

The current state of each team tells the story of the Colts asserting dominance over the game environment early on, allowing them to remain run-balanced while stringing together drives and dominating the time-of-possession battle. The clearest path for that to change would be injected by the Titans and their reserved play-calling tendencies exhibited through two games, something that could send the game into the upper echelon of scoring on the week. We should expect the Colts to find offensive success here regardless, leaving it up to the Titans to truly push the game environment. Should we see Callahan remove the training wheels on his young quarterback and start leaning into play action on early downs more, this one could turn into something truly special. That isn’t the likeliest scenario, but there are clear paths to upside from this game.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY HILOW >>

• Joe Burrow is reportedly set to miss the next 3-4 months with torn ligaments in his toe.
• J.J. McCarthy is reportedly set to miss the next 2-4 weeks with a high-ankle sprain.
• That leaves this game in the hands of Carson Wentz (Vikings) and Jake Browning (Bengals).
• The Bengals have a bottom-tier offensive line and backup quarterback, not a great spot to be in with a Brian Flores defense on the other side.
• RB Aaron Jones will also miss this contest, leaving Jordan Mason to handle the bulk of the expected workload out of the backfield.
• OT Christian Darrisaw downgraded from full practice Wednesday to DNP Thursday after missing the first two games. Something to keep an eye on Friday.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

HOW CINCINNATI WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Bengals head to Minnesota with Browning set to start under center following the injury to Burrow. Browning has been the checkdown king when asked to start for the Bengals in previous years, and I expect more of the same moving forward. Browning started seven games for the Bengals during the back half of the 2023 season, during which time he carried a modest 6.4 average intended air yards and 7.9% deep throw rate, a 22.2% pressure-to-sack ratio, and an elevated 70.4% completion rate. While a player can surely grow in two years in the league, I largely expect those tendencies to remain consistent against the Vikings due to their defensive tendencies. I can’t think of a worse defensive scheme to see the first start in over a full season against than a Flores unit. The difference from 2023 to now is the players in the offense that are likeliest to see volume and production with Browning under center. Ja’Marr Chase has seen his usage and route tree change since the last time Browning started, with much more in-breaking routes and short-area targets. Those looks have largely come at the expense of running back Chase Brown this season. Finally, Browning had the lowest time to throw after taking over the offense in Week 2.

Brown ranks first in opportunity share, fifth in carries, and eighth in red-zone opportunities (eight, one goal line) but 53^rd in fantasy points per opportunity. He also has zero explosive runs, and a 59.5% stuff rate. The role is robust and legit, and he hasn’t looked bad in the advanced metrics or on tape (0.19 missed tackles forced per attempt, 18.5 XFP/G), but the production has not fully materialized just yet. The matchup is poor on paper behind an offensive line that has created just 1.80 yards before contact per attempt against a defense holding opponents to 1.76 yards before contact per attempt. The Bengals have played zero snaps from 21-personnel this season, with Samaje Perine the preferred change-of-pace option through two games. Rookie Tahj Brooks has yet to see an offensive snap.

As mentioned above, Chase should remain the focal point of the offense through the air in an expanded route tree, but I would expect the bulk of his receptions to come within the first 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. We know what Chase can do with the ball in his hands, so that isn’t a death sentence for Week 3 against this Vikings defense. What is more damning is the state of a Zac Taylor offense that does little to get its play makers the ball in space, instead focusing on creating one-on-one situations. Again, Chase (and Tee Higgins, and the tight-end cadre) is more than capable of winning in that structure, but it does little to optimize his skill set. Drew Sample led the tight-end unit in snaps in a close Week 1 game but ceded additional work to Mike Gesicki in a back-and-forth Week 2 win. Noah Fant also saw his snap rate cut in half with the increased usage from Gesicki. With the zero 21-personnel utilization and 12-personnel usage highly dependent on game flow, Andre Iosivas should see his snap rate and route participation rate ebb and flow throughout the season (65% snap rate in Week 1 and 84% snap rate in Week 2). 

HOW minnesota WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Minnesota offense has not looked great in McCarthy’s first two professional starts, and while I expect him to eventually grow into a viable starter in this league, it would be silly to not think this offense could look much better in his absence. At the same time, Kevin O’Connell is a smart offensive mind and has to be aware of the defense the Bengals have played through two weeks, which should lend itself to an offensive game plan aimed at controlling the clock, time of possession, and field-position battles. That should result in increased usage for the backfield, which, for Week 3, will likely be a Mason workhorse situation with Jones out, and a pass game focused at moving the chains. Flores’ defense is built to generate disruption through defenders in the backfield, and the Vikings would prefer to force the Bengals to become one-dimensional. I wouldn’t expect the actual structure of the offense to change considering Wentz is an established veteran with a solid understanding of the game; rather, I would expect their approach to managing the game to be different.

O’Connell mentioned earlier this week that he views Mason as capable of handling a workhorse role, and I believe him. I expect Mason to be one of the primary cogs of the offense, with a chance of extreme volume if the game plays out the likeliest way. Mason has shown that he can handle workhorse usage from his time with the 49ers, and this franchise sought him out this offseason. Wentz has a low career checkdown rate but spiked to 8.3% in the 2022 season while with the Commanders, and O’Connell’s offense typically involves the backfield through the air, adding to his upside against the Bengals. Ty Chandler is on injured reserve, leaving the Vikings with only Zavier Scott on the active roster behind Mason, and I would expect them to elevate Xazavian Valladay and/or Cam Akers from the practice squad. None of the three is overly likely to eat into a potential workhorse role for Mason. The matchup on the ground is middling against a Bengals defense that has become more “prevent” than anything this year, yielding 1.97 yards before contact per attempt while holding the Browns and Jaguars to 3.7 yards per carry to start the season.

Something does not look right with T.J. Hockenson, I’m just going to come out and say it. There was a play designed to him over the middle of the field last week where he tried a triple deke on a linebacker. I have never seen him get stuck in the mud like that. He stayed in one spot on the field for four steps and the linebacker just stood there on his toes and broke in front of Hockenson to defend the pass. That might help to explain his low 17.1% target rate, 18.2% first-read target rate, and 14.3% drop rate through two games. I really don’t know what is going on with him. Justin Jefferson handily leads the team in all underlying receiving metrics, as should be expected with Jalen Nailor, Adam Thielen, and a broken Hockenson on the field with him in the absence of Jordan Addison. Nailor has been the only other pass catcher outside of Jefferson to operate in a near every-down role, but he holds a low 0.12 targets per route run (TPRR) and 1.18 yards per route run (YPRR). He’s just not going to command targets at a high rate. It certainly appears to be Jefferson or bust for the Vikings through the air in their current state.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

The structured madness of the Minnesota defense combines with the presence of two backup quarterbacks to yield a game environment the Vikings should control, but it isn’t likely to be pretty. I would expect the Vikings to anchor their attack with the ground game through Mason with an aim at controlling the clock and tempo. We have a good idea of what to expect from the Bengals, which is likely to be extremely reactive in nature but focused on the short areas of the field. That should expose Browning to increased pressure, which the Bengals are likely to counter with a ball-out-quick mentality. How the game likely plays out from there depends largely on what Taylor does to help his outmatched quarterback.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By papy >>

• The Steelers defense is beat up with DE Derrick Harmon, OLB Alex Highsmith, S DeShon Elliott, and CB Joey Porter all on the injury report to start the week
• The Patriots’ only DNP was DE Keion White with an illness
• The Steelers have been more balanced than in past versions of Arthur Smith-led offenses
• The Steelers backfield has been a timeshare between Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell
• The Steelers are playing three TEs between 40-60% of the snaps
• DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin are full-time players, but neither has seen more than seven targets in either game
• Drake Maye is underpriced for his projected fantasy points, but he’s very challenging to stack
• The Pats WR snaps are spread out, with Kayshon Boutte being the closest thing to a full-time player
• The Pats backfield is a three-way timeshare

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The 1-1 Steelers come into Week 3 off a disheartening home loss against the Seahawks. Pittsburgh barely outlasted a Jets team that got killed by the Bills in Week 2 and didn’t look especially good in any phase of the game against Seattle. There is a chance the Steelers aren’t very good. The Steelers are 16th in situational neutral pass rate, 17th in pass rate over expectations, and 11th in pass rate. Those seem like moderate numbers, but for an Arthur Smith offense, they’ve been chucking it all over the yard. The more balanced approach is either small sample size noise or a compromise with Aaron Rodgers. If it’s the latter, the Steelers might throw more than we’ve come to expect with Arthur Smith at the helm. The problem with a more balanced offense is that the Steelers don’t have the personnel to pass. They’re trying to play three TEs, all over 40% of the snaps, which makes being anything but a running team difficult. Pittsburgh has been playing up-tempo (9th in seconds per play), but most of that comes from their game against the Jets. They were 25th in tempo relative to game expectations in Week 2, which might be a sign that Rodgers is going to use the whole play clock like we’ve seen most of his career.

