Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!!!

What a weekend it was. If this email is sometimes the official “kick” for the week, then Binks channel visits on Sunday nights are the official “close,” and what a great run for the community.

I won’t do a recap here as it’s not the space for it, but ICYMI, go check out the community posts in the Discord Binks channel or the OWS post // JM’s post on X. Congrats to all of you who had a strong, profitable week. While I don’t have the most major voice on this site, I do know I share the sentiment of other content providers on here that if it’s not our lineups taking down a tournament, we hope it’s all of you! A big Week 13 was great to see and a reminder that process wins over results. So let’s turn the page to Week 14.

Every sport has its fundamentals. I was fortunate enough to play my share of competitive sports through different levels, and while sports of every kind are different, they are also very similar. Practice, practice, practice. Train hard enough to develop muscle memory. Simulate the games as much as possible. Have fun, but leave it all on the field/pitch/rink/course/etc. No matter the sport, these are all hard truths for success.

Additionally, in most sports, there’s also a level of feel that comes into play. This is harder to quantify and far more subjective to an individual, but essentially this is the level needed to maintain success. Sometimes all the training and practice can prepare your body and mind for the moment, but either can decide to fail you at any time. It’s why successful athletes are known for even overtraining and unparalleled discipline, because the fear of failure is always present.

What I mean by this using real examples is when a baseball player gets the “yips” or can’t seem to throw a ball accurately anymore. When a golfer similarly struggles to make the right contact. When a basketball player has a harder time shooting a wide-open shot versus taking a contested one. Or when a football player all of a sudden can’t catch a ball. This stuff happens all the time in youth sports, or at the amateur level, but when it happens in big-time collegiate or professional levels, it never makes sense.

Yet, these types of failures are common and present. There’s a lot going on in the mind and body, and when you bring in adrenaline, high pressure, and more variables, it can get pretty crazy out there. And for all of these fundamentals that escape us, the only way to come back to center is to go back to the basics. In basketball, the free-throw line. In golf, some simple nine-irons. Football, a JUGS machine. Baseball for a pitcher is to work on “throwing” and not “aiming” (i.e., less thinking), or for a hitter, it’s trying to take every pitch up the middle or to the opposite field.

These are a lot of words to lead in this week, but important ones to recognize how important our DFS fundamentals are to us in this home stretch of the NFL season. Price per player matters. Ceiling outputs that we’ve seen before this season matter. Correlation always matters. Building for a balance of chalk and randomness matters. High-total games could matter and low-total games could matter, but concentrated offenses matter more. Pace of play will come into play. Win-loss regression sometimes counts, too. Younger players should be getting better now, and roles can change even this late into a season.

Nobody said it’s easy, but playing any game, you have to keep things as simple as possible at all times. As you size up the incoming 11-game main slate, don’t reinvent your approach to building effective lineups. Pick your lane and go fast. We have 13 weeks in the books already. It’s been a weird but explainable season. Week 14 is going to surely come with even more surprises; let’s jump in.

Week 14 :: What. A. Slate. (IRL)

What was cool about the Week 13 main slate was that it was inherently boring. If you sat down and listed out the quarterbacks in action, it wouldn’t impress a casual football fan. I’m not even sure we would’ve been watching most of the games if we didn’t play DFS. The slate itself ended up this way because of the three games stripped from it for Thanksgiving, the Black Friday game, and unironically, the Sunday slate also ended up as one of the lower-scoring slates of the season. Yet, huge prize pools were still awarded, style points or not.

If there were style points, however, Week 14 would be getting some thrown its way. We’re in the thick of the playoff push now, so every game is carrying that much more importance, and this week we’re going to see some key divisional matchups that will bring a bit more juice. Bears // Packers, Colts // Jaguars, and Steelers // Ravens fit the divisional mold. Bengals // Bills fits the “playoff push” mold and should be the game of the week for fantasy purposes. And we have teams like the Broncos (at Vegas), Seahawks (at Atlanta), Rams (at Cardinals), and Bucs (vs. Saints), who need wins to stay in position for their division crown and/or the #1 seed in the conference.

We’ll say this every week from here on out, but Week 14 should be full of really good football. At face value, there’s a clear top game environment (CIN/BUF), but as we know, things don’t always play out that way. Cincinnati showed a propensity to let Joe Burrow throw his way into football shape last week vs. Baltimore (46 passes to 33 rushing attempts), while Buffalo ran its way to an easy win over Pittsburgh with James Cook and Josh Allen. A 53-point total is nothing to sneeze at, so it still makes sense to start with this game and go from there. Both teams need the win, and this is Allen vs. Burrow; it could be as simple as that. Or could it be complex, as both teams feature bottom-10 rush defenses (though Cincy’s run D has been better of late), and the game could be slowed down that way. A good starting point for the slate is to figure out what to do with guys like Chase, Burrow, Allen, Cook, Brown, Higgins, Kincaid, Shakir, and go from there.

Bears at Green Bay brings two hot teams together in cold weather. Fresh off their discarding of the Eagles on Black Friday, we know how Chicago wants to win now, through their two running backs. Green Bay seemed more inclined to let Jordan Love cook on Thanksgiving and used their wide-receiver depth to their advantage (and a tired, injured Lions defense). The Pack are a healthy favorite, and Chicago has an implied point total under 20. Not very much respect from Vegas for the current #1 seed in the NFC…

Colts and Jags match up for the first time this season, and it feels much different than if this were in the first quarter of the season. Indianapolis needs to bounce back offensively with a now hobbled Daniel Jones and a few quiet games from JT. The Jags are as confident as ever somehow, without Travis Hunter or Brian Thomas Jr. contributing much. They have the current tiebreaker over Indy and technically own the AFC South today, but a loss here and Jacksonville will be looking up again. How can the Colts win and hide Jones? How can the Jags win and hide Trevor Lawrence?

Three potent offenses in Seattle, LA Rams, and Denver get struggling opponents indoors this week. It seems likely at least one, maybe two, of these teams put up 30 points here, with the elements not becoming a factor. After the Bengals and Bills, my interest may start with these teams, as both the Rams (close loss to Carolina) and Denver (OT win vs. Mario-TA and Washington) should be more motivated to get on track. Seattle won handily last week via its defense and may be able to do the same this week at the expense of Kirk Cousins.

Motivation shouldn’t be lacking anymore for any team. As always, the slate presents us with a myriad of options, and no path we choose is incorrect. But what’s the story, what’s the reason, where’s the right balance between likely and improbable?

Let those angles emerge and your lineups develop. Stick to those fundamentals, and we’ll see you in the Binks channel on Sunday night.

Let’s go OWS!!!

~Larejo

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

JM’s journal will be live THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND

TUESDAY, DEC 2 ::

WEEK 14 EARLY SLATE THOUGHTS ::

i’ve been a little slow getting started this week.

the last two weeks, of course, have been nuts.

we had the travel fiascos at the end of week 12, and then week 13 was an outrageously ugly sunday slate, along with thanksgiving week (family and double “main slates” from a content and preparation perspective), added to another round of sickness on my end late in the week (thankfully already kicked), and all said and done, a really nice two-slate stretch of play on my end and an enormously profitable week for the ows fam.

i opened the week 14 slate on sunday night and immediately closed it. i spent a bit of time with it monday night, and then closed it again.

it’s not an ugly slate. it might even turn out to be a slate we like a lot. but it doesn’t appear to be a slate with any super cheap stacks or blocks on concentrated offenses (think tyrod & co last week, or brissett & co the first week mhj missed). it doesn’t appear to be a slate with a smash-potential qb play (think bo nix that week against the giants; man, what a season we’ve had!). and with us being at a point in the season where pricing is really tight, it would be nice to have one of those things.

the start of the month always puts some “work” on my plate (business/admin stuff), and this month had more than normal. but i cleared all of that out today, and the remainder of this week is probably my easiest “nfl work” week of the year ::

i’m at my in-laws’ house in central oklahoma — which means 40 quiet acres with longhorns and chickens, no travel for reserving lineups, no dance classes or soccer practice or afternoons at the go kart track, no family outings, and with my mother-in-law’s favorite thing in the world being taking care of her grandchildren (of whom mine are numbers 12 & 13 — & by far her youngest, with seven of her grandkids now 19 or older), it also means far fewer responsibilities on that side of things for me as well. basically, with my work cleared out, the rest of my week is watching games, listening to content, and thinking about the slate. i’m behind on the week — but i won’t be behind for long.

over the next few hours, i’ll be digging in deeply for the first time this week.

later tonight, i’ll have some journal entries.

tomorrow (probably later in the day), i’ll have plenty more.

let’s get started!

