XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 2 begins with the Commanders visiting the Packers for a game with a 48-point total and Green Bay favored by 3.5. Both teams are coming off dominating Week 1 wins. The Commanders beat the Giants 21-6 while the Packers crushed the Lions 27-13. Of those, the latter is more impressive given that the Lions are an elite offense while the Giants are…well…not. It’s important to remember in Week 2 that we probably know less than we did even in Week 1, because now we have single data points to overreact to. How a team approaches one game, especially one in which they’ve had months to plan, is not necessarily how they will approach every game. Just remember that one game does not tell us all that much, and we need to continue to embrace volatility until we get further into the season and know who these teams are. 

Washington

The Commanders backfield in Week 1 started with Austin Ekeler at the beginning of the game, as he played 47% of the total snaps and handled 6 carries while seeing 3 targets. Four of Ekeler’s carries came in the first quarter, and then they seemed to move away from him. Worth noting here is that Ekeler was listed as limited on Monday with a shoulder issue, so it’s possible this popped up during the game and led to his workload being scaled back, or it’s possible the Commanders gave him the start as a nod of respect to the veteran before splitting things how they intended all along. Rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt (also known as “Bill” for some reason – and since that’s much briefer, that’s what we’ll call him) handled 10 carries and ran for 82 yards and a score, while Jeremy McNichols had 4 carries. There’s a lot of rushing in this Commanders offense as Jayden Daniels also rushed 11 times while Deebo Samuel got a carry (and a score) as well. That makes it a bit tricky to trust any running back here, and with Bill now at $7k, he’s a bit overpriced if you think he’s playing 35-40% of the snaps and getting 10 touches with no passing game involvement. Again, it’s only one week of data, so don’t read too much into it, but based on that week, I’m a little gunshy of this Commanders backfield. It’s tough to imagine anyone getting 15+ touches, let alone 20. The matchup is tough as a road underdog, and you have to worry about having touchdowns vultured by both Daniels and Deebo. I’ll have some exposure here in MME, but not a lot. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, Deebo and Terry McLaurin led the way with 77% and 79% of the snaps, respectively. I was a bit surprised to see McLaurin play that much, given that he had very few reps in training camp due to an ankle injury and a contract dispute, but while he was out there plenty, he wasn’t that involved. I’d expect his involvement to ramp up this week, though if you ask me to guess, I’d guess Deebo is still a slight favorite to lead the team in targets. Last week, Deebo had 10 targets while McLaurin had 4, and while this gap should close, I don’t think it’s going to completely close in a single week. Both of these guys are interesting at reasonable prices of $8,600 for Deebo and $9k for McLaurin, with a slight preference to Deebo for me (I like WRs who also get carries!). Last week, we saw all of Noah Brown, Jaylin Lane, Chris Moore, and even Luke McCaffrey get wide snaps behind the two main guys, with Brown leading the way. Brown also missed time in training camp, so it’s possible his role could grow as he gets healthier. I think he has the most upside of this group, and at just $3,200, he’s worth playing in some lineups. He’s also historically been much better against zone defenses, which the Packers played at a league-high rate last week and will likely do again to help limit Daniels’ rushing ability. Moore and Lane can be sprinkled in tournaments, while McCaffrey is a very thin dart throw who only played 5 snaps last week and could vanish entirely in any given game. 

At tight end, Zach Ertz played a respectable-but-not-awesome 64% of the snaps, though he managed to be second on the team in targets and scored their only passing touchdown, while John Bates played 53% of the snaps without a target. Ertz is aging and no longer has the same kind of explosiveness we’ve seen from him in the past, but he’s still a capable pass catcher. At $5,800, he’s a little on the expensive side for his likeliest range of outcomes and will be one of those “he’s in my player pool but not a guy I’m trying to push a lot of exposure of” plays, while Bates at $600 is a thin dart throw (Bates saw just 13 targets last season in 17 games). 

Green Bay

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY HILOW >>

• Jaguars dealt RB Tank Bigsby to the Eagles. We should see rookie Bhayshul Tuten step into his vacated role while Travis Etienne operates as the clear lead back in a Liam Coen offense.
• In Al Golden’s first game as the defensive coordinator for the Bengals, they were about as vanilla as they come – 4.2% blitz rate, 35.4% Cover-1 rate, very little movement in the second level.
• The Cincinnati offense also remains as vanilla as they come – little pre-snap motion, almost no play action, heavy rates of shotgun, Ja’Marr Chase on the line of scrimmage.
• The Bengals could find themselves in trouble against an opponent like the Jaguars, who are capable of stressing them deep.
• This game has all the makings of a get-right spot for Brian Thomas Jr.

HOW jacksonville WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Liam Coen era in Jacksonville was a sight to behold. We saw increased rates of play action and pre-snap motion, route structures were layered and designed to generate space for his playmakers, the run scheme was dynamic, using everything from pulling guards, to misdirection, to pre-snap motion-aided blocking schemes, to an end-around touchdown for Thomas. Execution was still not all there, as Trevor Lawrence absolutely locked into his first read (fourth-highest first-read target rate in Week 1, 80.6%), but that also speaks to the general goal of Coen’s offense, which is to simplify things for his signal-caller. I expect this offense to continue to grow as the season progresses. I would love to see Lawrence less reliant on his intermediate option as his first read, something he was far too comfortable with in Week 1 given a 7.4-yard aDOT and middling 9.7% deep-ball throw rate. Newcomer defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile used very little man coverage against the Panthers, broken down to 35.0% Cover-3, 20.0% Cover-4, and 17.5% Cover-6. I expect those trends to continue against the Bengals in an attempt to keep Chase in front of the back end.

The run game was the most noticeable improvement for the Jaguars, which makes sense considering their offseason coaching hires. Etienne’s returns in Week 1 become that much more impressive when you realize the Jaguars blocked to the second-fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt in Week 1, with Etienne generating a ridiculous 85 total yards after contact against the Panthers. A robust total of 61.5% of these rushing yards came via explosive runs, which is equal parts impressive as it is unsustainable. His 12.8 expected fantasy points tell a more accurate tale of his usage in this offense, at present. But then again, Coen’s backfields have made a name for outperforming expectations, just realize the early returns from Etienne are probably skewed a bit based on advanced metrics. The departure of Bigsby opens up the change-of-pace role for rookie Bhayshul Tuten, who should significantly improve upon the four offensive snaps he saw in Week 1. Most interesting to me was the inclusion of LeQuint Allen Jr in the offensive game plan. He saw nine offensive snaps, all of which were long down-and-distance snaps of third-and-3 or longer. That effectively reduces the weekly ceiling for Etienne slightly. 

Golden’s static defense could be in a world of hurt against Thomas this week. A massive 35.4% Cover-1 rate with a lowly 4.2% blitz rate and only 10.4% pressure rate could expose their back end to speed. Rookie Travis Hunter was used heavily in the slot (76.0% slot snap rate) and carried a lowly 6.9-yard aDOT, which left both Thomas (11.9-yard aDOT) and Dyami Brown (13.5-yard aDOT) responsible for downfield work. Both Brown and Hunter were tasked with route rates in the sub-80% range, tight end Brenton Strange was held to a 60.6% route participation rate, and Thomas led the team with an 87.9% route participation rate. Brown theoretically could return upside if the Bengals pay additional defensive attention to Thomas,  but I honestly don’t think they will after what I saw on tape in Week 1. All of that to say, it should be wheels up for Thomas in this spot. Thomas’ 2.72 yards per route run (YPRR), 0.29 targets per route run (TPRR), and 0.54 fantasy points per route run (FPRR) against Cover-1 in his rookie season has definite room for improvement, but this looks like a spot to shake off the Week 1 woes. It also makes sense that Hunter and Strange saw increased target rates against the Cover-3-heavy and zone-heavy ways of the Panthers, with the Bengals presenting a very different look this week.

HOW CINCINNATI WILL TRY TO WIN ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY HILOW >>

• Dak Prescott looked like a top-tier quarterback in the team’s Week 1 loss to the Eagles.
• The NYG front seven might be one of the best in the league in 2025.
• That said, their secondary is a dumpster fire.
• The Giants have an absolutely brutal schedule to start the season, with the loss to the Commanders, the Cowboys, the Chiefs, and the Chargers over the first four weeks, before a “harder than public perception” matchup with the Saints, the Eagles twice, and the Broncos to round out their first eight games.
• I think it’s likely we see rookie QB Jaxson Dart at some point during that run.
• Malik Nabers saw his slot snap rate balloon to 38.5% in Week 1, something the Giants should look to emphasize with Cowboys’ NCB DaRon Bland likely out.
• Yea, I get it, CeeDee Lamb committed some costly drops against the Eagles in Week 1, but he remains the focal point of an offense that could challenge for the league lead in pass attempts this season.
• The George Pickens experience was George Pickensing in Week 1. The veteran headcase quit on numerous plays, displayed a mix of vicious blocking with snaps of zero effort, and has yet to develop the deep connection with Dak. There will likely be games this season where things fall into place and he wrecks a slate, but figuring out when that might be is likely to be painful.