The Steelers O-line has been shaky (21st ranked by PFF). They have two first-round picks at tackle who both allowed multiple pressures against the Seahawks. As a unit, they graded out 22nd overall in pass blocking efficiency, which isn’t going to be good enough to protect an immobile Rodgers. Jaylen Warren is clearly Pittsburgh’s best RB, but Arthur Smith would rather eat a sandwich without mayo than give one guy over 60% of the snaps. Kenneth Gainwell curiously out-snapped Warren in Week 1, with their playing time reversing in Week 2. Rookie Kaleb Johnson, who was expected to be used on early downs, has barely played a snap and didn’t do himself any favors blundering away the game by not fielding a kickoff against the Seahawks. The Patriots have been stout against the run (5th in DVOA) and roasted through the air (31st in DVOA), presenting as an early-season pass funnel. The Steelers threw Week 1 before looking “Arthur Smithy” in Week 2. The smart way to attack the Patriots is through the air, but the Steelers will likely try to run before throwing late to keep pace.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

The 1-1 Patriots come into Week 3 off a thrilling 33-27 win against the Dolphins. The Pats are 5th in pass rate over expectations, and 8th in pass rate, but really, it’s been a tale of two games. The Patriots threw 46 times against the Raiders in Week 1 and 23 times against the Dolphins in Week 2. They are 25th in seconds per play, but they ranked 5th in neutral pace over expectations in Week 1, before slowing way down in Week 2. Mike Vrabal might’ve told McDaniels to calm things down, and after winning with a slower pace, it’ll likely be here to stay. Maye has been as advertised, but WR production has been spread out, with no pass catcher seeing more than 12 targets over the first two weeks. TreVeyon Henderson hasn’t been on the field for more than a third of the snaps in either game. He also had a rough Week 2, blowing multiple pass protections, which is something he was excellent at in college. Rhamondre Stevenson’s long reception came on a play that was initially designed for Henderson, but he wasn’t on the field because of his pass-blocking issues. That was likely a one-game blip, but if Henderson does struggle in pass protection, it’ll be hard for him to get consistent playing time.

The Patriots O-line has been below average (19th ranked by PFF), but their overall ranking doesn’t tell the whole story. After a rough Week 1, they moved up seven spots in the O-line rankings after an excellent Week 2. Rookie RG Jared Wilson had the second-best PFF rank among all guards, and the entire unit allowed only two pressures. Center Garret Bradbury is off to the best start of his career and leads all centers in pass protection grade. The Patriots revamped their O-line in the offseason, and after a slow start, they might come together to be a respectable unit. The Steelers are supposed to be a defensive team, but they’ve been anything but to start the season. They’ve been trampled on the ground (28th in DVOA) and smacked through the air (27th in DVOA). The Steelers haven’t been able to stop anything, and T.J. Watt looks washed after signing a massive, guaranteed contract. The Steelers have also been dealing with injuries at every level. Having lost first-round pick DE Derrick Harmon, OLB Alex Highsmith, S DeShon Elliott, and CB Joey Porter. The Steelers have been nothing but least resistance. After winning last week with a balanced approach, it’s reasonable to expect the Patriots to come out running and to stay conservative unless the Steelers take a lead.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a close spread (1.5) with a moderate (44.5) total, which feels more like a bet against these defenses than a bet on the offenses. These two teams ranked 32nd and 31st in explosive plays allowed. That would lead you to believe this game will have a lot of long touchdowns, but both offenses are void of playmakers capable of creating explosive plays. Still, the respectable total indicates that these defenses are inferior to the offenses. With the Steelers defense being bad at everything, and the Patriots defense being a sieve against the pass, expect both teams to find success through the air. This game may end up producing a lot of points, despite the relative lack of star power on either offense. The most likely game flow is a back-and-forth affair with both sides finding success through the air and the winner being determined late into the 4th quarter.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• TE Dallas Goedert returned to a limited practice on Wednesday after missing the team’s Week 2 win over the Chiefs.
• RB Will Shipley remained out of action on Wednesday and appears headed for a second consecutive absence in Week 3.
• The Eagles struggled through the air against two defenses that rank in the top six in two-high rates, while the Rams rank dead last at just 29.3%.
• If there were a matchup to get A.J. Brown going, this would be it.
• Both of these offenses are extremely concentrated. Both of these teams are typically good at winning by out-maneuvering their opponents. But both teams are clearly capable of erupting in the right environment. This game has my attention this week in a spot that the field is highly likely to overlook.
• Puka Nacua and Davante Adams combine to account for 0.80 TPRR (targets per route run), 75.9% of the team’s air yards, and 64.5% of the targets in the Rams’ offense.
• The Rams have missed a grand total of ZERO tackles through two games, which highlights the level of coaching this team has received this year.

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How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams typically run a slow-paced offense designed to sustain drives and wear down their opponents, and they now have a defense that allows them to execute that game plan. Defensive coordinator Chris Shula has one of the league’s youngest defenses playing at an extremely high level. That said, they completely outmatched their opponents in the first two weeks, manhandling both the Texans and Titans. Their opponent in Week 3 presents a very different challenge. The Rams currently rank dead last in two-high utilization and 29^th in blitz rate, two things I expect to continue against the Eagles. We could see their Cover-1 rates dip so they have more eyes in the backfield to contain Jalen Hurts, but I expect their base to continue being Cover-3. Their offense remains ridiculously concentrated. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams combine to account for 0.80 TPRR, 75.9% of the team’s air yards, and 64.5% of the targets in the Rams offense. The thesis I’m getting at here is that this team could provide some legitimate blowup games if an opponent forces them out of their conservative offensive shell. And while the Eagles haven’t necessarily shown that this season, we know what they are capable of.

All the offseason talks of Blake Corum being more involved in this offense appear to be completely off base, with Kyren Williams ranked fifth in opportunity share, seventh in snap rate, sixth in carries, and eighth in red zone opportunities (two goal line carries). He remains near the top of the “workhorse back scale.” The pure rushing matchup is a poor one against an Eagles defense allowing just 1.63 yards before contact per attempt, even though they have allowed 5.0 yards per carry through two games. Consider it a neutral-to-negative matchup on the ground, with Williams a good bet to approach or exceed 20 carries in the right game environment.

Nacua and Adams are such a massive portion of this pass offense, and almost everything within the structure is designed to generate space and/or create mismatches for their top two options through the air. Sean McVay continues to utilize heavy rates of pre-snap motion and unique play designs, and he now has two weapons playing at an elite level. It’s a far different setup than either of the previous two seasons, with a declining Cooper Kupp, and not much in the way of elite talent behind Nacua. That simply places so much pressure on an opposing defense, and Matthew Stafford is still capable of carving up a defense in his advanced age. My preseason thesis surrounding Jordan Whittington seems to be coming to fruition as he’s played just 11 offensive snaps less than Nacua, while Tutu Atwell, preseason standout Konata Mumpfield, and Xavier Smith operate in rotational roles based on specific packages. The team started the season utilizing a three tight end rotation before the injury to Colby Parkinson, which devolved into a two tight end system (as opposed to getting rookie Terrance Ferguson more involved, who is a complete afterthought at present). Both Nacua and Adams bring sky-high weekly ceilings in the current structure of this offense.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Philadelphia offense lacks the same creativity and misdirection we’ve grown accustomed to in recent history, instead ditching elevated motion rates, dynamic route layering, and varied situational tendencies almost altogether. It’s only two games, so I don’t want to immediately proclaim new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo a lost cause, but things certainly seem to be trending in that direction. They’ve maintained elevated rush rates (28th-ranked PROE, second-ranked 36.0 rush attempts per game) but are lacking the same dynamism behind it, which makes their 2-0 start a bit misleading. They narrowly beat the Cowboys in the opening weekend before narrowly beating the Chiefs in Week 2, scoring a combined 44 points (22 per game) after putting up 29.0 points per game in 2024. The elite talent they have on their offense makes it so complete offensive duds are unlikely, but this team could be performing so much better if their offensive tendencies were altered a bit. On the other side of the ball, they have held two solid opponents to an average of 18.5 points per game, which has allowed them to keep with the muted tendencies throughout. Their opponent in Week 3 is likely equipped to push the Eagles better than any team they have faced up to this point, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Rams came away with a victory here.

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The Philadelphia ground game is Saquon Barkley and then everyone else. Quarterback Jalen Hurts leads the league in designed quarterback runs with 23, which also includes all the tush pushes the Eagles typically run. A.J. Dillon has been the primary change-of-pace option behind Barkley with Will Shipley on the shelf, but has just six total touches in two games, three carries each. Philadelphia’s offensive line remains elite, blocking to the second-most yards before contact per attempt (3.08), but Barkley has struggled to just 3.7 yards per carry with a lowly 2.5% explosive run rate against one elite run defense (Chiefs) and one defense that has no business being in the top half of the league against the run (Cowboys). This is also likely a product of the more static nature of the team’s situational tendencies and overall offensive structure under Patullo. The Rams rank in the middle of the pack against the run, and Barkley brings elite touchdown upside in this offense still, making him an interesting option to consider at likely low ownership.

