XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 14 kicks off with the Cowboys visiting the Lions for a huge 54.5 total game with Detroit favored by 3. The huge news, of course, is whether or not Amon-Ra St. Brown will play. He’s questionable, I’d guess more on the doubtful side, but the Lions did rule out Kalif Raymond yesterday without ruling out ARSB, which implies they’re thinking there’s at least a chance he can play. Especially with Raymond out, if ARSB misses, it spreads a lot of additional opportunity around. I’m going to write this as if he misses, but I’ll touch on below how to think through the Lions if he plays as well. The Lions are also a team expected to contend for the Super Bowl, and at 7-5, they’re in danger of missing the playoffs entirely, so they’re going to be going all-out here. 

DETROIT

On the Lions side, they’ve really been turning the backfield over to Jahmyr Gibbs, who has played his three highest snap counts of the season in the last three games, playing between 70-74% of the snaps and handling 20, 27, and 24 opportunities. The knock on Gibbs has always been about volume. As in the past, he’s rarely reached the magic 20 touch mark we prefer to see from our running backs in fantasy, but he’s gotten there five times this season overall and in each of the last three games, which is a good sign. With Detroit desperately needing this win, I’d expect them to lean heavily on Gibbs, and that’s doubly true if ARSB misses. Dallas’ run D is significantly better with the trade addition of Quinten Williams, but it’s still not great, and Gibbs is talented enough to smash in any matchup, plus he gets a lot of receiving work. I’m not sweating the matchup, and Gibbs deserves to be the most expensive skill position player in this game. With Gibbs surging, poor David Montgomery is getting left behind a bit with opportunity counts of 7, 8, and 10 in those three games that Gibbs has seen his snap count spike. Given that Monty has 10+ touches in all other games except one this year, that’s a material decrease in his workload. Combined with his price being at 7,000, one of the highest points in the season, it’s hard to get excited about Monty here. You’re playing him for what I’d expect to be modest ownership and the hope that perhaps with no ARSB the Lions line up Gibbs more as a receiver while having both backs on the field, though in real life that happens quite rarely (and we didn’t see it last week once ARSB got hurt, either). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, we can expect Jameson Williams and Isaac TeSlaa to be full-time players with Tom Kennedy filling in a part-time role. Jamo just set career highs in catches and yards last week with no ARSB and would again be a smash play here, priced up only to $8,400 and in one of the best possible matchups. His profile makes him volatile, but he’s just way too cheap for his role sans ARSB – expect massive ownership, but he’s a strong play regardless. TeSlaa and Kennedy are both a bit shakier. Last week, TeSlaa saw just 2 targets and Kennedy saw 4, and it’s a good reminder that sometimes when a primary guy gets hurt, most of the missing volume just gets spread around the remaining primary guys instead of backups taking on big roles. That’s certainly possible, and I view both of these guys as volatile. They’ll be on the field a lot, but that isn’t a guarantee that they’ll be earning targets. They’re still both cheap with TeSlaa at $4k and Kennedy at $2k, so at least they haven’t been priced up too much, and of course, the matchup is just about perfect. Between the two, I’d prefer TeSlaa, though Kennedy does have some floor to his game – he was the direct fill-in for ARSB, so he ran short, high catch rate routes with an 8-yard aDOT, while TeSlaa has more per-target upside with a 15.8 yard aDOT, albeit far fewer targets. My expectation, though, is that with a week to prepare for life without ARSB and Raymond that TeSlaa has more involvement – he’s a very talented rookie who Detroit should see as a key part of their future, while Kennedy is an undrafted free agent who’s been in a bench or practice squad role on the team for years but is really “just a guy.” Consider TeSlaa a legitimate, all-around ceiling play, while Kennedy is more of a solid floor but perhaps questionable ceiling value option.

At tight end without Brock Wright and with Sam LaPorta still hurt, Ross Dwelley stepped into a large role, playing 75% of the offensive snaps while Anthony Firkser played 24%. Wright was reported as likely dealing with a long-term injury, so even though he’s listed as questionable, I’d guess he’s much more like doubtful, and I’d be surprised if he plays. When LaPorta went out, Wright saw significant passing game involvement, with 7 and 4 targets. But last week, we only saw Dwelley get 3 targets while Firkser had 1. Still, though, I’d actually guess Dwelley’s likeliest outcome is pretty close to Kennedy’s, but I’d also guess that limited output last week may result in projections significantly favoring Kennedy and thus ownership being much on him as well. If Kennedy projects for high ownership and Dwelley for low, I’d flip those two in my personal exposures. 

DALLAS

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Seahawks are near full strength as they continue their bid for an NFC West divisional title.
• WR Drake London has missed both practices this week after missing the previous two games with a knee injury. It appears he is headed for a third consecutive absence.
• This is quite possibly the worst matchup in the league for a Falcons team led by Kirk Cousins, with the Seahawks allowing the fourth-fewest yards per carry against outside zone runs (3.19) and the Falcons utilizing outside zone concepts on over 60% of their team carries this season.
• There are very few paths to elite fantasy scoring from this game considering the likeliest outcome and current state of each team.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How SEATTLE Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks are one of the most efficient offenses in the league, averaging 6.0 yards per play (fourth), 29.2 points per game (third), and 352.5 yards per game (ninth). They back that up with a defense allowing the sixth-fewest yards per game (289.4) and the third-fewest points per game (18.1), typically operating with slow pace of play, elevated play action rates, and an extreme emphasis on Jaxon Smith-Njigba through the air. Those tendencies have resulted in low play volume (25^th-ranked 58.5 plays per game) and moderate average time of possession (18^th-ranked 29:34), mostly because they are so good an generating explosive plays through the air (first in explosive pass rate). The Falcons have played the second-highest rate of Cover-3 this season, leading to the second-highest rate of single high. Quarterback Sam Darnold ranks second in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, has the second-deepest aDOT, and highest fantasy points per dropback (FP/DB) against Cover-3 this season. We should expect extreme efficiency and moderate play volume from the Seahawks here.