BEARS TE BLOCK THOUGHTS ::

on my first practice build, i asked the question: “can i play jsn, puka, and ja’marr together?”

the answer is probably no. you have to take a sub-$5k quarterback, a couple running backs in the $5k to $6k range, and go cheap at dst (which means missing out on the browns at home vs the titans — a potential “seattle v brosmer”-type producer).

but it did put me onto the following, marginally-interesting block:

$5.9k.

last 5 games:

18.4
16.2
16.5
11.0
32.8

pairing: kmet + loveland.

as this offense has evolved, the te position has become more involved.

ideally, we want better production than that — but if salary savers are as thin as they appear they might be this week, this one is at least worth having in our back pocket.

one complication to that bears te pairing (and another thing to keep in mind) :: “cheap te” looks deep this week.

likely and andrews both have a great matchup v pit.

miami filters targets away from wideouts and toward tight ends (mason taylor).

gunnar helm keeps stacking wins. (if you haven’t watched him yet, he’s pretty awesome. he’s so under the radar that the only nfl highlights i can find of him on youtube are from a preseason game. i wanted to drop a clip for you guys — but apparently you’ll just have to buckle down and watch a titans game one weekend. sorry for your eyes.)

darren waller carries ceiling.

brenton strange has posted 10.5 // 12.1 // 13.5 // 14.3 in his last four healthy games, and has a great te matchup and likely aggressive game script vs indy.

juwan johnson has double-digit points in 5 of 6 (and 8.9 in his other).

kirk cousins is obsessed with kyle pitts if london is still out — & tight ends rack up targets vs seattle.

dalton kincaid (17.6+ in 3 of 7 healthy games) should be back this week in an outrageously good matchup v cincy.

all of these guys are $4.3k or cheaper.

this doesn’t even include warren v jax, or bowers // mcbride.

te looks deep.

wr does not.

i’ve been heavy on two-te builds this year — & it’s another week where that looks like an early favorite for my builds.

WIDE RECEIVER DEPTH THOUGHTS ::

how “not deep” does wr look?

here are the wideouts on the entire slate who A) cost more than $5k, and B) **in their current situation** (the role they’ll have this week) have gone 4x or better their week 14 salary **at any point in the season** (buckle up) ::

jsn, $9k :: week 12 v ten

zay flowers, $6.1k :: week 1 v buf (no other games over 2.5x)

dk metcalf, $5.4k :: week 4 v min (only one other game over 3.06x)

michael pittman, $5.4k :: week 8 v ten // week 9 v pit

alec pierce, $5.1k :: week 9 v pit

egbuka, $6.3k :: week 5 v seattle // week 10 v ne

ja’marr, $8.2k :: week 2 v jax // week 7 v pit (technically, he’s in a different situation now than he was vs pit, but with the situation being a qb upgrade to burrow, we won’t pick nits)

higgins, $6.2k :: week 9 v chi (same as chase: this is technically a different situation — but better)

courtland sutton, $5.6k :: week 3 v lac

troy franklin, $5.5k :: week 2 v ind // week 8 v dal

rome odunze, $5.7k :: week 2 v det

puka, $8.7k :: week 4 v ind


and that’s it.

that’s the list.


deebo ($5.5k) got there — just barely — a couple times with jayden. olave got there once with rattler. you could lump those guys into the pile if you want.


but the point still stands: the chances are not all that high of you nailing a 4-leg parlay (playing 4 wideouts and getting all of them right) when “nailing each leg” means “getting something that’s only happening — if we’re being generous — 10% of the time across the board.” In fact, the chances of you getting four wideouts correct on a roster together (if by “correct” we mean 4x or better) are somewhere in the general range of 1 in 10,000.

so.

yeah.

i might use a flex spot on a tight end this week and give myself only 3 wide receiver spots i have to deal with.

(and if i can find a way, i’ll probably pay up for certainty on a couple of those wide receiver spots.)

i missed one game :: mclaurin last week.

so — putting a bow on that:

there are 26 wideouts on this slate (assuming mhj plays) priced at $5k or higher.

only 13 have gone for 4x their salary at any point this year (in the situation they’re in this week).

among the 26 wideouts priced at $5k or higher, there have been 17 total games that would have kept you on a 200-point pace.

filtering out “situations that are different” (jayden’s games, michael wilson playing without mhj, rattler instead of shough, etc.), these wideouts have played 265 total games.

and okay. honestly. let’s put rattler’s games in and say that rattler to shough isn’t a clear downgrade, and we should only account for situations that are clearly different. i’m good with that.

so then we have 14/26 who have “hit,” and 18 total games of someone hitting.

we also then have 273 total, relevant games played.

across 273 games, we have 18 instances of a player keeping you on a 200-point pace — or a 6.59% hit rate.

what are the chances of hitting something that only happens 6.59% of the time across four spots at once?

about one in every 53,000.

this is important stuff to keep in mind.

this is why the high-priced guys (who might not get you 4x, but will typically get you that 20-30 point score you’re often missing from the cheaper guys) are so valuable.

and this is why a guy like shakir (who bombed last week, and has a bad matchup this week; but just using him as an example) — who rarely smashes, but often posts a strong score — sometimes becomes attractive deeper into the season.

we need to look for ways to turn the math in our favor.

it’s tricky at wide receiver right now.

WEDNESDAY, DEC 3 ::

BENGALS BACKFIELD // BILLS MATCHUP THOUGHTS ::

speaking of things that happen more frequently than “a $5k or higher wideout going for 4x his salary”…

this is what backfields have done against buffalo this year:

15.2 — pit
10.4 — hou
45.2 — tb
44.9 — mia
13.7 — kc
16.4 — car
49.6 — atl
23.0 — ne
23.7 — no
25.9 — mia
8.5 — nyj
31.6 — bal


i wouldn’t want to pay $10.9k for a player with a game log like that. that’s five games of 16.4 or fewer dk points, which is ugly…

but that’s also three games of 44.9 or more(!) — or 25% of the time. and if you recall: historically (though clearly not so much with wideouts this year), dk prices players in such a way that they’ll hit roughly 4x their salary roughly 20% to 25% of the time.

backfields have gone for 44.9+ against the bills 25% of the time this year.

the bengals’ backfield (chase brown + perine) costs $10.9k.

the bengals’ backfield has recent scores of:

24.7 (brown + perine)
18.0 (brown)
18.7 (brown)
19.2 (brown)
42.5 (brown + perine)
18.1 (brown + perine)

once again: i wouldn’t pay $10.9k for a player with that game log…

but there is a 42-pointer in there.

it’s probably fair to say that we would get 40+ from brown + perine around 20% of the time in this matchup — and in terms of what it would open up for your roster, this would be equivalent to paying $5.45k per rb spot.

i expect to put four lineups into play this week.

i could see this pairing going onto one of them (and maybe paying up for jsn + puka on two other spot — i.e., “bengals’ rbs smash, taking away ceiling from ja’marr, and clearing a pathway to first place for rosters that went a different direction at high-priced wr”)

COOK + KINCAID ANGLE ::

would you pay $12.1k ($2k to $3k more than we’re often willing to pay for cmc, jsn, puka, or “jt in the right matchup”) for the following game log? ::

30.9
35.6
40.2
55.6
50.3
53.9
44.3
38.4
26.7
42.5

we’ve talked a lot recently about what “full backfields + tight ends” (four players) have done v cincy this year — but that list is “lead rb + te v cincy” across the bengals’ last 10 games. (and while i won’t take the time to dig even deeper here, i feel confident in saying that each of the scores above represents one of the best scores of the season — and in many cases, the best score of the season — for the rb + te combos on that list).

that list, of course, doesn’t tell the full story, either.