HOW NEW YORK WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Giants appeared to be overmatched against the Commanders in all aspects except their front seven, which performed admirably in a difficult spot. That should be the case for most of the year, as this team is stacked up front. Their secondary, on the other hand, is another story entirely. PFF charted Paulson Adebo 74^th of 113 qualifying corners in coverage grade in Week 1, Deonte Banks 42^nd of 113, and slot corner Dru Phillips 76^th of 113. The could continue to get lit up through the air all season. 

They also got torched for 220 yards on the ground against the Commanders and accounted for a lowly 24.1% stuff rate, ceding 8.2 yards per carry to rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and 6.3 yards per carry to Jeremy McNichols. Even so, they yielded only 1.79 yards before contact per attempt in the face of an extremely difficult matchup. On the offensive side of the ball, quarterback Russell Wilson really struggled in the face of mounting pressure in Week 1 (33.3% pressure rate allowed), finishing ahead of only Bryce Young, Tua Tagovailoa, and Cam Ward in QBR while completing just 17 of 37 passes. The structure of the offense seemed “fine” on film – nothing overly flashy but they were trying to do things to create space for Nabers, including an elevated 38.5% slot snap rate.

Tyrone Tracy had a stranglehold on the backfield in Week 1, with an elevated 74% snap rate and 15 opportunities (of 22 total, 68.2% opportunity share). Unfortunately for him (and for the Giants), an ineffective offensive line that facilitated just 1.77 yards before contact per attempt suffocated any upside in those looks. He had zero explosive runs, a 60% stuff rate, one missed tackle forced, and a lowly 2.60 yards after contact per attempt. Here’s a fun one – 108.3% of Tracy’s yards in Week 1 came after contact – he had 24 yards, with 26 of them coming after contact. Not great, Bob. The Cowboys allowed 2.41 yards before contact per attempt in Week 1 but that was against the best offensive line in the league, and they managed to hold Saquon Barkley to just 3.3 yards per carry on 18 attempts. Volume should be there for Tracy here, but expecting a path to ceiling is asking a lot.

Nabers accounted for a ridiculous 68.6% of the team’s air yards in Week 1, played 100% of the offensive snaps, and was in a route at a solid 91.1% rate. This offense is still very much built around him. His 29.7% target rate, 0.27 targets per route run (TPRR), and 47.8% first-read target rate are all elite or borderline elite, but he’ll need improved quarterback play (what’s new) to return elite ceiling. It’s in there, waiting to be released, but Wilson is absolutely going to need to play better football (at least until Dart takes over under center). The good news for the Giants is that Bland appears on track to miss this one after suffering a foot injury, and Nabers can be schemed away from Trevon Diggs. 

Nabers’ increased slot snap rate also lines him up opposite something called a “Reddy Steward” (sorry Reddy, no smoke intended), a former undrafted free agent that spent the bulk of his rookie season on the Bears’ practice squad, appearing in just one contest. That is a mismatch the Giants absolutely must take advantage of to be successful here. Darius Slayton remains a near deep-only option in the offense who is more useful for what he does to manipulate opposing defenses, Wan’Dale Robinson remains a near slot-only gadget short-area option, and second-year tight end Theo Johnson committed two drops on three targets in Week 1. It’s largely Nabers or nothing here. Final note here – Nabers managed 2.31 YPRR, 46.1% air yards share, 0.30 TPRR, and 0.46 FP/RR against Cover-2, Cover-3, and Cover-4 in his rookie year (Cowboys almost exclusively played from these coverages in Week 1). 

HOW DALLAS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• The big story of this game is the homecoming of Bears head coach Ben Johnson to Detroit, where he was previously the offensive coordinator. 
• The Bears are playing on a short week after blowing their Monday night matchup against the Vikings despite an 11-point second half lead.
• Detroit’s offense looked like a shell of itself in their first game since losing Johnson to the Bears, and they will look to get back on track this week.
• Jahmyr Gibbs had a larger share of the Lions backfield in Week 1 than we saw at any time prior to David Montgomery’s injury last year.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

The Bears opened Monday night on a tear with a clean touchdown drive and it appeared that Ben Johnson’s arrival was going to solve much of what troubled them in 2024. That excitement quickly dissipated, however, as Chicago went nearly three quarters of game time before their offense scored another touchdown. The Bears then had a nice drive to give themselves a chance late, but ultimately came up short. Zooming out, we can see that the team’s success came in two very clear scenarios. The first was early in the game with scripted plays. The second was late in borderline desperation mode and playing at a faster pace. This evaluation coincides with what most film watchers will tell you was the story of 2024 – quarterback Caleb Williams not processing things and going through his reads well. In the scripted plays, he already knows what he needs to do, while the hurry-up mode, by nature, has him playing more freely and often facing less suffocating defenses. 

Week 2 against the Lions will provide a very similar test. The Vikings were bringing a variety of blitzes and overwhelmed the Bears protection schemes, pushing Williams off his spot and forcing him into playground mode with regularity. Detroit has a new defensive coordinator as well, but blitzed on 35% of their snaps in Week 1 – which is similar to what we have seen in past seasons. The Lions run defense was elite in 2023 before injuries tore them up last season. In Week 1 they held the Packers to 3.1 yards per carry, seemingly getting back to their strong point. This is important to know because the Bears backfield leaves a lot to be desired. Running back D’Andre Swift is more of a space and receiving back than a true workhorse, which makes it hard for the Bears to establish a consistent physical element on the ground. Swift played on 54 offensive snaps, which represented an 81% snap share, and had a 52% utilization rate in the season’s opening week.

The Bears played at the fifth slowest rate in the NFL in Week 1. Looking at this matchup, the best approach seems like it would be a higher pass rate (focused on the quick passing game) and an increase in no-huddle, while playing at a brisk pace. This would emphasize the strengths of their personnel by getting Swift in space, getting Williams in rhythm, and slowing down the Lions pass rush via the blitz. Chicago is unlikely to have much success through the traditional running game and Williams is likely to make costly mistakes if they try to run deeper and longer developing routes too often.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY HILOW >>

• This game should be another defensive battle between two top defenses in the league, similar to the game environment each of these teams played in Week 1.
• Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Davante Adams combined to account for 70.4% of the Rams’ opportunities in Week 1, in what should remain a highly concentrated offense in Los Angeles.
• Titans tookie WR Elic Ayomanor ranked seventh in air yards in Week 1, which is quite the startling accomplishment for a rookie in his first NFL game. For those that were around for BB+ this offseason, you know we’ve been talking about Elic all offseason – the returns in the box score are sure to pick up in short order.
• The Titans face a murderer’s row of defenses to start the season – loss to Broncos, Rams, Colts, and Texans before facing the Cardinals, Raiders, and Patriots. It could take some time to see the true breakout from Cam Ward and company.

HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Rams are no longer the team looking to go out and eviscerate their opponents, maximizing scoring potential with each possession. Matthew Stafford is on the tail end of his career, they have a running back that can eat up volume, and their defense is one of the top units in the league, which is impressive considering their recent personnel turnover the previous two offseasons. They were near league average in pass rate over expectation (PROE) in Week 1 and ran just 57 offensive plays in a slugfest victory. But, that goes to reinforce the changing dynamics of this team in their current state – the goal is to win games, and they can now do that in different ways than they were forced to in the past. 

We also know that this offense will continue to be highly concentrated, with the trio of Williams (16 carries and two targets), Nacua (11 targets and one carry), and Adams (eight targets) accounting for a ridiculous 70.4% of the available opportunities against the Texans. Expect another low-team-volume game that is highly concentrated amongst the top three skill-position players. Finally, their 30.1 seconds per play mark in Week 1 ranked near the middle of the pack as well.

For all the offseason hubbub regarding rookie Jarquez Hunter and Blake Corum, this backfield remained Kyren’s in Week 1. Hunter was a healthy inactive and Corum saw just one carry and one target. Kyren’s 90.3% opportunity share ranked third and his 91.4% snap rate ranked first at the position. He also saw four red-zone opportunities, including two goal-line carries. The Titans have a solid all-around defense but are likely to be susceptible to opposing ground games this season for as long as they are unable to sustain drives on the offensive side of the ball, which places additional stress on their run defense due simply to volume. We aren’t overly likely to see Kyren with a highly efficient game here, but volume is almost assuredly to be there. The Titans held their own along the defensive line for most of the game against the Broncos, ceding a middling 2.07 yards before contact per attempt. The 5.0 yards allowed per carry were ballooned by explosive runs by rookie RJ Harvey, otherwise holding J.K. Dobbins to just 3.9 yards per tote.

