Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Both of these teams have been eliminated from the playoffs.
• This is the second matchup between these two teams, with Dallas winning the first game 44-22 over two months ago.
• These are two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.
• Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is in contention to lead the league in passing yards.
• Washington will have 39-year old veteran Josh Johnson starting at quarterback for them this week due to the status of their season and injuries to Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

Credit to the Cowboys for their conviction in themselves, trying to turn around their season with aggressive moves at the trade deadline, but things ended in a relatively predictable way as their holes on the roster, tough schedule, and slim margin for error have resulted in their being eliminated from playoff contention with two weeks left in the season. Technically, they had an extremely thin chance to sneak in entering last week, but a 34-17 home loss to the Chargers in Week 16 took care of that. The Cowboys now end the year with consecutive divisional games against the 4-11 Commanders and 2-13 Giants, which gives them a strong chance to end the season with a .500 record in head coach Brian Schottenheimer’s debut season in charge. “Breaking even” would be an important landmark for Schottenheimer and would somewhat save the pride of Jerry Jones, while Schottenheimer went on record this week to say the Cowboys would be full steam ahead in the season’s final two weeks. They don’t own their top draft picks this season anyway, so there is no real benefit to holding back.

Washington’s defense is a mess, and injuries continue to mount for them, making them a perfect target for Dallas to produce a feel-good performance. Dallas is actually operating a relatively balanced offense and has a slightly negative pass rate relative to expectation this season. That being said, this is a spot where it would not be surprising to see them really open things up. Washington has a subpar run defense, but it is truly deficient in pass defense. The Commanders rank 30th in pass defense DVOA and PFF coverage grade, while struggling to get pressure despite ranking near the top of the league in blitz rate, as head coach Dan Quinn loves being aggressive in his defensive play calling. Washington mixes up their man and zone coverage looks, but Dak Prescott is adept at identifying things pre-snap and is likely to exploit them through the air regardless of what they throw at him. Dallas may be without starting tackle Tyler Guyton due to an ankle injury, but they are still strong enough up front, and Prescott controls the line of scrimmage well enough to handle an unimposing Washington front.

The Cowboys can’t make the playoffs, but they can still do some special things in the 2025 season. Perhaps the main thing they can accomplish is having Prescott lead the league in passing yards, as he is currently neck and neck with Matthew Stafford in that category, with 4,175 yards. Given his weapons and the remaining matchups, it wouldn’t be shocking for Prescott to take it down and even potentially chase the 5,000-yard mark. George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb are obviously the main targets and seem to alternate with huge weeks, while Ryan Flournoy has emerged as a legitimately talented third receiver to complement them. Tight end Jake Ferguson and the team’s running backs are also involved in the short areas of the field, while WR Kavontae Turpin has seen between three and six opportunities in each of the last five games in a gadget role that tries to get him in space and add a dimension for defenses to think about. Flournoy missed some time in Sunday’s game with a knee issue, was limited in practice Monday, and then missed Tuesday’s practice, which leaves his status in doubt for this week. In any regard, Lamb and Pickens should be the obvious primary targets for Dak in a game where he should be throwing aggressively against a pass defense that has made J.J. McCarthy and Jaxson Dart look like good passers in recent weeks. 

The Cowboys won’t abandon their running game, as they should have some level of success in that regard as well, and many of their passing concepts work best off play action and keeping defenses honest. Javonte Williams has had a terrific season, but has seen his two lowest snap rates and touch counts of the season in the last two weeks. Dallas is increasing the usage of Malik Davis, who has at least three touches in six straight games since their Week 10 bye, broke off a long touchdown run in their Thanksgiving game, and had his two highest usage games of his career the last two weeks. Williams was on a one-year contract and has played very well this year in his role, while he is now battling some injuries and just naturally may be worn down from the rigors of an NFL season. It would make sense if this evolves into more of an even timeshare the last two weeks of the year, especially on a short week like this, as Dallas may look to see what they have in Davis and limit the toll on Williams’ body.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• The Lions are coming off a devastating home loss to the Steelers, which left them with slim playoff hopes. They must win both remaining games and get some help to have a chance.
• Minnesota is likely to have undrafted rookie Max Brosmer starting at quarterback in this game.
• The Vikings have a 7-8 record and can still finish above .500 despite all the problems they have had this season. 
• Detroit QB Jared Goff has been surprisingly effective against Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores in recent matchups.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

The Lions offense struggled in their Week 16 loss to the Steelers as their running game was effectively shut down early, and they ended up throwing the ball at an incredibly high rate. Jared Goff threw 54 passes and was sacked three times, while running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for only 11 rushes – all of which came in the first half!! The game was tied 10-10 at halftime, and the Steelers started the second half with a long drive that ended with a fumble deep in Lions territory. The Lions then took a safety and Pittsburgh made a field goal on the ensuing drive. The Lions followed by going three and out, then the Steelers broke off a long run to go ahead by 12-points early in the 4th quarter. At that point, it was foot on the gas for Detroit as they tried to get back in the game and nearly won, but were thwarted by a couple of questionable calls on the final possession. The point of all this is the box score tells one story, but having that crazy high pass rate was a function of the game script playing out in a fluky way, not something the Lions did by design. The Lions season is on the line this week, as they must win both remaining games to have any chance at the playoffs, and their whole identity was built around being a hard nosed and physical team. Expect them to trend back towards that this week.

The Vikings once again boast a strong defense, ranking 6th in the NFL in defensive DVOA and being a well-schemed unit that can give teams fits at times. The Lions offense is obviously very good, however, and Jared Goff has had success in recent matchups. Goff has completed over 67% of his passes against the Vikings in six straight matchups and has averaged 8.8 yards per pass attempt over the course of the last four times he has seen this Vikings defense. Minnesota is an aggressive and blitz-heavy team, while Goff excels against the blitz and is good at getting the ball out of his hands quickly. His primary “blitz beater” is Amon-Ra St. Brown, who excels at getting quick separation and finding holes in opposing coverages. ARSB is coming off a game in which he struggled against a physical and man-heavy coverage scheme of the Steelers, but he should operate as the engine of the offense against this Vikings team that plays a high rate of zone coverages. The team’s usage has centered around ARSB, Jameson Williams, and Jahmyr Gibbs in recent weeks. That being said, last week we saw receivers Kalif Raymond and Isaac TeSlaa step up as Pittsburgh took away some of the primary options. We can also expect the team to get David Montgomery a few more touches this week after his usage has been very low recently. The Vikings rank 15th in run defense DVOA, compared to 5th in pass defense DVOA. The effectiveness of Goff in this matchup will also be tied to their ability to generate a threat on the ground to keep Minnesota’s defense honest, which means we should expect a relatively balanced approach as the Lions try to save their season.

