Week Five Start/Sit: WR/TE
Atta baby! In the financial world, we call this climbing into the black! My WR calls have generally been acceptable; six out of every 10 is profitable to an extent. This is the first time all season my TEs have crept up to the coin toss tier (50% chance), but I’ll take it with such a volatile position. I mean, it truly blows me away that guys like LaPorta, Kelce, Andrews, and Pitts have all been such a letdown. TE seems like a dart throw most weeks, even with the studs. At least we’re all suffering.
Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of the pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful. Last week was a fantastic week, bringing the season-long numbers into a very respectable spot. Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers in the lead-up to Week 5’s action – INCLUDING AN EARLY TILT IN LONDON – to make sure you have all the latest information from our crew on your crew.
But first…
Last Week: 14-6 (.700)
– WR: 8-2 (80%)
– TE: 6-4 (60%)
2024 NFL Season: 44-36 (.550)
– WR: 24-16 (60%)
– TE: 20-20 (50%)
Wide Receivers
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to-date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
Samuel has been the best 49ers wide receiver on the field this season, which actually doesn’t surprise me. After a chaotic holdout, Ayiuk seems slow to get going (natural), though he’s actually seeing a decent floor of targets also. And when he’s on, Aiyuk is a game-breaker, so stay tuned for that. This week, it’s the dual position standout Deebo I’m in on, as he matches up well with the Cardinals secondary. Samuel has operated out of the slot 40% of his routes this season, and the slot machines seem to pay out vs. Arizona, with McLaurin, St. Brown, and Shakir all putting up yards/touchdowns against them. Deebo lines up all over the place, even in the backfield, which entices me this week after watching the Commanders run roughshod through the Cardinals defense. Deebo is primed for a Deebo day, and has a super secure floor here with huge upside.
Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns
Speaking of sturdy floors, and despite inconsistent quarterback play, Jeudy has been decent this season – in the top 20, with good targets and receptions. His wideout partner, Amari Cooper, has underwhelmed but has also been decent. I’m not sure which is Batman and which is Robin (this will go back and forth each week for them), but the point is that there is a foundation of opportunity for both. The Browns get one of the softest matchups for WR this season – the Washington Commanders – who are dead last against the WR position. Oddly enough, the Washington Football Team (I prefer this name so much) has been damn decent, so this game total has potential (Vegas has it at O/U 45). While Amari seems to draw more targets, I actually prefer Jeudy (who PFF has graded higher all season) for this one. High-end route participation + targets + weak defense = Top 24 at the position this week.
Honorable mention: Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX), Diontae Johnson (CAR), Josh Downs (JAX)
My Fades This Week
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
It’s been a week (season) for Adams. Those of us who drafted him (raised hand emoji) expected volume, and volume does play in our thing. But it’s been brutal. Brutal. WR28 so far. 28. I promise you 28 WR weren’t drafted before Davante, so he’s absolutely not returning on our investment. Week 2 was fabulous. Weeks 1 and 3 were not. And now we have all this trade smoke, culminating in Adams request yesterday to be moved from the team – a request they seem inclined to grant (Pierce actually liked a post about Adams being traded). That’s good news, as there are several contenders with great QBs that could use his services. There are also terrible situations he could land in, so we hold our breath. In the meantime, Adams is “dealing” (sarcasm) with a hamstring that seems awful fishy, so he’s not guaranteed to suit up here. Even if he does, it’s Surtain II this week. Truth be told, he’s actually said he prefers to be traded “rather than continue playing,” so the writing is on the wall for us. Avoid at all costs this week.
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
This is just a hunch, but I don’t see Worthy stepping into a different role now that Rice is dealing with a significant knee injury. JuJu most likely assumes the WR1 route tree, with Worthy sticking to what he does best – speed. And it hasn’t been all that bad, right? Weeks 1 and 4 saw splash play touchdowns, which will be a thing for Worthy this season. But Weeks 2 and 4? Meh. Not impressive. The New Orleans defense, for their part, has been decent against the pass, yielding the 15th fewest points to the WR position on average (middle of the pack). Marshon Lattimore hasn’t been his usual lockdown self (41.9% lockdown rating, per PFF), but Taylor and Harris have stepped in nicely to assist – thus, the matchups aren’t great (but honestly, not bad either). Worthy has pretty decent route participation but without significant targets. Now… if he does slide into the Rice role, I’ll apologize to you all next week because there could be something there. And, as I mentioned, the splash touchdown possibility always exists. Going with my sizeable gut here and avoiding Worthy this week.
