Progress! After batting .450 for week one, I went ahead and added points to the average this week, dropping a .500 on ya! Friends, I’ll take it. And take this with a grain of salt – each week, we’ll make recommendations based on analysis, matchups, and opportunities. But this is just what volatile pass catchers do – especially tight ends. One week it’s 10-77-2, and then it followed up with 1-5-0. Not sure what to tell you about that. The wide receivers are a bit more stable, not that you could tell from my record. Long. Audible. Sigh. And without further ado, here are my Week 3 pass-catcher picks to click!
But first…
Last Week: 10-10 (.500))
– WR: 6-4 (60%)
– TE: 4-6 (40%)
2024 NFL Season: 19-21 (.475)
– WR: 11-9 (55%)
– TE: 8-12 (40%)
A quick note: Start your studs. Don’t Get cute.
Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
I love what I’m seeing from Rice, and I really like the setup this week. Pacheco is out for multiple weeks, and the RB room is, well, lacking. I actually like both Rice and Worthy to get involved this week, but Rice should be the one to see the most volume. Lots of short passes with YAC oppos all damn day. Worthy gets all the press for speed, but did you see Rashee’s house call last week? Cam Taylor-Britt did. Great target share, fantastic route participation, and, duh – it’s the Chiefs, and Patrick seems to love the kid. The floor looks super solid, though this looks like a ceiling week.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Wilson and Rodgers have yet to click fully, but those days are coming. True, this isn’t the Rodgers of yesteryear, but look what Wilson was able to do in this offense last year with a trash QB room. That was harsh… I apologize to Z. Wilson and Co. (I didn’t delete it, though, so am I really sorry?). Wilson’s route participation is ELITE (97%), and he already has 17 targets on the season. These two will figure it out, and I like it to happen this week. The Patriots were just roasted by D.K. Metcalf and have given up the fifth most points to the position on the season. I’m rolling the dice on Wilson returning top 10 value this week.
Honorable mention: Davante Adams, Brandon Aiyuk, Nico Collins
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
This isn’t rocket science. The Commanders offense is bad. Like bad-bad. McLaurin is the most talented receiver on the roster, but the opportunity isn’t there, and neither are the returns – 17 yards in Week 1 and 22 in Week 2. Don’t drop him; I’m not saying that. And hopefully, you have the WR depth to ride this out. But the Bengals are pretty good against the WR position this season (yielding the seventh fewest points to the position), so I don’t expect T-Mac to get it rolling this week. Plant his behind on your bench for this one, and don’t think twice about it.
Quentin Johnston, San Diego Chargers
Nope. Not buying it. One good week doesn’t erase the other 18 duds. I’m exaggerating a bit, but the point remains. He does lead the league in touchdown receptions, so there’s hope! Just not this week – terrible passing/run-heavy offense, injured QB, tough matchup (Pittsburgh), etc. Johnston is gifted, no doubt – he possesses a size/speed skillset that is virtually unmatched. And PFF actually ranks him 21st out of 107 qualifiers at the position. I just don’t like the Chargers offense in general (outside of J.K.), and I really don’t like them this week.
Honorable mention: Jayden Reed, Courtland Sutton, Brian Thomas Jr.
Same thing here – Start your studs. You didn’t draft them to overthink it each week.
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
The Panthers defense is bad, and they’ve been gouged a bit (18.45 points per game) by the tight end position to start the season. Bowers – despite having a rotten QB room – has actually looked the part. PFF loves him (3rd out of 69), and admittedly I’m smitten. Listen to these numbers – 16 targets (1st in the NFL amongst tight ends), 15 receptions (1st), and 156 yards (also 1st). The targets are there, the volume is there, and the touchdowns are going to follow. In fact, I expect one this week. He’s a tight end, so the duds will be there, too. But I like the matchup and opportunity this week – a lot.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
So I was one week early on Henry (reco’d as a week 1 start). Week 1 wasn’t it, but Week 2 was – 12 targets, eight grabs, 109 yards. We’ll book that every week if we can. The matchup isn’t great, and I may get snakebitten here again. But Brissett is going to lean on him in a tough matchup. And if he goes 6-50-0, that’s 11.0 in full PPR, which is top-10 territory. Like Bowers, Henry is amongst the leaders in targets, catches, and yards. He’s also got a 92.9% route participation – which is uber-elite for tight ends. I’m back in, Hunter, don’t let me down!
Honorable mention: Dallas Goedert, Colby Parkinson, Mike Gesicki
Tyler Conklin, New York Jets
Four targets. Two catches. Sixteen yards. TE1 for the New York Jets isn’t TE1’ing. And if you’ve watched A-a-ron throughout his career, he hates tight ends. He never uses them (other than a few games here and there), and this season is no different. And it’s not like the other tight ends on the roster are getting opportunities, either. When your own QB won’t trust you, I can’t either. The Patriots, for their part, are only giving up a handful of points to TE each game, so the matchup isn’t Conklin-friendly either. Stay away. In fact, run away. There are entirely better options out there.
Johnny Mundt, Minnesota Vikings
Until Hock comes back, it’s really a toss-up each week as to who is going to lead the Vikings’ tight ends in-game action. So far, it’s been Mundt. Yes, this feels a bit lazy, but he’s technically TE1 here, despite the complete lack of return. He’s had pretty good route participation, but it’s not translating into bankable points. Justin Jefferson is currently day-to-day, so Mundt may see a few more targets come his way in the event JJ doesn’t suit up. The matchup is the Texans, though, who have held opposing TEs to less than five points per week to open 2024. Nope. Don’t like it.
Honorable mention: Taysom Hill, Tucker Kraft, Greg Dulcich
