XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 16 begins with a critical NFC game as the Rams visit the Seahawks for a 43.5 total game with Los Angeles favored by 1.5. These are the NFC’s two best teams (or at least the teams with the two best records) as they’re both 11-3 and tied atop the division. Obviously, this is a big deal, and there are interesting developments with each team. The Seahawks offense has been struggling lately, while the Rams are without Davante Adams, who appears to be doubtful for this week’s game. 

SEATTLE

On the Seattle side, the backfield’s a 2-way split between Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet. Walker looked like he was pulling away a few weeks back, but then he has opportunity counts of 15, 17, 13, and 10 in the past four weeks, while Charbonnet has 6, 14, 10, and 9 in those games. Those are four straight wins with a favorable game script for running (they were playing from behind against the Colts last week, but it was close throughout), but Seattle has just had a tough time generating useful fantasy scores from its backfield due to the split and their overall low play volume (58.5 plays per game, roughly 3 below average). Walker has (much) more big-play ability, as Charbonnet only has 2 carries over 20 yards all season, while Walker has 6, but Charbonnet has much more touchdown equity with 20 carries inside the 10-yard line against 10 for Walker. Against the Rams, one of the league’s better defenses, this is just a really tough spot. I don’t really want to play either of these guys, but in Showdown, it’s tough to ignore the touchdown equity they bring to the table, and their prices are very reasonable at $7,200 for Walker and $6,200 for Charbs. I’ll lean slightly to Charbonnet based on the red zone role and the price discount. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, it’s basically Jaxon Smith-Njigba or bust. While this is a low passing volume offense, JSN has a massive 35% target share and 46.4% air yards share, good for 1st and 4th in the NFL, respectively. He’s averaging 9.3 targets per game and leads the league in receiving yards. He’s an absolute stud. When these teams met in Week 11 and played to a modest 40-point total game, JSN put up 23.6 points with a 9/105/0 line. That’s closer to his floor than his ceiling (keep in mind JSN only has TWO games all season under 20 DK points!), but would still almost certainly be enough to put him in winning tournament lineups. After JSN, we have Cooper Kupp, who is largely running cardio out on the field (just four games all season of 10+ DK points and only one of 15+, which is most likely about what you need at his price). We also have trade acquisition Rashid Shaheed, who just played the most snaps he’s played with Seattle last week at 68%. Shaheed has 12 targets in the last two weeks and looks to be fully integrated with the offense at this point. Giving Seattle another deep threat, Shaheed has a much higher ceiling than Kupp, and at only $800 more, is a much stronger option to me. Some combination of Cody White and Jake Bobo will pick up a handful of WR4 snaps and can be viewed as tourney dart throws – White has a slight lead here.

At tight end, Elijah Arroyo was put on IR, so AJ Barner will be on the field a ton with Eric Saubert backing him up. Barner is one of the league’s least exciting tight end options for fantasy purposes (he’s almost always unowned on main slates), but he does have 4 touchdowns on the season as well as three games of 50+ receiving yards. At $4,400, if he finds his way to one of those outcomes, there’s a very good chance he’s in winning lineups. He’s a solid, cheap play, while Saubert is a risky punt.

LOS ANGELES

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

The season is approaching its end, plus the holidays, which gives us extra Showdowns! On Saturday, the Eagles travel to Washington for a 44.5 total game with Philly favored by 6.5. On the one hand, we have a reeling Commanders team that had Super Bowl aspirations entering the season but has had everything go wrong, especially Jayden Daniels being hurt for most of the year, while the Eagles are looking for a repeat but have looked off on offense all season. Their 9-5 record overlooks an offense that has scored a below-average 22.9 points per game (after putting up 29/game last year), but their defense has been absolutely elite. The Commanders defense has been bad – the Eagles are likely to score, the question is if Marcus Mariota can keep up. 

washington

In the Washington backfield, Chris Rodriguez is off the injury report and will be returning from a 1-game absence. Over the last few games, Rodriguez has been acting as the lead back, playing 41-45% of the snaps but only seeing 16, 12, and 10 opportunities in those games (all losses, but two of them were losses by a single score – not situations where game script punished him). With only two receptions all year, Rodriguez is a 2-down back who comes with game script risk and little access to a high-touch ceiling, even if the game stays close, and a mediocre matchup to boot. Jacory Crosky-Merritt should mix in, but is unlikely to be the starter. It is a weird spot, given that he’s the only Commanders RB to reach 18 opportunities (which he’s done twice), and he ran last week at 5.3 yards per carry, but in the previous three games, the Commanders started Rodriguez over him. Jeremy McNichols will also play primarily in a 3rd down/hurry-up offense role.

This is a really murky backfield. JCM and Rodriguez have both been treated as the starter this season, and while I’d guess Rodriguez moves back into the starter role because he had it for three weeks prior to his injury (and JCM didn’t even start last week – McNichols did, but was extremely ineffective on the ground), JCM was the starter earlier in the year. The Commanders should really be in a “let the young guys play” mode to conduct talent evaluation. The smart thing for Washington is to let JCM start, but it’s unclear if they’ll be smart. You could take shots on at what I expect will be very low ownership, but it’s a highly contrarian play. McNichols might be the best on-paper RB play on Washington, given his low price and passing game role.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, we have what is likely to be a low-volume offense. Mariota has started seven games and has attempted more than 30 passes just once (though it was a nice 50!) despite being 5-2 in those games. With tight end Zach Ertz on injured reserve, at least we have a high degree of confidence in where those targets will go: Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel should see large target shares. Both of them are talented and have big play upside, but are constrained by mediocre QB play and modest volume (though without Ertz, they did combine for 9 of 19 pass attempts last week – a healthy target share between them). The Eagles pass catchers on the other side will out-project them materially, making going heavier Commanders a contrarian tournament option, but as both of these offenses can be very low volume through the air, the difference in performance can easily just come down to who finds the end zone. I have a slight preference for Deebo here, as the Eagles have consistently clamped down on opposing WR1s while allowing WR2s to beat them (close to the lowest fantasy output per game allowed to opposing WR1s but almost the highest to WR2s).