The static nature of the offense has been most evident through the air. Both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith nursed offseason injuries coming into 2025, but it’s difficult to explain the poor production away due to the receivers. It is much more likely to be the structure of the offense. Hurts has more tush pushes this season than he does completed passes beyond five yards of the line of scrimmage, which is a downright ridiculous stat considering the talent of his pass-catchers. Both the Cowboys and the Chiefs rank in the top six in two-high alignments, something that could also help explain the poor performances from the primary pass-catchers (and Hurts). Conversely, the Rams rank dead last in two-high rates to begin the season, instead playing mostly from Cover-3 (44.0%) and Cover-1 (26.7%). This should be the first chance the Eagles have to truly attack downfield this season, which is likeliest to benefit A.J. Brown. The likely return of Dallas Goedert gives the offense another primary pass-catcher that they sorely missed against the Chiefs, but the schematic matchup against the Rams is a poor one.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Eagles have largely looked flat on offense through two games, but each of the teams they’ve played thus far ranks in the top six in two-high utilization while the Rams rank dead last in that metric. The structure of their defense is just far different than what Philadelphia saw with the Cowboys and Chiefs. Splash plays through the air are much more likely for the Eagles here than in their first two games, which is music to A.J. Brown’s (and his fantasy managers’) ears. It also provides a clearer path to upside from the game environment, as the Rams aren’t typically responsible for providing some form of ignition source, but they have players capable of responding should their offensive play-calling tendencies shift due to the game environment. Color me intrigued from a spot the field is highly unlikely to get to based on how the Eagles have looked through two games. To be clear, the likeliest scenario has this game playing to a competitive slugfest, but the paths to upside are likely to carry low ownership, are clearer than they have been for either team this season, and carry immense ceiling due to the concentration of volume on each of these offenses.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY HILOW >>

• Jets will be without QB Justin Fields, who has already been ruled out for Week 3 with a concussion.
• The Jets will start Tyrod Taylor, who most recently started five games for the Giants in 2023. In those five starts, he averaged 6.4 carries for 32 yards on the ground.
• The Buccaneers match up well to limit New York’s preferred offensive structure, which should serve to force them to the air at an earlier, and greater, frequency.
• Emeka Egbuka should see less Sauce Gardner than Mike Evans, setting him up well to continue his hot start to his rookie campaign.

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HOW nEW YORK WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Jets have a -13.4% pass rate over expectation (PROE) in 2025. The next closest team in lowest PROE are the Seahawks at -4.6%. They also have extreme splits in overall pass/rush rates dependent on half, with a first-ranked 58.2% rush rate in the first half and a middling 38.9% rush rate in the second half of their first two games. Taylor is not the mobile quarterback he once was, but he still has some chops on the ground. He most recently started five games for the Giants in 2023, averaging 6.4 carries and 32 yards per game. Those come together to lead me to believe the structure of the offense will remain largely unchanged in the absence of Fields, who has already been ruled out for Week 3 with a concussion sustained in the fourth quarter of the team’s Week 2 loss to the Bills. The problem with that is that the matchup against the Buccaneers is extremely difficult on the ground (more on this below) and Taylor does not bring the same upside that Fields does with his legs, considering this is his age-36 season. That means we should expect New York’s efficiency to dip. Even so, I expect the Jets to begin the game with a similar structure to what we have seen through two weeks. This overall game plan would also work better with a defense playing at the same high level as in previous seasons, but that hasn’t been the case. The early tape on this team paints the picture of a middling unit, one that is likely to get better as the season progresses after significant offseason personnel and coaching changes.

Fields was injured on a sack at the start of the fourth quarter against the Bills, with the Jets already down 30-3. The team ran 17 offensive plays over two drives with Taylor under center following Fields’ departure, three of which were Taylor scrambles (he would have had a fourth but it went down as a sack after only making it to the line of scrimmage). All of that to say, Taylor has always carried an elevated scramble rate and we should expect more of the same against a Buccaneers team that we know is going to be throwing unique blitz packages at the veteran. The pure rushing matchup on the ground is one of the worst on the slate, yielding a net 1.71 adjusted line yards before contact per attempt, with the Buccaneers ranked 10^th in that metric and the Jets ranked 27^th to start the season. Lead back Breece Hall has seen a combined 36 opportunities through two games, starting the season with 23 in a close game against the Steelers before dropping to 13 in their blowout loss to the Bills. A normal workload likely resides somewhere in the middle considering his “lead back” role, one that is far from a workhorse load. Braelon Allen is on hand for change-of-pace duties, while Isaiah Davis appears locked into an obvious passing down role.

Josh Reynolds did not practice Wednesday after missing the Week 2 game against the Bills, indicating there’s a high likelihood he misses against the Buccaneers. It was veteran journeyman Tyler Johnson (and former Buc) that stepped into his role in the offense last week, something we should expect until Reynolds is ready to return from a hamstring injury. The Jets would prefer to play from heavier packages through increased snaps from tight end Jeremy Ruckert, something they were forced to stray from against the Bills. I expect them to start from a heavy base and adjust as the game moves along. Fields appeared to continue his tendency of locking onto his top option through the air to start the season, whereas the experience of Taylor is slightly less likely to simply feed Garrett Wilson heavy volume. That makes Wilson a shakier fantasy bet than it would have been with Fields under center, and leaves me with little interest in any pass-catcher in this offense despite a matchup and game environment that should eventually tilt additional volume to the pass game. Finally, rookie tight end Mason Taylor is clearly the top option at the position, but his snap rate is held in check by his relative shortcomings in blocking.

HOW TAMPA BAY WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The structure of the Buccaneers remains largely unchanged as compared to last season. Their defense is going to look to generate disruption via increased, and unique, blitzes while their offense utilizes a pass-balanced approach, a dynamic run-blocking system, and layered routes to create space for their top playmakers. They should have no issues moving the ball effectively against a Jets defense still looking to find its identity under new head coach Aaron Glenn and defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. One thing to keep an eye on as the season progresses is the defense’s ability to generate pressure, because they have struggled in that area through two games (28.6% blitz rate and modest 11.7% pressure rate). I don’t see that becoming an issue against a Jets offensive line allowing pressure at a 29% rate, but it is something to keep in our back pockets for future games.

The Buccaneers’ total play volume and pace are typically going to be dependent on their opponent. They ran just 58 offensive plays in their Week 1 win over a Falcons team that was able to sustain drives against them, and then ran 80 offensive plays in a game against the Texans where both defenses drove the game environment. Bucky Irving is the clear lead back in a “tick below workhorse but bigger than lead back” role. He played 76% and 71% of the offensive snaps and handled 18 and 23 opportunities against the Falcons and Texans, respectively. Rachaad White remains the change-of-pace back and scored on a goal-line carry in Week 2, leaving Irving without a carry inside the five this season (and with a moderate 15.8 expected fantasy points per game). We haven’t yet seen ceiling from Irving, but it is likely to surface at some point this season. For all the relative struggles of the New York defense through two games, their run defense remains stout. They have ceded just 1.48 yards before contact per attempt (second) and 4.4 yards per carry through two games.

Egbuka has led the team in snaps and route participation in consecutive games to begin his professional career. We should expect that to continue considering the absences of Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan and the age of Evans. Sterling Shepard has filled in as the WR3 with a snap rate dependent on personnel groupings, while tight end Cade Otton continues to play almost every offensive snap but is effectively an afterthought in the aerial attack. That leaves expected target volume highly concentrated on Egbuka, Evans, and the backfield. Egbuka has hit the ground running, scoring three touchdowns through two games, and appears to be one of the most pro-ready receivers from this year’s class. I’m not sure if Evans will draw a Gardner shadow, but Evans is almost certainly going to see more Gardner than Egbuka, with Egbuka likely seeing more Brandon Stephens and Michael Carter coverage. 

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

The Buccaneers have built their defense in a way that matches up extremely well against the way we expect the Jets to want to attack here, which yields a situation where we should expect Tampa to eventually assert control of the game environment. That should eventually lead the Jets out of structure and reliant on increased dropbacks from Taylor, which is exactly where Todd Bowles’ defense wants him. He’ll likely add a bit of production on the ground through an elevated scramble rate, but not enough to give him a substantial ceiling. Altering the likeliest game flow would require the Jets to either find early offensive success, which would allow them to stick to their run-based attack longer, or for the Jets to connect through the air once they are forced to alter their approach. Neither of those tributaries are overly likely here.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• QB Jayden Daniels has missed both practices to start the week due to a knee injury sustained in the team’s Week 2 loss to the Packers. Marcus Mariota has taken all the snaps under center in both practices thus far.
• RB Austin Ekeler was lost for the season in the same game with a torn Achilles, a potential career-ender at this stage of his career.
• WR Noah Brown missed both practices through Thursday.
• TE Brock Bowers was limited in each session through Thursday after playing through a knee injury in Week 2. He was noticeably hobbled and far less explosive in that contest.
• I don’t expect this game environment to have many paths towards upside, and the places we expect volume to amass carry relatively modest ceilings. That leaves this game as a potential stay away on a 13-game slate.

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How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders are making things difficult on their opponents by playing a league-leading 92.9% zone on the defensive side of the ball. They also lead the league in Cover-3 rate at 51.8% while mixing in Cover-4 (20.0%) and Cover-2 (17.6%). Their defensive line is also playing inspired football, holding the Chargers and Patriots to 3.2 yards per carry. Quarterback Geno Smith has a 9.4 average intended air yards and 15.6% deep throw rate this season, which highlights how this team has consistently been looking to attack down the field. That’s interesting to me because of how poor this offensive line has played through two games. Either way, the Raiders appear intent on playing via a prevent defense behind an above average front four, while mixing in blitzes at an above average rate (25.9% blitz rate and 17.6% pressure rate).