While it’s true Kenneth Walker has taken on an increased role since the team’s Week 8 bye, I’m not sure it is yet enough to matter. Really the only things that are above average from a fantasy perspective are his 7.7% explosive-run rate and a slight bump to his green-zone role, having accounted for 62.5% of the team’s opportunities inside the five in that span. Even so, he has just one rushing touchdown to the three of Zach Charbonnet since Week 9 on a lowly 1.5% touchdown rate. That profile makes it difficult to return an elite fantasy score considering Walker is averaging only 13 carries per game in the last five and has not seen more than four targets in that span, having also eclipsed 100 yards just once this season. Charbonnet will remain involved in a “change-of-pace-plus” role, including key usage in the red zone. 

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JSN against single-high this season: 0.29 targets per route run (TPRR), 27.6% target rate, 3.73 yards per route run (YPRR), 36.8% first-read target rate, and 0.79 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR). Those marks rank in the top three in the league across the board, and his 13.0-yard aDOT against single-high highlights the upside he carries on a per-target basis in this spot. That said, Darnold has not attempted more than 33 passes in a win this season, averaging just 24.8 pass attempts per game in wins. It is fair to question total expected volume considering the Seahawks are currently instilled as 7.0-point road favorites. Recent addition Rashid Shaheed has not played more than 56% of the team’s offensive snaps in his four games in Seattle, with veteran Cooper Kupp continuing to run as the clear WR2. Tight end AJ Barner has become a near every-down player at the position, with Elijah Arroyo, Robbie Ouzts, and Nick Kallerup contributing to one of the higher 12-personnel rates in the league. The combination of a spread offense behind JSN and low expected pass volume leaves little upside for the secondary options through the air.

HOW ATLANTA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• This is a matchup between the two worst offenses in the league.
• The Titans are the worst overall team in football. Cam Ward hasn’t moved the needle, but he also hasn’t received much help.
• The Titans coaching staff looks more willing to let Ward go than they were to start the season.
• Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are the definition of a split backfield.
• The Browns don’t want to throw the ball any more than is necessary to win. Harold Fannin is the only player seeing schemed usage in the passing game. 
• Quinshon Judkins is highly likely to see over 20 opportunities.
• The Browns defense is one of the best options on the slate.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How Tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The 1-11 Titans come into Week 14 looking to “earn” back-to-back first overall picks. That’s never a good thing since it means last season’s first overall pick didn’t move the needle. That appears to be the case with Cam Ward, as it’s hard to find an objective metric that doesn’t measure the Titans as the worst overall team in football. They have a massive negative 158-point differential, which is nearly 30 points worse than the second-to-last team (Raiders). They’ve scored a pathetic 170 points (last in the league) and, unlike their opponents, they’re also a sieve on defense. The Titans have given up a laughable 338 points, which, among AFC teams, is only better than the Bengals historically bad defense. The Titans are about what you would get if you combined the Browns offense with the Bengals defense… think about that for a second.

The Titans have been playing at a moderate pace (17^th in seconds per play) but are even slower than that when the game is close, which is rarely beyond halftime. They try to play balanced (16^th in PROE) but end up extremely pass heavy (1^st in pass rate) because they’re always chasing points. They seem to have said, “F it! Let’s chuck it!” And have started to throw more generally (9^th in PROE over their last four games). The Titans might as well let Ward play through his mistakes and try to figure out the NFL. It’s a lost season, where their best outcome is losing for better draft capital. Their offensive line is terrible (27th-ranked by PFF). They’re weak everywhere except guard, and they’re going to struggle to protect Ward in this matchup. The Browns defense has been stingy against the run (2nd in DVOA) and tough against the pass (5th in DVOA). There are a clear top five defenses by DVOA this season. They are: the Texans // Seahawks // Broncos // Browns // Rams. Those five are head and shoulders above the league. There is no easy way to move the ball against Cleveland, which excels at preventing yards and has a ferocious pass rush. The Titans might as well try to pass, but it isn’t likely to produce points. They have a pathetic team total and the over feels square.

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• QB Jayden Daniels upgraded to a full participant in Thursday’s practice, indicating he could return against the Vikings after missing the previous three games.
• WR Noah Brown (IR, groin/knee) practiced in full in both practices through Thursday and appears ready to return for his first game since Week 2.
• RB Aaron Jones (shoulder) was limited in both practices so far this week and should continue to play through injury, something he has done for much of the season.
• QB J.J. McCarthy practiced in full on consecutive days, indicating he is likely to return from one missed game due to a concussion.
• This game carries an intriguing upside case. I’ll leave it at that here and let you experience the journey below.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How WASHINGTON Will Try To Win ::

There is a lot to unpack with the exploration of how the Commanders are likely to approach this game, largely influenced by the numerous changes in personnel we expect in Week 14. I’m going to write this one up as if Daniels returns from injury, Terry McLaurin sees a slight uptick in involvement in his second game back, and Brown makes his first appearance since Week 2. Within that structure of expectations, the next thing to consider are the defensive tendencies from Flores’ Minnesota defense, who lead the league in blitz rate (43.8%) and two-high utilization (66.4%). The Commanders have been mostly unable to establish any consistent trends due to the multitude of injuries they have dealt with this season, but the general structure of a Kliff Kingsbury offense involves horizontally spread concepts, quick passing mixed with man/gap rush concepts on the ground, and situational downfield passing within the flow of the game. Pair those tendencies with the tendencies from the Minnesota defense and we should see the quick passing game utilized as an extension of the run, with those same downfield attempts within the flow and structure of the game.