As was touched on above, this offense is extremely concentrated about its top playmakers. Nacua remains the lead pass catcher after a ridiculous 0.52 targets per route run (TPRR) in Week 1. He was forced to primarily work the intermediate areas of the field against a strong Texans unit, leading to modest 8.4-yard aDOT and 6.19 yards per route run (YPRR) marks. Adams might have lost a step physically but he remains one of the smartest receivers in the league, something that should prolong his career. He was responsible for a solid 0.31 TPRR but also was a victim of the Houston defense, resulting in an 8.8-yard aDOT and 1.96 yards per route run. The difference in expected fantasy points between the top two pass catchers was minimal, highlighting the role Adams will have in this offense in 2025. 

Tyler Higbee (56.3% route rate), Tutu Atwell (53.1%), Davis Allen (34.4%), Colby Parkinson (28.1%), and Jordan Whittington (28.1%) round out the pass-catching corps, none of whom are serious fantasy bets in this offense, barring injury. Slot corner Roger McCreary has had an up-and-down career through three seasons, but he graded as PFF’s No. 6 corner out of 113 qualifiers in coverage grade in Week 1. He should see a lot of Nacua here. L’Jarius Snead has been a top coverage corner for much of his illustrious career (7/113 in Week 1). Jarvis Brownlee is the weak link in the secondary as far as coverage is concerned, largely making his mark against the run. Consider it a difficult matchup on paper through the air.

HOW TENNESSEE WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• This game involves the two teams that were at the top of the league in blitz rate in Week 1 (MIA: 51.5%, NE: 43.6%).
• The Patriots left Week 1 ranked first in PROE at 14.3%.
• New England blocked to the second fewest adjusted yards before contact, while the Dolphins ceded the fifth fewest in Week 1 – the matchup on the ground is poor for the Patriots.
• The Dolphins appear legitimately broken on offense – the tape shows so much more than simply “this team is seeing an increased rate of two-high.”
• Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but this game carries an extremely wide range of outcomes.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots effectively threw caution to the wind in Week 1. They left the season’s first week with the highest pass rate over expectation and second-highest blitz rate, making them one of, if not the, most aggressive teams in the league (small sample size alert, through one game). But those tendencies also check out on the surface, considering their offseason coaching changes. Mike Vrabel and Terrell Williams coached together in Tennessee, where the two combined to create a defense with, and I quote, “unwavering violence.” I think that effectively summarizes what to expect from the Patriots this season, and Week 1 delivered on that promise.

The elevated pass rates appear to be more out of necessity than out of desire, to me, in that this team likely doesn’t want to be near the top of the league in PROE if they can help it. The issue here is twofold: (1) the New England offensive line blocked to the lowest adjusted line yards before contact of any team in Week 1 (1.32), and (2) the Dolphins allowed just 1.68 adjusted yards before contact (fifth) to the Colts. I think it’s likely we see another game where their offensive game plan devolves into increased rates of aerial aggression. Much of the low yards per carry allowed by the Dolphins in Week 1 should be attributed to their borderline egregious stacked box rates, with the team almost making heavy boxes their base against the Colts. This backfield was very much a “lead back and change of pace back” situation in Week 1, something that took a lot of the industry by surprise. Rhamondre Stevenson is not sailing off into the wind without a fight here, and I don’t think the powers that be in New England want that, either. Stevenson saw a solid 65% snap rate and handled 13 running back opportunities (seven carries and six targets) to the 11 of Henderson (35% snap rate). I also found it interesting that the team used effectively zero 21-personnel in their loss, something that is atypical of a Josh McDaniels’ offense. Fullback/tight end Jack Westover played just two offensive snaps while Antonio Gibson saw just five. For all the things the Dolphins did poorly against the Colts, they did hold Jonathan Taylor to 3.9 yards per carry and DJ Giddens to 3.4 yards per carry. In other words, the strength of this defense is its seven-man front.

On the contrary, the Miami secondary is in shambles, and if this team is going to continue to blitz like they did in Week 1 (league-leading 51.5%), we should continue to see them getting burned through the air. That sets up Kayshon Boutte for a nice spot on paper in Week 2 after the third-year receiver led the team in snaps, route participation, targets (tied with Hunter Henry), receptions (tied with Stefon Diggs and Henderson), and yardage, amongst wide receivers. He was their featured player when watching that game back on film, with him moving around the formation and with him having the most intricate route tree on the team. Mack Hollins is effectively dust at this point, Diggs is clearly being eased back while coming off the lost season due to an ACL injury (41% snap rate), and DeMario Douglas is a slot-only receiver. Henry actually led the team in snap rate (93%) but trailed Boutte in route participation (74%). If I’m targeting a pass-catcher on the Patriots (I think we should be considering it this week), that player is Boutte.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY HILOW >>

• 49ers QB Brock Purdy is reportedly out for 3-5 weeks with a toe issue.
• 49ers placed TE George Kittle on IR. He will miss the next four games, at minimum.
• 49ers WR Jauan Jennings did not practice Wednesday with a shoulder injury sustained in the team’s Week 1 win over the Seahawks.
• The 49ers also shook things up at kicker, releasing Jake Moody and signing Eddy Pineiro. 
• For those keeping track at home, that could leave Ricky Pearsall and Christian McCaffrey as the only remaining healthy starters on this offense, likely to be joined by third-year TE Jake Tonges, journeyman Marquez Valdes-Scantling, veteran Kendrick Bourne, and perennial offseason hype man Skyy Moore as a supporting cast.
• Predictably, the Saints led the league in pace of play in Week 1.
• The 49ers ran 76 offensive plays in Week 1 against a Seahawks opponent that ranked second in pace of play at 26.4 seconds per play. Their opponent in Week 2, the Saints, ranked first in pace of play at a blazing 22.8 seconds per play. Yea, there should be play volume here.
• Chris Olave (13), Juwan Johnson (11), and Rashid Shaheed (nine) combined to account for 71.7% of the team’s targets in Week 1. Now that is concentration, y’all.

HOW san francisco WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The 49ers are going to be without Purdy, Kittle, and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk for Week 2, and they could also be without Jennings, the latter of whom suffered a shoulder injury in Week 1 after missing most of camp and preseason with a calf injury/contract dispute. I think it’s fair to expect the vast majority of volume to be concentrated on McCaffrey and Pearsall, with the obvious caveat being that said volume will be delivered/run by backup quarterback Mac Jones. Considering the state of this roster, the renewed vigor of their defense with the return of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, and their opponent, I think it’s fair to also expect a more muted offensive game plan likely aimed at long, sustained drives to milk the clock, with an emphasis on what McCaffrey brings to the table. That isn’t to say it’s all doom and gloom here, just that we should expect the 49ers to take a more methodical approach to their overall game plan considering their situation.

That situation should continue to lead to borderline extreme volume and usage for McCaffrey after the veteran back saw 22 carries and 10 targets against the Seahawks. This game environment sets up similarly to the one they played in a week ago, meaning McCaffrey has a clear path to 25-30 opportunities (or more) again. And it wouldn’t take much to improve on his “good, not great” fantasy returns from Week 1. For all the things the Saints did well in Week 1, they were still extremely vulnerable on the ground. They ceded a robust 2.36 yards before contact per attempt (fifth worst) to the Cardinals, while the 49ers blocked to an eye-opening 2.18 yards before contact against a stingy Seahawks team (eighth). This is a solid spot on paper for McCaffrey. Newcomer Brian Robinson is likely to serve as the preferred change-of-pace option after seeing a 24% snap rate following his trade to San Francisco prior to Week 1. Isaac Guerendo was active but failed to see an offensive snap while contributing to special teams.

The 49ers were a perfectly balanced offense in Week 1 (as all things should be), attempting 35 passes to 36 rush attempts with a -3.9% pass rate over expectation (PROE) (28^th). I would expect that to tilt slightly in the favor of increased rushing if the 49ers are able to control the game environment, but there really isn’t too much additional room for that to swing too far considering the uptick in play volume we expect here. I would confidently pencil in Jones for 32 pass attempts as a floor, meaning that volume has to go somewhere. 

I expect McCaffrey to once again be heavily involved through the air after leading the team with 10 targets in Week 1, and I expect Pearsall to be the primary wide receiver. I would not be shocked if the two combined to see 20+ targets in this spot (you’re starting to catch my drift, I think, but more on this in the DFS+ section). The remainder of the pass-game volume is anyone’s guess, likely to be dispersed amongst the remaining pass catchers. It is notable that the team elevated Russell Gage from the practice squad for Week 1 and he went on to rank third on the team, amongst wide receivers, in snap rate at 37%. I expect another standard elevation for Gage.