WR3 Noah Brown was hurt (again) last game – poor guy – leaving Jaylin Lane and Treylon Burks to split WR3 snaps. Last time without Brown but with McLaurin, Burks played 66% of the snaps while Lane played 39%, but this looks like a volatile situation that could easily flip in any given game. Most projection sites around the industry have Burks projecting for a little bit more production at a lower price, but it’s a narrow gap, which has me interested in playing the ownership game and going overweight on Lane. At tight end, John Bates and Ben Sinnott will split the role, but both are primarily blockers (they each only saw one target last week), and this is one of the worst matchups for tight ends. They’re just dart throws as the wide receivers should command most of the passing volume.

philadelphia

xandamere’s showdown slant ::

Ooh, a divisional grudge match! The other Saturday game has the Packers and Bears battling in Chicago, with Green Bay installed as 1.5-point road favorites. We have a lot of questionable tags in this one, so let’s pick those apart. Josh Jacobs has been playing through a knee injury that he’s played through multiple times this season, but he hasn’t practiced at all this week, which makes it feel like it might be more than maintenance…this one has me a bit concerned. Christian Watson returned to practice on Thursday, while Dontayvion Wicks came back on Wednesday, and both seem likely to play. On the Chicago side, D’Andre Swift was added to the injury report with a groin issue on Wednesday – he’s been dealing with this issue for weeks, but being off the injury report at the start of the week and then being added is concerning. Cole Kmet is also questionable but got in a full practice on Thursday, so he should play, which is relevant with Rome Odunze and Luther Burden both ruled out. Ok. Whew. That’s a lot of injuries. I’m going to write this up as if all of the questionable guys play, and the pass catchers all seem likely to, but it’s possible the running backs miss, and I’ll touch on those situations.

chicago

The Chicago backfield has been a timeshare for most of the season, with Swift and Kyle Monangai splitting work. It really started splitting in Week 7 and then got closer in Week 12. Since that Week 12 game when Monangai out-snapped Swift (though it’s the only time that’s happened with them both healthy and it was probably due to Swift fumbling), Swift has 16.3 opportunities per game while Monangai has 16. Pretty close. I’d lean towards Swift a bit here as I think he has a clearer path to 20+ touches and has been seeing more passing game work, but once price is factored in, Monangai looks like a slightly stronger play given the massive $3k discount we get by playing him. The matchup’s fine here as the Packers have been a great pass defense, but only okay on the ground. If Chicago pulls off a win here, it’s extremely likely that at least one of the running backs is involved and shows up in winning lineups. They can be played on the same roster, even, but I wouldn’t play them with Caleb Williams, as well, as it’s extremely unlikely there are enough touchdowns to go around for all three of them. 

In the passing game, with Odunze and Burden out, we’ll see DJ Moore in the unquestioned WR1 role with Olamide Zaccheaus and Devin Duvernay backing him up. Zaccheaus was a full-time player the last two weeks without Odunze, while Duvernay played a very modest role (10 offensive snaps) last week as the Bears leaned on a lot of heavy personnel sets. Zaccheaus has never been a prolific target earner in his career, but does have multiple games of 6-8 targets early in the season, and at just $3k, he projects as a solid value option, though with a bit of a questionable ceiling and what is likely to be high ownership. My interest in Zaccheaus actually ties somewhat to Swift’s status: if Swift misses, ownership will flood to Monangai and away from Zaccheaus, making him a stronger tournament option. If Swift plays, Zaccheaus projects as the best value on the slate (by a really wide margin), and while he’s solid on paper, he’s likely to be overowned relative to his likelihood of appearing in winning lineups. Duvernay is pretty thin as it’s extremely difficult to see him getting to even a 50% snap rate, and he’s unlikely to earn many targets when on the field, but he does have good per-target upside and you can pray for a kick return touchdown that would benefit him as well (which means he has some positive correlation with the Bears DST).

At tight end, we’re likely to see a lot of Colston Loveland and Kmet on the field, though that’s resulted in a combined 17 targets in the last two games sans Odunze – not especially exciting, but Loveland is extremely talented and the kind of player I like to bet on in tourneys, especially if he projects for modest ownership. Kmet at $2,800 makes for a nice straight pivot from the similarly-priced Zaccheaus at what should be significantly less ownership. 

green bay

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• TE Dalton Kincaid finds himself back on the injury report this week, missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a knee injury.
• TE David Njoku (knee) has yet to practice this week for the Browns. It’s looking like another week of increased usage for rookie Harold Fannin, this time coming in a more difficult matchup.
• This game carries the second highest spread of the week, with the Bills currently favored by 10.5 points on the road.
• Harold Fannin and Jerry Jeudy are the only two pass-catchers for the Browns playing near every-down roles, and either could pop if things play out just right. Said another way, maybe, just maybe, they have value in large-field GPPs.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

We know the drill with the Bills at this point. They are going to be methodical and run-focused unless, or until, their opponent forces them away from that stance. The Browns are highly unlikely to force them away from that stance. We also know that the Bills don’t have a single player who operates in a near every-down role. That means two things to us this week: (1) Super Josh is highly unlikely to be summoned, making him a much shakier GPP play, and (2) James Cook has legitimate paths to 25-30 opportunities with the team already in playoff mode, now playing for everything from the No.1 overall seed to the No. 7 seed in the AFC. Finally, the Bills are an offense that doesn’t highlight any one player. That is, unless Super Josh is unleashed.

Cook is averaging 25.4 opportunities per game in 10 wins this season, hitting 29.5 DK points, 36.6 DK points, and 22.7 DK points in their three wins by more than 14 points. The pure rushing matchup is far from perfect against a Browns team holding opposing backfields to 3.9 yards per carry and 21.8 DK points per game in 2025, including a league-average 4.8% explosive run rate allowed. There isn’t much else to talk about here outside of the fact that Cook has a clear path to elite volume in a less-than-ideal matchup. Ty Johnson remains on hand for clear passing duties, while Ray Davis could see additional run should the game get out of hand.

The combination of the matchup and the recent trends shown from the Bills makes it likely we see Jackson Hawes enter a more prominent role in the offense, should Kincaid miss with his knee injury. Hawes made it up to a 70% snap rate the last time Kincaid lost, and the Bills won handily, coming back in Week 13 against the Steelers. No wide receiver played more than 61% of the offensive snaps in that game, making it likely we see  Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Tyrell Shavers, Joshua Palmer, and either Brandin Cooks or Gabe Davis rotating through in what has become a package-based offense. Coleman returned to the team’s good graces in Week 13 after being a healthy inactive the previous two games, but played behind Shavers in the previous three games, interestingly enough. Dawson Knox would enter the primary tight end role and would likely see his snap rate jump to 70-80%, although he saw no more than four targets in the four games missed by Kincaid earlier this season. Again, not a ton to get overly excited about on paper here.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• WR Quentin Johnston was limited x2 through Thursday with the same groin injury that cost him Week 15. WR Tre’ Harris was also limited in both practices this week through Thursday.
• WR CeeDee Lamb has yet to practice this week with an illness, which I have to assume is the same nasty flu that ripped through my house the previous two weeks. I would expect him to go come Sunday.
• Keep an eye on the status of RB Javonte Williams through the weekend. Williams departed the team’s Week 15 loss to the Vikings with a neck injury but return in the second half to finish the game out.
• T Tyler Guyton remains sidelined with an ankle injury.
• CB DaRon Bland has yet to practice this week with a foot injury. The hits keep coming for the Dallas secondary.
• The Chargers are fighting for playoff seeding, with everything from the No. 1 seed to missing the playoffs still on the table.
• The Cowboys need to win their final three games and have the Eagles lose their final three games to reach the postseason.
• Omarion Hampton has seen an opportunity on a ridiculous 66% of his offensive snaps since returning from injury in Week 14. There is significant upside here if his snaps increase after playing on 36% of the team’s offensive snaps or fewer in his first two games back.