The Washington backfield has been a modicum of mediocrity for much of the season, at least as far as the fantasy value is concerned, with no back emerging as the clear lead option amongst Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremey McNichols, and Chris Rodriguez. Of note there is that JCM has been largely filtered out of the offense with Rodriguez the primary early-down back and McNichols functioning as the clear passing down and two-minute back the previous two games. A Kingsbury offense is always going to prioritize the run, meaning it should come as no surprise that the offense is averaging the third-most rush yards per game this season (138.9) while averaging 4.9 yards per carry. However, it’s just that the production is now split between four primary players – the three backs and Daniels.

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Let’s bring the attention back to the matchup. Run-funnel, inside funnel, outrageous blitz rates, and league-leading two-high utilization. Those push the expectations of aerial volume to two primary places through the air: Deebo Samuel and tight end Zach Ertz. The ultimate volume for those two pieces ultimately depends on how the game plays out considering how the Commanders are likeliest to approach the game from a game-planning perspective, but there are clear paths to elite volume for both players. There is also a path for McLaurin to cash in on a deep shot or two, although his snap rate is likely to remain sub-optimal here. The reintroduction of Brown into the offense, if he plays, is also likely to give them their primary secondary manipulator back, which should serve to loosen up the interior of the defense. A lot of this is speculation and “reading the tea leaves,” but that is kind of what we’re left with considering there are so many moving pieces here.

HOW MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• I’m writing this game up first this week, before any injury reports are released, because we should have a clear picture of their respective injury situations for Week 14.
• Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill is done for the season, while Jets WR Garrett Wilson remains on IR.
• These two teams rank 32nd (Dolphins) and 31st (Jets) in PROE over the previous month of play.
• De’Von Achane has accounted for 48.4% of the team’s opportunities in their last three games.
• Achane ranks first in explosive run rate (9.7%) while Breece Hall ranks third (8.0%) among backs with more than 35 carries this season.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How miami Will Try To Win ::

The Dolphins have completely transformed their offensive identity to be rooted on the ground, leading the league in rush rate over expectation and total rush rate in the past month while averaging 31.7 rush attempts per game in that span. That becomes even more impressive when you consider they are averaging only 55.3 plays per game in their last three games (the third-fewest plays per game on the season at 56.0). Furthermore, the structure of the offense has shifted to an extreme emphasis on heavy personnel groupings through the utilization of fullback Alec Ingold and a three-headed tight end stable to include Julian Hill, Darren Waller, and Greg Dulcich. From a macro perspective, these changes make sense considering the loss of Tyreek Hill, allowing the offense to emphasize its best players in De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle, who are the only two players to play in near every-down roles. Their defense has allowed them to be successful in those changes as well, recently beating the Bills, Commanders, and Saints while holding them to an average of 14.3 points per game. Most interesting to me is the fact that they allowed those three teams to average 349.7 yards per game, which is right around the 345.2 they have allowed on the season. A big factor in their ability to control game environments the way they have in those games was the seven total takeaways they forced.

After starting the season with 20 or more carries in one of his first nine games, Achane has averaged 21.67 rush attempts and 142.67 rush yards per game his last three times out, while going for 120 yards or more on the ground each game in that span. Achane has not played fewer than 73% of the team’s offensive snaps in four games, hitting 80% or more in three of those contests. Furthermore, Achane has accounted for a ridiculous 48.4% of the team’s total opportunities in their previous three games. You would be hard-pressed to find a back with a more robust workload, with really only Christian McCaffrey rivaling what Achane has put together in the past month of play. The Jets have allowed 4.3 yards per carry this season, but actually rank second in the league in yards allowed before contact. Achane has been most deadly behind man/gap concepts, rushing to an ungodly 7.15 yards per carry behind those blocking concepts, with the Jets notably better against man/gap concepts throughout the season, allowing only 3.42 yards per carry in that split since trading away multiple defensive players at the deadline. New York has also done well at limiting explosives on the ground, making this a neutral pure matchup on the ground for Achane.

Waddle has accounted for a 0.28 TPRR, 2.94 YPRR, 31.4% first-read target rate, and 0.57 FP/RR in the absence of Hill this season, but that has equated to only 13.2 FP/G and just 6.9 targets per game as the team made its transition to a heavier emphasis on the ground game. He still has yet to see more than nine targets in a game this season, averaging just 6.67 targets per game in their last three. He has also gone over 100 yards only once all season. Malik Washington and Waller are next up as far as snap rate is concerned, both playing in situational roles, with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Cedrick Wilson, and Dulcich bringing up the rear in package roles. The truth of the matter here is that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has attempted no more than 23 passes in their previous three games, throwing it more than a modest 26 times only once in their last six contests. That simply leaves very little room for fantasy upside to develop on such little volume.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• RB Alvin Kamara did not practice Wednesday or Thursday after missing Week 13 with knee and ankle injuries. I would expect him to miss another game, at minimum.
• WR Chris Olave (back) missed practice Wednesday after his back issue “flared up” following their Week 13 loss to the Dolphins, but upgraded to a limited showing Thursday. I currently expect him to be out there against the Bucs.
• The Buccaneers held a walkthrough on Wednesday, but T Tristan Wirfs was listed as a non-participant with an oblique injury (stayed that way Thursday), while Mike Evans (IR, collarbone), Chris Godwin (fibula), Bucky Irving (shoulder), Jalen McMillan (neck), and Baker Mayfield (left shoulder) were all listed as limited. All but the two receivers on IR upgraded to a full session Thursday.
• Stop me if you’ve heard this before – this game carries a relatively wide range of outcomes!