HOW NEW ORLEANS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

•  Super Josh doesn’t always come out to play, but, man, when he does… look out.
• That said, this does not appear to be a game where Super Josh will be needed.
• The Jets predictably led the league in rush rate over expectation in Week 1 against the Steelers (-17.8% PROE), with 39 combined carries versus just 22 pass attempts.
• Also predictably, Garrett Wilson saw nine targets on those 22 pass attempts, good for a tidy 40.9% target share.
• Somewhat unpredictably, Breece Hall saw 19 carries and four targets on 58% of the offensive snaps.
• The Bills ran 85 (!!!) offensive plays in Week 1, something they are unlikely to repeat for the remainder of the season.
• Likeliest scenario leaves this game with a muted game environment in which each team approaches their offense with a methodical approach, aiming to win a battle of attrition while minimizing mistakes on offense and forcing their opponent into sustained drives, where their respective defenses look to generate disruption.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

The current state of the Bills would prefer to win by forcing opponents to march the field while taking a more methodical approach to their own offense, with the ace in the hole being Super Josh. He typically isn’t asked to come out unless the team finds itself in dire need, which is exactly what we saw in Week 1 (and saw a few times last season). However, their normal game plan involves a more measured approach to their offense, while their defense forces their opponents to string together drives, during which they look to generate mistakes through their athleticism. That shouldn’t change against a Jets team already looking to take a methodical approach to their own offense, via elevated rush rates and sustained drives. To put the state of this roster into perspective, the Bills ran 85 offensive plays against the Ravens, Josh Allen attempted 46 passes, three players saw nine or more targets, and it took a career game from Keon Coleman to return a usable fantasy score (8-112-1). Furthermore, 10 different players received a target.

James Cook continued his role from 2024 into the first game of 2025, playing 56% of the offensive snaps while seeing 13 carries and five targets. For perspective, Cook saw 18 or more opportunities only four times in 2024, relying on a gaudy touchdown rate to prop up his fantasy value. Cook went over 20 DK points five times a season ago and was tournament viable just three times. All of that to say, we know what we’re getting with Cook. He requires extreme efficiency and elevated touchdown variance working in his favor to return GPP viability. Ty Johnson saw an increased snap rate due to game script in Week 1, with the breakdown of work behind Cook likely to be split between Johnson and Davis, depending on game environment. Neither carries weekly fantasy viability in the current state of this team.

Coleman’s 28.2 DK points in Week 1 were the first time since 2023 Stefon Diggs in which a Buffalo pass-catcher finished in the top three at their respective position on a given week. That’s borderline absurd. I’m sure the field is not overreacting to that performance, or calling it Coleman’s breakout game. It is highly unlikely that happen again this season based on how this offense typically operates. As we touched on above, 10 (!!!) different pass-catchers received a target in Week 1, and all skill position players to see an offensive snap, except Tyrell Shavers and fullback Reggie Gilliam, drew a target. This offense is just extremely spread out, by design. As such, I don’t see merit to chasing GPP upside on a team with such a small hit rate of individual production. Could I be wrong, and Coleman is now an alpha? Unlikely, but sure.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• Seattle looks to rebound from their season opening loss to the 49ers by traveling cross country to face a Steelers team coming off an exciting comeback victory.
• Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a massive 57% target share in the first game for new quarterback Sam Darnold.
• Aaron Rodgers had an incredible debut with the Steelers, throwing four touchdown passes and leading a 4th quarter comeback.
• Pittsburgh’s defense should look more like itself in this matchup with a pocket passer than they did last week dealing with a dynamic dual threat athlete in Justin Fields.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

In the Seattle debut of offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, the Seahawks operated an incredibly run-heavy offense, ranking 31st in the NFL in pass rate over expectation. That being said, their pace was blistering at only 26.4 seconds per snap, which was the second fastest in the league. A tough 49ers defense held them to only 4.6 yards per play. For comparison, the Bears were last in the league in 2024 at 4.5 yards per play. 

The ground game for the Seahawks was a relatively even split between Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III, with both of them playing in multiple situations. This was more of a rotational basis than a situation where they each have specific roles. Both have the skill sets to play in all situations, but it appears Seattle intends to use both of them equally for as long as they can. The problem here is the Seahawks offensive line is sub-par and unlikely to create many openings simply from winning their matchups and Seattle’s hope was that Kubiak’s scheme would help mask some of those deficiencies. At least for the first week, that was not the case. The issue for Seattle in Week 2 is that they are facing a Steelers defense that is expected to be very strong this season and is sure to be on its game for their home opener after being embarrassed by the Jets in Week 1.

Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a massive 57% target share in the first game for new quarterback Sam Darnold. JSN dominated the receiving work, and Seattle played “11” personnel (three wide receivers) on over 70% of their snaps. Kubiak was brought to Seattle to give the Seahawks more dynamic formations and creative play calling, using his scheme to create openings and get their top players in space. After the first game, it appears that JSN will be among the league leaders in targets. Veteran Cooper Kupp actually led the team’s receivers in snaps, but was targeted only three times, catching two passes for 15 yards. Kupp’s skill set matches JSN’s as two route technicians with sure hands who can be lined up all over the formation. Both profiles as receivers whose bread is buttered from the slot and operate on an interchangeable basis.

We can’t draw many conclusions from the Steelers defense after one week due to the fact that they played the Jets and dual threat quarterback Justin Fields brought such a unique threat to the field which changes how Pittsburgh plays. The Steelers may have already had the worst defensive performance we will see from them in 2025. Darnold is a relatively stationary pocket passer who will allow Pittsburgh to unleash their traditionally aggressive defense in Week 2. The Steelers have historically been most susceptible in the middle of the field to slot receivers and tight ends, so there is a strong chance that JSN and Kupp have very busy days. We should not expect the Seahawks to give up on their run-heavy approach after one week, but we also shouldn’t expect them to have much success in this matchup. Kubiak is a sharp coach whose primary adjustment in Week 2 is likely to be a focus on early down passing to get ahead of the sticks. Rather than running heavily to set up play action, Seattle will have to flip the script and throw early to give themselves advantageous situations where the defense is on its heels and they can run.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy >>

• CB Denzel Ward was limited early in the week with a Shoulder/Achilles for the Browns
• CB Jaire Alexander was limited with a knee early in the week for the Ravens
• The Ravens are double-digit home favorites in a game they are expected to control
• Joe Flacco threw the ball 45 times in Week 1, and it’s likely he’ll throw over 40 times again in this one.
• All the Browns pass catchers are undervalued relative to their projected target volume.
• Harold Fannin is priced like a free square and was used all over the formation in Week 1, with many schemed looks going his way
• Dylan Sampson played under 50% of the snaps but was heavily used, especially in the passing game.
• Lamar Jackson only threw 19 times and still managed to hang 40 points on the Bills
• Derrick Henry never gives you much in the passing game, but he’s a favorite to break the slate in positive game scripts.
• Zay Flowers stood out as the Ravens clear top pass catcher
• Mark Andrews wasn’t used often in Week 1, but he was on the field a lot, and should be a factor in the rezone

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The 0-1 Browns come into Week 2 off a close home loss to the Bengals in the battle of Ohio. Closing as the highest total of the week, the Brown’s Week 1 matchup failed to live up to fantasy expectations. Despite the lackluster final score, the Browns dropped back 45 times, and it wasn’t because they were chasing points. The game was close, and the Browns boasted the 2nd highest situational neutral pass rate of the week. The Browns wanted to throw. It’s rare (like once-a-year rare) for an NFL team to have two TEs run 30 routes in the same game. We almost saw that from the Brown with David Njoku running 38 routes and Harold Fannin running 29 routes. Fannin was hard to project at the NFL level because he was a tweener TE. Kevin Stefanski seems to have figured out the best way to use him is in a variety of roles, keeping defense off balance with consistent two-TE personnel. He used Fannin as a “joker” giving him three snaps at full back, 29 inline snaps, 16 snaps out of the slot, and even one as a wildcat QB. Tweener indeed. A pass-first style makes sense for the Brown’s RB room as well, since Dylan Sampson is better in the passing game, and the Browns don’t seem to think much of Jerome Ford. Given their offensive limitations, Stefanski wasn’t keen on adding play volume. In a game that was close throughout, the Browns were 20th in seconds per play, which is likely the pace they’ll choose when not forced to speed up by game script.