Things haven’t fully come together with their run game. We talked about that this offseason, noting that the offensive line is a below average unit outside of LT Kolton Miller and LG Dylan Parham. Electric rookie Ashton Jeanty has managed just 2.7 yards per carry on 30 attempts, all while forcing an above average 0.23 missed tackled per attempt. He has zero explosive runs through two games but has handled all carries inside the five, leading to 14.1 XFP/G. He is too talented to continue with such poor efficiency, but this offensive line is going to have to block better than their current 1.55 yards before contact per attempt mark (29^th). Zamir White is on hand for strict change of pace duties and brings little to the table for fantasy purposes. The Commanders structure their defense to dare teams to run on them, evidenced by a lofty 2.61 yards allowed before contact per attempt, so the matchup is pure on paper. Finally, Jeanty saw his snap rate plummet from 86% in Week 1 to 56% in Week 2. The difference in those games was the game environment, with the Raiders beating the Patriots in Week 1 and losing to the Chargers in Week 2, meaning Jeanty is less workhorse than we initially thought to begin the season.

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The Raiders have seen their personnel rates change greatly depending on the game environment, playing from 11-personnel less than 60% of the time in Week 1 and over 80% of the time in Week 2. Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker are the primary receivers, while rookie Dont’e Thornton sees his involvement change with personnel structure, while both Bowers and Michael Mayer are involved at meaningful rates at tight end. Both Tucker and Thornton have below average TPRR (targets per route run) rates, a metric largely led by Meyers and Bowers. The Commanders have played a ton of Cover-1 (38.0%) through two weeks, something that could allow one of Tucker or Thornton to hit on a downfield shot at some point, but the lack of consistent volume makes it a tough sell on such a large slate.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

Jayden Daniels has missed both practices to start the week due to a knee injury sustained in the team’s Week 2 loss to the Packers. Marcus Mariota has taken all the snaps under center in both practices thus far. While Daniels technically has one more opportunity to get on the practice field this week, it certainly does not look good, considering the injury was suffered on Thursday night. I currently expect Mariota to start, and the remainder of this write-up will focus on that outcome. Any updates to Daniels status will be passed via the below DFS+ Interpretation section, the End Around, and The Slate podcast. The path of least resistance against the Cover-3-heavy Raiders is to the intermediate areas of the field in the gaps of the formation, which is where I expect the Commanders to focus their attack.

I expect the backfield to be a three-headed timeshare with rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt likely to lead the team in snap rate and carries. I honestly have no clue who is going to take over clear passing situations because both Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez are below average, to poor, through the air. Considering the state of the backfield in the absence of Ekeler, the matchup against the Raiders, and the potential for the team to be led by a backup quarterback, I think it’s likely we see offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury lean into a quick passing attack to move the football, which keeps the range of outcomes of all three backs skewed towards the downside. Mariota also has an extremely low career checkdown rate.

On the other hand, that expectation directly correlates to a potential boost to the volume and utilization of Deebo Samuel (4.3 aDOT), Zach Ertz (7.1 aDOT), and potentially even Jaylin Lane (7.6 aDOT), while denting the expectation for Terry McLaurin (14.1 aDOT) and Noah Brown (14.9 aDOT), if he is able to suit up (missed practice to start the week). Luke McCaffrey (17.0 aDOT) is the player most likely to step into Brown’s vacated role should Brown miss. I wouldn’t expect the focus here to be attacking aggressively downfield, but rather an offense that hits the soft spots in Cover-3 through their horizontally spread nature. The Raiders have allowed 7.0 yards per pass attempt on a 67.12% completion rate, while allowing 24.5 completions per game. It all lines up to me. Another Deebo, Ertz, and Lane game incoming. And while the volume is likely to be there for those three, touchdown expectancy should obviously be lower should Daniels miss, making ceiling a tougher bet than it otherwise would be in this spot.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

It is highly unlikely we see the Commanders pushing anything in this spot with Mariota under center, and it is highly unlikely the Raiders are able to hit on splash plays through the air to ignite the game environment. That leaves this game with a likeliest scenario where both teams are fighting to sustain drives, lowering the ceiling of all skill position players in the process. Brock Bowers is banged up, Jakobi Meyers carries a modest 8.5 aDOT, and Marcus Mariota is unlikely to be attacking downfield in this spot, on this offense. All signs point to a more reserved game environment with few paths to upside, making this game a potential one to strike out completely on a massive 13-game slate.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY papy324 >>

• CB A.J. Terrell and OLB James Pearce both missed practices early in the week for the Falcons. 
• ILB Patrick Jones and DE Tershawn Wharton both missed practices early in the week for the Panthers.
• The Falcons have been much better on defense than expected, especially against the pass. 
• The Falcons have one of the lowest situational-neutral pass rates in the league and one of the lowest average depth of target.
• Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier have value in an excellent matchup.
• Kyle Pitts has been used more early on than in past seasons.
• Drake London hasn’t seen downfield targets and needs a lot of volume to hit with his current role.
• The Panthers still rank near the bottom of the league against the run.
• The Panthers just lost their starting center and right guard to the injured reserve.
• The Panthers are targeting their WRs at the highest rate in the league and Tetairoa McMillan looks the part of an alpha WR.
• Bryce Young is likely to throw over 40 times if the Falcons take a lead.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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HOW ATLANTA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The 1-1 Falcons come into Week 2 off an impressive win in prime time, on the road, over the Vikings. The Falcons haven’t been the fantasy-friendly shootout team everyone expected coming into the season. They’re 30^st in situational neutral pass rate, 31^st in pass rate over expectation (PROE), and 26^th in pass rate. No matter how you slice the data, the Falcons want to win on the ground. They’ve also done their best to reel in Michael Penix’s gunslinger tendencies. Last year Penix’s average depth of throw was 10.6 yards (second in the league), and this year that number is 6.9 yards (29^th). Elevated run rates paired with shallow passing has led Robinson to have RB2 usage overall, while Allgeier is the RB26 in usage. The Falcons have also played at a plodding pace (30^th in seconds per play), which has caused their games to yield the ninth-fewest combined snaps and third-fewest points. Pitts has been more involved than in previous years and is the TE12 in usage through two weeks. When you combine a slow pace of play, with extreme backfield work, and a little more Pitts, there hasn’t been much left for London or Darnell Mooney. Ray-Ray McCloud has all but disappeared.

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Even though the Falcons aren’t playing the way everyone anticipated, their style makes sense given what we’ve seen from their roster this season. They have an above-average O-line        (13^th-ranked by PFF), which has been boosted by run blocking. They surrendered 11 pressures on only 24 pass plays last week, which was good for the 29^th overall rating in pass-blocking efficiency. However, they still moved up three spots in PFFs O-line rankings because they were the best run-blocking unit. The Panthers were historically bad last year against the run and haven’t been great (25^th in DVOA) at stopping ground attack early this season. There is no reason for the Falcons to deviate from the way they’ve been playing in a matchup that most teams choose to attack on the ground. The final thing that’s changed about Atlanta this season is its defense. The Falcons seem to have found pass rushers in their two first-round rookies. The Falcons have allowed the second-fewest points and yards, which has lessened the need for their offense to be aggressive. Expect another slow-placed approach, with a focus on running the ball and playing defense. 

HOW CAROLINA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The 0-2 Panthers were expected to improve this year, but so far, that hasn’t been the case. Their offense has been putrid, ranking bottom five in yards per play and points per game while committing the most turnovers in the league. They’ve been leaning into the pass, clocking in at 10^th in situational-neutral pass rate, 14^th in PROE, and third in overall pass rate. The Panthers would like to be a balanced offense, but they are always losing, so they’ve ended up throwing at a top-five rate. When they do pass, they’ve been targeting their WRs at the highest rate in the league. McMillan has looked the part of a top-10 pick, Hunter Renfrow has been a PPR scammer, and Xavier Legette looks like he should forget about football and take up a new hobby. Chuba Hubbard has established himself as the clear lead back, and with all the passing, has made a living with receiving work to start the season. He should continue to get the lion’s share of backfield work. The Panthers rank in the bottom 10 in situational-neutral pace but are fifth in seconds per play. Like their passing game splits, this indicates the Panthers want to play slowly and balanced but have been forced to play quickly and pass-happy. 

The Panthers’ O-line is below average (20^th-ranked by PFF) and fell a whopping five spots in the rankings this week. That’s because they were devastated by injury, losing their starting center and starting right guard to injured reserve. Center Austin Corbett was a solid starter, but RG Robert Hunt was a massive loss. Hunt was their best player up front and Chandler Zavala struggled in relief in Week 2, giving up four pressures on just 22 pass plays. It’s difficult for any O-line to overcome losing two starters in the same week, especially when one of them is the unit’s best player. The Falcons have been brutal against the pass (No. 2 in DVOA), and above-average against the run (10^th in DVOA), which doesn’t leave an obvious path of least resistance to attack. The Panthers are going to start out with a balanced attack, but don’t be surprised if they end up with a high pass rate after falling behind early. 