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Denver is leading the AFC West by a game over the Chargers and would be the conference’s top seed with a bye if the season ended today.
• The Broncos are second in the NFL in pass rate over expectation over the last month as they put more on the plate of quarterback Bo Nix.
• The Chiefs have lost quarterbacks to torn ACL’s in consecutive weeks, leaving relatively unknown QB Chris Oladokun in line to start his first NFL game against one of the league’s top defenses.
• Kansas City is likely to be without wide receivers Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton for this game, while Denver will be without rookie wide receiver Pat Bryant.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

The Broncos are the current top seed in the AFC, but are only a game ahead of the Chargers for the division lead and play them in Week 18. If Denver wins this game and the Chargers lose to the Texans on Sunday, Denver would clinch the AFC West. Denver has been one of the more aggressive passing offenses in the league in recent weeks, and the Chiefs defense is struggling with efficiency and couldn’t handle being on the field so often last week due to the offense’s inability to sustain drives. This could be a “run it up” spot for head coach Sean Payton, who is no stranger to keeping his foot on the gas.

Denver continues to rotate their skill players at a high rate, employing three-man committees at both running back and tight end while also playing five different receivers on over 20% of their snaps in Week 16. The backfield continues to be predictable with rookie RJ Harvey operating as the clear top option, while Jaleel McLaughlin mixes in for about 10 snaps per game and Tyler Badie plays in obvious passing situations due to his strength in pass protection. Harvey dominates the backfield touches despite the split in snaps; this game being on a short week and the Broncos entering as two-touchdown favorites could lead to a greater workload for the other two this week. Evan Engram is the team’s top receiving option at tight end, but has seen over five targets in a game only once (in an overtime game) since Week 7. Finally, Courtland Sutton is by far the team’s top wide receiver and plays nearly every snap and leads them in most statistical categories. However, rookie wide receiver Pat Bryant had a scary situation at the end of Week 16’s loss to the Jaguars and is not going to play this week. This should leave Troy Franklin in line for an expanded role, along with Marvin Mims Jr. and Lil’Jordan Humphrey. Broncos head coach Sean Payton has a history with Humphrey from his time in New Orleans, and when Bryant missed Week 15, Humphrey played on 68% of the team’s snaps. Expect him to be involved this week in a meaningful way.

The Chiefs defense is more bark than bite, as the name brand associated with them carries more weight than the reality of their performance this season. They gave up 26 points to the Titans last week, which is the second highest total Tennessee has achieved all year. Denver has the league’s second highest pass rate over the last month as they have started to unleash Bo Nix. Against a struggling Chiefs team, we should expect them to take some early swings to take control of the game script. If Denver can get a lead, their defense is likely to destroy the Chiefs offense. Kansas City’s only chance in this game is to turn it into a low-scoring and ugly game, which the Broncos know they will face as they enter this game, and is the exact situation they will try to avoid. Kansas City is likely to be without All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie and fellow starting cornerback Jaylen Watson. The Chiefs are 11th in run defense DVOA and 23rd in pass defense DVOA, while getting modest results in QB pressure rate despite blitzing at the league’s third highest rate. This sets them up as a bit of a “pass funnel,” especially with their depleted secondary. The Titans running backs just gashed the Chiefs for over 200 yards from scrimmage, so it’s not like Kansas City is a brick wall in that regard. The Broncos should have enough success on the ground to open up their downfield passing and play-action concepts. Denver’s offense is most efficient when they are able to have success on early downs and really open up the playbook, as we saw most notably in their matchup with the Cowboys earlier this year. Expect Denver to make a statement on Christmas Day and play aggressively as they try to handle their business early and leave little doubt to the outcome.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Our Saturday of DFS starts with the Texans at Chargers in a 39.5 total game with Los Angeles favored by 2. As is almost always the case with the Texans, Vegas expects a low-scoring game here, which feels accurate as both teams are middle of the pack in points scored per game, while the Chargers are 8th in points allowed (20.1) and the Texans are 1st (16.6). Weird stuff can happen in any single game, but the odds of this being a shootout are loowwww.

LOS ANGELES

On the Chargers side of things, Omarion Hampton handled 18 touches last week against the Cowboys on 55% of the offensive snaps, while Kimani Vidal left the game in the fourth quarter with a neck injury. Prior to Vidal’s exit, he still only handled 5 touches, so the split is probably about what we should expect if Vidal plays – maybe something like 70/30 or 65/35 in favor of Hampton. Vidal is questionable, having missed two practices, but was listed as limited in Thursday’s practice estimate (note: not an actual practice!) and is questionable. My guess is he misses, which boosts Hampton quite a bit, but he could surprise us. We don’t ever like playing guys against the Texans D, but we have to, and Hampton’s role would be really strong sans Vidal as the only backups would be Jaret Patterson and Hassan Haskins. I’d guess Patterson would be the backup, but neither has been trusted much in competitive games this season. If Vidal plays, Hampton is still a viable option but he’s a bit on the pricey side – he goes from “good” to “fine,” while Vidal would be tough to trust coming off the injury but would still deserve the “RB2 in Showdown” treatment (for those newer readers or those who are stuffed with Christmas feasting and forgot, RB2s tend to be habitually underowned relative to their likelihoods of being viable in tourneys). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, the Chargers have struggled since Joe Alt was hurt. Yeah, they smashed Dallas last week, but everyone smashes Dallas. It’s a horrible spot, but we have to play at least 1 Charger so let’s try to figure this out. Ladd McConkey is by far the safest and best play in the Los Angeles pass catching corps. Not only is he the most talented pass catcher they have, but he’s also playing the most snaps of late, and he runs most of his routes out of the slot, where the Texans have been more of a solid defense than an elite one. Quentin Johnston and Tre’ Harris will run mostly perimeter routes. It’s worth noting Johnston played just 58% of the snaps last week, the 2nd fewest he’s played in any game this year, but he was also returning from missing a game, so it’s not entirely clear if that’s a sticky data point or just a one-game blip. Either way, the matchup is awful as Houston is absolutely elite against perimeter wideouts, and after a big Week 16, his price has bounced back up to a relatively high $7,600. It’s a clear underweight spot for me. Harris actually tied Johnston with 5 targets and has been playing solid snaps of late. His floor/ceiling combo in this matchup isn’t THAT different from Johnston’s, and he’s only $3,400. Given their huge price gap, I lean toward Harris of the two, and I view them as comparable, given that their route trees are similar. I’d be tempted to max 1 of them as it’s already asking a lot for 1 perimeter wideout to have a good game against Houston, but asking for 2 just seems greedy (and extremely unlikely). Old man Keenan Allen has predictably been fading away as the season goes on, having failed to each even 10 DK points since all the way back in Week 7. Despite that lack of performance he’s still priced at $6,600, making him a pay up to be contrarian option, and one I am particularly unexcited by. We’ve also seen KeAndre Lambert-Smith play a handful of snaps the last couple of weeks, with 1 target in each week, making him worthy of consideration as an MME dart throw at $1,200.