The Browns O-line is a major issue. They rank near the bottom of the league (29th by PFF) and moved down two spots in those rankings after a poor performance in Week 1. They allowed a league-high 20 pressures on 48 drop-backs. That was good for the 31st-ranked pass blocking efficiency metric of the week. Keep in mind that it came against the Bengals highly suspect defense. RT Jack Conklin left the game and did not return after being poked in the eye, but it looks like he should be ok for Week 2. Stefanski doesn’t trust his running game and would rather let Joe Flacco chuck it around the yard. Expect the Browns to continue heavily using two TE packages, while also throwing at one of the highest rates in the league.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• These were the two highest scoring fantasy defenses of the opening week, but much of that had to do with the opponents they faced.
• Daniel Jones appears on the path to a career resurgence and is giving utility to the skill players on the Colts offense.
• Colts TE Tyler Warren’s role was elite in his NFL debut, while WR Josh Downs was relegated to a “slot only” role in three wide receiver sets.
• The Denver backfield was a somewhat messy three man rotation, with J.K. Dobbins and rookie RJ Harvey both having strong games behind the Broncos elite offensive line.
• Broncos QB Bo Nix struggled in his sophomore season debut, averaging only 4.4 yards per pass attempt and turning the ball over three times.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

The Broncos, rightfully, have Super Bowl aspirations this season as they seemingly have the pieces to be a contender. They have a young and dynamic quarterback, improved weapons in the receiving and running game, an elite offensive line, and possibly the top defense in the league. Expectations are high, but in Week 1 their performance was disappointing in many areas despite their eventual victory. Denver turned the ball over four times, struggled to sustain drives or create explosive plays, and had some special teams lapses that allowed the Titans to hang around. We must remember that Week 1 is where many teams shake the rust off; however, and the Titans defense is far better than most people realize. Time to move along and focus on Week 2.

On the surface, this is a matchup of a team that had the most turnovers in the league in Week 1 and a defense that forced the second most turnovers in the league to start the season. However, the Colts defense teed off on a predictable Dolphins offense who has one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Miami was unable to generate a consistent running game and fell behind early, which exaggerated the problem. Denver should be able to have success on the ground, which will open up their passing game and set up more manageable down and distance situations. While the turnovers may be concerning, we also know that they are highly variant and it seems unlikely that the Colts will continue forcing them at such a high rate or the Broncos will keep making those crippling mistakes. The early down success of Denver is critical to their success and they should be much better in that area in this matchup. 

Despite hope for a more condensed offense, the Broncos continued to have positional rotations in place in Week 1. Three different running backs played at least 18% of the offensive snaps, with veteran J.K. Dobbins leading the way in snaps and touches. Rookie RJ Harvey looked great and had a 50-yard run in the second half, but Tyler Badie was also in the mix which limits the ceiling of the other two. Three different tight ends played at least 28% of the team’s snaps, while Courtland Sutton played basically every snap and three other wide receivers (Marvin Mims, Troy Franklin, and Trent Sherfield) all played between 34% and 60% of the team’s snaps. Just a messy situation and hard to trust anyone.

All of the frustrating personnel usage aside, the Broncos offense is positioned to have a strong bounce back in Week 2. Improved early down efficiency against a softer rushing defense should in turn lead to more sustained drives, fewer turnovers, and more explosive plays. The Broncos are likely to have an emphasis on their running backs early in this game and may also look to lean on schemed plays to Mims and Franklin. Sutton is the constant in this offense and is likely to see his usual strong usage rate, but head coach Sean Payton often likes to ease him into games and get the defense’s attention focused elsewhere before allowing Nix to lock onto him.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• Panthers fans are having PTSD flashbacks after their team’s offense looked woefully inept in their season opening loss to the Jaguars.
• Arizona’s defense played well in Week 1 and profiles as a unit whose scheme may naturally be a problem for the Panthers.
• The Cardinals offense continues to be relatively concentrated and Marvin Harrison Jr. appears to be ready for a breakout sophomore season.
• The Panthers offense is in desperate need of a middle of the field option who can help them sustain drives.
• Arizona has shown under offensive coordinator Drew Petzing that they will lean heavily on the run when the matchup and game script allows, which this one very well may.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

Bryce Young needs a reliable slot receiver or tight end. Now. Seriously, though, Young looked completely out of sorts in Week 1 against a Jaguars defense who we should have expected to take a step forward in 2025, but dominated them to start the season. Just the way Young profiles, those short area targets in the middle of the field are so valuable for moving the chains and/or setting up shorter and manageable third downs. Last season we saw him rely on veteran Adam Thielen and rookie Jalen Coker at various times once he got the starting job back and finished the 2024 season very strong. This summer, Coker was entering his second season and was, by all accounts, one of the stars of Panthers training camp. As a result, Carolina traded Thielen to the Vikings less than two weeks prior to the start of the season and Coker appeared destined to operate in that critical high volume role. Unfortunately, Coker suffered a quad injury shortly thereafter and is out through at least Week 4. Since Thielen was already gone, this left the team to re-sign previously semi-retired veteran Hunter Renfrow. It didn’t work out well in Week 1, as Young barely completed half of his passes and the offense was stagnant and behind the chains all game. 

We started by discussing that dynamic, because that problem could be exaggerated in Week 2. The Arizona defense is by nature conservative, ranking in the top-10 in zone coverage rate and bottom-10 in blitz rate each of the last two seasons and showing similar tendencies in Week 1. Their perimeter corners, and especially rookie Will Johnson, are legitimate and the Arizona scheme and personnel are very good at taking away passes to the sidelines and downfield. Their low blitz rate also means they usually have extra defenders in coverage which keeps them from having big holes in the middle of the field. There are still holes, and the low blitz rate often allows them to be exploited by savvy receivers in the middle of the field on in-breaking routes or sitting down in open areas. The Panthers are missing the type of player (Thielen or Coker) who would thrive in this matchup. 

So the question becomes how will the Panthers approach this game and/or try to fix their issues? The first step is trying to get their running game going. Jacksonville was one of only two teams in the league to not have a “stacked box” defensively at any point in Week 1, which is a huge indictment on Carolina and is the second thing that explains why they looked so terrible. The Panthers running backs averaged less than four yards per carry for the game despite having light boxes and a game script that should have given them some easy yards. Carolina’s offensive issues play right into the hands of the Cardinals, as they seem unlikely to punish them on the ground for their conservative schemes and lacking the personnel to expose their coverage schemes.

In this writer’s opinion, the answer to Carolina’s problems would be to move rookie wide receiver Tet McMillan around the formation, and more specifically, to have him in motion and/or the slot as often as possible. McMillan is a big-bodied receiver, but played in the slot on roughly 25% of his snaps in college. He has the ability to do it, and the team needs to find a way to get the ball to their playmakers. The Carolina approach in Week 1 looked more like they were just hoping something good would happen, rather than actively creating and scheming their best players into good situations. The team needs to make McMillan the center of their game plan, which would then likely help open up some running lanes. Additionally, second year wide receiver Xavier Legette is not technically savvy but does have strong physical traits that make him a menace with the ball in his hands. Some early schemed touches could help get them going.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• A Super Bowl rematch already in Week 2, the NFL schedule makers really were in their bag this year.
• Kansas City’s receiving corps has been decimated by injuries and suspensions, while their backfield is a bit of a mess as well leaving Patrick Mahomes to play “Superman” to keep the Chiefs afloat.
• Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has not started a season 0-2 since 2014, which was also the last time the Chiefs missed the playoffs.
• Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday this week, leaving his status in doubt.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The approach for the Eagles is very straightforward and has not changed since last season. They are going to run the ball at their opponents and break them down physically and mentally with their All-Pro backfield of QB Jalen Hurts and RB Saquon Barkley. The last two Eagles games were their dominant Super Bowl victory over the Chiefs and their close win over the Cowboys in Week 1. In those two games, Barkley and Hurts combined for a 66% and 63% utilization rate, respectively. Second year running back Will Shipley sustained an oblique injury in the season opener and has not practiced yet this week, which led to the team trading for Tank Bigsby from the Jaguars early this week. Considering how new Bigsby is to the team and how inept AJ Dillon looks at this point in his career, we can expect this massive utilization of Hurts and Barkley to continue. Simply put – if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

The matchup for this week does shed some promise for the Eagles passing game which was put on the back burner in Week 1. The Eagles always have a low pass rate, but game context usually drives how aggressive those passes are, as well as how efficient and successful they are likely to be. The Cowboys blitzed on only 18% of their defensive snaps in Week 1 (bottom-10 in the league) and played the sixth highest rate of zone coverage across the NFL at 82%, per PFF. The nature of their zones was very conservative as well, with them playing very soft and keeping everything in front of them – basically eliminating anything down the field. Due to this conservative approach and Dallas dropping so many players into coverage, Hurts simply played dink and dunk ball, with all of his 23 pass attempts being within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He was highly accurate and efficient, completing 19 passes, and his four incompletions consisted of three passes he threw away on scrambles and one drop.