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How LOS ANGELES Will Try To Win ::

The Chargers started their season with an extreme emphasis on the pass, ranked at the top of the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) through the first seven weeks. They have cooled off with the pass-heavy nature of their offense in the second half of the season, ranked just 16^th in PROE since Week 8, including games of negative PROE in each of their last three contests since their Week 12 bye. I think it is likelier that we see 40 team rush attempts than 40 pass attempts from Justin Herbert here, with a likeliest scenario leading to 30-32 pass attempts and 30-35 team rush attempts. That is a significant departure from how this team started the season.

Hampton returned from injured reserve in Week 14 and has been held to 36% of the offensive snaps or fewer in two games back, leaving Kimani Vidal to operate in a “lead back-minus” role. That is phrased as it was due to the touch splits between the two backs, with Hampton handling 15 opportunities on 23 offensive snaps in his first game back, to the 15 opportunities on 51 offensive snaps of Vidal. That trend continued last week, with Hampton handling 16 opportunities on 24 offensive snaps to the 13 of Vidal on 42 offensive snaps. It is clear who the lead back is in this backfield, regardless of how many snaps each player is currently playing. That leaves room for upside for Hampton should his snap rate grow at any point, which will likely come without much warning, maybe even as soon as in Week 16 against the Cowboys with the Chargers fighting for playoff seeding. That is also important due to the matchup against a Cowboys team bleeding production on the ground, now yielding 4.5 yards per carry, 26.0 DK points per game, and the third-highest explosive-run rate to opposing backfields this season. Hampton is the more efficient and explosive back of the two, leading the team with 4.59 YPC and a solid 7.4% explosive-run rate. Of particular intrigue are Hampton’s splits behind man/gap concepts, which he runs behind on over half of his carries this season. In that split, Hampton holds a 5.76 YPR mark and a 52% success rate, against which the Cowboys have allowed 4.71 YPC, a 53.5% success rate, and nine of their 13 touchdowns allowed this season. There aren’t many backs priced below 6k this week that carry legitimate 30+ point upside. Hampton is one of them.

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PFP the OWS pennant

The statuses of Quentin Johnston and Tre’ Harris likely bear significant weight to how the Chargers approach this game, in addition to what it would do to the expected target distribution should they miss. Johnston and Harris are the two primary perimeter options in the offense, with Ladd McConkey playing a hybrid role and Keenan Allen primarily a slot option at this point in his career. What we’ve seen in the second half of the season is tight end Oronde Gadsden eating into Allen’s role based on the significant overlap. I would guess we see KeAndre Lambert-Smith entering the starting lineup if both Johnston and Harris miss, so as not to change the established roles of McConkey, Allen, and Gadsden, but it takes some reading of the tea leaves here. In any case, Herbert attempted only 29 and 26 passes in their last two games, both coming in wins and in games with Hampton back in the fold. I would expect a similar structure if two of their top options at wide receiver are out. If both play, the team can operate as it normally would, with the potential for them to still bias their attack to the ground.

HOW DALLAS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• QB Patrick Mahomes’ season ended in Week 15 when he tore his left ACL and LCL. The Chiefs were also eliminated from postseason contention in that same game.
• The Titans have been eliminated from the playoffs for a long while, using these last games to continue their evaluation mode in the midst of a clean rebuild.
• CB Trent McDuffie (knee), WR Rashee Rice (concussion), RT Jawaan Taylor (triceps), and WR Tyquan Thornton (concussion) did not practice for the Chiefs on Wednesday.
• The Titans placed a trio of safeties on injured reserve at the beginning of the week.
• Travis Kelce is an unrestricted free agent following 2025, is getting married in the offseason, and has gone his entire career without missing the playoffs, until this season. He is currently 203 yards shy of reaching his eighth 1,000-yard season and is 99 yards shy of moving into second on the career receiving list at tight end.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

Gardner Minshew will start for the Chiefs for the remainder of the season. He could also be without the player the offense is largely built around against the Titans, with Rashee Rice currently in the league’s concussion protocol. Hollywood Brown missed Week 15 due to a personal matter, and Tyquan Thornton also finds himself in concussion protocol. There is no way of knowing what the rest of the week will hold for the numerous injuries in Kansas City, but things currently look bleak in the middle of the week in their first game of being eliminated from the playoffs since 2014. The Chiefs could realistically be down to Xavier Worthy, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Nikko Remigio at wide receiver, with the potential to add Hollywood Brown if he has worked through his personal matter. It has not been in the Chiefs DNA to shift run-heavy with Mahomes under center, and I would be shocked if they all of a sudden shifted the focus of their offense to a ground-and-pound attack against the Titans, regardless of their current situation. Furthering that notion is a Tennessee defense that has become one of the true pass-funnel units, now handily leading the league in PROE forced/faced.

The Chiefs average just 26.6 team rush attempts per game, lead the league in PROE, and their opponent has forced the highest PROE this season. All roads point to an aerial-based offensive game plan, regardless of their current situation. Furthermore, the backfield reverted to a true timeshare in Week 15, with Isiah Pacheco seeing his largest snap rate since returning from a three-game absence in Week 13. Finally, the team has averaged just 19.33 running back carries their last three times out, and the Titans have held their last three opponents to just 3.2 yards per carry. Not a ton to get excited about here.