30.9 — bal — has two main tight ends
35.6 — ne — has a split backfield
40.2 — pit — has a split backfield and a split tight end room
55.6 — chi
50.3 — nyj
53.9 — pit — has a split backfield and a split tight end room
44.3 — gb
38.4 — det — has a split backfield
26.7 — den — has a split backfield
42.5 — min

in the seven healthy games kincaid has played, james cook + kincaid have combined for scores of:

41.6
39.9
24.7
35.5
41.4
37.2
36.0

that almost makes you feel comfortable with a $12.1k price tag right there (six of seven games going for 35+) — and they’re playing an opponent that has allowed 35+ to eight of the last 10 “lead rb + lead te” combos they’ve faced, including six games of 40+ and three games of 50+.

i’ve been trying to figure out how to attack this game.

if kincaid comes back this week, this looks like an obvious way to do so.

PRE-TOUCHDOWN PRODUCTION COMPARISON ::

here’s a look at pre-touchdown fantasy scoring among some of the key players on this week’s slate:

19.0 (2.18x) — puka (but only 14.9 (1.71x) across his last five games since he returned from injury)

18.3 (2.03x) — jsn (includes 3 points for the hundred-yard bonus eight times, along with seven touchdowns)

17.7 (2.01x) — achane (7 games without tyreek, minus the weird game in cleveland) || also has the 100-yard bonus (worth half a touchdown) in four of seven, and has 7 tds in these 7 games

17.1 (2.14x) — mcbride in seven games with brissett (also has 7 touchdowns in these 7 games)

16.7 (2.04x) — ja’marr chase (we don’t have a representative sample, of course; but it’s fair to copy/paste his season-long numbers here)

14.5 (1.86x) — james cook; though if we want to cheat a bit and remove his three worst games (assuming this isn’t a spot where those games would be representative of baseline expectations), he jumps to 16.5 (2.12x)

12.6 (1.94x) — chris olave

12.3 (1.81x) — josh jacobs (removing the game in which he got injured)

12.3 (1.84x) — chase brown (we don’t really have a representative sample for him, as he has played very few games with burrow (a boost) and perine (a detriment), but this feels like roughly his expected range in his current split-backfield role

12.0 (1.85x) — breece hall

10.8 (1.64x) — kyren williams

10.6 (2.12x) — tyler warren

10.6 (1.68x) — travis etienne

10.2 (1.89x) — michael pittman (pittman also has more touchdowns than most players priced this low)

10.2 (2.00x) — alec pierce

10.1 (1.31x) — davante adams (lol)

9.8 (2.51x) — brenton strange (taking out the game in which he got hurt; he has only one touchdown in his six healthy games, but he does have a matchup boost here)

9.7 (2.26x) — dalton kincaid (taking his seven healthy games — with four touchdowns in those games and a matchup boost here)

9.3 (2.33x) — juwan johnson

9.2 (2.19x) — kyle pitts (with an increased role in the “cousins, no london” offense, and in a matchup boost — though with only one touchdown on the year)

9.2 (1.44x) — quinshon judkins

8.5 (1.55x) — troy franklin

ranking those by salary multipliers:

2.51x — brenton strange
2.33x — juwan johnson
2.26x — dalton kincaid
2.19x — kyle pitts
2.18x — puka (if you want to take his season-long numbers; 1.71x since coming back)
2.14x — trey mcbride
2.12x — tyler warren
2.04x — ja’marr chase
2.03x — jsn
2.01x — de’von achane
2.00x — alec pierce
1.94x — chris olave
1.89x — michael pittman
1.86x — james cook
1.85x — breece hall
1.84x — chase brown
1.81x — josh jacobs
1.68x — travis etienne
1.64x — kyren williams
1.55x — troy franklin
1.44x — quinshon judkins
1.31x — davante adams

this list is a reminder to us that tight ends and high-priced players tend to perform best in this metric (with high-priced players often likelier to hit the bonus, score touchdowns, and see production swings to the upside as well).

i’ve been heavy all season on “two te, squeeze in multiple high-priced pieces” builds. this is a glimpse into why this has worked so well.

JM’S PLAYER GRID STATUS ::

I don’t know that I necessarily LIKE this slate, but I do feel like I’m seeing it well. With the extra time available on my end and a slate that’s making sense to me, I’ve been crafting my initial Player Grid shape early this week — so let’s dive into what I’m currently seeing:


LIGHT BLUE ::

JSN :: The Vikings are not a good matchup for quarterbacks, but a matchup (indoors) against a more static Atlanta D should allow JSN to bounce right back to his normal range of production. He entered last week with only one game all season under 20.3 DK points (four games of 29+), and I expect him to bounce right back this week.

James Cook :: We’ve covered this one already, but it’s a great matchup, and the Bills are leaning on him at the moment.

Achane :: We hit on this toward the tail end of last week, when I started coming around on Achane as a guy I wanted to make non-negotiable for my Week 13 builds. His pre-touchdown production justifies the price tag, and the fact that he has scored seven touchdowns in seven games without Tyreek is an added boost.

Trey McBride :: I would rank Cook // Achane // McBride as follows :: Cook > Achane > McBride. Tight end has a lot of quality, cheap options, while running back is pretty thin outside the top. There also aren’t many quality salary savers away from tight end — all of which might make it tough to create space for McBride in what could prove to be a tough matchup vs the Rams. But if there’s no Marvin Harrison Jr. again, a strong case can be made for finding a way to play him.



BUILD-AROUND ::

Colts pass catchers :: You may have noticed that all of Warren // Pittman // Pierce popped in terms of pre-touchdown production. I expect Liam Coen to find a way to score points here, and the Jags have been a major pass funnel on the season. These guys are in a weird price range if you’re trying to pay up for as many high-priced guys as possible; but if not for that, I would probably have a rule this week of “make sure I include at least one Colts pass catcher on every roster.” It’s not that I necessarily expect a definite smash game from one of these guys. It’s more that I think solid scores will be tough to find on this slate, and we’re highly likely to get a solid score from at least two of these guys.

Bills :: I’ll have the Cook + Kincaid block in the Building Blocks. This will serve to shout out the fact that Josh Allen can be considered/added as well.

>>


BUILDING BLOCKS ::

Cook + Kincaid :: I’m really hoping Kincaid is healthy this week. If he is, I might end up playing this on all four of my rosters. (And if he’s not, I’m guessing I’ll have Cook on every roster. It’s early to make a statement like that, of course — but that’s at least how I’m seeing this slate at the moment.)

Lawrence + Jakobi + Strange :: It’s looking like Parker Washington will miss, and this block ($15k) has already posted 56.5 // 50.4 in their last two games (with Washington leaving last week’s game early). The Jags are leading this division, have won games against the 49ers and Chiefs, and have crushed the Chargers at home — and yet, they’re underdogs against the Colts. I’m not saying that’s wrong or right. I’m just looking at it from the Jags’ perspective. I think this is a classic showcase/statement-type game for the Jags. That’s also not to say they’ll win. I just think Coen will have a great game plan here, and there’s a good chance the team executes his plan. That’s a short way of saying: I think the Jags play well here, on offense. This is a good way to try to capture that potential.




QB ::

Tyrod Taylor :: Right now, my QB list is only Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, and Tyrod Taylor — and I’m not totally sure I would play Tyrod with a stacking partner. (It’s a tough spot for wideouts. And I’m not sure I trust Mason Taylor, especially with so many quality low-cost tight ends on the board.) I’m guessing I’ll find one or two more quarterbacks to consider as this week moves along; but I have built a few practice rosters so far that use naked Tyrod to open salary for other things I’m trying to attempt.