At tight end, Oronde Gadsden burst onto the scene in Week 7 with a 32.4 DK point performance, then had a nice 18.7 point performance in Week 8, and then somewhat vanished. He’s only reached double digit DK points once since Week 9. He’s still talented, but there are a lot of mouths to feed here. The good news for Gadsden is his price has steadily dipped, and at $4,800, he’s back below the kickers (probably where he should be). The bad news is the matchup, as the Texans have stifled opposing tight end production. Overall, Ladd’s my favorite here, then Harris, then everyone else. 

HOUSTON

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Saturday night’s game has some drama involved as the Ravens take on the Packers with Green Bay currently favored by 4.5. Baltimore is missing Lamar Jackson, while Green Bay’s Jordan Love is questionable (as is Malik Willis, his backup!). Love is going through the concussion protocol, and while he has resumed practicing, as we discussed last week with Quinnen Williams, he still has to clear the protocol, and it’s been a real challenge for a player to get through the entire protocol in a single week…and now it’s a short week. I would guess Love is more likely to miss this game, but we’re unlikely to get news today (Friday), and so the Packers will be hoping Love gets approval from the league’s independent neurologist on Saturday before the game. I’m guessing Love misses while Willis plays, but if Willis also misses, it’s…uh…Clayton Tune, I think? Yikes. But in all likelihood, Willis is available – we’ll see. The Packers have clinched a playoff spot, while the Ravens are hanging on by a thread and absolutely need to win this game to keep their hopes alive. What’s important here is that the Packers have a Wild Card seed, but they could still win their division if they win out while Chicago loses both of their remaining games, so even though they’ve locked in a playoff spot, they still have a lot of motivation to win this game. 

GREEN BAY

The Packers backfield is also a bit of a mess. Josh Jacobs played through his longstanding knee injury last week but only managed 12 carries, 3 yards per carry, and a fumble while playing just 39% of the snaps, the lowest he’s seen in a game this season, in which he didn’t get injured mid-game and leave. It really looks like they tried to play Jacobs through injury, and he wasn’t really up for it. That left Emmanuel Wilson to pick up the pieces, handling 14 carries on 46% of the snaps, while Chris Brooks handled a single carry. The last time Jacobs missed a game, Wilson played 56% of the snaps and handled 28 carries and 2 targets (wow), while Brooks had 8 carries and 1 target in a game the Packers won handily. Jacobs is off the injury report this week, and it makes sense he would try to play no matter what, but man, this feels like a tricky situation. He got in some limited practices earlier in the week before being removed from the report on Friday, but given that this has been a multi-week thing for him, it feels tough to have a lot of confidence that he’s fully healthy. So, what do we do here? Personally, I think the smart way to play this is to see what the projections and ownership say. If Jacobs has a full projection, he’ll attract a lot of ownership as a home favorite bell cow, and so it makes sense to consider an underweight position. If Jacobs has diminished projections around the industry, that will result in lower ownership, leaving him as more of a contrarian play. We’ll just have to see where projections land on Saturday. Wilson is basically unplayable as an RB2 at $7k except as a highly contrarian play. If Jacobs were to miss, Wilson would project as an elite value, but with Jacobs in, he’s just not likely to get enough work to pay off that tag. Brooks at $2k could potentially pay off with just a couple of touches if he finds the end zone, giving him more dart throw appeal than Wilson due to the value price. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Christian Watson is listed as questionable with an illness, but he appears to be over his shoulder injury as he practiced in full this week. I expect he will play, which leaves him and Romeo Doubs as the Packers primary perimeter wide receivers. Jayden Reed will mostly play out of the slot, and then Dontayvion Wicks and Matthew Golden will round out the wide receiver position with some secondary snaps. Finally, the Packers are annoying as hell, and so one (or even both!) of Savion Williams and Bo Melton might play a couple of snaps. I will say what I always say about Doubs: he’s boring and so nobody ever really wants to play him, because they want the flashy guys, but Doubs is the most consistent of Green Bay’s wideouts. He’s not flashy, but his red zone role is crazy (he has more red zone targets than ALL of Green Bay’s other wide receivers combined). Last game, I said this, and he put up a 5/84/1 line at relatively modest ownership. Will he do that again? I have no idea, but given that he’s perpetually underowned, he’s a good on-paper play. Watson ostensibly has the highest ceiling amongst the Packers wideouts as he has some serious big-play ability, but it’s worth noting he has yet to reach 100 receiving yards this season and has just one game with over 7 targets, and he’s the most expensive of the Green Bay pass catchers. He’s still a solid option, in my opinion, because he’s on the field a lot, but I expect him to pull significantly more ownership than Doubs (thus Doubs is my favorite when price and ownership are considered). Reed is fine – he’s a great player, and he’s played a robust 64% and 65% of the snaps the last two weeks, but I worry that we’ve also seen his snaps drop off from game to game when the Packers run fewer 11 personnel sets. Reed is also a “brand name” guy who tends to be over-owned because people just really want to believe in him. He’s a really good player, to be clear, but the Packers just don’t tend to use him like we DFS fans wish they would (he’s averaging just 4.5 targets/game in healthy games this season). Wicks and Golden are dart-throwy options who are priced below the kickers but project worse than many other players priced down in that range, which at least should keep their ownership in check.

At tight end, Luke Musgrave’s role has become outstanding with John Fitzpatrick’s season-ending Achilles injury. Last week, Musgrave played a season-high 76% of the snaps. At $2,800, he’s probably the best on-paper value play on the slate. Just be aware he’s not exactly sneaky, and his ownership is likely to be fairly high, though not extreme, given the plethora of other cheap options on this one as well as a lack of other high-end options (Jacobs and Derrick Henry are the only other players at $10k+, assuming Love misses). 

BALTIMORE

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Cardinals handily lead the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and pass attempts per game with Jacoby Brissett under center. The Bengals rank sixth in PROE while averaging 35.2 pass attempts per game in Joe Burrow’s five starts. Pass volume should be plentiful here.
• S Budda Baker (thumb/concussion) and LB Josh Sweat (ankle/knee) have yet to practice for the Cardinals this week. Both appear headed for absences.
• WR Marvin Harrison Jr (heel) logged back-to-back limited sessions to begin the week, making it likely he avoided a setback last week. 
• TE Noah Fant (ankle) logged consecutive limited sessions through Thursday after missing Week 16.
• The most obvious starting point for a game stack in the history of DFS has got to be Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase + Trey McBride, right?
• These are two of the bottom-four defenses in the league.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How ARIZONA Will Try To Win ::

The Cardinals have thrown caution to the wind in a lost season, with offensive coordinator Drew Petzing finally able to run an NFL offense with Kyler Murray sidelined. The team appears to be stuck between a rock and a hard place with Murray in that his future with the team remains uncertain but he is unlikely to generate significant buzz in the trade market this offseason. It remains to be seen what the future holds for this franchise, with the only certainty, in my mind, being that they are going nowhere fast with Murray under center. Snap back to the offense with Brissett at the helm and we’re actually seeing forward-thinking concepts and designs. Brissett is able to work under center, introducing the ability to utilize play action behind an offensive line decimated by injuries this season. Innumerable injuries to their backfield leaving a fifth-string, practice-squad player to lead the unit also doesn’t help things, nor do the key injuries they’ve experienced on the defensive side of the ball. Which is to say, we know what we’re going to get from the Cardinals to end the season, which includes extreme pass rates, an inefficient offense, and a defense that struggles to generate disruption.