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

This game has a moderate total (43.5), with the Falcons installed as comfortable (-5.5) road favorites. The fact the Falcons are a large road favorite shows you how far apart these teams have moved since the start of the season. This matchup favors how the Falcons want to attack, and with the Panthers happy to start out slowly/balanced, there is a good chance this is the type of game that looks closer than it is going into halftime. The Falcons are likely to pull ahead in the third quarter, riding a steady wave of successful runs and short passes. Once the Falcons take the lead, the Panthers will turn into a pass-happy, fast-paced offense, which will play right into the teeth of the Falcons’ surprisingly top-notch pass defense. Expect the Falcons to end up with a multiple-score lead, even if things stay close through the first couple of quarters. 

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Houston’s offensive line has been a major cause for concern through two weeks, as they have struggled to open running lanes and pass protect.
• The Texans will welcome back veteran wide receiver Christian Kirk this week and hope he will solve some of their passing game issues.
• Some underlying metrics point to this potentially being a terrific matchup for the Jaguars running game. 
• Jacksonville’s backfield appears to be a two-headed monster with Travis Etienne Jr. and rookie Bhayshul Tuten ready to thrive in Liam Coen’s offense.
• Through two weeks, no skill player in the NFL has underperformed relative to their opportunity more than Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr.
• This week will mark a drastic step up in competition for the Jaguars offense after facing the Panthers and Bengals defenses to start the year.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The Texans have won the AFC South in consecutive seasons, but find themselves sitting at 0-2 and heading on the road for Week 3. Houston has a litany of issues, some on both sides of the ball, and some of them cost them dearly in their narrow loss to the Bucs on Monday night. The first issue for Houston is their offensive line, where they have struggled to get any push in the running game and have continued to be a swinging door for opposing pass rushes. In the 2024 season, Stroud had the highest number of pressured dropbacks in the NFL with a 39.0% pressure rate. He was deemed “responsible” for 12.1% of those pressures. These numbers suggest a significant portion of the pressure he faced was due to offensive line issues. Houston spent the offseason trying to address things, but through two weeks, he is being pressured on a whopping 42% of his drop-backs, per Next Gen Stats. Meanwhile, Texans running backs averaged 3.7 yards per carry in Week 1 against the Rams and had 32 rushing yards on 14 carries Monday night prior to the Bucs letting Nick Chubb score from 25 yards out to preserve clock for themselves. Tough scene.

The best news for the Texans is that help is on the way in the form of veteran wide receiver Christian Kirk. Due to their inability to run the ball and struggles protecting Stroud, Houston has been left with few options to start the year. Teams are obviously keying in on star receiver Nico Collins and the other Texans receivers are all below average veterans or relatively raw rookies who have not been able to win one-on-one matchups and get separation. Kirk profiles as exactly the medicine this offense needs, with his ability to run crisp routes, create separation, and give Stroud a dependable target in the middle of the field. 

Kirk’s return, which happens to come against his former team, should help the Texans get ahead of the sticks and have shorter down-and-distance situations. Their aforementioned struggles in rushing and pass protection have led to poor performance on early downs, which results in a lot of third-and-long situations. The Texans have converted only four out of 18 third downs through two weeks (two for nine in both games). In short, a quick passing game is exactly what the Texans need and they should have an elevated rate of early down passing this week. The Jaguars rank 5th in the NFL in zone coverage rate and are around league average in both blitz rate and QB pressure rate. In short, this profiles as a matchup where the veteran savvy of Kirk should allow for more easy completions that on the surface don’t seem like much but in reality relieve pressure on all parts of the Houston offense. The Texans have not had much success running the ball this season, but rank a modest 21st in the NFL in pass rate over expectation due to the structural offensive issues they have been dealing with. This week, we should expect a more aggressive and effective passing game in the short area, which should also allow them to have more success downfield.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars offense has a lot of storylines right now. After trading Tank Bigsby in the aftermath of their season-opening win over Carolina, the team turned loose rookie running back Bhayshul Tuten in Week 2 at the Bengals. Tuten did not disappoint, turning 10 touches into 74 yards and a touchdown. On his touchdown, Tuten made a move that only a handful of backs in the league are capable of. His explosiveness jumped off the screen and he will clearly be a big part of what they do going forward. The success of Tuten did not take away from the fact that Travis Etienne Jr. continues to play at a high level. Etienne averaged over five yards per carry for the second consecutive game while playing two-thirds of the team’s offensive snaps and having a receiving touchdown of his own. Jacksonville head coach Liam Coen’s backfield was extremely productive when he was in Tampa Bay last season and it appears that will be the case again for the 2025 Jaguars.

The backfield’s success is important because the rest of the passing game is having some issues. The team has not been able to get much out of highly touted rookie Travis Hunter, while Brian Thomas Jr. has been among the least productive players in the league with his opportunity through two weeks. Coen also let it slip on Monday that Thomas has been dealing with a previously undisclosed wrist injury. The film from last week showed Thomas failing to make strong efforts for multiple passes, and the potential wrist issue may be an explanation for that. Wide receiver Dyami Brown continues to play a large role and had a nice game, but also dropped what would have been a second touchdown reception on Sunday. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence continues to struggle with accuracy and often misses high and/or wide, which could put his receivers in harm’s way. All things considered, they have to clean things up if they want to be a successful offense. The Jaguars started the season with the Panthers and Bengals – two defenses that most experts expect to be among the league’s worst this season. Things are likely to get tougher from here.

The biggest apparent advantage for the Jaguars in this game will be their running game. Through two weeks, the Jaguars rank first in the NFL in adjusted line yards per carry, while the Texans defense ranks dead last in the same category. This huge advantage at the line of scrimmage and the effectiveness that Jacksonville’s running backs have shown this season scream for the Jaguars to heavily focus their game plan around their backfield. This is a game of cat and mouse, however, and we can expect Houston to anticipate that and put an emphasis on taking those things away. If Houston does take that approach, however, this provides the perfect opportunity for Jacksonville to create some one one-on-one opportunities and get Thomas and/or Hunter going. Coen has explicitly talked about the need to get Thomas on track as soon as possible, so things seem to line up for that to happen here. Ultimately, it will depend on the effort that Thomas puts on the field and whether or not Lawrence can make the throws he needs to make. 

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

While there are some positive indicators on both offenses, there is also a lot of concern around the game script here. The Texans have not played fast, and while the addition of Kirk should help some things, there is no guarantee that it will do enough to cover up all of their issues. The Texans games this season have had point totals of 23 and 39, with no team scoring more than 20 points yet (and the Bucs only got to 20 on what was essentially the last play of the game). Jacksonville’s box scores have looked solid at first glance as they have scored 26 and 27 points to start the season, but those point totals mask a lot of underlying issues, considering the defenses they have faced. The apparent running game advantage Jacksonville has is one that we should be somewhat skeptical about, as Houston was among the league’s best run defenses the last two seasons, and once again, the Jaguars benefitted from facing weaker opponents to start the year. The clearest path to this game becoming something exciting would be if Houston does press things a little bit defensively, as this would simultaneously give Thomas the opportunity to hit on some big pass plays and put Lawrence in a position to possibly make some mistakes that give Houston short fields and easy points. Either way, the most likely outcome here appears to be a competitive game with two solid defenses facing two offenses that are struggling to find a rhythm.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• The Broncos could easily be 2-0 right now if not for some self-inflicted mistakes and clock management gaffes against the Colts last week.
• Broncos second year wide receiver Troy Franklin had a breakout game in Indianapolis and it will be interesting to see if that role/usage holds up.
• Denver continues to use a frustrating three-man running back committee, led by veteran J.K. Dobbins.
• The Chargers appear committed to a pass heavy offensive game plan this season, leading the league in pass rate over expectation through two weeks by a large margin.
• Najee Harris took a much larger share of the backfield work in Week 2 as he gets back to full strength from his offseason eye injury.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

The Broncos put on a clinic in late-game mismanagement in their Week 2 loss to the Colts. Ahead by five and in field goal range in the 4th quarter, quarterback Bo Nix forced a pass to wide receiver Courtland Sutton that was intercepted. The Colts kicked a field goal to cut the lead to two on the ensuing drive. Later, the Broncos were driving and got the ball down to the Indianapolis 25-yard line with a first and ten and under five minutes remaining. Tight end Adam Trautman was called for a 15-yard face mask penalty that pushed them back, and ended up with Denver missing a field goal. The Colts then marched down the field but missed a 60-yard field goal to win, however, the Broncos committed a foolish “leverage” penalty that gave them another chance from much closer, which they converted. To summarize, there were several points where the Broncos could have still won a game where they struggled a bit on the road, but failed to execute and essentially beat themselves. This week, they enter a massive matchup with the Chargers, who can take a two-game lead in the division with a win here. The Chiefs have dominated the AFC West since 2015, but are 0-2 with a lot of holes on their roster. Both of these teams have the talent to take control but will need to show they can execute on a championship level to take advantage of the opening Kansas City is giving them. 

Denver ranks sixth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and is prone to play at a fast tempo, ranking top-10 in situation neutral pace of play in 2024 and to start this season. The Colts were able to take away Sutton, their top wide receiver, in Week 2 but Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims Jr. stepped up to make them pay. The Broncos continue to rotate their tight ends and running backs, with three players at each position being involved in the weekly game plan. Head coach Sean Payton claims that they want to get rookie running back RJ Harvey more involved, but he has historically been unreliable in his comments, and frankly, he is the one in charge of that, so his comments don’t really make sense. The Broncos have an elite offensive line, but the matchup with the Chargers is a bit of a tough one on the ground. On the surface, the Chargers look beatable, allowing 4.6 yards per carry so far this season. However, that number is largely boosted by the six rushes for 57 yards by Patrick Mahomes on scrambles in Week 1. 

