Week 13 Matchups

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0:00 :: Browns // Titans
10:35 :: Raiders // Jets
18:54 :: Jaguars // Vikings
27:22 :: Bengals // Dolphins
35:29 :: Colts // Texans
45:18 :: Lions // Bears
53:26 :: Saints // Falcons
64:05 :: Giants // Seahawks
73:07 :: Rams // Cards
80:50 :: Patriots // Chargers
89:47 :: Eagles // Packers

Week 12 Recap, 2020

With JM, Scott Barrett, and Graham Barfield


Kickoff Wednesday, Dec 2nd 3:40pm Eastern

Ravens (
15.5) at

Steelers (
26)

Over/Under 41.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
7th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
10th DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
11th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
20th DVOA/29th Yards per pass
Steelers Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
2nd DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
19th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
16th DVOA/17th Yards per pass

UPDATED :: 12/1 @ 7.30 PM ET from Xandamere

JM Update Below

Wow has this game environment changed. It looks like the Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and Willie Snead on offense at the very least (Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins are not allowed on the flight to Pittsburgh today, but they're eligible to come off the Covid list on Wednesday with a negative test, so they could possibly drive themselves there or something and get tested...I guess. It's unlikely but possible). This means Robert Griffin III will be back on the NFL . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 1:00pm Eastern

Browns (
25) at

Titans (
29)

Over/Under 54.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Browns Run D
30th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
18th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
15th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
19th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Titans Run D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
8th DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
11th DVOA/17th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Titans like to run the ball, and this game sets up well for them to be able to do soThe Browns like to run the ball even more than the Titans, and they should be able to keep this game close enough to be able to do soThe Titans are the slightly better team in a handful of areas, which sets them up to "control this game, but not necessarily run away with it"There are elements to pay attention to for DFS, but nothing truly pops off the page

How Tennessee Will . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 1:00pm Eastern

Raiders (
27.75) at

Jets (
20.25)

Over/Under 48.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Raiders Run D
21st DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
21st DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
32nd DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
25th DVOA/11th Yards per pass
Jets Run D
9th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
6th DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
6th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
16th DVOA/8th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The matchup sets up better for the Raiders to pass, but we know they'll aim to keep the ball on the ground for as long as game flow allowsThe game environment (and personnel) sets up better for the Jets to pass...but Adam Gase is their head coach, which means run-heavy remains the befuddling name of the gameThe Raiders may not pull away immediately in this one, but they should very much be expected to control this gameIt's not the prettiest week for DFS, which opens a few spots to consider . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 1:00pm Eastern

Jaguars (
20.5) at

Vikings (
30.5)

Over/Under 51.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jaguars Run D
11th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
28th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
30th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
15th DVOA/20th Yards per pass
Vikings Run D
19th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
20th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
26th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Vikings are set up well in this spot to win the way they want to winThe Jags might think they are set up well in this spot as well, with Mike Glennon under centerThis game should eventually see the Vikings pulling away and leaning even more heavily on the run as the Jags begin to tilt toward the passThis game is not a fantasy wasteland, which is apparently saying a lot on this slate

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The trend continues on this slate, as this is our third game in . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 1:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
16.5) at

Dolphins (
26.5)

Over/Under 43.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
14th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
14th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
12th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
2nd DVOA/1st Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
9th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
4th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
25th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
7th DVOA/16th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Cincinnati is treading water here, just trying to gasp for airMiami is likely to control this game with their defense from the start, meaning their offense will be able to attack in any way they choose (which, as we’ll discuss below, depends largely on healthy offensive personnel)There are some intricacies to this game that are going to trip up a lot of people this week

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

Not much changed regarding plan of attack for the Bengals in Week 12 with Brandon Allen at quarterback, as they were . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 1:00pm Eastern

Colts (
26.5) at

Texans (
23.5)

Over/Under 50.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Colts Run D
15th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
32nd DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
13th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
31st DVOA/25th Yards per pass
Texans Run D
24th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
31st DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
18th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
32nd DVOA/31st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Indy will try to win this game the same way they always do: by spreading the ball around, and by being adaptableHouston will be without Will Fuller (and Randall Cobb) in this one; we should still expect them to lean on Deshaun Watson to keep their hopes afloatThis is one of the better "game environments" on the slateEven with the Colts spreading things around and the Texans playing their first game without Fuller, there are some pieces I'll be keeping in mind from this game

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

I would . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 1:00pm Eastern

Lions (
20.5) at

Bears (
23.5)

Over/Under 44.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Lions Run D
26th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
12th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
28th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
27th DVOA/18th Yards per pass
Bears Run D
29th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
15th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
7th DVOA/6th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Detroit now playing under interim head coach Darrell Bevell after the firing of Matt PatriciaHow Chicago wants to try to win and how they’ve been forced to try to win have largely been separate ideas this season; this game sets up well for them to try to win how they want to try to winNot much to love from this game save one player

How Detroit Will Try To Win ::

Therein lies the question this week. The lions fired head coach Matt Patricia following their Thanksgiving Day dismantling at the hands of the . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 1:00pm Eastern

Saints (
24.5) at

Falcons (
21.5)

Over/Under 46.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Saints Run D
21st DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
4th DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
11th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
17th DVOA/12th Yards per pass
Falcons Run D
23rd DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
22nd DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
19th DVOA/7th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Falcons have faced the second fewest rushes against and sixth most passes againstProbable that Julio Jones makes it back this week after missing last week’s win over the RaidersMatt Ryan has played only four games with both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley healthy this season, averaging 22.59 fantasy points in those weeks compared to 17.07 fantasy points per game in the other seven games, and surpassing 300 pass yards in three of four with both on the field compared to one of seven with one outMichael Thomas holds a 46.2 . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 4:05pm Eastern

Giants (
18.5) at

Hawks (
29.5)

Over/Under 48.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Giants Run D
32nd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
23rd DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
22nd DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
8th DVOA/24th Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
25th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
7th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
17th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
10th DVOA/29th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Seattle has slowed down the pass play rate and the early-down aggression as the season has moved alongThe Seattle defense has also improved, and this week they are taking on Colt McCoySeattle plays a high percentage of their games fairly closeNothing pops in this game, but this isn't a wasteland, either

How Seattle Will Try To Win ::

Well, it was fun while it lasted.