The Cardinals are averaging just 17.5 running back carries per game in the 10 games started by Brissett this season. To say there is minimal upside with this unit is the understatement of the century. Season-ending injuries to James Conner, Trey Benson, and Bam Knight leave Michael Carter to lead the way, with Emari Demercado continuing to work his way back into game shape following three missed contests and something called Corey Kiner available for depth. As in, there is not really anything here to take advantage of a Cincinnati defense allowing the highest explosive-run rate and third-most yards per carry this season, other than simply saying the matchup might boost Arizona’s chances of sustaining drives early.

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The premier matchup on the slate is likely McBride against a Bengals defense ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing tight ends and missed tackles this season. Harrison has played in five of Brissett’s 10 starts, with Michael Wilson’s underlying metrics dropping off precipitously in those contests. Wilson has accounted for a lowly 0.14 targets per route run (TPRR), 1.25 yards per route run (YPRR), and 0.24 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) with Brissett at quarterback and MHJ on the field, compared to 0.35 TPRR, 2.94 YPRR, and 0.64 FP/RR with MHJ off the field in that span. With all three of McBride, Harrison, and Wilson on the field with Brissett under center, it’s McBride that handily leads the team in all pass-catching metrics. The Bengals play a lot of single-high through elevated rates of Cover-3 and Cover-1, against which McBride boasts a solid-not-elite 0.46 FP/RR in the same split (Brissett under center and MHJ in the lineup). Considering the top piece of the Cincinnati defense is second-year cornerback DJ Turner, I would expect a heavy emphasis on McBride in this spot.

HOW cincinnati WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Seahawks Safety Coby Bryant and OT Charles Cross appear to be in danger of missing Week 17 after consecutive ‘DNP’s.
• WR Tetairoa McMillan was estimated as a full participant in practice on Thursday after resting on Wednesday. He should be good to go for Week 17 while continuing to play through minor ailments.
• Explosive plays are likely to be difficult to come by in this one, considering the defensive tendencies from each side.
• Sam Darnold has absolutely shredded Cover-3 to the tune of 0.61 FP/DB, a 67.9% completion rate, an 8-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio, a 118.7 passer rating, and a lofty 15.3% deep throw rate. The Panthers rank third in Cover-3 utilization at 40.9%.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks have a very clear and effective game plan this season: keep the play in front of them through elevated Cover-4 and Cover-6 while allowing one of the league’s top pressure-to-blitz ratios to generate disruption, with one of the league’s top run defenses to boot. Offensively, this is a dynamic scheme that leverages play action to gash teams through the air. They have been particularly devastating through the air against Cover-3 and single-high alignments, which they will see a good deal of against the Panthers. But it all starts with their defense, a unit that is holding opponents to the eighth fewest yards per game and second fewest points per game.

The Seattle backfield continues to be as close to a true timeshare as possible, with Kenneth Walker the more explosive back and Zach Charbonnet better suited for short yardage situations. The goal line role has filtered between the two, resulting in a near 50-50 split in high value touches since the team’s Week 8 bye. Walker put up only his second 100-yard effort of the season last week against the Rams on just 11 carries, adding 9.4 points through the air for his top fantasy finish of the year (28.4). Walker has only two games with more than 13 carries since the bye and just five total touchdowns to the nine of Charbonnet, meaning this frustrating timeshare is unlikely to go away any time soon. The Seahawks rank eighth in carries per game at 28.8, but those opportunities simply remain likely to be split amongst the two, capping the relative upside while leaving no floor to speak of for either. The Carolina run defense has slipped of late after starting the season as one of the league’s better units, now allowing a robust 4.5 yards per carry and the eighth most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

Much of what the Seahawks do through the air revolves around what they are able to do on the ground, with heavy play action usage and route structures designed to create space for their top playmaker in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The addition of Rashid Shaheed gives their offense more depth, although he continues to operate in a role delineated by the team’s heavy personnel usage. That has kept veteran Cooper Kupp in a primary role alongside JSN, with injuries to tight ends leaving AJ Barner to operate as a near every-down player for most of the season. JSN’s 0.26 TPRR, 3.85 YPRR, and 0.68 FP/RR against Cover-3 since Week 9 handily lead the team as he averages a ridiculous 17.47 yards per reception in that split. Nobody else on the team comes close to sniffing those metrics, making this a “JSN or bust” setup for the Seahawks through the air.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• DK Metcalf punched a fan during the Week 16 win over the Lions and has been suspended without pay for the rest of the regular season.
• Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell both posted big games against the Lions, but they are splitting snaps nearly down the middle. 
• The Steelers use three tight ends and the split in playing time limits all their value. 
• Quinshon Judkins is out with an ugly leg injury. If Dylan Sampson also sits, there isn’t much behind him on the depth chart.
• Shedeur Sanders has two more games to make his case for next season. So far, he hasn’t looked pro ready. 
• Harold Fannin is the only viable pass catcher from either side with Metcalf missing the game. 
• Both defenses are in play.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How PITTSBURGH Will Try To Win ::

The 9-6 Steelers come into Week 17 fresh off an upset victory in Detroit. The Steelers ran all over the Lions and managed to totally neutralize Detroit’s typically powerful running game. The Lions mustered a pitiful 15 yards on the ground, that, without checking, must be their lowest team rushing total of the season. The Steelers turned 27 total rushes into 230 team rushing yards, averaging 8.5 YPC as a team. Pittsburgh bullied Detroit in a game that essentially ended their season. It also gave the Steelers a stranglehold on the AFC North, needing to win only this game to secure the division, albeit without Metcalf.

The Steelers have been playing at a moderate pace (16^th in seconds per play) and are balanced (13^th in PROE). This year’s Steelers have been a different version of the typical Arthur Smith offense. Aaron Rodgers’ influence is clear. In the past Smith has run at extreme rates, even while losing, eventually being known for running the clock out on himself. This year, the Steelers are using Smith’s run-game concepts, which have always been sound, but they are also making teams respect their ability to attack through the air. The Browns have been tough against the run (No. 2 in DVOA), and solid (10^th in DVOA) against the pass. The Browns defense spent much of the season dominating offenses, but they have taken a step back the past month with the injury to Denzel Ward. 