Honorable mention: Jaylen Waddle (MIA), Tee Higgins (CIN), DJ Moore (CHI)
Tight Ends
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to-date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Erick All, Jr., Cincinnati Bengals
Don’t look now, but the Bengals offense is back. The WR are healthy and in tune with Blondie (I hate his hair so much and refused to draft him anywhere because of it… petty, I know, but also satire), the RBs are both cooking, and there are a of couple pass-catching TEs in town. A look at the yearly totals suggests Mike Gesicki is TE1, but something happened last week, which is the continuation of a trend – Erick All, Jr. has taken over. In Week 4, All Jr. saw more targets (4 v. 1), catches (4 v. 1), and yards (28 v. -9), all with smaller route participation. Interestingly, All Jr. has passed Gesicki in season-long snap-share, but just barely (106 to 101, per FootballGuys). PFF also seems to agree with All Jr., as they’ve graded him 13th out of 76 qualifiers (v. 32nd for Gesicki). Translation – he’s the better tight end, seeing an increased workload with targets per routes run of just under 33% (elite). This offense is humming, and I’m taking a chance this week against a Baltimore defense currently surrendering the second most points on average per week to the position.
George Kittle. San Francisco 49ers
Simple formula this week – see Deebo above, insert Kittle, sit back and rake. E = mc squared. Kittle is a STUD and has me rethinking my pre-draft tight end rankings. I had Kittle right behind the big three darlings – LaPorta, Kelce, and McBride. Quoting myself – “George Kittle might have been my TE1, but he’s just too brittle (see what I did there). TE2 last season in both total points and average per game; Kittle gets it done when he’s on the field.” That’s ringing true already, as Kittle has produced when he’s in between the lines, but he’s already missed snaps due to injury. That he’s missed a game and is still TE2 should tell you all you need to know. Also, Arizona is a mess, and I don’t think they figure it out in Levi Stadium this week. I could give you all the great metrics, but we don’t need them here. You were probably already starting Kittle if he’s healthy – no need to rethink that (unless he’s out, which doesn’t seem to be the case at this point).
Honorable mention: Colby Parkinson (LAR), Dalton Schultz (HOU), Cole Kmet (CHI)
My Fades This Week
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
I’ll concede that Buddy has a decent floor each week, and I know from watching JF1 weekly that he uses his TE1 in a way that benefits our fantasy kingdom. This one is more matchup-based for me, as Dallas – despite being as soft as baby dookey – does a decent job against tight ends (albeit one of those games was against Baltimore who only threw the ball 15 times). Weeks 1-3 were a steady floor for us and a glimpse into what we can generally expect each week – 4/5 targets a week, 30-40 yards, and a TD sprinkled in. When those TDs are sprinkled in, Patty works. But Dallas hasn’t given up a TD to the position all year, and my magic eight ball says they won’t this week, either. I like him season-long for sure – 90.6% route participation (including 97.1% last week – WOWSERS), 45.3% slot usage (matchup nightmare), and only one drop on the season. All point to productivity, so I wouldn’t blame you if you went bizarro George here (thanks to my hetero-life mate @Nickroctweets for the correction). I’m simply playing a hunch here.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
In this week’s episode of TE Studs Gone Bad (late-night infomercial quality, heh?), I present Kyle Pitts – who is shaping up to be a huge bust all the way around. PFF currently ranks Charlie Woerner as the Falcons top TE, which isn’t surprising. Pitts has been uninspiring, to say the least – a touchdown here, a decent yardage total there, and then an absolute dumpster fire of a day in Week 4 (three targets, zero catches, zero yards, zero touchdowns, zero hugs in the locker room after). We just can’t trust him, friends, let alone against the Bucs who are almost top 10 against tight ends this season. Kirk isn’t right, and the entire offense is sorta off, so maybe this course corrects at some point as Cousins regains his footing. Until then, I don’t see any reason to start him unless he’s all you have. In that case, cross all your fingers and toes.
Honorable mention: Mark Andrews (BAL), David Njoku/Jordan Akins (CLE), Zach Ertz (WAS)