RB 1A ::

Currently none



RB 1B ::

Chase Brown + Perine block :: We covered this yesterday. This block has recently gone for 4x their combined salary, and three of the last 10 backfields against the Bills have posted a score that would be 4x (or better) the combined salary of these two. You could comfortably call it a 15% to 20% chance that this pairing keeps you on a 200-point pace. That’s easily strong enough for consideration on this week. (If not for the fact that so many other backfields have finished under 20 vs the Bills, and that Cincy isn’t great at running the ball, this would be in the 1A section for me.)

Quinshon Judkins :: Especially if Sampson misses, a 3x to 4x is in play. This is volume-based, as Tennessee has been solid against running backs of late (outside of touchdowns allowed), and they will surely try to force Shedeur to beat them. 25 carries for under 100 yards is not out of the question for Judkins, and we’re probably looking at 11-16 DK points before touchdowns (small receiving role, with 80-100 yards a decent expectation on the ground). But one or two touchdowns is also a possibility.

Devin Neal :: He had over 75% of the backfield touches last week, and while it’s a bad matchup on the ground vs Tampa (with bad game environment expectations), the Bucs have allowed the 11th most catches and the most receiving yards to running backs. At a cheap price tag, I’ll keep him in mind.


RB2 ::

Currently none

>>


WR 1A ::

Puka Nacua — His snap count is back up, and his target rate is there, but it’s still tough to ignore the “low for price” pre-touchdown production since he came back from injury (especially when touchdown production is not a big part of his game). Still, if looking under the hood (and trusting what you see), he’s an ultra-strong play.

Ja’Marr Chase — Same as Puka :: just because he’s not in the Light Blue section doesn’t mean I dislike him. With both of these guys, I’m looking for ways to play them. But this is what WR1s have done v Buffalo on the season:

6.2 — dk
8.5 — nico with mills
9.0 — egbuka
19.4 — waddle
18.6 — rashee
16.9 — tmac
34.8 — london
27.6 — diggs
9.0 — olave
15.9 — tyreek
9.0 — garrett wilson
31.1 — flowers

The bottom six games on this list (Flowers through London; three games in six of 27+) came before Maxwell Hairston made his way onto the field. The other six games (TMac through DK; no games over 20) came with Hairston playing. Hairston hasn’t lit the world on fire, but he has made this a more competent unit — and when you mix that with McDermott’s ability to scheme away passing production, this has made a difference.

Now, we’re still talking about “Burrow to Chase” here, which keeps him in the mix for me. But we should be aware of the challenges the matchup presents.

Michael Wilson :: if no MHJ.

Colts :: Covered in Build-Around



WR 1B ::

Emeka Egbuka :: The production hasn’t been there, but the usage has been, with Mayfield’s struggles dragging down the production. With a healthier offensive line, Bucky Irving back on the field, and a matchup against the Saints, passing volume may not play in our favor here, either — but Egbuka is at least worth keeping in consideration.

Jakobi Meyers :: Covered in Jags Block; he’s on the border of 1B/1A for me — but I prefer him in the block over playing him as a one-off.

Christian Watson :: He’s on the border of 1B/2, mostly because it’s hard to figure how this game plays out. But within the runout for this game is the Bears doing well on offense, and the Packers getting aggressive. If that happens, we would have opportunities for a spiked week from Watson.

>>


WR2 ::

Troy Franklin :: This is a bet on his role bouncing back, in a good spot, after Pat Bryant stole some snaps and targets last week. We’re still relying on a low-efficiency connection with Nix for this to hit (in addition to some newly-added usage guesswork), but there is enough price-considered ceiling to justify the gamble.

Terry McLaurin :: If he could get there against Denver, he can get there against Minnesota. He’s being targeted on over 40% of his routes, so they clearly want to keep him involved. I don’t think I’ll get here on tighter builds, but I do think he’s in play.

Jordan Addison :: If you want to bet on McCarthy finally putting things together, it probably makes sense to bet on the cheaper guy (Addison) who has the same ceiling as the more expensive guy (Jefferson) — though I’m fine with Jefferson through this angle as well. This is another one that makes the most sense, to me, in large-field play, but you could justify taking a swing on tighter builds.



TE1 ::

Tyler Warren :: Colts Build-Around

Dalton Kincaid :: Covered in Cook // Kincaid Block

Kyle Pitts :: (Yuck) With Cousins at quarterback and no Drake London, the targets are there, and Seattle filters targets to the position.

Brenton Strange :: Jags Block; underpriced for his role, and has a matchup boost.



TE2 ::

Brock Bowers :: I have a hard time seeing the Broncos let Bowers run free — but tight end is the clearest path to production vs Denver, so you can keep Bowers in mind. I prefer him in large-field play, or on rosters that are otherwise very high-confidence.

Mark Andrews :: It’s hard to see the Ravens lighting up the scoreboard here, and Andrews is so touchdown-heavy that I can’t quite view him as a TE1. But the matchup is good, and the ceiling is there.

Juwan Johnson :: We have a deep tight end pool this week, which probably leaves me off Juwan in a non-optimal matchup; but I won’t argue against going back here again, with his strong target volume in what’s sure to be a high-volume passing attack.



DST ::

Broncos — The Raiders are bottom two in sacks taken. The Broncos are top two in sacks. What a setup!

Browns — The Titans are bottom two in sacks taken. The Browns are top two in sacks. What a setup!




With all of this, it’s Wednesday. Some players will shift Grid slots for me. Some players will probably move off this list. Some players will probably be added. But on a slate that’s making sense to me, with extra time available on my end, this is what I’m seeing so far.

ROSTER CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS ::

I think RJ Harvey ultimately has to be in the pool as well.

It hasn’t been pretty, and the touch volume isn’t all that great, but with the touchdown equity and a game where the Broncos should do well, he has to be considered.

If you want more than one high-priced guy on a roster this week, it may also be one of those types of weeks where you have to take one cheaper swing.

I just built a roster with Perine as my RB2. (Didn’t love it — just making note of what I’ve tried, in order to make things work.)

I also just built a JSN // Cook roster (or Puka // Cook, allowing a move from Alex Pierce up to Michael Pittman), but in order to not be taking wild swings (i.e., in order for me to build from the typical areas I build from on the pool, above), I had to use Harvey at RB2.

I wouldn’t mind some value opening this week. But if it doesn’t, tough decisions will have to be made between “double pay-up with at least one uncomfortable play on the roster,” or “single pay-up and hope you’re grabbing enough certainty and ceiling.”

Breece Hall is another one who might make his way onto my list.

I’m poking around on some things and basically confirming that, yeah, my relatively narrow list may not become much broader.

I’m not sure I’m missing much at quarterback.

I’m honestly not missing much at running back (Jacobs is popping in projections and will likely be popular; but to me, Cook and Achane are head and shoulders above the other running back options — and it’s tough to pay up for both, which means I need to at least consider other backs and realize I may not absolutely love what I’m getting).

Projections and GPP Value rankings across the industry back up my list // sentiments at wide receiver.

And value is thin — which, again, means that in order to pull a double pay-up, we’ll probably be uncomfortable in at least one spot on our roster; and even if we’re not looking to pull a double pay-up, we’ll probably be uncomfortable somewhere.

BUCKY IRVING ANGLE ::

one running back who looks likely to go a bit overlooked is Bucky Irving.

Since taking on a larger share of the backfield work in Week 10 last year (a 13-game sample), he has scored 16+ DK points 10 times, and more importantly, he has scored 26+ four times.

He has averaged 14.6 pre-touchdown points per game across this stretch (2.09x — behind only Puka among wideouts and running backs on the list above), and if we take out the weird game against Las Vegas in this stretch where he scored only 2.8, that number climbs to 15.6 (2.23x — better than all other running backs and wide receivers on the list above, and better than all other players priced over $4.3k).