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The Browns are weaker against the pass, but the Steelers are without Metcalf and have no WR depth. With Metcalf out, the Steelers will likely respond with some version of a three-TE offense. That will probably lead to all of Darnell Washington, Pat Freiermuth, and Jonnu Smith seeing over 50% of the snaps. Smith has been used as a “joker,” Freiermuth as a hybrid WR/TE and Washington as the in-line TE. That’ll be their most likely deployment, in a game where the Steelers will certainly also test the Browns’ recently leaky run defense.  

HOW CLEVELAND WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• RB Alvin Kamara (knee) and TE Foster Moreau (ankle) remained sidelined through Thursday and appear headed for absences in Week 17.
• These two teams rank 27^th (New Orleans) and 28^th (Tennessee) in offensive DVOA and 29^th (New Orleans) and 30^th (Tennessee) in points per game (17.0 and 16.7, respectively).
• Chris Olave broke the slate last week with a 0.32 targets per route run (TPRR), 16 targets, 10 receptions, a 3.36 yards per route run (YPRR), two touchdowns, and solid 0.84 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR).
• Tony Pollard has hit 100 yards in three consecutive weeks after failing to do so in his first 12 games, although that is accompanied by exactly zero carries inside the five in that span.

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How NEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::

The Saints have been forced to adapt at multiple times this season. They changed quarterbacks after Week 8, moving from Spencer Rattler to Tyler Shough. They’ve also had to deal with multiple injuries to their backfield, with Alvin Kamara missing the last four games and backups Kendre Miller and Devin Neal now on injured reserve. They moved wide receiver Rashid Shaheed at the trade deadline, released Brandin Cooks, and then lost Devaughn Vele for the season. Finally, tight end Foster Moreau has already been ruled out for Week 17. Their offensive tendencies have been all over the place, most recently having Shough attempt 49 passes in a beatdown of the Jets, which does make sense when considering the current state of their backfield. Audric Estime and Evan Hull combined for only 10 carries last week as Taysom Hill effectively served as their lead back (12 carries for 42 yards). The interesting aspect about that last game is that their available personnel for their coming game is likely to resemble what they had at their disposal last week. Furthering the potential for them to be airing it out here is a matchup against a Titans team that is now one of the most pass-funnel teams in the league. Color me intrigued.

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The byproduct of the most pass-heavy game of the season for the Saints last week was a backfield that combined for only 10 carries, although Taysom contributed 12 of his own. To highlight how little the two “running backs” were involved, Estime played a ridiculous 45 offensive snaps due to the shortcomings of the New York offense but handled only five carries. Hull was on the field for 16 offensive snaps and handled five carries. The coaching staff clearly looked at their available bodies and decided that running their game plan through Shough gave them the best chance of success. There are distinct similarities this week, with a similar supporting cast of offensive players and a matchup against a clear pass-funnel defense, one that continues to struggle to field a legitimate secondary. I think we can confidently write off both members of the backfield from the Saints.

One of the sneakier aspects of last week’s game plan was that Kevin Austin ranked second on the team in snaps (67) and routes (41) behind Olave, with Mason Tipton utilized as a pure package player and the tight ends stuck in a maddening rotation. The absence of Moreau could afford Johnson additional routes, or we could just see Jack Stoll step right into the vacated role. Either way, Olave broke the slate last week with a 0.32 TPRR, 16 targets, 10 receptions, a 3.36 TPRR, two touchdowns, and solid 0.84 FP/RR. Hill checked in second across the board, followed by Johnson. It feels a bit cringy to click Olave’s name at a significantly inflated $7,200 price tag, particularly considering the Saints rank 27^th in offensive DVOA and 29^th in scoring, but everything continues to align for him in this spot. In order of preference, all of Olave, Hill, Johnson, and Austin can be considered as stacking partners or one-offs considering the matchup and expected tendencies from the Saints this week.

HOW tennessee WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• RB Bhayshul Tuten returned to limited sessions in each practice through Thursday, indicating a potential return against the Colts.
• CB Sauce Gardner was listed as a limited participant on Thursday, although the team did not hold a practice.
• Head coach Shane Steichen confirmed it will be Philip Rivers under center in Week 17.
• These are two of the league’s strongest run defenses.

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How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The Denver win over the Chiefs on Christmas made it so the Jaguars no longer have a shot at the No. 1 seed out of the AFC, but they can still move into the No. 2 seed over the Patriots if the latter stumbles. They could also lose the division lead to the Texans if they falter, making these final two games of utmost importance to playoff seeding in Jacksonville. The past two games go down as two of the three most positive PROE games for the Jags this season and also account for the only two instances in which quarterback Trevor Lawrence accounted for more than three touchdowns. After clearly searching for their identity with a new head coach in the first half of the season, the Jaguars have averaged 33 points per game since their Week 8 bye, which, for those keeping track at home, would rank as the league’s top scoring offense if extrapolated to the full season. Willy nilly extrapolation in a “fun with numbers” manner is often misleading, but this is a large enough sample to carry weight, particularly considering a clear causal factor of the sample size being taken in the second half of a season with a new offensive system, head coach, and offensive play caller. Which is to say, we should expect the Jaguars to find a way to score points against the Colts.

Bhayshul Tuten was thought to have sustained an injury that would cost him the remainder of the regular season just two weeks ago, but consecutive limited sessions to start the week of preparation hint at a potential return after just one missed game. I tentatively expect that to happen, meaning he should slot back into his primary early-down, change of pace role behind established starter Travis Etienne. LeQuint Allen remains on hand to soak up clear passing downs, a role he has held throughout the season. Etienne somewhat quietly ranks seventh in total touchdowns at the running back position after his recent stretch of six scores in three games, although Tuten played all of 13 offensive snaps in that stretch. The one thing that hasn’t fully clicked for Liam Coen’s offense is his run game, now averaging just 4.1 yards per carry on the season. For comparison, that’s the same as the Bengals and Texans, two teams we do not laud as proficient on the ground. Furthermore, the Colts currently rank third in yards allowed per carry (3.8) and fifth in rush yards allowed per game (98.5). This is far from a pristine matchup for this backfield, although it is foolish to completely write off a backfield for a team averaging over 33 points per game over a solid eight-game sample.