Travis Kelce is an unrestricted free agent following 2025, is getting married in the offseason, and has gone his entire career without missing the playoffs, until this season. He will be playing with a backup quarterback and potentially without two wide receivers. Kelce is currently 203 yards shy of reaching his eighth 1,000-yard season and is 99 yards shy of moving into second on the career receiving list at tight end, which would pass Jason Witten. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the offensive game plan revolve around Kelce here, with really no other player on the team chasing meaningful milestones or incentives, particularly if Rice and Thornton are held out with their concussions. Andy Reid is not typically a coach who gives additional attention to milestones or contract incentives, but that has come during a decade-long playoff streak that ended last week, and Kelce could be looking at retirement in the coming months. Furthermore, the Titans placed three safeties on injured reserve this week. Amani Hooker is dealing with an injury and is graded as the 87^th of 98 safeties in coverage this season, and the Titans surrender the 13^th most DK points per game to opposing tight ends this season. And finally, Minshew attempted only five passes in relief of Mahomes last week, but three of them were directed at Kelce while one was a throw-away.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The Jets had several players sitting out practice on Wednesday. S Tony Adams missed with a groin injury, LB Francisco Mauigoa missed with a neck injury, TE Mason Taylor missed with a neck injury, and DL Eric Watts missed with a concussion. 
• The Saints had a handful of offensive starters sit out on Wednesday. RB Alvin Kamara missed with knee, RB Devin Neal missed with a hammy, G Cesar Ruiz missed with an ankle, WR Devaughn Vele missed with a shoulder, and OT Asim Richards missed with an ankle. 
• The Saints have been playing better recently. They’ve won back-to-back games and are looking to finish the season on a high note. 
• Audric Estime and Evan Hull look poised to split the Saints backfield. 
• Chris Olave could see double-digit targets against the worst secondary in the league.
• Juwan Johnson could see a spike in targets with Vele on the shelf. 
• Breece Hall played the least snaps he has seen in over a month last week. He doesn’t look like he wants to be in New York. 
• Brady Cook is going to get another start, even though it’s hard to believe he is the guy who gives the Jets the best chance to win. 
• Adonai Mitchell is the Jets’ clear WR1, but he’ll be catching passes from a QB who belongs on a practice squad.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 3-11 Jets come into Week 16 off a fun 48-20 loss to the Jaguars. The Jets were never in the game, but despite Cook having a relatively poor performance (176 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTS), he did enough to be named the starter for a second consecutive game. This news came early in the week, despite the realistic chance that both Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor will be healthy enough to play. Even if either of them can suit up, they have already been designated as backups. That’s curious, since the NFL is obsessed with playing “whoever gives us the best chance to win.” It seems obvious that Taylor or Fields would be the guy who “gives them the best chance to win,” since both have won a lot of games at the NFL level. Cook has thrown five interceptions in six quarters of action, while getting blown out twice. The Jets also decided to move on from defensive coordinator Steve Wilks after only a 14-game tenure. Aaron Glenn cited a “lack of improvement” week to week as his reason for making the decision. Glenn is a defensive coach, but he has decided to continue focusing on hugging, rather than calling plays, a duty that will be given to defensive backs coach Chris Harris. 

Crash the leaderboards

PFP the OWS pennant

The Jets have been playing fast (No. 7 in seconds per play), but that’s because they’re always losing. They’d like to hide their QB and shorten games, but how they Jets want to play is irrelevant since they fall behind quickly every week. The Jets desperately want to run (32^nd in PROE), but much like their pace numbers, how they want to play doesn’t matter (12^th in pass rate), because they’re always chasing points. The Jets O-line hasn’t helped them run effectively (23^rd ranked by PFF), but they have been improving in pass protection, allowing only six pressures against the Jaguars, good for the fourth-best pass blocking efficiency last week. The Saints have been above average (12^th in DVOA) against the run, and vulnerable (21^st in DVOA) against the pass. It makes sense to throw against the Saints, but the Jets are still going to try and run. Expect the Jets to come out with their typical run-first game plan, before eventually going pass heavy as they chase points. 

HOW NEW ORLEANS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Vikings continue to have issues along the offensive line, with both Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill missing practice on Wednesday. The team likely needs one of those two to play on Sunday, or else they will be starting two backup tackles. Center Ryan Kelly also did not practice on Wednesday.
• New York’s injury list is obviously long, as far as players whose seasons are over on offense, with most of the current injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
• The premier matchup likely to decide how this game ultimately plays out is going to be Brian Flores’ aggressive defense against Jaxson Dart. More specifically, his ability to turn negative plays into positive ones, either through scrambles or deep passing.
• There aren’t a ton of plays that stand out on paper from this one.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The Vikings have been in the middle of the pack in PROE throughout the season, and up until two weeks ago, head coach Kevin O’Connell was doing his rookie quarterback zero favors. We talked a lot about how the structure of the offense placed too much on J.J. McCarthy’s plate, leading to one of the highest downfield throw rates and deepest aDOTs in the league. And then O’Connell finally changed the structure of the offense, simplifying things for his rookie quarterback while, in his words, allowing him to “go play football.” McCarthy’s underlying metrics skyrocketed to a 66.0% completion rate, 8.79 yards per attempt, and a robust 0.82 FP/DB in the previous two games, with a solid 5-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio in that span. For whatever reason, the connection still hasn’t been there when targeting alpha wide receiver Justin Jefferson, with throws either a bit off target or Jefferson himself experiencing mental lapses. To me, and from what I saw on film, those are completely capable of being remedied, and Jefferson is now at his cheapest salary since early in his rookie season at just $6,000. Finally, McCarthy has only 47 pass attempts in the previous two weeks, both coming in wins. He accounted for three touchdowns in both of those games, which were only the second and third times this season he has done so.

The volume on the ground for the Vikings has been entirely dependent on the game environments they have found themselves in this season. Now, consider a strict timeshare between Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, and we’re left with very little upside from a single player here. That said, the Giants continue to bleed production on the ground, ranking dead last in yards allowed per carry and explosive run rate allowed, paving at least a thin path to upside either back. Of note, Mason actually averages more yards per carry and has a slightly higher explosive run rate, in addition to seeing 63.6% of the team’s carries inside the five this season. That said, he has not played more than 36% of the team’s offensive snaps since Week 9 and has not seen more than 11 totes since Week 7. The question then becomes, can either back see enough volume to matter this week?