The overall outlook of this game is for a high volume passing attack from Denver with the ball spread around in a variety of ways. The Chargers lost elite edge rusher Khalil Mack to an elbow injury Monday night, which should give Nix plenty of time to go through his progressions. Likewise, Nix has the mobility to make some plays with his legs against this defense the same way Mahomes did. The Broncos will not completely abandon their running game, and I would expect the backfield to once again be used in the passing game after combining for a 21.5% target share through two games. However, the Broncos probably have the most diverse and explosive passing attack the Chargers have seen to date and an offensive line that will give Nix plenty of time to make plays. Ultimately, penalties and clock management will be a massive factor for Denver if they are going to pull off a big divisional road win this week.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Chargers appear to be a new team in 2025, as traditionally run-focused head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have unleashed Justin Herbert and his weapons on a previously unforeseen level. The Chargers lead the league by a wide margin in pass rate over expectation (PROE) at 14.8% over expectation. The next closest team is the Chiefs at 7.7% over expectation. An interesting side note is that all four AFC West offenses rank in the top-6 of this category, pointing to the potential for this division to be exciting this season. The Chargers offensive approach does make sense, as they have a deep and talented receiving corps to go along with Herbert’s underrated arm talent. Their top three receivers are the dependable and efficient Ladd McConkey, explosive and physically gifted third year breakout Quentin Johnston, and the versatile and veteran Keenan Allen. Adding to that is the fact that they have two promising rookies in second round pick Tre Harris and training camp darling KeAndre Lambert-Smith who both should continue to blossom and provide explosive ability of their own. To put it simply, this approach is not just a blip on the radar.

The Chargers running game situation also plays a part in this new approach. Los Angeles lost their best offensive tackle, Rashawn Slater, for the season during training camp. They still have a decent offensive line and have held up well in pass protection, but rank 24th in adjusted line yards per carry through two weeks despite facing the Titans and Raiders – two fine, but not elite defensive fronts. This week, they face a Broncos defense that was among the league leaders in run defense in 2024 but was just torched by Jonathan Taylor in Week 2. The Colts have a superior offensive line and Taylor is one of the best pure runners in the NFL, however, making last week’s struggles for the Broncos likely a one-off situation. Considering how the Chargers approach has shifted this season and their struggles to get a push up front, we should see another pass happy game plan here. The Broncos still have an elite secondary, but the Chargers have enough versatile pieces to move the ball regardless. Denver plays a high rate of man coverage and blitzes on roughly 40% of their defensive snaps, meaning the Chargers will have to get the ball out of Herbert’s hands quickly and the focus will likely be on McConkey and Allen who are elite at gaining separation thanks to their terrific route running. All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II is most likely to shadow Johnston due to his physical traits and the type of routes that he tends to run. Expect Herbert to be throwing early and often in this one, with Allen and McConkey the primary targets and a high likelihood of some screens to take advantage of the Broncos aggression.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

These are two well coached teams with very good defenses and who are very familiar with each other. While both offenses will lean pass heavy and have solid pieces, it is unlikely that either is truly breaking things open in this spot. The Broncos pass defense is good enough that they are unlikely to get torched by the Chargers receivers and the way that the Los Angeles passing game profiles is such that drives are likely to be prolonged and involve a lot of short to intermediate passing, with chunk plays likely to be hard to come by. The Chargers should be able to move the ball, but the explosive running plays that the Colts created to give Denver fits are unlikely to be on the table here for Los Angeles. Indianapolis had their most success through their running back and tight end, which are the relative weak points for the Chargers. On the other side, Bo Nix has not performed as well as many hoped so far this season and this matchup is far from a cake walk. Similar to the Chargers situation, we should expect the Broncos to move the ball here but explosive plays to be a bit harder to find. The result of all of this is the likelihood of this game playing out as a fun and competitive one from a football standpoint, but likely to be a bit of a grinder for game environment purposes. All of that said, a high pass rate from both offenses and aggression from the defenses provides a path to some big plays or turnovers, flipping the switch here. 

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• The Saints are winless thus far this season, but have stayed competitive and been alive deep into both games.
• Saints head coach Kellen Moore has continued his aggressive pace of play tendencies we have seen at previous stops.
• Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is among the league leaders in target share and his versatile skill set makes him difficult for opponents to scheme away.
• Seattle’s defense has looked good in consecutive weeks, holding the 49ers and Steelers below 20 points.
• Kenneth Walker III drastically outperformed Zach Charbonnet in Week 2, and Charbonnet was held out of practice to start the week.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler has acquitted himself quite well through two weeks, despite the team’s 0-2 record. He has connected with his receivers and kept the team competitive until the final drive in both weeks in spite of the team seemingly being outmatched. Rattler has been especially strong at taking care of the ball, with three touchdowns and no interceptions thus far this season. The offense is flowing almost entirely through four players – running back Alvin Kamara, wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, and tight end Juwan Johnson. Johnson has been perhaps the biggest surprise and has amassed 20 targets through two weeks to lead all NFL tight ends. 

Kellen Moore has infused tempo into this offense as New Orleans leads the league in pace of play through two weeks. Moore has consistently had this approach throughout his coaching career, but there were some questions about whether it would continue on this Saints team that appears to be outmatched in many ways. He has done a great job putting Rattler in a position to succeed, as Rattler has the third-shortest time to throw among all NFL quarterbacks. The Seahawks have been blitzing at a low rate, but their coverages and blitzes tend to be of the more “exotic” type, which can often confuse opposing quarterbacks. Rattler may be in store to make some mistakes for the first time all season if he misdiagnoses the defense in his pre-snap reads and head coach Mike Macdonald is able to confuse him. This is exactly the type of matchup where Macdonald defenses often thrive.

The Seahawks secondary is among the best in the league from a personnel standpoint, and their run defense is solid as well. This leaves a situation where Rattler is likely to be using Kamara and Johnson at a very high rate. The Saints will also need their defense to hold up and keep this game competitive once again as falling behind on the road in Seattle seems like it could turn ugly quickly. Expect New Orleans to try to use pace and quick passing to counteract the Seattle crowd noise and opportunistic defense. Points will be at a premium here, and the Saints will likely be forced to march the field and convert a lot of third downs to find them. However, it wouldn’t be shocking for Moore to draw up some downfield attempts to Shaheed as a way to try to break things open early and play from a lead.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

Seattle’s offense through two weeks has been relatively mundane and predictable. Their backfield has been split almost evenly between Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, with Walker performing better in Week 2 after Charbonnet stole the show in Week 1. The Seahawks are running the ball at an extremely high rate, ranking 30th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation through two weeks. When they do throw the ball, receivers Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp are dominating the targets. JSN had a whopping 60% target share in Week 1, while the duo combined for just over 60% of the team’s targets in Week 2. New quarterback Sam Darnold has been somewhat aggressive when he does take to the air, ranking 12th in the NFL in intended air yards per pass attempt. The Seahawks play a variety of other skill position players and rotate formations and personnel, but the overwhelming majority of their usage flows through those two running backs and the two wide receivers.

The Seahawks are leaning heavily on their strong defense to win games this season. In Week 1, Seattle led into the 4th quarter before the 49ers made plays down the stretch on both sides of the ball to secure the win. In Week 2, the Seahawks were tied entering the 4th quarter before taking the lead on a field goal and scoring a touchdown when Pittsburgh mishandled the ensuing kickoff. Through two games, the Seahawks are playing at a faster pace under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, but their offense has sputtered at times regardless. The Saints were gashed on the ground by Arizona, but held their own against the 49ers. New Orleans also plays the fifth lowest rate of man coverage and blitzes at a bottom-10 rate, which means Darnold should have time to throw when he does drop back, and JSN and Kupp should have success finding holes in the zones as they are elite at doing so.