The Chiefs defense was true to form in Week 1, blitzing at the fourth highest rate in the league and playing a high rate of man coverage. This is what we have seen from them consistently over the last few years. It is only Week 2, and while we can hypothesize about a change in philosophy for this game/matchup, the reality is that Kansas City is unlikely to drastically change its approach this early in the season as they try to work out the kinks. This defensive style significantly increases the likelihood of the Eagles downfield passing game opening up in Week 2. It also opens the door for Jalen Hurts to make some big plays with his legs as Kansas City’s man coverage will leave open running lanes when quarterbacks break contain, as evidenced last week when Justin Herbert sealed the game on a late scramble. The Eagles are likely to be without veteran tight end Dallas Goedert, who has not practiced yet this week. His absence will likely funnel targets to Eagles wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. While the Chiefs have historically been very good against wide receivers, tending to funnel receiving production to opposing tight ends and running backs, they were dusted up by the Chargers in Week 1 and appear to have vulnerabilities in the secondary after multiple key players were lost this offseason.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the Falcons traveling to Minnesota to take on the Vikings in a 44.5 total game with the Vikings favored by 3.5. The Vikings offense looked absolutely lost to start their Week 1 tilt against the Bears before J.J. McCarthy found some level of comfort and led his team to a nice comeback win, while the Falcons lost at home to the Bucs in a game that was close throughout. 

MINNESOTA

We’ll start with Minnesota’s backfield, where I was wrong about the workload distribution, at least in Week 1. I thought Aaron Jones would be the lead back and he actually played two fewer snaps than Jordan Mason, handling 11 touches (8 carries, 3 targets) while Mason had 16 touches (15 carries, 1 target). Minnesota even trailed for much of the game, which is where I would have expected Jones, who is an excellent pass catcher, to have thrived. So, this backfield is now murkier than I thought at first. It looks like more of a 50/50-ish split, but we don’t know if what we saw was something opponent-specific for Week 1 or due to game script or something else – there’s still time for the backfield to surprise us. I’m treating it as if it could go 60-40 either way in any given game, and if that is what happens, whichever back gets the 60 side looks underpriced. I’d lean a bit towards Mason here as the Vikings are home favorites and Mason is younger, thus potentially more likely to earn additional 2nd-half work if Minnesota is playing from ahead. He’s also $1k cheaper, which certainly doesn’t hurt. Both backs are in play, though. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, we saw the heavy snap counts of the main guys that we were looking for with Minnesota, as Justin Jefferson played 98% of the snaps, Jalen Nailor 88%, and T.J. Hockenson 80% (it just didn’t work out for Hock production-wise, sadly for me). Week 1 was odd in that even though the Vikings were playing from behind almost all game, McCarthy only attempted 20 passes. Of those 20 passes, 7 went to Jefferson, 4 to Hock, 3 to Nailor, 3 to Jones, and then 1 each to Mason, Adam Thielen, and TE2 Josh Oliver. The Vikings just didn’t run that many offensive plays, as they had a lot of extremely quick failed drives before finding their groove late. Jefferson’s market share of targets was elite, and worth noting as rookie QBs often lock on to their primary read/top receiver. If Jefferson gets 35% of McCarthy’s targets and we see the pass attempts at what we’d consider normal levels, he’s going to be in for a big year. He makes for an outstanding play.

As with last week, I think Hock is in for a big season if McCarthy is competent as the Vikings are short on talented pass catchers while Jordan Addison is suspended. $6,200 feels very fair for Hock. Nailor at $4,000 for a WR2 who plays almost every snap feels on the cheap side, though I’m a bit worried that as Adam Thielen has more time with the team, he might suck some of Nailor’s workload away. Thielen himself and Oliver are the other guys you can consider as more than just pure punt options but they’re tough sells for me. I’ll have a smidge of each, more so Oliver than Thielen (he’s cheaper and thus just a catch can pay off if he happens to find the end zone, while Thielen is likely to need to at least crack 10 points at his price to find his way into optimal lineups). You can play dart throw options like Tim Jones or Ben Yurosek, who each saw a handful of snaps, but I probably won’t, as this offense is highly concentrated and they don’t tend to mess around much with tertiary options.

ATLANTA

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

We get two Monday Showdowns! The first has the Bucs visiting the Texans for a 42.5 total game with Houston favored by 2.5. The Texans are coming off a disappointing Week 1 that saw them score just 9 points against the Rams. To be fair, that’s one of the better defenses in the league, but still…yikes. Hopefully, coming back home will help them, but let’s also remember that Houston’s offense largely struggled last season after coming in with sky-high expectations following C.J. Stroud’s rookie season. The Bucs handled business against Atlanta, but it wasn’t all that pretty as Baker Mayfield completed just 53% of his passes for 5.2 yards per attempt while Bucky Irving only managed 2.6 yards per carry on the ground. Basically, both of these teams underperformed on offense in Week 1 (even though the Bucs escaped with a win), and they’ll both be looking to get things going in this one. 

houston

We’ll start with the Texans and their run game. They brought in Nick Chubb, and he played 51% of the snaps in his first game with his new team, handling 13 carries and 1 target. He ran reasonably well with his new team, but as a 2-down back with little passing game involvement, this is going to be a tough spot against a Bucs D that just bottled up Bijan Robinson on the ground and limited him to 2 yards per carry. Chubb also handled just 50% of the team’s overall rushing attempts (including Stroud’s) as they handed the ball off to three (seriously) different backs behind him and even gave a carry to wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson. In a difficult matchup and with this kind of backfield split, it’s hard to get very excited about Chubb, but RB1s always belong in Showdown player pools. I’ll play some, but I’m not thrilled about it. Dare Ogunbowale plays the passing down role while Woody Marks and Dameon Pierce each handled 3 carries last week (weird). Ogunbowale is the most playable of the backup RB’s given that he has a respectable receiving role, while the other guys are “hope for a touchdown or a Chubb injury” plays. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Stroud just threw for 7 yards per attempt against the Rams, passing for 0 touchdowns while throwing a pick and taking three sacks. Playing behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines and going up against one of the most blitz-happy teams in football, he’s going to be running around in this one. A lot. Last year, Stroud struggled immensely when dealing with pressure and the O-line meant he was pressured basically all game. We’ll have to see if they’ve figured anything out this year – one game is too early to make any determinations there. The Texans have apparently decided to play the deepest offensive roster in the NFL, as in addition to four running backs, ten different players saw at least 1 target last week, and that’s on just 27 pass attempts. WR1 superstar Nico Collins bafflingly only saw 5 targets. This is not a realistic way to run an NFL offense – you can’t spread the ball around this much and not get it to your best players – and hopefully that was all just a one-game aberration. The Texans are awfully thin on talent behind Nico, and so I expect that we’ll see his target share increase and he’ll be in for some big games. I really, really wish his Week 1 dud had done something to impact his price because it’s odd seeing him as the most expensive play in the game, but we know his ceiling is immense – he’s a clear overweight position to me given that there are a lot of other expensive plays on this slate, and that plus the Week 1 dud could keep his ownership a bit in check. Anything under 40% or so is a gift. Behind Nico, in order of snap counts, were Xavier Hutchinson, Justin Watson, exciting rookie Jayden Higgins, and Jaylin Noel. Higgins actually led the team in receiving yards (with 32, lol), and we should expect to see his role grow as the season goes on, while all of those other names are just guys. They’re on the field, they could catch a touchdown and potentially pay off, but you’re just playing roulette with any of them. Higgins is the most talented of the other wide receivers, but he’s also $6,400 and only played 43% of the snaps last week; he has ceiling, but that’s a tough sell for me. I’d rather pay $1k for Watson or even $2.8k for Hutchinson.

At tight end, we have a bit of an odd situation. Dalton Schultz, who is a capable pass catcher, apparently lost the start to former 4th round pick (and not very good player) Cade Stover. They played roughly 50/50 and together saw 9 targets on 27 Stroud dropbacks. Stover, however, suffered a broken foot near the end of the game and is now on IR, which leaves Houston with Schultz and then Harrison Bryant (most likely) at tight end. I don’t know why they started Stover over Schultz, but I have to imagine Schultz is going to go up to a 65-70% snap count role at the least. At just $4,400, he’s underpriced for his talent and likely role and is one of my favorite options on the slate, while Bryant would be a viable punt at minimum salary (and it’s possible people might ignore him – maybe for whatever reason Houston has soured on Schultz, so maybe Bryant plays more than expected?). 