Another significant change to the structure of the offense over the past two weeks has been a much higher emphasis on 12-personnel, leaving only Jefferson as a near every-down pass catcher. Addison played 67% of the offensive snaps or fewer in consecutive games, Jalen Nailor has been held to 58% or fewer, and T.J. Hockenson is typically going to peak at around 80% of the offensive snaps. Josh Oliver is now up into the 60-65% snap rate range but saw just three combined targets the previous two weeks, two of which were touchdowns in week 14. On paper, it is really on Jefferson for the Vikings, although even his target volume is entirely up to the game environment to decide due to the tendencies of this offense. That means he is best played in conjunction with a member of the Giants, most likely to be Jaxson Dart.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• TE Cade Otton (knee) missed Week 15 after managing a single limited session. It remains to be seen if he will increase his level of activity ahead of Week 16.
• The Panthers are mostly healthy after a late-season, Week 14 bye.
• These two teams are currently tied atop the NFC South at 7-7 and play each other twice in the final three weeks of the regular season, making this game of utmost importance to the playoff hopes of both teams.
• The Panthers are likely to start this one in a run-balanced offensive stance, while the Buccaneers are one of the most reactive teams in the league this season. That makes the likeliest scenario a more muted game environment, although there are paths to upside should the Buccaneers be forced into increased aggression in a must-win game.
• Both backfields are now timeshares, sapping a lot of the upside from all running backs in this game.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The early-season, late-game magic wore off in a hurry for the Buccaneers. Now losers of five of their last six games after starting the season 6-2, Tampa Bay now finds itself tied with the Panthers atop the NFC South at a 7-7 record. A ridiculous nine of 14 games involving the Buccaneers have been decided by seven points or less this season, winning four of the first five one-score games and losing three of the last four such contests. The two sides of the ball are headed in diverging directions as far as health is concerned, with RB Bucky Irving, WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin, and WR Jalen McMillan returning from injury in recent weeks, and CB Zyon McCollum headed to injured reserve and LB SirVocea Dennis and S Tykee Smith dealing with significant injuries. CB Jamel Dean also continues to experience setbacks with his health, now playing through multiple injuries in the last three games after missing Week 12. Head coach Todd Bowles also showed some mental strain following their Week 14 loss to the Falcons, essentially placing the brunt of the blame on the players for not executing in the loss. That highlights some potential cracks in the foundation in Tampa, with these final three weeks likely to influence the franchise’s direction in the looming offseason. The Buccaneers have been one of the most game environment-dependent teams this season, as far as offensive structure and play calling tendencies are concerned, typically taking the game as it comes. In other words, they are largely not responsible for being the source of ignition for game environments in 2025, but are more than capable of contributing to them.

The return of Irving for Week 13 has left the backfield with clearly delineated roles. Irving is the primary early-down back, Rachaad White is the primary change of pace and clear passing down option, and Sean Tucker is the preferred short-yardage back. The latter is potentially the most important distinction here, as Tucker has every carry inside the five since Irving returned three games ago, leaving Irving with a middling 13.5 XFP/G in that span. Furthermore, and as has been the case throughout 2025, Irving’s efficiency has taken a massive hit as compared to his breakout 2024 campaign, averaging only 3.67 YPC since returning from injury and 3.47 YPC on the season. Finally, Irving has been held to between 49% and 54% of the offensive snaps in all three games post-injury. The Panthers are now a middling matchup on the ground, allowing 4.4 YPC behind 2.51 yards before contact per attempt.

The return of Mike Evans was a sight to behold, with the veteran immediately returning to the alpha role through the air. He played only 55% of the offensive snaps in his first full game since Week 3 but saw 10 targets on 26 routes (65% route participation), catching six for 132 yards. Also notable was the fact that rookie Emeka Egbuka saw his involvement in the offense nerfed in the first game all season with a healthy Evans and Chris Godwin, running on a route on only 55% of the team’s called pass plays. That came with an elite 0.32 TPRR, but the dip in time on the field with the other two primary contributors back is noteworthy. Godwin was in a route at a team-leading 92.5% frequency, but it came with a lowly 3.8 aDOT last week, making him a shakier bet in GPPs than most box score-watchers will assume. The injury to tight end Cade Otton is also far less likely to influence the structure of this offense, as we’ve seen him largely absent from the offensive game plan when the primary pass-catchers have been healthy for the previous two-plus seasons. Evans (0.32 TPRR) and Egbuka (0.29) have been the primary options for the Buccaneers against single-high, which the Panthers find themselves in at an elevated 55.3% frequency due to their robust Cover-3 utilization (second highest in the league at 41.0%).

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• WR Tee Higgins (concussion) got in a limited session on Wednesday, although I would still be shocked if he played this week after two concussions in two calendar weeks.
• TE Noah Fant was sidelined on Wednesday with an ankle injury, while TE Drew Sample was limited with a neck injury. Something to monitor.
• Rookie QB Quinn Ewers will start under center for the Dolphins after Tua Tagovailoa was benched.
•  The chances of this game environment completely taking off are rather slim, considering the Dolphins will be starting a seventh-round rookie quarterback, meaning the bulk of my exposure from this game will likely be of the one-off or mini-correlation variety.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The pressers out of Cincinnati this week have been difficult to watch, in all honesty. Ja’Marr Chase said something to the effect of, “What we’re doing now isn’t working,” when asked if he would make any changes in the coming offseason after another down year. Quarterback Joe Burrow said something to the effect of, “I need to make this fun again,” when asked about his focus during the final three games of the season. Players are unhappy, fans are unhappy, damn, I’m unhappy. This team has so much potential, and it seems like the one change that could catapult them into serious contenders is the one that is least likely to happen this offseason: moving on from Zac Taylor. I have been hyper-critical of a few situations and teams in recent years – the Cardinals, Drew Petzing, and Kyler Murray, Kevin O’Connell and J.J. McCarthy, Tua Tagovailoa on the other side of this game, and Taylor and these Bengals all come to mind. If I were in charge in Cincinnati, I would fire Taylor and build this team up from the inside-out, moving Trey Hendrickson to kickstart that endeavor with heavy emphasis on the offensive line. But here we are, left with another season of “what could have been” for the Bengals. Reports surfaced today (literally, can’t make this stuff up) that Taylor was handed a “secret extension” after the 2023 season, which secured his services through the 2027 season. Yay, us. How will the Bengals try to win? The same way they have tried to win for the previous five seasons, with a vanilla offense that aims to generate one-on-one situations for their primary skill position players, an unimaginative run game behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and a need to outscore every opponent they face because their defense is historically bad. The one bright spot in a sea of darkness on that side of the football has been second-year cornerback DJ Turner.

Since Taylor’s “game plans” consist of doing the same thing every week, we have a pretty good idea of what the backfield will look like against the Dolphins. Chase Brown is going to play 60-65% of the offensive snaps and see 12-15 carries; his pass game utilization will be dependent on the game environment and pressure, and Samaje Perine will operate as the change of pace, clear passing down, and two-minute back. Those two will be running behind an offensive line generating only 1.87 yards before contact per attempt, which has yielded just 4.1 yards per carry as a team, including just 3.6 yards per carry over their previous three games. The Dolphins face the fourth highest rush rate over expectation, but it would utterly shock me to see the Bengals leave Week 16 with a negative PROE after doing so just four times all season. Finally, the Bengals average the third fewest rush attempts per game at 21.1.