Through the first seven weeks of the season (the Seahawks’ first six games), only one team was throwing the ball at a higher rate on early downs with . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 4:05pm Eastern

Rams (
25.5) at

Cards (
23)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Rams Run D
7th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
27th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
20th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per pass
Cardinals Run D
27th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
24th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
19th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
22nd DVOA/30th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Two of the top six offenses in situation-neutral pace of play (first and sixth)Both teams are bottom half of the league in pass rate with the score within seven pointsBoth defenses are top half of the league in points allowed per gameAll of that comes together to form a game scenario that is likely to underwhelm, with no clear avenue for individual points to pile up; that said, there is a very real chance this game turns into a back and forth affair with heavy volume for each team, so the way . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 4:25pm Eastern

Patriots (
22.5) at

Chargers (
24.5)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Patriots Run D
10th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
22nd DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
3rd DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
17th DVOA/26th Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
29th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
21st DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
10th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
25th DVOA/20th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Patriots have created ugly game environments this season :: leaning run-heavy when they have the ball, and forcing opponents to play slowly and tilt run-heavy as wellThis game should stay relatively close throughout, but most paths don't have it pushing into high-scoring territoryAs with most spots on this strange slate: there are some "take it or leave it" pieces here, with nothing to truly love

How New England Will Try To Win ::

Nine teams have a higher Vegas-implied team total than the Chargers this week, and 13 teams have . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 4:25pm Eastern

Eagles (
21) at

Packers (
29)

Over/Under 50.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
19th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
3rd DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
15th DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Packers Run D
32nd DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
1st DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
8th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
6th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Clear avenues of least resistance for each team (Packers through the air and Eagles on the ground and through passes to the backfield); the Packers are likely to take advantage in this area, the Eagles are an unknownPackers are likely to stomp the Eagles in time of possessionThe tributary in this one is one of the most intriguing of the season

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Every week it seems like the Eagles have two separate offensive game plans, one for the first quarter with heavy Miles Sanders involvement and one for the . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 6th 8:20pm Eastern

Broncos (
19.25) at

Chiefs (
32.25)

Over/Under 51.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Broncos Run D
22nd DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
17th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
4th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
1st DVOA/2nd Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
17th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
29th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
22nd DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
28th DVOA/15th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
The Broncos visiting the Chiefs is not exactly the exciting Sunday night football matchup I was hoping for, but it’s ok, there’s still money to be made in Showdown slates! The Chiefs are a massive 13.5 point favorite in this 50.5 total game (meaning the poor Broncos are projected to score just 18.25 points while the Chiefs are at 31.25), Vegas is expecting a slaughter, and with a shaky Denver passing game against an elite Kansas City pass defense, that’s the most likely outcome...but there are still ways . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Dec 7th 5:00pm Eastern

WFT (
18.75) at

Steelers (
24.75)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Commanders Run D
10th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
10th DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
17th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
20th DVOA/29th Yards per pass
Steelers Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
29th DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
19th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
We get some extra Showdowns this week due to Covid rescheduling, and the first on Monday has the Washington Football Team visiting the Steelers. The game has a 43.5 total with the Steelers favored by 6.5; both teams boast strong defenses and this one is expected to be a low-scoring slog.
On the Pittsburgh side, James Conner will miss another game on the Covid list, which means Benny Snell will handle feature back duties. Last week Snell played 71% of the snaps to 19% for Anthony McFarland and seeing 20 total opportunities (including . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Dec 7th 8:15pm Eastern

Bills (
23) at

49ers (
25)

Over/Under 48.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bills Run D
3rd DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
13th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
9th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
3rd DVOA/5th Yards per pass
49ers Run D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
11th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
5th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Monday football comes to a close with Buffalo visiting San Francisco for a 47 game total with the home team favored by a point. Despite all of the injuries, San Francisco has held their own this year, despite being in a tough division. That has largely been driven by their defense, which is 9th in overall DVOA (pretty close to even vs. the run and the pass). The Bills started the season on a ridiculous offensive tear, stumbled through Weeks 5-8, but then put up 44, 30, and 27 points in their last three games . . .

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Kickoff Tuesday, Dec 8th 8:05pm Eastern

Cowboys (
18.5) at

Ravens (
27)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Cowboys Run D
5th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
2nd DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
3rd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
16th DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Ravens Run D
7th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
10th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
11th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
13th DVOA/10th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Week 13 wraps up with an odd Tuesday night game as Dallas visits Baltimore for a 45 total game in which Baltimore is favored by a whopping 8.5 points. Unsurprisingly, Dallas’ Andy Dalton-powered offense is not expected to do much against the elite Ravens D. The Ravens are also getting Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, and Mark Ingram back from the Covid list, though Mark Andrews and Willie Snead remain out.
On the Baltimore side, the running game that has been such a source of frustration seemed to clear up in Week 11, with . . .

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