TAMPA BAY

The Deuce, Week 2

Strategy Ideas for Monday’s 2-game Slate:

Overview::

It is important to understand the big picture of these teams both in terms of their inner workings and their perceptions entering this week::

• Buccaneers – The Bucs will once again be without WR Chris Godwin and LT Tristan Wirfs for this game. In the season opener, Tampa Bay struggled to sustain drives and had limited play volume (56 offensive snaps compared to 63 per game in 2024), but we could clearly see a condensed offense. Running back Bucky Irving dominated the rushing usage while he combined with WRs Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka, and Sterling Shepard for 24 of the team’s 29 targets. This week the Bucs face a Houston defense that was elite in 2024 and started the year strong against the Rams. The Texans run defense is very good and the Bucs struggled to get anything going on the ground in Week 1 without Wirfs, so this profiles as a game where Mayfield could throw the ball 40+ times.
• Texans – The Houston offensive line was remade in the offseason and the early returns are not great. Their rushing numbers looked OK in Week 1 (4.2 yards per carry), but only one of 22 attempts went for 10+ yards and many of the yards were “empty” yards that the Rams were conceding situationally. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud was under constant pressure and evading the pass rush all game. The team’s three scoring drives (all first half FG’s) were unimpressive – one took 13 plays to go 62 yards, one started in Rams territory, and one was aided by a Rams penalty and multiple scrambles by Stroud. Houston will look to bounce back by creating more chunk plays and having shorter third down situations after going 2/9 against the Rams.
• Chargers – The Chargers put a stamp on the 2025 season by handily beating the Chiefs in Brazil and the real story was that they led the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation in Week 1. Similar to the Bucs, this team has a condensed offense with three WRs (Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Keenan Allen) and a running back (Omarion Hampton) dominating their usage. That quartet combined for 28 of the team’s 34 targets in Week 1, while Hampton played 80% of the offensive snaps in his debut. Dollar for dollar, Hampton is probably the best role to salary value on the slate. Quarterback Justin Herbert played one of the best games of his career and looks like he is ready to have a huge year. The Raiders defense looked good in Week 1, but the Patriots lack the offensive firepower the Chargers have so this will be a telling matchup for both units.
• Raiders – Star tight end Brock Bowers missed the end of last week’s win over New England, but is reportedly on track to play. Bowers and WR Jakobi Meyers are target hogs in this offense, combining for a 60% target share in Week 1 despite Bowers missing a large chunk of the game. Secondary receiving options WR Tre Tucker, WR Dont’e Thornton, and TE Michael Mayer are all interesting on a smaller slate. The Raiders had a whopping nine pass plays of 20+ yards in Week 1 against the Patriots, but that performance seems less impressive after watching New England give up 300+ passing yards to the hapless Dolphins on Sunday.

QB Thoughts::

• Justin Herbert and Baker Mayfield are very clearly the top QB options on the slate over Geno and Stroud. Both have better supporting casts and better defenses on paper, but as we saw on Sunday’s “Afternoon Only” slate sometimes games go a different direction and QBs can fluctuate. Bryce Young led that afternoon slate thanks to the Panthers falling so far behind early and Young racking up massive volume, while Daniel Jones threw for over 300 yards and had a rushing and passing touchdown. Those two were the top QBs on that slate despite being the cheapest and lowest owned. This slate certainly feels different with Mayfield and Herbert seeming like strong bets in their situations and salary not being too restrictive, but I just mention this as a reminder to have an open mind when constructing rosters for these slates.

My guess on final ownership::

• Justin Herbert ~40%
• Baker Mayfield ~25%
• Geno Smith ~25%
• C.J. Stroud ~10%

Strategy and Game Theory::

• Overstacking is also very much in play on this slate, as a two game slate can be so wildly variant that if one of the games takes off (or one of them is a complete flop), the other one can really carry you. Most people will have about 4 or 5 players from one game and 3 or 4 from the other, as “balancing” the roster feels most comfortable. Also, the more common build tends to be choosing a defense from the game you have fewer skill players from. These are tendencies of the field that we can lean into with roster construction to gain an edge.
• The Chargers defense did a great job forcing things underneath against the Chiefs and the Raiders play two tight ends at a very high rate. In theory, this could lead to fewer opportunities (or just less successful opportunities) for secondary receivers Tre Tucker and Dont’e Thornton. Both Raiders tight ends, Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer, could be played together to create a unique roster construction. The way to look at it is you are removing Bowers from the tight end pool and betting on Mayer outscoring Dalton Schultz, Cade Otton, and the Chargers tight ends (not a huge ask)…..then looking at Bowers as a “Flex” player and betting on him being one of the higher raw scores on the slate (also not a huge ask). This construction in and of itself will be somewhat rare as it just feels so weird to play two TEs from the same team, but you can make it even more unique by doing this on rosters that DO NOT have Geno Smith at QB.
• Another unique roster construction would be three Tampa Bay WR/TE on the same roster without Mayfield. Mayfield’s salary is far higher than the other QBs and as discussed earlier this could be a high volume passing game but that doesn’t guarantee 300 passing yards or where the TDs will come from. With Geno coming off a solid game and being so cheap, while Justin Herbert has ability to add a lot of yards on the ground, this was something that stood out to me as having value on such a small slate. It isn’t hard to see one of Evans/Egbuka going over 100 yards without a touchdown, while the other one had more modest reception/yardage totals but catches a touchdown….and then either Sterling Shepard catching 5 or 6 balls at a salary of only $3,100 after being targeted 6 times in Week or Cade Otton catching a touchdown pass. Like I said, it sounds kind of crazy but the “story” for how that plays out as optimal on a slate like this really isn’t that hard to imagine.
• The Studs – As is always the case on these slates, someone among the “Studs” are likely to have the highest raw scores which makes selecting among them critical, and likely necessary to winning. There are seven players with salaries over $6,000 on this slate – one QB, two RBs, three WRs, and one TE. The reality is that when building a roster MOST rosters are going to have three players from this group as that is what looks the best and feels most comfortable. Finding a way to get four (or even five) of these “Studs” on your roster will naturally make your build more unique while also forcing you to take on some uncomfortable plays at other positions. On the flip side, if you only roster two of these players you almost certainly will have salary left over and few people will be able to resist the urge to spend that extra salary to add another perceived “stud”. I much prefer the former route, with four or five studs rather than just two, but as we try to find paths to first place not just having three will in and of itself have value.

Positional Rankings::

(My favorite plays on the slate at each position when considering all elements, including salary/ownership)

RB::

1. Omarion Hampton
2. Bucky Irving
3. Ashton Jeanty
4. Nick Chubb
5. Rachaad White

WR::

1. Emeka Egbuka
2. Nico Collins
3. Mike Evans
4. Ladd McConkey
5. Jakobi Meyers
6. Quentin Johnston
7. Keenan Allen
8. Sterling Shepard
9. Tre Tucker

TE::

1. Brock Bowers
2. Cade Otton
3. Michael Mayer
4. Dalton Schultz

SHORT SLATE-ONLY OPTIONS::

• Here are a few cheaper options that I’ll be considering on this slate that can help you make a unique lineup, but you wouldn’t be playing on the Main Slate::
  • Dont’e Thornton
  • Woody Marks
  • Jayden Higgins
  • Xavier Hutchinson
  • Tyler Conklin
  • Najee Harris

Good luck and see you in the lobby at 7:00 pm ET Monday!!

-Mike (MJohnson86)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 2 closes out with the Chargers visiting the Raiders. This game has a healthy 46.5 total with Los Angeles favored by 3.5. After taking care of the Chiefs rather handily in Week 1, the Chargers have to be riding high a bit – they led basically the entire game and took care of business against one of the league’s tougher defenses with Justin Herbert averaging 9.4 yards per dropback. The Raiders are probably equally happy, having also won in Week 1, but the Patriots just aren’t the same kind of competition. 

LOS ANGELES

On the Chargers side, rookie Omarion Hampton played 80% of the snaps and handled 15 of 16 running back carries while adding a couple of targets. RB2 Najee Harris missed a lot of training camp with an eye injury he suffered due to a fireworks accident (seriously, why do we let NFL players anywhere near fireworks?!) and barely played in Week 1. I’d guess Najee’s role grows in Week 2, but this is Hampton’s backfield. He’s not a home favorite, but he checks the other boxes: he’s good, he should have a solid workload, his team is the favorite with a high total…things line up well here for Hampton. He’s also just $7,800, somewhat perplexingly – that’s a great value. Gimme. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Chargers went with a pass heavy game plan in Week 1, and it paid off for them. They were, in fact, the team with the highest pass rate over expectation in the NFL. Will that continue? Who knows, but they have one of the league’s best pure passers at quarterback, their strategy just worked great in Week 1, they have a solid receiving corps…why change? Of note: out of 34 Herbert pass attempts, a whopping 26 went to the three primary wide receivers. That’s some impressive target concentration. Those wide receivers are Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Quentin Johnston. Ladd’s the WR1 here but sadly did not score in Week 1 – he’s still the favorite in any given week to lead the team in targets, catches, and yards. However, adding Allen back to the mix has dinged his slot snap rate a bit as that’s also where Allen has primarily played in his career, and now they have to share it. That could potentially cost Ladd a short, easy catch or two per game, but he’s still a solid play. I just wish he wasn’t $10.8k. Johnson is $7.4k, and Allen is just $6.4k. Allen led the team in targets in Week 1, but he also only played 62% of the offensive snaps, so I doubt that is going to continue. Given the tremendous concentration this offense showed us, all three are very much in play in a positive matchup. I’ll lean Ladd first, then Allen, then Johnson. Johnson’s still a solid play; he’s just a more volatile option than the other two, given the nature of his route tree. Tertiary WRs Keandre Lambert-Smith, Derius Davis, and rookie Tre’ Harris barely played – they’re all dart throws but thin ones.