Seattle is likely to feel confident entering this home game against a relatively weak opponent, and we should expect a very similar Week 3 game plan to what we have seen in the first two weeks. The one caveat here is that Charbonnet missed practice on Wednesday with a foot injury that leaves his status in doubt. If he were to miss this game, we would expect to see Walker in a feature role and also for Seattle to increase their pass rate so as not to put too much on Walker’s plate. If Charbonnet does play, his foot injury and the fact that Walker outperformed him by a wide margin in Week 2 would seem to indicate a likely changing of the guard in terms of their usage split. In either case, the Seahawks are going to play things close to the vest and rely on their defense and home crowd rattling the visiting Saints.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

These teams both play at a fast pace but have been running the ball at a high rate through two weeks. However, we have a situation where both defensive fronts rank in the top-12 in the NFL in adjusted line yards per carry allowed. Neither offensive line entered the season regarded as especially strong, so the matchup on the ground seems somewhat difficult for both offenses. Seattle has the upper hand in the strength of their defense and the stability of their offense. The seven-point point spread seems about right, although Seattle is very likely to control this game. We have seen them hold two offenses that project to be stronger than the Saints in check the first two weeks and this would seem to be a spot where New Orleans will struggle to move the ball. When they do move the ball, Seattle is likely to hold up and force field goals rather than touchdowns. Seattle’s defensive approach of blitzing at a low rate also results in teams struggling to make explosive plays against them, the result of which is extended drives that often stall out. All things considered, Seattle games this year are likely to be relatively low scoring when they are able to be in control, which should be the case here.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has been playing at a very high level through two weeks, controlling the game with his pre-snap reads and making elite throws.
• The Dallas backfield continues to belong to Javonte Williams, while Miles Sanders offers occasional breathers and rookie Jaydon Blue has yet to be active for a game.
• Both teams have pass defenses that were absolutely torched in Week 2, while this profiles as the best matchup so far this season for both passing offenses.
• Chicago’s offense continues to struggle to consistently move the ball in large part due to their lack of a running game.
• Bears head coach Ben Johnson said this week that he was going to shake things up and potentially alter his team’s personnel usage.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

Through two weeks, Dallas has a negative pass rush over expectation (-1.9), but rank 10th in raw pass rate. Their running game has been better than most expected, with Javonte Williams leading the way and their offensive line ranking 10th in the league at 5.21 adjusted line yards per carry. In the passing game, things continue to primarily flow through CeeDee Lamb, who has seen double digit targets in both games this season. George Pickens and tight end Jake Ferguson play large supporting roles for the offense, while Kavontae Turpin continues to emerge as a threat for Dallas and is being utilized in the passing game and on some designed rushing attempts. 

Quarterback Dak Prescott is playing at an incredible level, making several big time throws in each of the first two weeks and making plays in high leverage situations. Dak was terrific in the season opening loss to the Eagles, but his numbers didn’t show it in the box score due to some drops by Lamb and the overall nature of the matchup and game environment. Then, against the Giants, Dak really exploded but his numbers were overshadowed by the massive performance by Russell Wilson and the fact that kicker Brandon Aubrey made four field goals and his backfield had two of the touchdowns. Dak completed 73% of his passes, however, and played the Giants secondary like a symphony throughout the game. Dak showcased his veteran savvy and elite offensive mind by making checks at the line and picking apart the New York secondary before the ball was even snapped. This combination of pre- and post-snap quarterbacking was a sight to behold and the Cowboys needed every bit of it to come out with a win.

This week, Dallas gets arguably their best matchup of the season against a Bears team that is not getting much pressure and just got torched by Jared Goff and the Lions. Chicago’s star cornerback, Jaylon Johnson, aggravated a groin injury in Week 2 and is likely to miss some time. The Cowboys should have success with the creative ways they use Lamb, while also opening some things up for their other weapons. The Cowboys offensive line ranks 8th in adjusted line yards per carry and while they are not built to run the ball at the level Detroit did, they should have enough success to complement the passing game. The one element Dallas has not been able to unlock so far this season has been explosive downfield passes, but this week against this Bears secondary they are likely to connect on a couple of deep shots as Dak should have plenty of time to throw and their running game should provide enough of a threat to make their play action concepts more effective.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

Bears head coach Ben Johnson has not minced words following Chicago’s embarrassing loss at the hands of his former employer, calling out the team’s practice habits and on-field effort and saying that positions and playing time would be re-evaluated in the aftermath. The most obvious candidates for increased roles are rookie TE Colston Loveland (10th overall) and WR Luther Burden III (39th overall), who have barely contributed in the box score and played modest snaps through two weeks. 

Rookie seventh round pick Kyle Monangai could also see an increased role after D’Andre Swift had another ineffective game. The Bears lead the NFL in yards before contact per rush attempt (1.89), yet are 31st in rush EPA (expected points added) and 32nd in rushing success rate. What those numbers mean is that the team’s improved offensive line is blocking well, but Swift is operating as essentially the least efficient running back you can imagine. This shouldn’t be considered a surprise, as Swift has never been a great between the tackles runner and has poor vision and decision making in those settings. He is most effectively used as an explosive back who you scheme the ball to in space. Fundamentally, this Bears offense is going to struggle to consistently move the ball until they can get their running game operating at least at a level close to average.

As for the passing game, Caleb Williams has looked rough to start the season and made his share of mistakes. However, he has played two of the more aggressive blitzing defenses in the league and his erratic play and decision making has been in large part caused by those opponents. This week is just what the doctor ordered with a matchup against a Dallas defense that just let Russell Wilson have a career game a week after nearly being benched. The Cowboys secondary was torched all game and was especially vulnerable in the slot where nickel corner Reddy Steward was beaten like a drum last week and the team’s zone concepts were hammered with vertical routes up the seam by the Giants. As a coach, the best time to make a personnel change is in a spot where the players you are giving new opportunity to will have success. This profiles as such a spot where Johnson could theoretically make Loveland and Burden a priority early in the game, especially on early scripted plays where Chicago has had their most success to start the year. Primary receivers Rome Odunze, who is in the midst of a second year breakout, and DJ Moore each line up in the slot on about one-third of their snaps and each should have opportunities to cook the Dallas secondary. Chicago currently has a negative pass rate to expectation, but given their run games ineffectiveness and how good this matchup is through the air we should expect an aggressive passing attack from the outset of this one.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has all the makings of a back-and-forth shootout, it is just a matter of how we get there. Each offense has a lot of playmakers and well-designed schemes and route concepts, while both pass defenses are reeling. Dallas is playing at the fourth fastest tempo in the league and Ben Johnson’s teams historically like to push the pace. Dak Prescott is a wizard at the line of scrimmage, while Johnson’s play calling and now having two weeks of film on this Dallas defense makes it highly likely that he has his team ready to pounce and have their best offensive game of the season here. Elevated pass rates, mediocre running games, defenses who fail to pressure the quarterback, and secondaries with glaring holes all combine to make this a game with many paths to being must-watch TV on Sunday afternoon. Get your popcorn ready.

DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Arizona enters this game with a 2-0 record but has benefited from an incredibly easy schedule to date. 
• San Francisco continues to deal with injuries among their skill players as quarterback Brock Purdy and wide receiver Jauan Jennings are in doubt for this week. 
• The Cardinals defense sustained several injuries in last week’s victory over Carolina, which we will want to monitor leading up to kickoff. 
• Cardinals second year running back Trey Benson continues to have a meaningful role for the Arizona offense. 
• The role of star Arizona wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. continues to fluctuate and game script often makes him a non-factor completely.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

If you look at the standings, you will see a Cardinals team tied for the division lead. If you watched the games, you know this is a team that is extremely lucky to be sitting where they are. The schedule makers did Arizona a huge favor by giving them the Saints and Panthers to start the season. Both of those teams are consensus bottom-quartile NFL teams entering the year and haven’t done anything to prove that expectation wrong so far. Despite that soft opening, the Cardinals conservative approach and methodical style allowed both opponents to stay within striking distance and have opportunities to win late in the game. This week, Arizona gets by far their toughest test as they had to San Francisco to face a familiar foe. 

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The Cardinals will try to win this game by leveraging Kyler Murray’s dual-threat abilities. Last year in this same matchup, Murray set the tone for the game by busting off a 50+ yard rushing TD that gave Arizona a lead and helped them control the game script. There is no doubt that both teams will remember that, with Arizona looking to find a way to replicate it and the 49ers taking steps to ensure it does not happen again. In the passing game, we can expect the Cardinals offense to run primarily through tight end Trey McBride. However, the presence of All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner makes for a difficult matchup for McBride. The 49ers under Robert Saleh like to sit back in coverage and let their front four get pressure on the quarterback. They will almost certainly approach this game in that way while putting a “Spy” on Murray.  The Cardinals will also look to exploit mismatches against the 49ers’ potentially vulnerable secondary and may use short passes to move the chains and control the game clock on the road. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. was a non-factor against the Panthers after Arizona jumped out to a big lead, but this week he should be more involved as Arizona knows they will need a lot of points to pull off the win. One of the “surprises” for Arizona’s offense thus far has been a near-even split of the backfield work between veteran James Conner and explosive second year back Trey Benson. Expect the backfield to be busy in this one as Arizona is likely to be reluctant to push the ball downfield and the matchup for McBride may push more of the short area targets to the running backs.

This Arizona team is not one that actively tries to build big leads with aggression, but rather tries to play solid football and give themselves a chance in the fourth quarter. Occasionally, opponents will “beat themselves” with mistakes and fall behind Arizona – but as we saw last week with the Panthers nearly coming back from three scores down, the Cardinals lack of aggression tends to always keep their opponents in the game.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers rank second in the NFL in third down conversion percentage through two weeks, much of which is a result of them putting themselves in very manageable situations. This success has become common for San Francisco, as they have finished eighth or better in that category in each of the last three seasons. The presence of Christian McCaffrey certainly plays a large part in that as his rushing efficiency and versatility in the receiving game allows head coach Kyle Shanahan to be creative with his early down play calling. Likewise, CMC is often able to make something out of nothing and extend drives by converting first downs. The success of the 49ers offense over the last few years really is something to behold. They have been very good at creating chunk plays and explosives both in the running game and passing game, but have been able to do so while also converting third downs at a high rate due to prudent early down play calling. In this week’s matchup with the Cardinals, all of these things should come together nicely for San Francisco. 