It took Trevor Lawrence a long time to get the juices flowing under his new tutelage, but I have to say, he has truly turned a corner of late. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in five straight after doing so just twice in his first 10 games, including 10 total touchdowns in the last two. I don’t know if we can directly point to the addition of Jakobi Meyers as the saving grace of the offense, but it sure does appear that way on the surface. Not only does the recent stretch of elite offensive production coincide with the games played after the team’s bye, but it also coincides with the acquisition of Meyers at the trade deadline. No longer is this a “Brian Thomas Jr and everyone else” setup. Furthermore, the coming-out party of Parker Washington has been much needed in Jacksonville, particularly after the small-market team allowed Evan Engram to walk in free agency this offseason. That’s important for the Jags because the structure of Coen’s offense is designed to place stress on multiple levels of the field, which the team can now do efficiently throughout a game. The status of Indianapolis cornerback Sauce Gardner likely plays an immense role in the matchup we expect for the Jaguars this week due to a clear shift in defensive tendencies with him present or absent. The Colts went from one of the highest Cover-3 defenses in the league to one of the highest man defenses in the league once Gardner was added at the deadline, then shifted back to a Cover-3 base when he was injured. None of Thomas, Meyers, or Washington has separated from the pack against Cover-3 since Week 9, while Meyers has seen a team-leading 0.25 TPRR against man and Washington has seen a team-leading 2.84 YPRR and leads the team in FP/RR against man (0.57) in that same span.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• OT Tristan Wirfs (toe) remained sidelined at practice on Wednesday, although he has continued to play through the ailment (other than in Week 14).
• Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (calf) was a ‘DNP’ on Wednesday after missing Week 16. Definitely something to keep an eye on from the leader of the Miami secondary.
• The Dolphins have been the most run-heavy team in the league during the second half of the season. Somewhat quietly (and shockingly), the Buccaneers rank 26^th in PROE since their Week 9 bye.
• There doesn’t appear to be a ton of upside from this game environment, leaving it firmly in the “one-off or bust” realm.

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How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

It has been a tale of two seasons for the Buccaneers. They started off hot by winning five of their first six games before taking a 6-2 record into their Week 9 bye. We know injuries have ravaged this team, but the way they have approached games following their bye week has been completely different from how they started the season. This was never a heavy PROE team, but they rank 26th in PROE from Week 10 on, losers of six of seven in that span (including last week’s “battle for the NFC South against the Panthers). They are no longer interested in running up the score early and coasting in the second half, instead taking a much more methodical approach throughout as they look to eke out wins late. That has been far from fruitful of late, considering they have lost their last three by a combined total of eight points. Even through all that, the Buccaneers still have a clear path to the postseason, with the easiest path being to take care of business against the Dolphins to set up a “winner take all” rematch against the Panthers in Week 18. Which is to say, there should be no change to their overall approach against Miami.

Last week was the first game that Bucky Irving reclaimed a true lead-back role since returning from injury in Week 13, at least as far as snap rate is concerned. He has handled exactly 18 or 19 opportunities in each of those four contests, now averaging 20.6 opportunities per game in his eight healthy games this season. That said, he is averaging a putrid 3.51 yards per carry and has exactly zero carries inside the five in 2025. The Dolphins have been much better against the run in the second half of the season, ceding 4.23 yards per carry, a low 3.7% explosive run rate, and allowing only four rushing scores in the six games since Week 9. There is nothing in the profile or matchup that screams upside beyond the expectation of 18+ opportunities for Irving. Rachaad White maintains the primary change of pace and clear passing downs role, while Sean Tucker is used almost entirely in short yardage situations, including goal line work. Finally, the Buccaneers are primarily a man/gap run offense with over 60% of their carries as a team coming within that blocking structure. In the last six games, the Dolphins have ceded only 3.16 yards per carry to opposing man/gap concepts.

There was a report that came out on Wednesday from head coach Todd Bowles, where he stated that he wanted to get rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka more involved early in Week 17, which would make a lot of sense had he not just been held to 64% and 56% snap rates the previous two games. What changed in those two games was that both Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan were healthy, marking the first two games of the season for McMillan and only the sixth appearance for Evans. In other words, the coaching staff has shown us that they continue to value McMillan, continue to view Evans as the alpha, and are unwilling to change the role of veteran Chris Godwin, effectively leaving Egbuka out in the rain in recent weeks. I don’t know if that quote can be taken at face value, or if we can jump to the conclusion that Egbuka is a lock to see a greater role in the final two games of the regular season. What we know is this: this is an offense in 11-personnel, one that now has four primary receivers healthy, in addition to the inclusion of now-situational-piece Tez Johnson. I spent so much time on that because of the defensive tendencies from the Dolphins, a team that has utilized zone coverage at an inflated 78.2% clip in the previous six games, and how these pass-catchers have exploited those coverages this season. Within that hefty zone rate is a somewhat hidden 34.1% Cover-2 rate, which is almost unheard of in the league in recent history. On paper, it is Evans, tight end Cade Otton, and Chris Godwin that lead the charge against Cover-2, with Otton (2.09 YPRR) and Godwin (2.19 YPRR) the most efficient. Cover-3 is a different story entirely, with the lauded rookie leading the way with a hefty 0.29 TPRR and solid 2.29 YPRR. Within the assumption that the Buccaneers would prefer not to air the football out at elevated rates, nothing truly pops on paper from this spot, although Evans and Egbuka theoretically carry the most upside.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The Jets are starting Brady Cook in what looks like an attempt to lose out for the rest of the season. 
• Breece Hall has seen his playing time fall for two consecutive weeks. He didn’t play over 65% of the snaps in either game. 
• Adonai Mitchell is a cheap WR1, but he’s catching pass from a QB who belongs on the practice squad.
• The Jets defense has been lit on fire through the air. They’re last in pass defense DVOA by a mile. 
• Drake Maye has been playing at an MVP level, and he has one of the highest floors on the slate. 
• TreVeyon Henderson left last week’s game with a concussion. Rhamondre Stevenson played every snap after he left. 
• Stefon Diggs doesn’t have strong snap numbers, but he’s on the field when it counts, and the Jets have given up a long list of big games to WRs.

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How NEW ENGLAND Will Try To Win ::

The 12-3 Patriots come into Week 17 in contention for the top seed in the AFC after outlasting the Ravens on Sunday night. Denver lost against the red-hot Jaguars, which vaulted the Patriots into a tight race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Pats are currently tied with the Broncos, and one game ahead of the Bills, Jaguars, and Chargers. A lot can still happen in the AFC playoff seeding depending on the last two weeks, but as was the case for so many years with Tom Brady, the AFC East feeds the Patriots weak opponents. They are playing the Jets/Dolphins to end the year, which is a significantly easier finish to the season than any of their competitors will face. All the other teams in contention for the top seed will face at least one team with a winning record. Nothing is determined, but the Patriots look to have the inside track on the critical first-round bye. They should be highly motivated and must take care of business against one of the worst teams in the league. 