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How NEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::

The Saints have been neutral-to-negative in pass rate over expectation (PROE) in Tyler Shough’s four starts, but that also includes pass attempts of 38 and 43 in their last two games following their Week 11 bye. The team also clearly emphasized his mobility in their week off, with Shough taking off for 13 total carries the past two weeks. We know this offense is going to utilize tempo, we know they are going to marry run-pass rates to the game environment they find themselves in, and we know the offense is going to take shots deep. There is a lot to work through from this team beyond those assumptions. First off, Kamara es expected to miss his second consecutive contest this week. Second, the Buccaneers present a clear pass-funnel matchup (third-highest PROE faced). Third, the Buccaneers have been far less efficient on offense since the middle of the season, while dealing with too many injuries to list. And finally, Tampa Bay has been far less willing to push game environment on its own during that span of games without many of their primary contributors. Given how those intricacies function within our assumptions, I think it’s likely we see the Saints approach this one with a more muted offensive game plan, but likely to be equally as likely to quickly adapt to the game environment they find themselves in.

Kamara was injured after only 11 offensive snaps in the Saints’ first game following their Week 11 bye. Devin Neal operated as the clear lead back in the remainder of Week 12 and in Week 13, handling 14 and 17 opportunities, respectively. The uptempo nature of the offense has led to top-10 marks in total play volume, leaving Neal in line to see another 16-18 opportunities as his baseline, with upside for more depending on how the game plays out. The pure matchup on the ground is well below average, but the Buccaneers continue to be burned by backs through the air. Consider that aspect of the matchup floor-boosting more than it is ceiling-raising. Evan Hull operated as the primary change-of-pace option last week but was on the field at a low 18% clip. Taysom Hill also remains on hand to soak up rushing volume, although he played only 12 offensive snaps against the Dolphins.

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The Saints have effectively played two games in their current personnel configuration (without Rashid Shaheed, who was dealt at the trade deadline, and Brandin Cooks, who was released during their bye week). In those two games, Devaughn Vele joined Olave and tight end Juwan Johnson as the three near every-down pass-catchers, with Mason Tipton and Foster Moreau mixing in at rates dependent on the team’s utilization of 12-personnel. All three of those primary pieces saw 15 or more targets in those two games, but all three also posted 1.55 yards per route run (YPRR) or fewer (Vele) and 0.36 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) or fewer (also Vele). None of these guys carry immense ceiling on a per-target basis within the structure of this offense, but all three can see targets pile up and can return a usable fantasy outing with a little touchdown variance swinging in their favor.

HOW TAMPA BAY WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Daniel Jones was listed as a full participant on Wednesday’s practice report but we know he continues to deal with a fracture in his left fibula – more on this below.
• CB Sauce Gardner (calf) did not practice on Wednesday. This one is important for how an absence would likely influence recent changes in defensive tendencies for the Colts.
• Jaguars WR Parker Washington (hip) did not practice Wednesday after suffering the injury in the second half of their Week 13 game.
• The Colts averaged 32.1 points per game in their first 10 games, scoring fewer than 29 points only twice in that span. With Daniel Jones playing through a fracture in his fibula the previous two games, they have scored just 20 and 16 points while running 51 and 50 offensive plays.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How INDIANAPOLIS Will Try To Win ::

A week after running just 50 offensive plays against the Chiefs, the first game where quarterback Jones was dealing with a fracture in his fibula, the Colts ran just 51 offensive plays against the Texans. There was a play on their first possession last week in which Jones clearly looked like he wanted to climb the pocket and evade pressure but was unable to plant and accelerate forward, eventually resulting in a sack where he was taken to the ground while hopping on his right leg (would not plant his injured left leg). That emphasizes what I saw from him on film from the week prior. He started last game playing almost entirely from shotgun before getting back under center on their third possession, which was when the Colts started moving the football effectively. We spent a long time last week talking about why that is so important for a team that utilizes as much play action and RPO as the Colts, both of which are going to suffer if Jones can’t be under center at a meaningful frequency due to his injury. To me, the fact that the Colts scored 20 and 16 points their last two times out after scoring fewer than 29 only twice in their first 10 games has way more to do with Jones’ health and what it means for the structure of this offense than it does their opponents in those games.

The team’s desire to “throw to score, run to win” also comes under fire with the injury to Jones. It isn’t as simple as them just airing it out at an increased rate in the first half and coasting to victories, it’s a function of all the pieces of this offense working together to keep opposing defenses off balance. They are largely unable to accomplish that task with Jones playing through a clearly painful fracture to his left fibula, which limits their ability to utilize key components of the offense, like play action and RPO, at the rates they would otherwise like should Jones be more comfortable under center at similar rates to where he was at pre-injury. Which is to say, I am much more hesitant to view this offense anywhere close to the level we did for the first 10 weeks of the season when they averaged 32.1 points per game and were sitting at an 8-2 record.

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Furthermore, the high after the recent addition of cornerback Sauce Gardner was short-lived after he came down with an injury in Week 13, which is likely to force them back into heavy rates of Cover-3 and away from the heavy rates of man coverage they had used while holding the Chiefs to 23 points and Texans to 20 points. I’m spending so much time dissecting this stuff because of what it means for Jonathan Taylor, knowing that he had scored 30 or more DK points in six of his first 10 games before peaking at just 15.1 in the two games since the team’s Week 11 bye. He will remain a legitimate workhorse in this offense, but he takes a sizeable hit if the offense is not going to be as efficient as it was with a healthy Jones. And then there’s the matchup against a Jaguars defense that is forcing the highest PROE (pass rate over expectation), fewest rush attempts per game, and just 3.9 yards per carry this season.

The Colts do not utilize 12-personnel, instead focusing on 12 and 11. 12 typically comes via the injections of veteran tight ends Mo Alie-Cox and Drew Ogletree, with rookie Tyler Warren joining veteran wide receivers Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce as the three players to see near every-down action. Josh Downs operates in a near slot-only role, with snap and route-participation rates at the mercy of the team’s 12-personnel rates. We know what Pierce is to this team, as his role has not changed during the previous two-plus seasons, now boasting the third-deepest aDOT in the league (19.6), of players to run more than 100 routes this season. Pittman remains largely confined to the middle of the route tree with an aDOT of 8.8, while Warren operates primarily in the short area of the field, with heavy emphasis on quick hits behind play action or RPO. The Jaguars present a deep-outside and intermediate-middle funnel defense against the pass, most commonly exploited via stretching them in the vertical. That points directly to Pierce and Warren yet again this week. 