Tee Higgins returned to a limited session on Wednesday after suffering his second concussion in two calendar weeks in Week 14. I find it highly unlikely that he plays this week, leaving the Bengals with Andre Iosivas, Mitchell Tinsley, Charlie Jones, and a four-headed tight end monster as their expected primary pass-catchers. That completely changes if Higgins somehow finds his way to the active game-day roster, but I simply don’t think that will be the case. Why risk a player you recently handed a massive contract to in a lost season, after suffering two concussions in a two-week span? Makes zero sense to me, but we’ve seen the Bengals do dumber stuff, so who knows? No Bengals tight end has played more than 60% of the team’s offensive snaps since Week 7, and the only way I see that changing is if both Drew Sample and Noah Fant miss this week. Fant missed practice on Wednesday, while Sample was limited. As we said ahead of last week’s contest, Chase carries legitimate 15+ target upside any time Higgins misses a contest, and he proceeded to notch a solid 16-target game against the Ravens. That would be the case this week, should Higgins remain sidelined.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• This game has massive playoff implications for the AFC as it is a matchup between the current #1 and #3 seeds.
• Jacksonville has scored 25 or more points in every game since their Week 8 bye and is averaging 33 points per game during that stretch.
• Travis Etienne Jr. is coming off a career game and rookie Bhayshul Tuten underwent finger surgery, leaving Etienne in a massive workhorse role.
• Denver has won 11 straight games after a shaky 1-2 start, with nine of their last 10 games being decided by one possession.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars have become one of the league’s hottest teams and are coming off a scorched-earth performance against the Jets in which they scored 48 points and had their highest yardage total of the season. Jacksonville had an embarrassing game in Europe prior to their Week 8 bye against the Rams, but has been unstoppable since then. Jacksonville has at least 25 points in each of their seven games since their bye, averaging 33 points during that stretch. The reality, however, is that their schedule has been relatively soft in recent weeks and this week in Denver they will take a huge step up in competition. 

The Jaguars offense under head coach Liam Coen has really come together of late, as evidenced by the aforementioned stats. Coen’s offenses always have a heavy emphasis on the backfield and Travis Etienne Jr. has emerged as the clear lead running back of this offense in recent weeks. He should play a massive role in this game as rookie Bhayshul Tuten is out for multiple weeks with a hand injury. The matchup is tough, but Etienne will be heavily involved in both the running game and passing game. Mid-season acquisition Jakobi Meyers (who just signed a three-year contract extension) has helped this team find their identity. Meyers is an adept route runner with great hands and excels in the intermediate areas of the field and on in-breaking routes. His acquisition has clearly made quarterback Trevor Lawrence more comfortable and opens up a lot of concepts in Coen’s offense. Jacksonville also got explosive second year wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. back a couple of weeks ago and his skill set appears to be a great complement to Meyers. BTJ had a couple of big plays downfield against the Colts in Week 14 while scoring a touchdown last week against the Jets. 

This week will be a huge step up for the Jaguars offense as they face an elite Denver defense on their home turf. The Jacksonville opponents in recent weeks have been weak units of the Jets, Titans, and Cardinals along with a showdown with an injury depleted Colts unit. Denver ranks 6th in both pass defense and run defense DVOA, while leading the league in QB pressure rate. Trevor Lawrence is coming off a career game, but still has a lot to prove in terms of being able to get it done in big spots against top teams. The Jaguars have been putting the ball in his hands and rank 5th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the last four weeks. This week the focus will be on establishing a semblance of a running game and getting the ball out of his hands quickly. Denver’s elite secondary loves to lock down in man coverage, so we could see the passing game flowing through Etienne and tight end Brenton Strange at a higher rate than normal. Ultimately the scheme of Jacksonville’s offense should provide some opportunity for them to move the ball and make plays, but they will have to win one-on-one matchups both at the line of scrimmage and downfield to do so.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• Atlanta has had a disappointing season, but their coaching staff is still fighting for their jobs and they have been very competitive most of the season, with four of their last five losses being very close games.
• Kirk Cousins and Kyle Pitts are coming off huge games against the Bucs, while the team hopes to have wide receiver Drake London back after a month-long absence.
• Arizona’s defense has allowed 40+ points in four of their last six games, while allowing the third highest yards per play during the last month.
• The Cardinals backfield continues to rack up injuries, leaving Michael Carter as their primary back for this game as the team rides a league-leading pass rate with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

The Falcons had a fun game last Thursday night in Tampa Bay as quarterback Kirk Cousins turned in a vintage performance and picked apart the Bucs defense. However, the Falcons offense is built primarily around their running game and all world talent Bijan Robinson. Atlanta has the fourth lowest pass rate relative to expectation in the league since the start of November and ranks seventh in that statistic for the season. The Falcons are hoping to get their top wide receiver, Drake London, back from a multi-week absence due to a knee injury and are coming off their passing game’s best outing of the season, but we should expect their focus in this one to once again begin with their running game against an Arizona defense that has given up nearly 400 rushing yards over the last two weeks. The Cardinals are bottom-3 in the league in adjusted line yards allowed per rush attempt and PFF run defense grade, while grading out as the worst tackling unit in the NFL. Texans practice squad call-up Jawhar Jordan ran for over 100 yards last week in two and a half quarters, so it is safe to assume that Bijan Robinson and, to a lesser extent, Tyler Allgeier, will have no trouble slicing through the Cardinals “defense”.

When Atlanta does take to the air, we can expect London, Robinson, and tight end Kyle Pitts to see the majority of the targets. Speedy wide receiver Darnell Mooney is not the type of receiver built for high volume or certain types of routes, so we can expect him to see a few targets in this one but his role to be more of a field stretcher and afterthought. Assuming London is back and fully healthy, he is going to be a problem for the Cardinals secondary as he was torching everyone prior to his injury. Meanwhile, Pitts is playing the best football of his career and turning into the player he was envisioned as when he was drafted (just in time for free agency). Should London be ruled out, David Sills appears to be the trusted receiver that replaces his role while Pitts becomes an elite target earner and clear favorite of Cousins. The passing game discussion would not be complete without mentioning Bijan Robinson, who is dynamic in the passing game and should be given chances in space against a Cardinals team that tries to funnel targets to the shorter areas of the field. Bijan has six or more targets in half of his games, and this sets up as a spot where he is used in that capacity once again. All three of the Falcons primary offensive weapons – Pitts, Bijan, and London – work best in the areas where Arizona is most vulnerable. Atlanta should be able to do everything they like to do offensively and have a lot of success doing it in this matchup.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• This game should have a playoff atmosphere as the Steelers try to maintain their lead in the AFC North and the Lions try to keep hope alive for a playoff spot.
• Pittsburgh is playing on a short week after their Monday night victory over the Dolphins, while the Lions play next Thursday against the Vikings.
• Detroit’s defense gave up 519 yards to the Rams last week as their injury-ravaged defense struggles to compete.
• The Steelers continue to use a backfield by committee, with Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell both maintaining large roles in the offense.
• Lions games have once again become a source of high scoring and offensive production as their offense becomes more explosive and their defense has their depth challenged.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

After a win over the Dolphins on Monday night, the Steelers still have a one-game lead in the AFC North over the Ravens with a game against the Browns next week prior to a rematch with Baltimore in the season finale. Baltimore, on the other hand, faces the Patriots on Sunday night this week and travels to Lambeau Field to face the Packers on Saturday of Week 17. Considering the difficulty of those matchups for Baltimore and the fact that Pittsburgh should be strong favorites against the Browns, this game is a huge opportunity for the Steelers as they could potentially have the division wrapped up prior to the season’s final week. Their current one-game lead means going 2-0 over the next two weeks along with one Ravens loss will seal things.