At tight end, Will Dissly and Tyler Conklin split the work, with Dissly seeing slightly more playing time but Conklin getting 2 targets to Dissly’s 1. I expect we’ll see the overall tight end target rate drift up from the ~9% they saw in Week 1, but as long as they’re splitting work roughly down the middle, they’re both pretty thin punt options. If forced to choose, I’d lean towards Dissly as he’s on the field more, but overall, I want to focus most of my Chargers exposure on the main guys. 

LAS VEGAS

The Deuce, Week 2

Strategy Ideas for Monday’s 2-game Slate:

Overview::

It is important to understand the big picture of these teams both in terms of their inner workings and their perceptions entering this week::

• Buccaneers – The Bucs will once again be without WR Chris Godwin and LT Tristan Wirfs for this game. In the season opener, Tampa Bay struggled to sustain drives and had limited play volume (56 offensive snaps compared to 63 per game in 2024), but we could clearly see a condensed offense. Running back Bucky Irving dominated the rushing usage while he combined with WRs Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka, and Sterling Shepard for 24 of the team’s 29 targets. This week the Bucs face a Houston defense that was elite in 2024 and started the year strong against the Rams. The Texans run defense is very good and the Bucs struggled to get anything going on the ground in Week 1 without Wirfs, so this profiles as a game where Mayfield could throw the ball 40+ times.
• Texans – The Houston offensive line was remade in the offseason and the early returns are not great. Their rushing numbers looked OK in Week 1 (4.2 yards per carry), but only one of 22 attempts went for 10+ yards and many of the yards were “empty” yards that the Rams were conceding situationally. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud was under constant pressure and evading the pass rush all game. The team’s three scoring drives (all first half FG’s) were unimpressive – one took 13 plays to go 62 yards, one started in Rams territory, and one was aided by a Rams penalty and multiple scrambles by Stroud. Houston will look to bounce back by creating more chunk plays and having shorter third down situations after going 2/9 against the Rams.
• Chargers – The Chargers put a stamp on the 2025 season by handily beating the Chiefs in Brazil and the real story was that they led the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation in Week 1. Similar to the Bucs, this team has a condensed offense with three WRs (Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Keenan Allen) and a running back (Omarion Hampton) dominating their usage. That quartet combined for 28 of the team’s 34 targets in Week 1, while Hampton played 80% of the offensive snaps in his debut. Dollar for dollar, Hampton is probably the best role to salary value on the slate. Quarterback Justin Herbert played one of the best games of his career and looks like he is ready to have a huge year. The Raiders defense looked good in Week 1, but the Patriots lack the offensive firepower the Chargers have so this will be a telling matchup for both units.
• Raiders – Star tight end Brock Bowers missed the end of last week’s win over New England, but is reportedly on track to play. Bowers and WR Jakobi Meyers are target hogs in this offense, combining for a 60% target share in Week 1 despite Bowers missing a large chunk of the game. Secondary receiving options WR Tre Tucker, WR Dont’e Thornton, and TE Michael Mayer are all interesting on a smaller slate. The Raiders had a whopping nine pass plays of 20+ yards in Week 1 against the Patriots, but that performance seems less impressive after watching New England give up 300+ passing yards to the hapless Dolphins on Sunday.

QB Thoughts::

• Justin Herbert and Baker Mayfield are very clearly the top QB options on the slate over Geno and Stroud. Both have better supporting casts and better defenses on paper, but as we saw on Sunday’s “Afternoon Only” slate sometimes games go a different direction and QBs can fluctuate. Bryce Young led that afternoon slate thanks to the Panthers falling so far behind early and Young racking up massive volume, while Daniel Jones threw for over 300 yards and had a rushing and passing touchdown. Those two were the top QBs on that slate despite being the cheapest and lowest owned. This slate certainly feels different with Mayfield and Herbert seeming like strong bets in their situations and salary not being too restrictive, but I just mention this as a reminder to have an open mind when constructing rosters for these slates.

My guess on final ownership::

• Justin Herbert ~40%
• Baker Mayfield ~25%
• Geno Smith ~25%
• C.J. Stroud ~10%

Strategy and Game Theory::

• Overstacking is also very much in play on this slate, as a two game slate can be so wildly variant that if one of the games takes off (or one of them is a complete flop), the other one can really carry you. Most people will have about 4 or 5 players from one game and 3 or 4 from the other, as “balancing” the roster feels most comfortable. Also, the more common build tends to be choosing a defense from the game you have fewer skill players from. These are tendencies of the field that we can lean into with roster construction to gain an edge.
• The Chargers defense did a great job forcing things underneath against the Chiefs and the Raiders play two tight ends at a very high rate. In theory, this could lead to fewer opportunities (or just less successful opportunities) for secondary receivers Tre Tucker and Dont’e Thornton. Both Raiders tight ends, Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer, could be played together to create a unique roster construction. The way to look at it is you are removing Bowers from the tight end pool and betting on Mayer outscoring Dalton Schultz, Cade Otton, and the Chargers tight ends (not a huge ask)…..then looking at Bowers as a “Flex” player and betting on him being one of the higher raw scores on the slate (also not a huge ask). This construction in and of itself will be somewhat rare as it just feels so weird to play two TEs from the same team, but you can make it even more unique by doing this on rosters that DO NOT have Geno Smith at QB.
• Another unique roster construction would be three Tampa Bay WR/TE on the same roster without Mayfield. Mayfield’s salary is far higher than the other QBs and as discussed earlier this could be a high volume passing game but that doesn’t guarantee 300 passing yards or where the TDs will come from. With Geno coming off a solid game and being so cheap, while Justin Herbert has ability to add a lot of yards on the ground, this was something that stood out to me as having value on such a small slate. It isn’t hard to see one of Evans/Egbuka going over 100 yards without a touchdown, while the other one had more modest reception/yardage totals but catches a touchdown….and then either Sterling Shepard catching 5 or 6 balls at a salary of only $3,100 after being targeted 6 times in Week or Cade Otton catching a touchdown pass. Like I said, it sounds kind of crazy but the “story” for how that plays out as optimal on a slate like this really isn’t that hard to imagine.
• The Studs – As is always the case on these slates, someone among the “Studs” are likely to have the highest raw scores which makes selecting among them critical, and likely necessary to winning. There are seven players with salaries over $6,000 on this slate – one QB, two RBs, three WRs, and one TE. The reality is that when building a roster MOST rosters are going to have three players from this group as that is what looks the best and feels most comfortable. Finding a way to get four (or even five) of these “Studs” on your roster will naturally make your build more unique while also forcing you to take on some uncomfortable plays at other positions. On the flip side, if you only roster two of these players you almost certainly will have salary left over and few people will be able to resist the urge to spend that extra salary to add another perceived “stud”. I much prefer the former route, with four or five studs rather than just two, but as we try to find paths to first place not just having three will in and of itself have value.

Positional Rankings::

(My favorite plays on the slate at each position when considering all elements, including salary/ownership)

RB::

1. Omarion Hampton
2. Bucky Irving
3. Ashton Jeanty
4. Nick Chubb
5. Rachaad White

WR::

1. Emeka Egbuka
2. Nico Collins
3. Mike Evans
4. Ladd McConkey
5. Jakobi Meyers
6. Quentin Johnston
7. Keenan Allen
8. Sterling Shepard
9. Tre Tucker

TE::

1. Brock Bowers
2. Cade Otton
3. Michael Mayer
4. Dalton Schultz

SHORT SLATE-ONLY OPTIONS::

• Here are a few cheaper options that I’ll be considering on this slate that can help you make a unique lineup, but you wouldn’t be playing on the Main Slate::
  • Dont’e Thornton
  • Woody Marks
  • Jayden Higgins
  • Xavier Hutchinson
  • Tyler Conklin
  • Najee Harris

Good luck and see you in the lobby at 7:00 pm ET Monday!!

-Mike (MJohnson86)