HOW JACKSONVILLE WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• Several key matchups are scheduled down the stretch of the season that will determine the outcome of a competitive AFC North race that no one seems to want to win.
• These teams will meet again in Week 18 in Pittsburgh.
• Ravens star QB Lamar Jackson was limited in practice Wednesday and then missed practice Thursday.
• After a hot start to the season, Pittsburgh has lost 3 of their last 4 games and 5 of their last 7.
• The Steelers have completed only two passes 15+ yards downfield since Week 9.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The Steelers offense has scored 30+ points three times this season – twice against the Bengals and in Week 1 against the Jets. Recently they have been crawling deeper and deeper into their shell, as their defense has improved but they have just used that as a reason to play extra conservative on offense. Since Week 9, the Steelers have completed only two passes 15+ yards downfield while throwing four interceptions in that area. This is a team who could really use a downfield threat, maybe someone like George Pickens is available?

The Steelers are running the ball at a top-10 rate relative to expectation over the last month as they try to manage the game and win slugfests. Their only true threat on the perimeter is WR DK Metcalf, whose skill set is not dynamic enough that the team can do much with him anyways. The Steelers utilize four different tight ends and rotate them often, while using multiple tight end formations and packages on at least half of their offensive plays. Pittsburgh’s receivers behind Metcalf are Calvin Austin and Roman Wilson, who each play around half of the snaps on average. Wilson has surpassed 40 receiving yards once this season, while Austin has done so twice. The Steelers signed veteran WR Adam Thielen this week in a sign of their concern at the position. On the ground, the Steelers backfield is a full-blown timeshare with Jaylen Warren operating as the primary early down rusher and goal line back and Kenneth Gainwell playing on all clear passing downs while also mixing in on some early downs and in the red zone. Pittsburgh is likely to struggle consistently moving the ball once again this week as they are incapable of generating explosive plays and it is an absolute grind for them to get first downs. They will try to move the ball a few yards at a time and bank on their defense and special teams giving them short fields to try to “win ugly” against a Ravens team that has also been struggling to find their footing.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• There is some weather uncertainty around this spot as Buffalo in December is lurking with chilly temperatures and potential for snow.
• This game features two of the bottom-3 run defenses in the NFL, as well as the second and sixth ranked rushing offenses in DVOA.
• Cincinnati RB Samaje Perine returned last week and handled roughly 40% of the backfield work.
• The Bengals played last week without WR Tee Higgins, who is back at practice and expected to play.
• James Cook handled 35 touches last week against Pittsburgh and seems likely to be very busy once again in a pristine matchup.
• Most of the matchup data for this game point towards the backfields, but we would be remiss to not mention the elite quarterbacks and potential for either team to have success airing it out.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals are still somehow alive in the AFC North despite a 4-8 record after an upset win over the Ravens on Thanksgiving. The Bengals split with the Steelers and face the Ravens again next week, where they could potentially sweep the season series and take the tiebreaker if they can duplicate last week’s performance. Cincinnati ends the season with games against the Dolphins, Cardinals, and Browns – none of which are sure things for a 4-8 team, but all of which they will be favored in assuming their main players are all healthy. The short of it is that the Bengals are in a unique situation for a team with their record this deep into the season to essentially be in control of their own destiny. Their defense has been improving in recent weeks, their running game is quietly very efficient, and their dynamic passing game trio of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins is intact for the first time since Week 2.

The Bills defense mixes up zone and man coverage schemes, while historically being very good against opposing wide receivers. That being said, Chase and Higgins are somewhat matchup proof and really it depends on the game script how involved they will be. Chase is a target hog and likely to be schemed the ball one way or another, while Higgins role is more up in the air due to the matchup, weather, uncertainty of game script, and his return from a concussion. Coming back from a head injury, players generally don’t alter the way they play but the Bengals may be more hesitant to put him in jump ball situations or running certain routes that put him in position to take big hits across the middle. I would expect Higgins to be featured more on out-breaking routes and hitches, with the potential for vertical downfield shots a “break glass in case of emergency” type of option.

The Bengals approach to this game will be interesting, as they are fifth in the NFL this season in PROE (pass rate over expectation) in neutral situations and sixth overall in PROE. However, the impending Buffalo winter weather (forecast of frigid temperatures in the 20’s and a good chance for snow) along with a Bills defense that is incredibly susceptible against the run are likely to move them to a more balanced approach. Buffalo ranks 30th in run defense DVOA and has been gashed on the ground repeatedly this year. The Bengals are known for their passing game, but rank sixth in rushing offense DVOA and their often maligned offensive line has been very good in the trenches lately. Cincinnati’s offense struggled mightily with Jake Browning at quarterback, but their rushing efficiency numbers have looked even better for the season if you remove those weeks where Browning played and instead focus only on games where Burrow or Joe Flacco were at the helm. The Bengals should move the ball efficiently on the ground and run at a high rate by their standards. Ultimately their offensive success will likely rely on their elite passing game’s ability to convert in high leverage situations and/or create explosive plays. Cincinnati’s defense has been playing well of late and the Bills offense has struggled a bit recently, but the history of these teams suggest that the Bengals will feel pressure from the outset to put points on the board and ideally play from a lead as the Buffalo running game has been so elite all season.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• Denver enters the week with a two-game lead in their division and only a half-game behind the Patriots for the top seed in the AFC.
• Denver has won nine consecutive games and seven of them have been decided by one score.
• The Broncos defense has been elite again this season and has been especially dominant against weak offenses.
• Las Vegas has scored over 20 points only three times this season, and only once since Week 4.
• These teams met a month ago in an ugly Thursday night game that the Broncos won 10-7.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How denver Will Try To Win ::

“Just win, baby” is the famous motto of the Raiders, coined by their late owner Al Davis. Well, that is exactly what the Broncos have been doing this season. Denver started the season slow and lost two of their first three games, both on field goals at the buzzer. Since then, they have found a way to win nine straight times in a variety of game environments against opponents of all different levels. Their most recent win was a Sunday night football barnburner that went to overtime in Washington where they scored a touchdown, then allowed the Commanders to answer, before stopping their two-point conversion attempt. On the flip side, the first time they played the Raiders was an ugly low-scoring game that they just grinded out and survived. They have played games on both ends of the spectrum, but keep finding ways to gut it out. That being said, their current formula is one that is not really sustainable in a highly variant game like football.