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PFP the OWS pennant

The Pats have been playing slowly (30^th in seconds per play), but part of that is because they’re often protecting a lead. They’ve generally been aggressive (No. 4 in PROE), which has continued late in the season (No. 4 in PROE the past month). Josh McDaniels has leaned into Maye all year and that is no reason that will change with Maye delivering an MVP-caliber performance. The Jets have been below average (19^th in DVOA) against the run, and harpooned (32^nd in DVOA) through the air. The Jets are abominable against the pass. They get destroyed every week and have left the second-to-last ranked in DVOA Bengals way in the dust. Josh McDaniels has long been an adaptable play caller, and he’s not blind. The Patriots are going to have a pass-first game plan, as they have all season. The chance of a pass-heavy game plan is heightened by the potential loss of Henderson, who left last week’s game with a concussion. The Patriots are going to attack through the air. 

HOW NEW YORK WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• This game features the two teams tied for the worst record in the league, which results in a situation where the loser will likely “win” the #1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
• The Giants are likely to be without three starting offensive linemen in this game.
• New York threw only 13 passes in last week’s loss to the Vikings while running the ball 30 times.
• The Raiders sent tight end Brock Bowers to injured reserve on Tuesday, which leaves WR Tre Tucker and TE Michael Mayer in line for expanded roles.
• Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty is coming off his best game of the season and now faces the league’s worst run defense.

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How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Giants appear to be playing out the string on a lost season and are coming off a game in which they never led yet attempted only 13 passes against the Vikings. After seeing the Lions offense get destroyed by Minnesota’s defense on Christmas, however, it is a little easier to understand how and why that was the gameplan for the Giants in that spot. Regardless, the Giants are 31st in pass rate over expectation in the last month as they have focused on keeping rookie QB Jaxson Dart healthy and out of harm’s way as much as they can. The team has basically scrapped the designed run plays for Dart that made him so dynamic and basically a fantasy football cheat code earlier this season, instead opting for a more traditional running game that involves both Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary. The Giants offensive line has been average to slightly below average this season in adjusted line yards per carry and PFF run blocking grade and this week that performance could slip. They are likely to be without three starters this week as the season takes its toll and the team looks towards 2026. This will likely have a tangible impact on their rushing efficiency against a Raiders defense that has been solid most of the season despite opponents racking up a high volume of rush attempts as Las Vegas has played most of the season from behind.

When Dart does throw the ball, his primary targets are likely to be slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson, tight end Theo Johnson, and his running backs. Dart has not been as aggressive throwing the ball recently as the team schemes the quick passing game to get the ball out of his hands. Given their focus on keeping Dart healthy, the injuries on the offensive line, and the better than advertised Raiders pass rush we can expect him to once again be getting rid of the ball quickly and his primary targets to be those short area and intermediate options. Ultimately, we are likely to see a similar approach from the Giants offense this week to what we saw against the Vikings, although probably not quite to that extreme. Tyrone Tracy Jr. is a strong candidate for upwards of 20 touches, while Devin Singletary will be involved once again. Robinson and Johnson should each see a handful of targets, while a few downfield shots may be mixed in here and there. Ultimately the goal for New York in this one will be evaluating their younger players and getting Dart out in one piece.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• Philadelphia clinched the NFC East last week and is basically guaranteed to be either the #2 or #3 seed in the NFC playoffs.
• Eagles WR A.J. Brown had his wisdom teeth removed this week, which has held him out of practice. He is expected to be available on Sunday, but it is a situation to monitor.
• The Bills run defense has had major issues all season and Saquon Barkley has run for over 100 yards in two of his last three games.
• Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen suffered a foot injury in Week 16, but was able to finish the game. 
• The Bills running game went wild against the Browns, with James Cook and Ty Johnson combining for 150 total yards and three touchdowns.

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How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles took the scenic route on their way to a Week 16 victory over a depleted Commanders team as they clinched the NFC East title for the second consecutive season and third time in the last four years. Washington led the game until deep into the third quarter, before Philadelphia scored touchdowns on three straight possessions to secure the victory. The Eagles are two games ahead of the current NFC South leading Panthers, meaning they are almost assured to be no worse than the #3 seed, while also being two games behind the NFC West leading Seahawks, meaning they are also almost assured to be no higher than the #2 seed. The Seahawks and Panthers play in the early window on Sunday, which means by the time the Eagles game starts this week there is a chance they are 100% locked into that #2 or #3 seed window if Seattle wins. Considering they are coming off a long Super Bowl run and have had a lot of health and chemistry issues this season, preserving their players and calling the game in a certain way might come into play for the analytically minded Eagles.

The best way to beat the Bills all season has been on the ground, as they have been destroyed by several teams throughout the year. Buffalo has surrendered over 180 rushing yards six times this season and ranks 31st in run defense DVOA and 28th in PFF run defense grade. They generally play “lighter” personnel, which is a big part of their elite pass defense, but power running games have given them fits. At full strength, the Eagles would be in a great spot to get things going. However, they have two all pro offensive linemen – tackle Lane Johnson (foot) and guard Landon Dickerson (illness) – who did not practice Wednesday or Thursday this week. Johnson seems highly unlikely to play, while Dickerson probably suits up but has missed time at other points this season as well. Saquon Barkley was able to post a nice game last week and has gone over 100 rushing yards while averaging over six yards per carry in two of the last three games. Barkley now has three 100-yard rushing games this season and they came in his three matchups with bottom-tier run defenses of the Commanders, Giants, and Raiders. This is a perfect matchup for him to be a focal point once again, but the questions on the offensive line make his success less of a “sure thing” than it would be at full strength. We could also see backup Tank Bigsby be more involved in a run-heavy game plan as the Eagles won’t sit Barkley in this game, but could be proactive in limiting the overall volume he sees.

The Bills are a very good pass defense and are well schemed and complex in what they show to opposing quarterbacks, while the Eagles run a relatively simple and vanilla passing offense that relies on their guys “winning” matchups and Jalen Hurts being able to see guys open before he throws it, rather than using timing and anticipation to throw them open. Buffalo ranks 21st in blitz rate and is more than happy to drop players into coverage and doing so in this matchup will surely give Hurts fits. The Bills scheme and approach will likely lead to a very conservative underneath passing attack for the Eagles, regardless of the status of top wide receiver A.J. Brown – who had his wisdom teeth removed this week. Brown tends to dominate against man coverage due to his physical prowess and ability to win individual matchups along with the willingness of Hurts to throw it his way and trust him to win if he knows it is a one-on-one situation. The nature of this matchup is likely to mean greater involvement for DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has a fun looking game with a huge 52.5 total as the Bears visit the 49ers, with San Francisco installed as 3.5-point home favorites. Both teams have clinched playoff spots, but there are still seeding implications, mainly for the 49ers in a tough NFC West. If the Packers win on Saturday night, the Bears will also need another win in order to lock up the division. If the Packers lose, the Bears will have the division locked, but it’s still unusual for teams to do significant rests before the last week, so my guess is Chicago plays it pretty straight up regardless of the outcome of Saturday night’s game.