True to form, the Arizona defense looks very similar this season to what we have seen in recent years. Their defense, under head coach Jonathan Gannon, primarily plays a unique “Quarters” zone coverage system, ranking as one of the league’s leaders in its usage, along with a high rate of Cover-2. This complex scheme uses three-high safety alignments and allows them to disguise their zone coverages effectively while occasionally using a five-man front. Arizona also blitzes at the sixth lowest rate in the NFL. Both of these tendencies are conservative in nature as the Cardinals often have a lot of bodies dropping in coverage and they place them in such a way with their coverages as to prevent explosive plays.

What this means for this week is the 49ers should have success in the short to intermediate areas of the field. They are likely to be without Brock Purdy for the second straight week and Jauan Jennings has added an ankle injury to his list of issues as he missed the first two practices of the week. The result will be another massive dose of Christian McCaffrey in what has historically been a very good matchup for his skill set. Arizona is reluctant to load the box and leave themselves vulnerable to deep passing, which opens up rushing lanes for the 49ers run scheme and also gives CMC opportunities to get the ball in space and make defenders miss. San Francisco got backup RB Brian Robinson Jr. involved in Week 2 as they look to somewhat manage CMC’s workload, and this should be another RB-heavy game plan. Look for second year wide receiver Ricky Pearsall to be heavily involved if Jennings is indeed held out, while veteran Kendrick Bourne could step in for some of the intermediate routes that Jennings would normally run. Arizona had five defenders leave Week 2 with injuries and at least three are in danger of missing this matchup. The 49ers offense itself is beat up, so this would amount to making it a level playing field if Arizona is missing some players. Regardless, the scheme and talent of the 49ers is such that they should have success in this spot.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The 49ers under Kyle Shanahan have historically operated at a slow rate, while this year’s Cardinals offense ranks 31st in the NFL in raw pace of play. The Cardinals offense lacks explosive plays, while the 49ers offense is missing at least two and possibly three of their main skill players (Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle for sure, maybe Jennings as well). Both defenses are well coached and disciplined, while playing primarily conservative zone coverages and blitzing at bottom-10 rates in the league. The summary of all of this is that these teams are likely to move methodically and have to sustain long drives in order to score points. The 49ers seemingly have the upper hand as their offensive scheme is much more adept at creating chunk plays, and their defense has a lot more playmakers and fewer injuries. Expect this game to be relatively slow-moving in the early going as these teams feel each other out while bleeding the clock. However, as things move along we should expect the 49ers to poke holes in the Arizona defense and break through for some big plays to give themselves a lead.

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the Chiefs visiting the Giants for a 45 total game with Kansas City favored by 6. That gives the Chiefs an implied team total of 24.75 points, something they have yet to accomplish this year and only reached eight times during the regular season (not including one OT game) last year. They are also facing one of the toughest defenses in the league and they’re on the road. I don’t normally bet sides and totals, but I took an under on the Chiefs team total here. 

KANSAS CITY

Kansas City’s backfield is currently split with Isaiah Pacheco in a slight lead and Kareem Hunt hanging around 40% of the snaps. Pacheco only has 15 carries through two games (yikes) to go along with 5 targets, while Hunt has 13 carries and 4 targets. Hunt has the only touch from either RB inside the 10-yard line this year. It’s really tough to put up strong scores as a running back averaging 10 or fewer touches per game when the team is going pass-heavy when they get in close (Mahomes has six pass attempts inside the 10). While I do think that Chiefs running backs will turn in useful games at some point this season, all of the data points we have reflect this being a tough spot. Pacheco is priced to where he’ll need to do more than fall into a touchdown to hit, whereas Hunt could pay off with an end zone trip and not much more, so that’s the way I’d lean here. I’ll still have Pacheco in my player pool, but with fairly modest exposure. 

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In the passing game, the Chiefs are currently running out Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Tyquan Thornton, who are combining for almost all of the wide receiver snaps. Jason Brownlee is playing a very modest role and can be considered an extremely thin punt. So far, we’ve seen 21 targets for Brown (including 16 in Week 1), 8 for Juju, and 9 for Thornton. Brown has the safest floor of the group as well as the highest ceiling, as he’s the only one who really has a reasonable path to double-digit targets. At $8,400, he’s a bit underpriced for that kind of role, even with a tough matchup, and projects as one of the stronger skill position plays on the slate. JuJu is awfully cheap for a WR2 who’s playing so many snaps, but his per-target upside is extremely modest with a 6-yard aDOT. If he scores a touchdown or finds his way to a spike in targets, he could pay off, but odds are he’ll need an end zone trip to do it. Thornton plays the deep role and it’s a REALLY deep role with a 31.6-yard aDOT so far (lol, #1 in the NFL). He’s accounted for 49% of the Chiefs total air yards through their first two games. He’ll need to catch a long one to pay off, but unlike JuJu he can pay off in a single catch. He’s a volatile option but projects as a solid value and his ceiling is awfully high for his salary.

At tight end, we have Travis Kelce, who is, unfortunately, clearly in the tail end of his career. He has 10 targets on the season with an aDOT of 6.1. His profile is basically the same as JuJu’s, except he’s more useful after the catch and his red zone role is bigger. He’s also 8k. The price is somewhat prohibitive for his current role. He belongs in player pools because he can still find ceiling games from time to time, but he’s a tough sell as a primary piece. TE2 Noah Gray is not that far behind Kelce in snaps and routes. I prefer both Thornton and JuJu but he’s a viable cheap option, and then if you’re really desperate, you can hope Robert Tonyan sees his first target of the year (he’s been on the field and he’s minimum salary, and he’s not really a blocking TE, so at some point he’ll get a target or two). 

NEW YORK

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 3 wraps up with the Lions visiting the Ravens for a massive 54.5 total game (sure wish this one was on the main slate) with Baltimore favored by 4.5. The Ravens have started the season off strong on offense, scoring 40 and 41 points, while the Lions were absolutely stymied by the Packers elite defense before putting up 52 points on the Bears last week. Both of these teams boast elite offenses (they were also ranked 1st and 3rd in points per game last year). We should see some fireworks.

BALTIMORE

On Baltimore’s side, Derrick Henry absolutely smashed Buffalo for 169 yards and 2 scores before being bottled up by the Browns elite run defense last week. The Lions have been middle of the pack in run defense efficiency this season, but few teams are able to stop the Ravens rushing attack, given that they have to cover both Henry and Lamar Jackson, and if they sell out to stop that, Lamar will pick them apart deep. As a back who doesn’t catch passes, Henry’s floor is always a little on the scary side, but his ceiling is one of the highest in the game. RB2 Justice Hill is playing a lot of snaps but not seeing a lot of work so far, with just 10 touches in two games. We know, though, that snap count is the most predictive stat when it comes to running back production, so we should expect better things ahead for Hill. At $2,800, he represents a reasonable value option with a solid floor on a slate that has primarily volatile cheap options.

One other thing to keep an eye on is that Lamar Jackson has only rushed 8 times in two games so far after averaging close to 10 carries per game over the last two seasons. I don’t think he’ll end quite this low, but we could be seeing the Ravens start to shift things a bit as Lamar gets older in order to try and protect him, similarly to what we tend to see with other running QBs as they age. It’s not something I would put much weight on for this game, but something to watch as we go forward. 

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In the passing game, oh man. The Ravens just spread it around so much. Last week, they scored 4 passing touchdowns. DeAndre Hopkins had one, Devontez Walker had two, and Tylan Wallace had one. That’s four passing scores to guys who all played 50% or fewer of the snaps (Walker has played 13 total offensive snaps so far this season), while Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews all came up dry. Touchdown variance is a bitch. Flowers, however, saw a whopping 11 targets on just 29 Lamar dropbacks, giving him an insane (and unsustainable) 42.6% target share on the season. This won’t continue, but he’s the clear WR1 and the best bet for dependable volume on a modest passing volume offense. $8,400 looks like a very nice price for Flowers given his lion’s share of the Ravens passing attack. Past that, who even knows? Bateman’s on the field the most, though he’s never been a prolific target earner, but $4k is a very enticing price. He’s a volatile option but probably at least $1k too cheap. Hopkins saw his snap rate collapse last week, likely due to the game quickly looking non-competitive, but I think he’ll play more as the season goes on, and in competitive games, which this should be. He’s no longer as explosive as he was in his prime but he’s still looked like a solid option so far with some nice long catches of 29 and 41 yards. I prefer Bateman at a cheaper price, but Hopkins is fine. Walker and Wallace are hold your nose and pray dart throws.

At tight end, poor Mark Andrews is starting the season off really slow with just 4 targets in two games, for a total of…wait for it…7 receiving yards. Andrews is now 30 years old and his days of 8+ target games and breaking 100 receiving yards are probably behind him, but let’s remember people wrote him off after a slow start to last season as well, and then he had 11 receiving touchdowns in the season’s final 12 weeks, only failing to find the end zone twice. His profile looks more volatile than in the past, but I wouldn’t put much stock at all into two games, and I think he’s significantly underpriced at $4,400 (he’s normally in the $6k – $8k range in Showdowns). I want a lot of him. TE2 Charlie Kolar is a better punt option than the rotational wide receivers, as he’s on the field a lot more, but he’s still thin, as this is just a very low volume offense behind Flowers. At $600, he’s definitely in my pool, though, and he’s my favorite of any of the real Baltimore cheapies.

DETROIT