Denver has operated a balanced offense this season and is slightly above their expected pass rate for the season and in recent weeks. They did throw the ball at an elevated rate last week against Washington, but that likely had a lot to do with a Commanders defense that ranks last in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed, as well as a competitive and somewhat high scoring game script. The Broncos offense really struggled the first time these teams played, however, and their approach is likely to differ from that first matchup when Nix had a season low 28 pass attempts. Denver picked up the pace last week in Washington and utilized more no-huddle and faster offensive tempo, with strong results. It would make sense for that approach to carry over here and for the Broncos to try to jump out ahead on a struggling Raiders team so they can have a “comfortable” win for once.

The backfield involves three running backs, with Jaleel McLaughlin operating as the backup to RJ Harvey while Tyler Badie handles obvious passing situations. Harvey is clearly the top-dog, however, and he has handled 60% of the running back opportunities since JK Dobbins went down for the season. Harvey scored two short yardage touchdowns last week and while Badie plays situationally, the team still throws the ball to Harvey often enough for it to matter. He has three targets in each of his starts and has at least three targets in eight of twelve games this season. The Raiders run defense is slightly below average in season long metrics, but has been struggling lately and got gashed by Kimani Vidal and the Chargers last week. This is a great matchup for the Broncos running game and they could be in store for high play volume with the Raiders offense likely to struggle sustaining drives.

In the passing game, things are as murky as always for Denver. Courtland Sutton is their top wide receiver, but his usage is spotty and inconsistent. He had a nice game last week, but has only scored 20+ PPR points once all season and has only been targeted more than six times in a game once since Week 5. He shouldn’t disappear in this matchup, but things will likely be spread around for Denver. After Sutton, it appeared that Troy Franklin had emerged as the clear WR2 for the Broncos until rookie Pat Bryant outplayed him Sunday night in their first game after their bye week. Bryant is a more physical player and terrific run blocker who the coaches love. Both Bryant and Franklin are likely to stay involved and on the field a lot, with their production likely to be hard to predict. The final pieces of this offense are TE Evan Engram and WR Marvin Mims Jr. Engram had his best game of the season against Washington as he torched the slow linebackers of the Commanders. This matchup is not quite as good or obvious, but he will still be involved – just less likely to make the big plays after the catch we saw in Week 13. Mims is more of a “gadget” player, seeing around 30% of the team’s snaps most weeks and being used on runs, short area designed passes, or the occasional deep shot. When he is on the field, it is likely the team is going to him or using him as a decoy and key part of the play.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By >> Mike johnson

• This is the first of two matchups between these teams in the last month of the season, which will likely determine the winner of the NFC North.
• The Bears are currently the top seed in the NFC with a 9-3 record, having won five consecutive games in a variety of matchups and game scripts.
• Chicago’s offense has been highlighted by a dominant running game that has evolved throughout the season, while their passing game has room for growth.
• Green Bay is coming off a huge road win over the Lions that put them in striking distance of the division lead and top of the conference.
• The Packers may get wide receivers Jayden Reed and/or Matthew Golden back from injury, which would complicate things in terms of usage.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

The Bears season has been an interesting one from the start and the turnaround for this franchise in the first season under head coach Ben Johnson has been outstanding. After seasons of missed opportunities, close losses, poor execution, and sloppy decision making under the previous regime, Chicago has been dialed in as a buttoned up operation that is clicking on all cylinders and seems to be getting better each week. The Bears are coming off a big road victory over the Eagles on Black Friday which was a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate and changed on an Eagles fumble in the late third quarter when they were deep in Chicago territory. They are currently on a 5-game winning streak and the other four games were all won by five points or less, and seven of Chicago’s twelve games this season have been decided by one score. The Bears are the current #1 seed in the NFC, but are only a half-game ahead of the 7th seeded 49ers in a wildly competitive conference.

Given the expected cold weather and the high stakes of the game, avoiding turnovers will be paramount. The Bears will prioritize high-percentage throws and secure carries to prevent giving the Packers extra opportunities. Chicago’s running game has been elite this season, ranking 4th in rushing offense DVOA and 5th in yards per rush attempt. Their offensive line has been physically dominant, creating 5.17 adjusted line yards per rush attempt – which is second in the NFL. Chicago involves two backs in their game plan, with veteran D’Andre Swift and rookie Kyle Monangai splitting the “base” duties, Swift taking most of the passing down work, and Monangai taking care of things near the goal line. This week they face a very good Green Bay defense that is better against the pass than the run and Chicago will almost certainly enter Lambeau Field focused on replicating what they did to the Eagles last week.

As for the Bears passing game, Ben Johnson himself said this week that they have been winning “in spite of” it rather than “because of” it. The talent is there, but it is still developing. This is part of the genius of Johnson as many coaches would have tried to press with the shiny objects in the passing game from the outset of the season, but he focused on building a strong foundation and letting Caleb Williams and his receivers gradually grow within his elite offensive scheme. This week the Bears seem likely to be without top wide receiver Rome Odunze, who is dealing with a foot injury and has not yet practiced. This should leave veteran DJ Moore and rookie Luther Burden III in primary roles, while Olamide Zaccheaus operates as the third receiver. The expected absence of Odunze should also lead to a high rate of “12” personnel for Chicago with two tight ends on the field. Rookie Colston Loveland has essentially surpassed Cole Kmet as the top tight end option on the team, running more routes and being targeted more than Kmet in recent weeks despite Kmet playing more snaps. Loveland, Burden, and Moore will all likely see high target shares and all are capable of making plays after the catch. We can expect some play action passing for downfield shots on calculated situations as well. I could also see Odunze playing in a “limited” role in this game due to how important it is, with Burden and Moore being the regulars out there and Odunze coming in only for key drives and obvious passing situations. 