SAN FRANCISCO

On the 49ers side, Christian McCaffrey has one of the most elite roles in the NFL. He routinely plays ~80% or so of the running back snaps, he has over 1k rush yards and is closing in on 1k receiving yards on the season with 16 touchdowns and ~25 DK points per game…the role is just monstrous. After writing up quite a few 49ers Showdowns this year (and in previous years), I’ve kind of run out of things to say about CMC. He’s an awesome play every slate. He’s also really expensive, and while this is a slate without a ton of high-priced guys, he does take up a lot of salary and will also command massive ownership, so it IS possible for him to not make it into optimal lineups. RB2 Brian Robinson is a punt play who is unlikely to get enough touches to be relevant unless he happens to steal a touchdown or CMC gets hurt.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle are both questionable, which makes this write-up all sorts of fun for me. Pearsall got in some limited practices this week, and so I’d guess he’s better than 50/50 to play, while Kittle did not practice at all but doesn’t necessarily need to. I’d put him at under 50/50 to play. Keep in mind that while the 49ers surely care about seeding, I expect they care about having Kittle and Pearsall healthy more. They’re 11-4, as are the Rams, who don’t play until Monday, but they probably care more about Seattle. If Seattle loses, San Francisco could match them at 12-4 with a win, and the 49ers won their matchup in Week 1. At the end of the day I expect the 49ers to be cautious with their players, but if Seattle gets upset by the Panthers in the morning, it’s at least possible that San Francisco will push a bit harder to try to win this game and catch them in the standings, and that could potentially lead to a riskier decision about Kittle and/or Pearsall. That’s a lot of conjecture, but that’s the time of the year we’re at! 

Assuming Pearsall is active, we’ll see him, Jauan Jennings, Kendrick Bourne, and Demarcus Robinson as the four main wide receivers. Jennings has the highest floor of the bunch and comes with end zone targets galore, but I’m not sure Pearsall is really that far behind in terms of ceiling, and he’s $1k cheaper. Most projection systems are strongly in favor of Jennings, and he is absolutely a solid play, but I think that makes Pearsall a very intriguing overweight position in tournaments. Behind those two, Robinson and Bourne are likely to split snaps pretty evenly, but Robinson both runs out of the slot (where Chicago has been exceptionally vulnerable) and has a very healthy 14.2 yard aDOT to Bourne’s 10.9. They’re both viable, but I definitely lean towards Robinson. Should Pearsall miss, last week we saw Bourne get the biggest boost in snaps  (70% vs. 44% for Robinson), and would flip my preference.

At tight end, George Kittle is an elite option if he plays. He always has a bit of a scary floor, but one of the highest ceilings of any tight end in the NFL, even on limited volume, and this is not a matchup that should scare anyone. If he misses, however, expect backup Jake Tonges to be a very, very chalky play. Tonges ran routes on ~70% of dropbacks when Kittle missed earlier, and at just $3k, he would project as the best value play on the slate. I would be cautious playing Tonges in CMC captain lineups, because he will be such a strong salary saver that the pairing will be incredibly popular. I would not rule it out, but I would make sure any CMC captain lineups that also have Tonges find some other way to be different. 

CHICAGO

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Monday Night Football has the Rams traveling to Atlanta to take on the Falcons in a 46.5 total game with Los Angeles favored by 3. Notably, this has dropped significantly. The Rams were initially touchdown favorites, and the game total was 49.5, so the total has come down and it’s almost all on the Rams side. I would guess that is partly due to Davante Adams being ruled doubtful while Drake London is technically questionable but seems a lock to play, but it also feels a bit disrespectful for one of the best teams in the league to only be 3-point favorites against a 6-9 team that’s just playing out the stretch. The Rams still care about this game as the NFC West is a super competitive division, and they’re currently tied with the 49ers (before Sunday night’s game is played). This one is important for playoff seeding. Let’s dig in.

LOS ANGELES

In the backfield, Kyren Williams’ role has been shaky of late. Going back to Week 10, he’s bounced between 12-15 carries per game until a massive 23 (plus 6 targets) last week, while RB2 Blake Corum has 7-14 carries per game in that window, including double-digit carries in each of the last 3 games. Corum’s role is real, and he’s been more efficient than Kyren the entire season. Somewhat humorously, he also has three times the number of carries over 20 yards on the season. Kyren is “fine” – mainly because the Rams are a very good team – but it’s hard to get excited about him when it seems clear they’re trying to stat-pad Matthew Stafford’s MVP case with an extremely high passing rate in the red zone. At $9,600, Kyren almost certainly needs at least one of A) a touchdown, B) 100+ yards, or C) a pile of catches in order to pay off. Given that he’s only reached the 100 rushing yard mark once on the season and has only gone over 3 catches once, we’re basically drawing for a touchdown here. I don’t mean to hate on Kyren here – but the role has looked shaky, and it’s hard to justify his salary when there are so many other high-end options in this game. Corum is much more appealing to me as a value play. If he breaks one long TD (or even gets a short one along with enough other carries), he could easily find his way into winning lineups. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Puka Nacua is a national hero. I don’t know what else you want me to write about this dude. He’s, what, a top-3 WR in the league along with JSN and Chase. Dude’s a boss, and the matchup here is absolutely not scary against a Falcons defense that has given up a ton of high-production games to opposing WR1s. Without Davante, Puka saw 16 (!) targets last week and put up a 12/225/2 line (!!!). Not bad. After that, the WR position gets icky. Konata Mumpfield (yes, that’s his real name) led the non-Puka WRs in snaps and routes last week and also had a whopping 8 targets. At $2,200, he’s going to project as a really solid value option, and on a slate with a lot of high-end plays, he’s likely to pull a bunch of ownership as a result. He is, though, objectively a very solid play. The rest of the WRs are a mishmash: Jordan Whittington, Xavier Smith, and Tutu Atwell all played a few snaps last week. I’d rank these guys as Smith, then Atwell, then Whittington for tournament upside, and I would max 1 of this group because they’re all directly competing for a very small pool of playing time.

At tight end, Colby Parkinson and Terrance Ferguson were both on the field a ton last week, nearly matching each other in snaps and routes, and each seeing 4 targets. Most projection services around the industry seem to think this isn’t sticky and have Parkinson materially higher than Ferguson. I’m not so sure, as the Rams have not shown much confidence in their other WRs behind Puka and Davante all season long, while Ferguson is talented, and his role has been growing for several weeks. I could be wrong, but I like to bet on Ferguson’s talent if his ownership is suppressed due to being underprojected. You can also take shots on TE3 Davis Allen, who will be on the field plenty, but he’s primarily a blocker. He did see 5 targets last week and caught a 27-yard pass (his longest of the season), but he has yet to reach double-digit DK points this year. 

ATLANTA