Touch counts in these games last year :: 16 // 18 // 28 // 5 (Las Vegas) // 17 // 19 // 24 // 21.

Touch counts in these games this year :: 18 // 23 // 29 // 20 // 19.

The Bucs’ rushing offense hasn’t been the same without Liam Coen, but the role and touch expectations are the same this year as they were last year — and he’s posting a still-elite 14.8 pre-touchdown points per game on the season (2.12x).

Best of all, he’s not really popping in projections. New Orleans faces the second highest opponent rush play rate in the NFL, and only four teams have allowed more RB rushing yards.

These underlying data points would technically slot him into the exact same price-considered category as James Cook and De’Von Achane (Light Blue Chip). Cook’s matchup is in a league of its own, of course; but “2025 Bucky” and “last 13 games Bucky” has even better price-considered “pre-touchdown” numbers than “Achane without Tyreek.” Achane (seven touchdowns in seven games — on an offense where he’s the main outlet for touchdowns) carries more ceiling than Bucky (eight touchdowns in this 13-game stretch). But if you have to save some salary to make something work, Bucky might make a ton of sense.

JOSH JACOBS THOUGHTS ::

I never like talking down a player, because weird things happen. Players hit. I prefer to focus on the plays I like, rather than the plays I don’t. But I do just want to mention :: early indications are that Josh Jacobs (popping in projections across the space) will be popular this week. So I just want to shout out: he has cracked 21 DK points twice this year :: against Cincinnati, and against early-season Dallas.

I cannot say what will happen in the small sample size of one slate. But if we played out this slate a hundred times, “Not playing high-owned Jacobs” would be an edge.

CHEAP WR // VALUE THOUGHTS ::

If we have to save salary at wide receiver, Burden might be the best option. He’s averaging 2.0x his salary in pre-touchdown points per game across his last four (of course, he hasn’t scored, so he’s also averaging 2.0x his salary overall in this stretch), and he has a skill set that can lead to spiked weeks. Basically, he’s not far behind the cheap tight ends who are attractive in this range, in terms of “scoring expectations without a touchdown” — and because he can “do it all” on one touch, he does have runouts to ceiling.

If Matthew Golden misses again and Jayden Reed remains out, Dontayvion Wicks, of course, is also in play down here.

THE BUILD STRATEGY MATTERS MORE ::

This week’s edge isn’t just about who you roster — it’s about how you construct around them. Inside, you’ll find real-time build philosophy, salary allocation strategy, bonus podcast breakdowns, and a detailed look at why certain defensive structures are quietly reshaping the ceiling-floor calculus for some of the slate’s biggest names. The framework here could change how you approach your entire lineup.

Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

I think this slate gives a false sense of security due to the three games that carry game totals north of 47.5 points. The Bengals and Bills have a game total of 53.0, but the pieces in that game require a very specific runout to be usable in a GPP setting. The Rams and Cardinals have a 47.5 game total, but the chances of the game turning into something we had to have are relatively low. I have much more trepidation about the Colts and Jaguars game because of the moving pieces that were discussed in that game’s write-up, primarily the injuries to Daniel Jones and Sauce Gardner. Because of my view on those three games, what games are we attacking this week? Where is the certainty? To me, the certainty is in individual players. That’s a very unique setup to the slate and requires us to do things slightly differently when generating leverage, which we will discuss further below.

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster, while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be, meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

MICHAEL WILSON

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Wilson saw target totals of 18 and 15 in the two games that Marvin Harrison Jr missed. MHJ is out this week, and he is joined by Greg Dortch on the sidelines. It is highly likely, given the recent trends from the Cardinals, that Wilson pierces double-digit targets against the Rams.

JAMES COOK

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Cook has averaged 24.5 DK points per game in wins this season, hitting 20 points or higher in seven of eight wins. The Bills are 6-point favorites at home in the highest game total of the week.

DE’VON ACHANE

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Achane has the most robust workload in the league over the previous month of play, accounting for almost 50% (!!!) of the team’s opportunities since Week 10.

JOSH JACOBS

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Jacobs has not gone over 100 yards once this season and continues to see his workload limited when he has been on the injury report. He was limited on Wednesday and Thursday with a knee injury this week after being confined to 58% of the offensive snaps or fewer the previous four instances where he found himself on the injury report. I have my concerns.

JA’MARR CHASE

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Chase is never a “bad” play on paper, but his chances of returning a score you could not win without a relatively low against the Bills. Furthermore, it makes most sense theoretically to play Chase with Josh Allen as a way to capture bulk upside from two players that could put the slate out of reach, which eats up a ton of salary on a slate where the most certainty resides in the top tier of player pricing at running back.

ADONAI MITCHELL

EXPANSIVE CHALK. This appears to be the field’s “skeleton key” this week, but I caution against being overconfident in a highly volatile player. Mitchell’s range of outcomes is about as wide as we can find on the slate, a setup we typically want to be buying into at low ownership and largely avoiding at high ownership.

CHRISTIAN WATSON

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Watson plays on a low pass volume offense that typically spreads the football around, one that could also be getting back one of the pieces that have been missing in recent weeks. It appears the field is overrating the importance of Watson’s 10-target game last week.

CHALK BUILD::

Kevin Adams is the founder of StatRankings, former founder Elite Fantasy & FTN, and a longtime DFS player/bettor with countless DFS finals, GPP wins, and a Top-20 BBM3 finish

Welcome to ONE WEEK STATS – a new weekly series designed to give you an edge using advanced data from StatRankings.com.

Each week, we’ll go position by position, breaking down 2-4 players at QB, RB, WR, and TE through the lens of advanced stats, helping you spot trends, matchup edges, and hidden value for the upcoming DFS main slate. 

QB

By The Numbers is a weekly matchup visual created using public data from NFLverse. For more understanding of each metric, use By The Numbers Guide.

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

---

OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

---

Sunday Morning Update

Here’s a look at my exposures on the weekend, and how I’m attacking this slate ::

The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

---

Bottom-Up Build

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K

Trevor Lawrence
James Cook
RJ Harvey
Luther Burden
Alec Pierce
Michael Pittman
Brenton Strange
Colston Loveland
Browns

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = $100 paid out to the winner(!) (OR free Bink Machine access!)

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

---

Blue Chips

None

But after a Week 13 in which we had no Light Blue plays either, that section is full of plays this week(!).

“Light Blue” Chips

---

Build-Arounds

---

Building Blocks

“Kings of the South”

Trevor Lawrence + Jakobi Meyers + Brenton Strange

Story:

“Liam Coen has a plan”

Why It Works:

I’m thinking about this game from the Jags’ perspective. They are 8-4 with wins over San Francisco, Kansas City, and (a beatdown against) the Chargers. They are in first place in the division over a Texans team that the national media is fawning over and a Colts team that people have been treating as a true contender out of the AFC all year. Again: we’re 13 weeks into the season, and it’s not the Texans or Colts who are in first place in this division. It’s the Jags. And here they are hosting the Colts, as underdogs.

We know that Liam Coen has to work around the inconsistencies of Lawrence, but he’s been doing a great job of this lately. Since the Jags’ bye, they have scored 30 vs the Raiders, 29 vs the Texans(!), 35 vs the Chargers(!), 27 vs the Cardinals, and 25 vs Tennessee (in a game where they took their foot off the gas early). No team has topped 30 vs the Colts this year…but no other team had topped 20 vs the Texans, and only the Dolphins (27) and Colts (38) had topped 21 vs the Chargers.

Doesn’t this just feel like the type of game where the Jags will find a way to score points? (And if they do, doesn’t this feel like the type of game where the Colts will find a way to keep the pressure on?)

I won’t try to pretend that this is comfortable; but it’s not a particularly comfortable/confident week at the quarterback position, which has me feeling comfortable leaning into a pretty obvious way in which this game could play out. I’m betting on Liam Coen; and if he has a plan here, I expect these to be the guys who benefit the most.