The Steelers have operated in an efficient and functional manner offensively this year, but have lacked explosive plays for most of the season. There was a period during the middle of the season where downfield passing was basically non-existent, although that trend was broken in their win over the Ravens as DK Metcalf made multiple big plays and Aaron Rodgers took some calculated shots. Aaron Rodgers ranks dead last in the NFL in intended air yards per pass attempt, which shows just how conservative things have been. Pittsburgh ranks 12th in pass rate over expectation for the season, and 10th in the last month, but the nature of those passes is such that we can see how their approach is primarily on a “death by a thousand paper cuts” approach that moves the ball a few yards at a time. The Steelers approach focuses on eliminating negative plays, giving themselves manageable third downs, and relying on Rodgers to be efficient in those high leverage situations. 

Pittsburgh’s running game is middling, as they have a league average offensive line in adjusted line yards, success rate, and win-rate. They split their backfield work between Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell pretty evenly, with Warren taking the majority of the carries while Gainwell is a prominent part of the passing game. Over the last five games, Warren has 58 carries compared to 41 for Gainwell while Gainwell has averaged over six targets per game during that time. The Steelers use four tight ends, with Darnell Washington leading them in snaps due to his size and blocking ability, while Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth rotate in more active receiving roles and Connor Heyward is primarily the “tush-push guy”. Finally, in the receivers room the only consistent production has come from Metcalf. Youngsters Calvin Austin III and Roman Wilson have been disappointing, while late-season veteran additions Adam Thielen and  Marquez Valdes-Scantling appear to be working themselves into bigger roles for the master of trust issues. 

This week the Steelers have a matchup with a Lions team that is one of the best offenses in the league and plays an aggressive style of defense. The Lions profile as a strong run defense, as they hold opponents to only four yards per rush attempt, and are dealing with multiple key injuries in their secondary. The secondary issues are something that Pittsburgh will have to make themselves a bit uncomfortable to exploit. We should expect the Steelers to open things up through the air a bit more than usual in this matchup as they will know they need points to pull off this road upset and Metcalf may be able to play “bully ball” against this secondary. The Lions are near the league lead in man coverage rate and Metcalf can win those one-on-one situations. Expect a healthy dose of Metcalf in this spot, along with the regular approach of heavily involving the running backs and using the tight ends in their usual roles.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• This is a matchup between arguably the league’s worst offense (Las Vegas) and the best defense (Houston).
• Houston has won seven of their last eight games, while the Raiders are on an eight game losing streak.
• Raiders QB Geno Smith was a full participant in practice Wednesday after missing Week 15, setting the stage for him to return to the lineup in this daunting matchup.
• The Texans have some injuries in their backfield and on defense that will need to be monitored prior to Sunday.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders are in the midst of a lost season with a roster that simply does not work. Las Vegas has lost eight straight and has a 2-12 record with only three weeks left in the season. The Raiders have scored over 20 points only three times in 14 games, while averaging only 10.7 points per game over the last six weeks and averaging a putrid 192 yards from scrimmage during that stretch. For reference, the worst offense outside of Las Vegas is the Titans who average 250 yards per game. Said another way, the Raiders offense over the last six weeks has been 25% worse than the next worst offense in the NFL. This week they face the Texans defense, who ranks second in the NFL in defensive DVOA, third in yards per play allowed, and first in scoring defense. Houston has held 10 of 14 opponents below 300 total yards and 12 of 14 opponents to 20 points or less. The dire outlook for the Raiders is highlighted by their 12-point team total while playing in a dome, something that I can’t remember ever seeing.

The scary thing about the offensive ineptitude of the Raiders is that they have spent massive draft capital the last two seasons on their offensive skill players, selecting both RB Ashton Jeanty and TE Brock Bowers in the top-10 of their respective drafts. Both players are plenty talented and capable, but the team’s dysfunction is not to be overcome. The Raiders have the worst offensive line in the league and are unable to protect the quarterback or open holes in the running game. They rank 31st in adjusted line yards per carry and have allowed the most sacks in the league. The Texans defense ranks 9th in the league in sacks despite a relatively blitz rate thanks to elite play from their defensive front and a lock-down secondary that gives QBs very few options. The Texans are a defense that makes moving the ball very difficult on a down-to-down basis and makes offenses work for every yard. The Raiders are an offense that struggles on a down-to-down basis and averages the fewest plays per game in the league thanks to their inability to sustain drives. This section of our breakdowns is usually about how teams will try to win, but survival is a better term for the Raiders this week with very little chance of doing so.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the Patriots visiting the Ravens for a 48.5 total game with Baltimore favored by a field goal. The spread looks odd to me at first glance. The Patriots are 11-3 with one of the best point differentials in the NFL, while the Ravens are 7-7 and currently not in the playoffs if the season ended today. If they win, the Ravens playoff odds go up to roughly 50%, while if they lose, their odds dip to around 25% – safe to say this game is important for Baltimore! What’s weird is the Patriots have an implied team total of just 22.75 points – a total they have surpassed in every single game from Week 4 onwards. Meanwhile, the Ravens have a team total of 25.75. Lamar Jackson hasn’t reached that since back in Week 10. Something about these totals just feels a bit weird to me. It’s true that Baltimore’s defense looked really good last week while shutting out the Bengals, but keep in mind they gave up 27 to Pittsburgh and 32 to Cincinnati in the two weeks before that – they’ve definitely looked better as the season has gone on and they’ve gotten healthier, but they aren’t exactly some elite D and they’ve largely been stopping weak offenses. The Patriots are anything but weak. Personally, I think this game should be somewhere between a pick’em and New England as a short road favorite, but that’s just me, and your mileage may vary.