Odunze’s injury and the nature of this game make it likely that the Bears will lean into these multiple tight end sets with a focus on grinding things out offensively. The Packers pass rush is elite and Caleb Williams still makes some questionable decisions, so the Bears will do everything they can to keep this game in a neutral to positive script as the last thing they want is to fall behind and have Micah Parsons teeing off on Williams in a hostile environment. Chicago should have some success running the ball on early downs, with third down conversions in short yardage situations being the key to their overall ability to score points.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• The Rams look to bounce back and stay on top of the NFC West after a cross country upset loss to the Panthers.
• Arizona wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. appears likely to miss another game, which would leave TE Trey McBride and WR Michael Wilson in position for massive roles.
• This game features the league’s two most pass heavy offenses over the last month.
• Los Angeles continues to split up their backfield work and involve Blake Corum at the expense of Kyren Williams workload.
• The Rams are one of the high certainty offenses this week, with the game script likely to be determined by Arizona’s ability to generate offense.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams took their show on the road last week across the country to face an upstart Panthers team that has several “upsets” on their resume now this season and were promptly brought back down to earth. After a week of the media fawning over Los Angeles following their drubbing of the Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football in Week 12, the Rams were on the negative side of most of the high leverage plays in their loss to the Panthers. MVP candidate Matthew Stafford had 30 touchdown passes and only two turnovers entering last week, and promptly turned the ball over three times. The Panthers also converted two fourth down plays into long touchdown passes. While the result may have some Rams fans panicked, the reality is if the Rams get a stop or two on those fourth down plays (or even just let them pick up the first down but not a long touchdown), the game probably plays out very differently, and Stafford’s ball security concerns in that spot were a little fluky for the level he has played at the rest of the season.

Part of the issue last week also may have been the cross country road trip and time difference, along with some rainy and gloomy weather. Those things will not be an issue for Los Angeles this week, as they are playing in the comfortable confines of a dome and a short trip from home. The Rams are second in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) over the last month and third for the season. The Rams rank 6th in the NFL in yards per play and 8th in total yards, while leading the league in offensive DVOA (ranking 1st in passing offense and 3rd in rushing offense). To put it simply, the Rams have been playing elite offense all season and have been deadly efficient. Even in last week’s loss, the Rams scored 28 points and averaged 7.4 yards per play (for reference, the Colts lead the NFL in yards per play this season at 6.3). 

Los Angeles runs an offense that centers around their elite receivers, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Nacua sees a higher target rate and moves the chains more, while operating as the movable chess piece that head coach Sean McVay utilizes in a variety of ways. Adams operates in a more traditional role and has been absolutely dominant in the red zone, scoring 11 touchdowns in the last six games with 14 touchdowns total on the season. The Rams lost veteran tight end Tyler Higbee a couple of weeks ago and have moved back to more “11” personnel with three wide receivers on the field rather than the high rate of “12” and “13” packages that utilized two or three tight ends. Colby Parkinson has been the primary tight end, while Davis Allen and exciting rookie Terrance Ferguson are also involved. The Rams also had a three player WR rotation at their third wide receiver spot, but may get the diminutive and explosive Tutu Atwell back this week which would further muddy the waters. The tight ends and “other” receivers are mostly just ancillary pieces, however, with the Rams’ always elite running game being the real complement to Stafford, Adams, and Nacua’s dominance through the air. Kyren Williams has been solid this season, but continues to share work with Blake Corum and has had more than 17 touches in a game only once since Week 6. Corum has at least seven carries in each game since the team’s Week 8 bye, and is coming off a season high 81 rushing yards in Carolina that featured a 34 yard run. Corum looked explosive and dynamic and jumped off the screen – he isn’t going away. 

Expect the Rams to have a lot of success running the ball against a Cardinals defense ranked 20th in run defense as the Rams should have no troubles winning at the line of scrimmage. That rushing efficiency will make Los Angeles very difficult for Arizona to contain through the air, as Matthew Stafford is deadly when using play action. Puka Nacua should be in store for a big game in the short to intermediate areas of the field against an Arizona defense that has a moderate blitz rate and mixes up coverages, but is generally conservative in their schemes. The Rams should have no trouble moving the ball up and down the field, which means Adams and the tight ends will also get their share of opportunities and red zone trips should be plentiful.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the Texans visiting the Chiefs for a very “meh” 41.5 total game with the Chiefs favored by 3.5. We’re likely in for a major defensive struggle here as the Texans have the best defense in the NFL, and while the Chiefs defense is not as strong, Houston’s offensive ineptitude helps make up for that. In all likelihood, this is a fairly slow, low-scoring game…but you never do know.