How It Works:

This block should be played with a bring-back (see “Colts Pass Catchers” Build-Around, above), and can be played with two. You can also, of course, play just one of these pass catchers with Lawrence (a lot of his ceiling throughout his career has come from rushing production), and if you want to swap Parker Washington or even Brian Thomas Jr. into this block, you can.

Variations of this block will probably be moderately popular this week, so don’t expect this to set you apart if it hits. But if it does hit, you’ll be in great shape, and the rest of your roster can do the remaining bit of lifting from there.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“Taylor Squared”

---

Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

100% Cook

As I’ve mentioned all season: I’ve been heavy SE/3-Max this year, and have been using the Bink Machine to shop through ideas.

THIS WEEK HAS BEEN ESPECIALLY VALUABLE IN THIS REGARD(!).

First, I crossed out everyone who wasn’t a Light Blue or Tier 1 option, with the exception of:

• 5% to 10% opened up for each “Cheap with Upside” wide receiver option
• 5% to 8% opened up on each of my non-Light-Blue running backs

I then ran hundreds of rosters to see A) what all the various permutations of “two to three Light Blue plays on one roster” might look like, and to see B) if leaning into some of the cheaper guys I hadn’t been hand-building around might create a light-bulb roster I would not have gotten to on my own. (I have at least one roster I expect to put into play from this latter pile.)

On a week like this, where I believe I have a good feel for the slate, but the roster mechanics are tight, I find this part of my process to be especially valuable.

I had several rules I locked in for these builds (note: if I were running a set of 150 rosters for MME, these rules might be a bit different; but for creating rosters I wanted to shop through for SE/3-Max ideas, these made sense), including:

• 100% of Mason Taylor has Tyrod Taylor
• 100% of Jakobi Meyers has Trevor Lawrence
• 80% of Brenton Strange has Trevor Lawrence
• 70% of Dalton Kincaid has James Cook
• 90% of Chase Brown has Samaje Perine (and vice versa)

But the rule I wanted to highlight here, as it will definitely apply to my hand-builds this week ::

100% JAMES COOK.

He’s not 100% certain to hit, of course.

But I expect to have him on all my SE/3-Max rosters this week.

Lock button highlighted on James Cook.

$4.33/Week!

At $39 for rest-of-season (playoffs included!), you can grab the Bink Machine for only $4.33/week.

If you try it and find it isn’t a valuable tool for you, just let us know, and we’ll refund your money.

The Bink Machine is not just for MME players(!). It’s an incredibly powerful process-enhancer for SE/3-Max // hand-building as well.

AGAIN: No risk. If you try it, and it isn’t a fit for you, just let us know, and we’ll send you back your money.

Bonuses

---

If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Josh Allen || Trevor Lawrence || Tyrod Taylor

RB ::

---

A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my Fanduel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

The Core ::

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::

• James Cook – Cook is coming off a 35-touch performance against a solid Steelers defense and now has one of the best possible matchups for a running back in a critical matchup. Elite talent, volume, matchup, and game environment.
• Josh Jacobs – Jacobs had a full practice on Friday and handled 18 touches last week against Detroit. The engine of Green Bay’s offense should be busy in an elite matchup and high leverage game. Salary down $1,000 from its peak.
• Breece Hall – Let’s not forget that Miami was a defense we were targeting not that long ago. A recent improvement in performance doesn’t make them a team to avoid and Hall has elite talent and volume on his side at a reasonable salary.
• Kenneth Walker – A week after being extremely popular, Walker has an even better matchup at lower ownership in a game Seattle’s offense is highly likely to be successful in. 
• RJ Harvey – The Broncos are going to use multiple RBs, but Harvey is the primary guy and this spot is elite for the entire team. He catches some passes and is the goal line back. Denver might roll in this one and Harvey’s ceiling is enormous with 20-touch potential.
• De’Von Achane – His salary is really starting to get up there, but the Jets just gave up a massive game to Bijan and in this spot I would expect Achane to be targeted often in the passing game. 
• Quinshon Judkins – I don’t expect the Titans offense to have much success, which means elevated play volume for the Browns who are focused on getting Judkins the ball at a high rate. The overall game environment is low, but he has a high probability of being involved in any touchdowns Cleveland scores.

Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

VOTE SONIC

Grinding all week. Landing the perfect stack. Gracefully mixing in a secondary stack. Skillfully plucking two pieces from an alternate game environment. Choosing the right combo of workhorse running backs… only to fall 29 points shy of first place because your DST didn’t hit the lottery. WTF.

This is why my campaign platform remains simple: abolish DST.
Until that glorious day, we fight the good fight — embracing correlation, punting quarterback vanity, and attacking leverage spots the field is too scared (or too rational) to touch.

Some of these are not for the faint of heart. These are players I’ll be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses while adding correlation. Keep this stuff out of your cash games for god’s sake.

*Ownership projections are subject to change before lock. Check OWS projections on Sunday morning. 

Secondary Core-Relations

COLTS / JAGUARS

Most of my practice builds this week keep pulling me into this game. Even the “popular” pieces here are still in single-digit ownership, and the environment has real upside without requiring you to drag either quarterback along for the ride. Grab a piece from either side, pair it with the über-cheap QBs or with Josh Allen — who we know can drop a 40-burger out of nowhere — and suddenly your little bargain-bin quarterback becomes completely irrelevant.

Colts Players:

Tyler Warren — $5,000 (12.1%), Jonathan Taylor — $9,300 (11.2%), Alec Pierce — $5,100 (8.8%), Michael Pittman Jr. — $5,400 (7.2%)

Jaguars Players:

Brenton Strange — $3,900 (7.5%), Jakobi Meyers — $5,700 (7.2%), Brian Thomas Jr. — $5,900 (2.7%)

Harold Fannin Jr. / Gunnar Helm

At a glance, this looks gross and totally lacking ceiling. A peek into their roles and pre-touchdown production — and then a hard stare at what you can do with your roster with the savings and the complete disregard for ownership going forward — gives me a protrusion in my nethers.

Fannin — $3,700 (6.9%), Helm — $2,900 (1.5%)

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

Welcome to Papy’s Process! This article will be a change of pace from Papy’s Pieces, which highlighted six players ranging from low to high in DFS price. This season, my goal is to focus on lineup building process, while giving the OWS family an inside look at the way I make my lineups. My typical betting pattern revolves around my “tighter builds.” For me, that phrase refers to the five lineups where I’ll bet most of my money for the week. My “main lineup” will be in single entry contests, whereas the next four will be spread out in 3-entry max contests. All five of those lineups will also be entered in large field GPPs. My remaining fifteen lineups will be in large field GPPs and 20-entry max contests. I refer to those as “Milly Maker” lineups, which are entered exclusively in large field, small buy-in tournaments.  My betting strategy means that my tighter builds will typically determine my weekly profitability, and most of my focus for the week is on those lineups. With that in mind, here is how I’m breaking down the slate.

Picking Games

Week 14 has four games that pique my interest:

• Bengals @ Bills (53.5)
• Colts @ Jaguars (47.5)
• Rams @ Cardinals (47.5)
• Commanders @ Vikings (43.5)

I like them for DFS in that order and will target players in those contests for my tighter builds.

Bengals @ Bills (53.5)

The game of the week, this one isn’t going to sneak up on anyone. The total is well above the field, but it’s not an especially easy game to target for DFS. James Cook looks like a premier play, but after him, the Bills side is messy. Josh Allen costs a pretty penny, and while he’s certainly playable, none of his stacking partners inspire much confidence. If Dalton Kincaid misses another game, Dawson Knox will be a screaming value, but he’ll still likely need to fall into the end zone to matter. If Kincaid plays, it’s tough to want either guy, but I’d probably lean towards using Kincaid. Kahlil Shakir will probably have an acceptable game, but it’s tough to see him producing a must-have score even if this game produces a ton of points. The Bengals passing game is simple. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are always playable as a stack, but they cost a lot, and this matchup favors running the ball. Chase Brown is still affordable enough to play, but Samaje Perine put a real dent in his playing time and soaked up 14 carries last week. I’m not off Brown, but it’s tough to get excited about him even with the return of Burrow. Despite the high total, it’s difficult to play full game stacks, and I’ll probably end up using a mini correlation of Cook + Chase or Higgins on my main roster. This game is also expected to see snow, but as of this writing, the winds appear low. Snow on its own isn’t enough to lower our expectations (certain retired pocket passers, notably Tom Brady, have said they preferred light snow because it slowed down the pass rush). The total hasn’t reacted either, still sitting around 53.