BALTIMORE

The Ravens backfield is largely about Derrick Henry (despite Rasheen Ali stealing a touchdown last week). Henry plays modest snaps, rarely breaking much above the mid-60% range, but he piles up touches when on the field. Last game he put up 100 yards on just 11 carries as the Bengals were held scoreless – that was a very bizarre game script – but otherwise Henry has gotten 20+ touches in every win or competitive loss going all the way back to Week 6. His passing game involvement is extremely minimal, with 20 targets on the year and only 5 games of over 10 receiving yards, so he needs to get to at least the 100-yard bonus or a touchdown to really have any chance of being in optimal lineups. The Patriots D has routinely stifled opposing running backs until James Cook went bananas on them last week, but Milton Williams being out has been a big, big deal and they’ve really struggled since. Henry is a solid on-paper play who is always a bit fragile due to his price and touchdown dependency, but it’s at least possible his ownership will be lower than it “should” be due to the perceived difficult matchup, which is not actually as difficult as it appears. RB2 Keaton Mitchell has seen an increased role with Justice Hill on IR with a season-high 39% snap share last week. He benefited from the blowout, but he’ll be on the field a bit and has 5+ opportunities in three straight games and four of their last five – he’s an explosive runner who at least has a shot at finding a ceiling on limited work and is a viable cheap RB option. Rasheen Ali has also been seeing a little bit of work lately: 4 carries in Week 13, 1 carry and 3 targets in Week 14, and then 0 carries and 2 targets in Week 15. His role is significantly smaller than Hill’s used to be, but he’s at least worthy of being in the “MME punt play” pool. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, we know the deal with the Ravens. It’s Zay Flowers and a merry-go-round at wide receiver. Rashod Bateman is back after missing a game and should resume the WR2 role, which should send Devontez Walker back to a small part-time role. Flowers and Bateman are basically the full-time guys with DeAndre Hopkins, Tylan Wallace, Walker, and perhaps LaJohntay Wester all playing handfuls of snaps. On a low-passing volume offense, you’re just hunting for touchdowns with all of the tertiary guys. I’d view them all as low-floor dart throws and would max 1 all of them. Flowers very rarely finds true ceiling performances, only reaching 20 DK points twice on the season, as this offense just doesn’t generate a lot of passing volume, and his red zone role is minuscule (just 8 red zone targets all year and only 3 inside the 10-yard line). His brand name tends to lead to him being overowned compared to his likelihood of being in winning lineups. He’s a good player and does have a real ceiling. I just think his ownership is going to significantly exceed his likelihood of finding that ceiling, and at $9k, he’s too expensive for me. To be clear: I will be playing Flowers, I will just be underweight his projected ownership in flex spots (but I do think he’s an interesting captain option, as when he booms, he can really boom). Bateman has a much lower target share but a solid red zone role, and at $3,400, he’s reasonable as a value option.

Where I’m really interested, though, is the tight ends. After dudding last week against Cincinnati (sigh), the Ravens tight end duo of Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely gets another great matchup against a Patriots defense that, while not the Bengals, has been an above-average matchup for TEs all season. Andrews has overall upside in volume, yardage, and the best red zone role of any Baltimore pass catcher, and at $5,400, he’s priced around kickers who he has significantly more ceiling than. Likely is more of a between-the-20s guy, and when his price gets close to Andrews (they’re only $1k apart in this one), I prefer Mark by a significant margin. Likely’s a great player, but the volume just doesn’t justify a $4,400 price when Andrews is $5,400. Likely still belongs in player pools, he’s a very reasonable play (and a better play than all the tertiary Baltimore WRs), but I just like Andrews more. Charlie Kolar can also be included as a dart throw.

NEW ENGLAND

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 16 closes out with the 49ers visiting the Colts. This game has a 46.5 total with San Francisco favored by 3, and as we saw last week, even without a quarterback, this Colts team is still dangerous…or at least they have a solid defense that was able to contain the Seahawks for most of the game. Except now Sauce Gardner is out. And the 49ers offense is much better than Seattle’s. The Colts started the year as the hottest team in the league, going 8-2 in their first 10 games, but have since dropped four straight and lost their starting quarterback for the year. Then they lost their backup quarterback. Now they’ve signed Philip Rivers, who is a literal grandfather. Oh boy. I think Indy’s in trouble here.

INDIANAPOLIS

The Colts are going to try to ride Jonathan Taylor and their defense as best they can. Taylor played 85% of the snaps last week and handled a massive 25 carries (2nd most of the year) to go along with 4 targets. Game script favored him there, of course, as Indy played from ahead for most of the game, but my gut feeling is that they won’t go pass-happy in this one unless they’re down by a lot and it’s quite late. Despite everything, the Colts still have a small chance at making it into the playoffs, and so they’re going to play for that, and the clearest path for success is on the ground via JT. Expect him to handle a massive workload, with the challenge, of course, being whether the Colts can actually score any offensive points. Taylor is still at a premium price, and people are going to want to play CMC and Purdy over him, I think, which should keep his ownership down – he’s risky, but every Colt is risky right now. JT definitely still has a ceiling, though, and makes for an interesting tournament option. Behind JT, Ameer Abdullah is in the RB2 role. Abdullah saw his highest workload of the season last week with 4 carries and 5 targets (!) against a previous high of just 3 opportunities. It’s unclear if this will be sticky at all, but if the QB switch leads to more passing game involvement for Abdullah (and Rivers has always loved his RBs in the passing game), there’s some tournament juice here. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Colts are running out Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce for just about every snap while Josh Downs plays in 11 personnel sets. Downs played 72% of the snaps last week, the most he’s played all season, and with the 49ers pass rush looking extremely mediocre, we could well see another elevated rate of 11 personnel from Indy.  We also need to look at Rivers himself a bit. He’s 44 years old and hasn’t played in the league in literally years. He is, in fact, a grandpa. Old Man Rivers might sound like the name of a Scooby Doo villain, but it fits. He actually played reasonably well last week as a game manager, completing 67% of his passes, but he only averaged 4.4 yards per pass attempt. That’s the lowest in the NFL by a WIDE margin – next lowest is Dillon Gabriel at 5.1, and I’m not sure if you were aware, but Gabriel has not exactly been considered a good NFL QB this year. All of this is to say, I don’t think that Rivers is likely to attack deep. We’re likely to see a lot of short passing, which somewhat nukes Alec Pierce, who has the highest aDOT on the team. I just don’t think Rivers can hit him deep. If we look at the target distribution last week against Seattle, Tyler Warren had 6 targets, Pittman, Downs, and Abdullah each had 5, JT had 4, and Pierce had 1. Pierce is overpriced but is also likely to go very low owned – very risky given Rivers’ limitations, but viable in tournaments. Pittman is the epitome of “fine” – his price is reasonable, he’s a reasonable play. Downs is my favorite wide receiver option, given his discounted $5,600 price, and if he continues to play 70%+ of the snaps, he looks like a bargain.

Then, at tight end, Warren is my favorite overall Colts pass catcher. I think he’s a solid bet to lead the team in targets again, but his salary is only the 3rd highest out of the 4 main pass catchers. He’s my guy. Mo Alie-Cox will play a little bit of TE2 and can be considered as a very thin punt option, but on an extremely limited passing offense, he’s suuuuper thin. 

SAN FRANCISCO