KANSAS CITY

On the Chiefs side of things, Isaiah Pacheco made his return from a multi-week absence and played just 30% of the snaps while handling 5 opportunities – both season lows. Pacheco had been significantly out-snapping Kareem Hunt in all but one game prior to his injury, so it’s possible this was just easing him back in, but it’s also possible the Chiefs just trust Hunt more (for some completely baffling reason). If Pacheco only gets 5 touches, even at just $4,400, he’s overpriced, but if he moves back to his pre-injury role (which was still modest, but more like 10-12 touches most games), he’s underpriced even in a mediocre matchup. The problem is, we just don’t know how it’s going to shake out. Hunt, on the other hand, has only gone over 16 opportunities once all season (including when Pacheco missed time). At $7,400, he’s pretty clearly overpriced, especially as the passing game role he used to have when he was younger has largely evaporated this season, and he would need to fall into at least 1 touchdown to really have a shot at returning value. I’m more interested in Pacheco here – both of these guys are extremely fragile, but I think Pacheco at least has a shot at ceiling relative to his price, while Hunt would need a very unlikely path in order to find himself in winning lineups. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Rashee Rice is a stud. Since returning from his suspension, he has at least 23.2 DK points in four of six games with 5 touchdowns while averaging just shy of 10 targets per game. It’s a difficult matchup, of course, but Rice is just hands-down awesome, and of course, he has one of the league’s top QBs throwing to him. Rice even has 17 red zone targets – 4th in the NFL among wide receivers – despite missing SIX games (on a per-game basis, he’s #1 and it isn’t even close). It’s a little odd seeing him more expensive than Patrick Mahomes, but since those two are the only guys over $10k in this Showdown, it’s pretty easy to fit them (except high ownership). Really, the only knock against playing Rice is “football is weird sometimes.” Xavier Worthy is the other full-time wide receiver, and since Rice returned, he has between 5 and 8 targets in every (competitive) game. At $6,600, that’s reasonable though not exciting, especially with a near-zero red zone role – he’ll probably have to break a long one to be relevant. The WR3 role is split between Marquise Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Tyquan Thornton, with Brown and JuJu seeing more field time but Thornton having the most per-target upside. Given the multi-way split, none of these guys are great options – they’re all just kind of punt options, but I’ll lean Thornton’s way because his ridiculous aDOT gives him at least a chance of being relevant on a single catch.

At tight end, Travis Kelce has looked a lot more spry this year compared to last season. I thought the Chiefs would be saving him for the playoffs, but I’ve been wrong on that. He does kind of come and go from the offense a bit, but he has games of 8 and 13 targets since Rice returned and has shown some per-catch upside with 3 catches of 30+ yards on the season already (something he only did once all of last year). At $8,800, he’s a little more expensive than I’d like to see, as he’s pretty close to Nico Collins, who is a much stronger play, but he is certainly viable in tournaments. TE2 Noah Gray has been a little more involved in the offense lately, with target counts of 4, 1, 3, and 4 in Kansas City’s last four games, but with a tiny aDOT and no real red zone role, his per-target upside is very modest. 

HOUSTON

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

After the bore of writing up the Sunday night game, we get one that’s a bit more exciting with the Eagles taking on the Chargers in a 41.5 total game with Philly favored by 2.5. Okay, maybe I spoke too soon about it being exciting. This one opened at 45.5 but has been bet down, and of course, Justin Herbert having a fractured non-throwing hand isn’t exactly a sign of optimism (yes, it’s not his throwing hand, but you still use both hands when playing football so it could affect him, and it could also just make him more sensitive to pain/being hit in the game). Herbert is expected to play, but he could not be at full strength, and then the Eagles offense has looked pretty broken all season long (at least compared to what we’re used to seeing from them). Fun!

LOS ANGELES

On the Chargers side of things, they’re getting Omarion Hampton back from injured reserve, putting an end to Kimani Vidal being a bell cow. Vidal has actually played well for Los Angeles, and it’s likely he retains a role. I doubt, at least, that Hampton assumes anything remotely like a bell cow role in his first game back. That leaves him looking like a pretty shaky option, even though he’s just $7,800, as the matchup is awful and the workload is uncertain. It’s worth thinking “what if” here, though, as running backs always carry high touchdown equity, and “what if” he plays a bigger role than expected and/or gets a 1-yard score after an end zone DPI call? I wouldn’t touch him in cash, but in tournaments, depending on ownership, he could be interesting as a contrarian option. If he projects for under 20-25% ownership, I’m intrigued. BUTTTTT…the Chargers coach has talked up Vidal. Vidal has run really, really well. Maaaaybe Vidal plays ahead of Hampton? This backfield is going to be really tough to trust, but since projection services have Hampton projected ahead, I’d guess Vidal’s ownership here is sub-5%. I have no real confidence in this, but I think there’s a greater than 5% chance that Vidal plays as the lead back. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the emergence of Oronde Gadsden at tight end gives the Chargers too many weapons. There are now four talented pass catchers all vying for work. Ladd McConkey is the ostensible WR1, but he only has three games over 20 DK points all season because of how many options the Chargers have. Quentin Johnston started the season hot but has faded, only reaching a modest 15 DK points once since Week 4. Same with Keenan Allen, who was lighting the world on fire early in the year, culminating with a 31.9 point performance in Week 7, but he hasn’t even reached double digits since. Despite having three talented wideouts, the Chargers are still giving meaningful snaps to Tre Harris, who has yet to reach double digit DK points or more than 34 receiving yards in a game…why? Gadsden also exploded onto the scene, but has done little since Week 8. This is a tough spot to figure out because it feels like any of these guys could hit on any given week, but it’s really tough for more than two to hit, and it’s awfully hard to predict who’s likeliest to do well. Ladd is the best option here with the most consistent involvement since his slow start, but he’s also the most expensive of the Los Angeles skill position players so it’s not exactly all that helpful to say his projection is the best. Allen is a tough sell for me as a 33-year-old who has looked to be fading for weeks now, and it’s generally best to play older players early in the season when they’re fresh, as they tend to wear down as the season goes on.

Gadsden is another tough one for me as Ladd’s resurgence has coincided with his lack of work, and then Philly has presented one of the toughest matchups for tight ends in the league (though I don’t place THAT high a value on defense-vs-position metrics, it can be something of a tiebreaker when looking to sort out this ugly situation). Johnston has one of the best matchups out on the perimeter. Ladd and Johnson are my favorites here, while Allen and Gadsden are clear underweight positions for me. 

PHILADELPHIA