Colts @ Jaguars (47.5)

This game offers a ton of stacking potential since both passing games are cheap. If you want to afford the top RBs, you must save somewhere, and it’s difficult to save enough without using a cheap stack. Trevor Lawrence is affordable and can be used with Brian Thomas, Jakobi Meyers, or Brenton Strange. This game has a healthy total, and both teams are likely to try to win through the air. It feels like a game that could play out as a low scoring, playoff style dud between two teams that desperately need to win, or a game that could break the slate with several cheap passing game pieces that pay off their salary. The risk here is that the Jaguars have been heavily favoring the run since their bye. That could change in a game where they might need to keep up, as opposing offenses have treated the Jaguars defense as a pass funnel. The Jags have faced the highest PROE, and if the Colts score, the Jags could open up their offense. My favorite way to play this game is T-Law + Meyers + Strange + Pittman or Pierce. A stack from this game is likely to make my main team.

Rams @ Cardinals (47.5)

The Cardinals have been throwing at a silly rate since Jacoby Brissett took over at QB. They have the highest PROE in the league since he became the starter, and it’s not close. Trey McBride has seen his price rise to a level that is hard to justify, but he clearly has the highest raw points projection at TE. Michael Wilson will once again be a screaming value and one of the slate’s most popular players. It’s a tough matchup against the Rams defense, but Wilson has been a target hog in games without Harrison, and the Cardinals are doing nothing but throwing. The Rams are also tricky to utilize with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams priced near the top of the slate. I’d rather pay for Puka between the two, and it’s difficult to afford a Rams double stack. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are splitting work, and if their efficiency ever drops, they’re both going to be bricks. This game is likely to produce points, but it’s tough to target in DFS. My favorite way to stack this game is Brissett + Wilson + Puka

Commanders @ Vikings (43.5)

This game has the potential to go overlooked, but like the Ind/Jax game, it offers cheap stacks that allow for expensive RBs. J.J. McCarthy does not look good, but he has flashed, and the Commanders defense has been generous. McCarthy is stackable with Justin Jefferson on the cheap, and it doesn’t cost much to add Jordan Addison or T.J. Hockenson. The Commanders are also all values with Jayden Daniels set to return from a gruesome left elbow dislocation. Terry McLaurin looked all the way back last week, and all of a sudden, the Commanders passing attack is dangerous. Daniels can be paired with F-1, Deebo, Samuel, or Zach Ertz. My two favorite ways to play this game are McCarthy + Jefferson + Addison + Hockenson + F1, or Daniels + F1+ Deebo + Ertz + Jefferson. I’ll overstack this game from both sides because I see it taking off, or totally disappointing, depending on how the QBs play.

Key Values

Trevor Lawrence ($5,400)

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 14 Topics

1. A Unique Slate

2. Setting Expectations

3. Value Plays

4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

---

1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

The Question ::

A weekly staple of The Oracle: “what makes this slate unique?” 

The Answers ::

JM >>

I’ll speak through the lens of how this slate shapes up for me ::

It’s a very straightforward week.

Now. That does not mean that it will be a profitable week.

Last week was NOT a straightforward week, and it was a great week for me // for us.

We’ve had other straightforward weeks that were hugely profitable (the first “Brissett without MHJ” week, for example), and we’ve had other weeks that were straightforward and unprofitable, too.

Also, just because this week is straightforward for me — i.e., straightforward based on how I attack a slate, and based on what makes the most sense to me — doesn’t mean it’s straightforward for everyone. But for me, this week has been “easy.” This week has made sense.

I’ve spent a lot of time digging into what this means, and my Player Grid and Winner Circle pods are the best place to go for a deeper dive; but in short, I think salary allocation will be a big part of this week. I think stacking as many high-confidence plays as possible onto a roster will be a big part of this week. And I think there are clear/straightforward ways to do this.

I don’t know if things will break my way. But I know I’ll be happy with the way I played.

Xandamere >>

I’m not sure about unique, but after what felt like a gross slate this one feels more “normal.” There are a few higher-total spots to consider attacking, some interesting lower-confidence but also lower-owned pivots…I feel like we’ve had a couple of icky slates and now we’re back to normal. 

One other thing is we’re now far enough into the season that I think it’s time (or even past time) to start questioning what we know from past years. Are the Ravens a good offense? Well, this year with Lamar at QB they’ve only reached the 30 point mark….twice. Last year they did so ELEVEN times. It’s always tricky trying to figure out when something is different and it’s just a small sample size, just variance that will normalize with time, versus when something is different and it’s a real change that is likely to be lasting…and I’m not saying the Ravens are now terrible or anything (they’re not!), but we should probably start thinking “hmm, maybe they WON’T bounce back, maybe this isn’t just variance?” Same applies to the Eagles offense. There are other spots we could talk about, too. 

I’m probably on the slower end of the curve when it comes to adjusting my prior beliefs. I tend to immediately go to “variance,” and maybe that’s not always correct – but that’s just me. You should consider where YOU fall on this spectrum – just variance? Real change that’s likely to be sticky?

Hilow >>

To me, this slate carries far less directional certainty than the previous few slates, at least as far as team and game environments are concerned. The directional certainty I’m seeing on this one is instead confined to individual players, which sets up a different avenue of attack than I have utilized in recent history. Instead of my primary stacks being the anchors of my rosters, as was the case the previous few slates, it’ll likely be a select core of players that I will then build various stacks around. There are two primary theoretical concerns when a slate like this one pops up: (1) how we generate our leverage takes on a new form, and (2) are we missing anything in our diagnosis of where the most certainty comes from.

Mike >>

To me, the feeling I get the closer we get to Sunday is that there are some spots that will likely play a large part in deciding the slate where talent will overcome a perceived difficult matchup and/or a game environment will turn into something unexpected as opposing offenses interact and compete. We also have some spots where talented players may have expanded roles and whether or not they make the most of those opportunities will change the outlook for everything. Finally, the Arizona passing game is a spot with very high expectations and certainty from a likely game script perspective and will be a very popular spot (especially Michael Wilson). Whether that spot just ends up as a “solid” one or the Cardinals drop an avalanche of fantasy points will likely determine the slate.

---

2. Setting Expectations

The Question ::

We have had some wildly high scoring slates this season. Some have been somewhat predictable due to value, mispriced players, and/or multiple crazy game environments. Others have been a bit surprising but were spurred by elite individual ceiling performances. On the flip side, we are coming off the lowest scoring slate of the season, “winter is coming”, and this is an 11-game slate with eight of those games having totals of 45 or less. The challenge, and beauty, of DFS is that every week we are solving a different puzzle. Part of that means that understanding what the puzzle is likely to look like when we are finished is just as important as finding the right pieces. There were players on winning rosters last week who would never give you a shot to win in other weeks. Likewise, there have been performances in some higher scoring weeks this season that were “meh” within the context of that slate, but if you dropped them into Week 13 they would have been “must have”.

With all of that as a backdrop, the question here is what kind of slate do you expect this to be? And following up, how does that expectation affect your thoughts on roster construction and/or player selection (if at all)?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

Every week has its own personality. The fun (and sometimes maddening) aspect of each week is that we’re “supposed” to learn from the previous one. Of course, if we did learn something from each and every slate (and we’ve been doing this for a while), we’d feel stuck in mud when building lineups. Instead, what’s easiest is trying to identify the few learnings we’ve had recently and applying those to the upcoming slate. We’d hope that somewhere along the way, we’re applying some core principles stuff we’ve picked up and built in without even thinking about it. That sums up how I feel about approaching this Sunday, as I’m feeling more price-sensitive than ever. We’ve talked so much about cheap player blocks on this site over the years, and seen much success, but really, it has made me reflect even more on the value of a point-considered play for every roster spot. With the successes of blocks like Tyrod Taylor + AD Mitchell, Jacoby Brissett + Michael Wilson, and also how common double tight ends have been performing lately, I may be starting to shift in my DFS ways. I used to be a DFS player who was stubborn enough not to let pricing dictate the plays. But now, I’m feeling more like I want to make sure I am playing the right players at the right prices in lieu of sucking it up, and buying sans-discount, then prohibiting the rest of my lineup from making much sense. Feel free to call this the Warren Buffett mindset for Week 14 (buying good companies at value prices).

Winning rosters blend chalk and variance. Winning rosters won’t make us feel comfortable the moment they are built. Winning rosters should be built without the fear of failure. What follows here is going to be a bit more out there than typical. But as is the case late in the season, we just don’t know where the surprises may lie, so in larger field GPPs, we can play, fade, and hope! 

Bo Nix + Courtland Sutton + Pat Bryant + Brock Bowers

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas & Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those who focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way, without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I once again posted the highest score of the “Afternoon Only” slate in Week 15 of 2024, while being in contention late into the slate several times each season. I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS, and have OWS flags littering the leaderboards on this awesome slate.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 14 Overview

We have another three game slate this week, which will be our last one this small all season. Next week is a five game Afternoon slate, followed by a four game slate in Week 16, and then Week 17 and 18 are usually very big slates relative to what we see most of the season. Just something to keep in mind going forward, as next week’s five game slate is essentially 67% larger than this week’s slate and is therefore an entirely different animal. Here are some things that stand out to me on this short slate:

• The Broncos defense is in a spot where they could post a score that totally blows the other five away and becomes a clear must-have, similar to what we saw last week from Seattle. 
• At the tight end position, Trey McBride and Brock Bowers are both likely to be very popular on this slate, but there are some cheap tight ends in very good spots who I think could score 12 to 18 points. I would expect about 70% of rosters to use one of these two tight ends, while about 25% of rosters use neither of them. This leaves us with a situation where the 5% of rosters that use BOTH are an interesting way to build. Likewise, among the 25% of rosters that use neither of Bowers or McBride, I would expect very few two-tight-end rosters. Basically, what I am saying is that most rosters will have one of these two, and almost all two-tight-end rosters will have one of them. So, from a game theory perspective, playing both of them together or playing two of the cheap tight ends makes a ton of sense.
• The wide receiver position is kind of crazy this week, as Puka and Davante are the only options above $5,600, and they are respectively priced at $8,700 and $7,700. It is rare to have such a wide gap among the top players at the position, and especially at wide receiver.
• The CHI/GB game seems likely to be overlooked as the Broncos are in such a smash spot, and the LAR/ARI game is (rightfully) going to be the first game people gravitate towards.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position, but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, QBs obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Quarterback ::

• Josh Allen – Sometimes it doesn’t have to be difficult. The salary structure allows us to pay up for Allen on FanDuel without sacrificing too much and we know he can blow the slate away. We can stack him with Shakir or a tight end or not at all.
• Trevor Lawrence – On the other end of the salary spectrum from Allen, Lawrence provides us some cheaper upside with clear stacking partners in BTJ, Meyers, or Strange – all of whom are also cheap.
• Joe Burrow – Anytime you can play Burrow at low ownership in a game where the Bengals are likely to be trailing, you should.
• Matthew Stafford – The Rams have an elite setup this week with a great matchup in a dome and a high likelihood of scoring four or five touchdowns as they look to bounce back from last week’s loss.

Running Back::

• James Cook – Cook is coming off a 35-touch performance against a solid Steelers defense and now has one of the best possible matchups for a running back in a critical matchup. Elite talent, volume, matchup, and game environment.
• Kenneth Walker – A week after being extremely popular, Walker has an even better matchup at lower ownership in a game Seattle’s offense is highly likely to be successful in. 
• RJ Harvey – The Broncos are going to use multiple RBs, but Harvey is the primary guy and this spot is elite for the entire team. He catches some passes and is the goal line back. Denver might roll in this one and Harvey’s ceiling is enormous with 20-touch potential.
• Jonathan Taylor – Similar to Josh Allen, we can afford JT on Fanduel without compromising the rest of our roster. The Jaguars aren’t necessarily a matchup we usually target as on paper they are strong against running backs, but if JT dropped 40 this week our reaction would probably just be “oh yea, their performance against all those other RBs wasn’t really relevant here”.
• Josh Jacobs – Jacobs had a full practice on Friday and handled 18 touches last week against Detroit. The engine of Green Bay’s offense should be busy in an elite matchup and high-leverage game. 
• Breece Hall – Let’s not forget that Miami was a defense we were targeting not that long ago. A recent improvement in performance doesn’t make them a team to avoid and Hall has elite talent and volume on his side at a reasonable salary.
• Chase Brown – Great matchup, potential shootout, modest salary, modest ownership. 

Wide Receiver ::

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up over $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on FanDuel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on FanDuel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before they added bonuses for yardage totals, but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance, and since they carry so much weight on FanDuel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected, as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Jonathan Taylor + James Cook + Josh Jacobs

Tony focuses his DFS play on FanDuel single-entry and 3-max contests. He thrives in unique formats and positional twists, always looking for hidden edges that others overlook

This article is designed to complement Mike’s weekly Fanduel Player Grid and other OWS Fanduel scroll content by giving you my view on the slate from my perspective as a Fanduel player who focuses on smaller-field, SE/3-max types of tournaments. My usual process is to build a handful of unique lineups for these types of contests each slate and a majority of my weekly DFS bankroll is dedicated to them.

As you will see as you go through the article, based on the week at hand, I find what I think is the critical starting point I want to use for my rosters. This could be a certain game environment, a specific position or positional dynamics, extreme chalk pieces, or low-owned stacks that I am interested in. Each week is unique, so the “Starting Point” for each week will be dynamic and the rest of my thoughts will build from there, helping you see how I am building my lineups and allowing you to form your own thoughts.

Starting Point

• Week 14 is the final week of byes, leaving a FD main slate consisting of 11 games. There will be eight early kickoffs and three games starting in the later window. One game stands out immediately, the Bengals at Bills, with its whopping implied total of 53.0 points, with Buffalo favored by six. This looks to have all the makings of a shootout, with two elite QBs leading teams desperate for a late-season win. The issue, from a FD perspective, is the price tags of some of the key players here:
  • The previously mentioned QBs come with the 1st and 4th highest QB salaries on the slate
  • This game features three of the eight players on the entire slate with price tags of $9k+
• The Bengals do offer some more affordable pieces in the $7k range, and every Bills pass catcher is easily attainable, but to get into this game in a serious way will be costly. While I’ll certainly be looking to play some mini correlations and some of the key one-off plays from that key game in Buffalo, it’s a different AFC game, the Colts at Jaguars, that is the starting point I’m considering as I build my main SE/3-Max teams this week:
  • IND (24.0) at JAX (22.5) is the closest point spread of the FD main slate
  • While the 46.5 game total has come down a point since the opening line, it’s still the slate’s third-highest total after the Buffalo game and the Rams at Cardinals (47.5)
  • While this game does admittedly feature another of the premium-priced $9k options, everyone else in this game is affordable, including several of my favorite pass catchers in the ~$6k range.
  • I intend to play a full game stack here and probably one with each QB. I’ll also be featuring different mini correlations of the skill players from this game across most of my other lineups to allow me access to some combinations I’m looking to play from the other games.

Running Back Approach