Week Five Start/Sit: QB/RB
With a quarter of the season nearly in the books, we head into Week 5 with two running QBs sitting atop the leaderboard – one of which is a rookie – and a King (Henry) vying for a return to the throne at the RB position. We were duped by the 49ers, a few other first-rounders haven’t been the horses we expected, and we’ve had a few notable injuries, but otherwise, we’re just about where we thought we’d be, right?
Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of the pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful. Last week was a fantastic week, bringing the season-long numbers into a very respectable spot. Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers in the lead-up to Week 5’s action – INCLUDING AN EARLY TILT IN LONDON – to make sure you have all the latest information from our crew on your crew.
But first…
Last Week: 16-4 (.800)
– QB: 8-2 (80%)
– RB: 8-2 (80%)
2024 NFL Season: 55-25 (.688)
– QB: 28-12 (70%)
– RB: 27-13 (68%)
Quarterbacks
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to-date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy has been OK this season. He’s had some fantastic yardage totals, but his fantasy finishes have been just mehhhhhh – QB25, QB13, QB5, QB14. Other than Week 3, not impressed. But – and this is huge for Purdy – his weapons haven’t been healthy. Sure, Mason has been a godsend for them (and us), but Deebo has been banged up, Kittle was out W3 and hampered W4, etc. Other than McCaffery, all systems are now go, and when that’s the case, Brock has flourished. Check tape. Oh, and the Cardinals just got decimated by a rookie (and an OC with a grudge?). The 49ers are at home this week (where Brock had a 115.2 rating last season), and they’re going to whip wholesale behind this weekend.
Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers
I will always root for JF1. You know this. And I’m happy he’s been successful in Pittsburgh, I really am. I wish him all the continued success in the world. And while he didn’t consistently cook in Chicago, so far so good in the Steel City (QB6 on the season). Dallas’ defense has been kind of soft under Zimmer, specifically ranking 21st against the QB position in 2024. Fields will always have a sturdy floor due to his elite-elite rushing ability, and Dem Boys let Lamar Jackson run all over them. Dallas can also put up points (PFF projects CeeDee Lamb’s matchup advantage this week at a 91.8 BTW), meaning Fields and the Steelers will potentially have to keep up if this is a shootout, which I also love for this reco.
Honorable mention: Geno Smith (SEA), Deshaun Watson (CLE), Jordan Love (GB)
My Fades This Week
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Don’t let the NFL see this. Or the officials. My front yard will be littered with yellow laundry. How dare I recommend a sit for everyone’s Ma-homey, yet here we are. If you haven’t noticed (and judging by draft position, most of us haven’t), Mahomes hasn’t been a fantastic fantasy contributor since Tyreek left town. Sure, there are the eruption games here and there, and his durability and volume have him in the top 10 annually. But you’re not profiting from him week to week. You can’t be. There are currently 15 QBs ranked higher based on production, and there weren’t 15 QBs drafted in front of him. Even with Rashee Rice healthy, Mahomes wasn’t exactly relevant (QB14, QB14, QB15, QB17). Now that it looks like Rice may be done for the year, Mahomes lacks the weapons to sit atop the fantasy landscape anytime soon (with all due respect, Travis). And this week’s opponent – New Orleans – has been super stingy against the position (4th against opposing signal callers). Even with Kelce kinda back, I’m out on Mahomes until he shows me otherwise (trade for Davante, anyone?).
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
I recommended Darnold as a sit last week, and I’m sticking with it until it hits. Kidding. But seriously. I said last week that Darnold doesn’t have the bank with me to believe in him through tough matchups. And while his performance against the Packers last week (QB9) goes a long way to establishing his FICO with me, we ain’t there yet, friends. This week, he gets the Jets, which is the absolute toughest matchup for opposing quarterbacks. His main squeeze (Jefferson) gets to taste the Sauce (Gardner) this week. Remember Week 12 in 2022? Jefferson went 7/45/1 vs. Gardner, and I think that’s a fantastic comp for a ceiling this week. JJ may eke out a TD, but the yards will be minimal. Another interesting nugget – Jets CBs, specifically Gardner (55.1%) and D.J. Reed (67.7%) are among the league leaders in lockdown percentage (per PFF). Translation – receivers don’t often find space against them. Sammy and the Vikings have their hands full this week.
Honorable mention: Tyler Huntley (MIA), Kirk Cousins (ATL), Matthew Stafford (LAR)
Running Backs
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to-date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns
I am going back to the well again here because, well, it’s my column, and I can if I want to. Smiley face emoji. But seriously, thanks for reading. Sincerely. Anywhosers, Jerome. Last week wasn’t a nuke, but I like what we got despite such a negative game script (17 touches, 85 yards). Now, let’s adjust that for this week’s opponent – the Commanders – who are 21st against the position on the year. Eh? EHHHHHH? See what I’m getting at? Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, and James Connor all had very palatable weeks, and there’s no reason to think Ford isn’t at least capable of that. There is zero competition here for touches (better than 75% snap share on the season); I like the offensive line matchup, and the Cleveland offense will have to be dynamic this week to keep up with Washington. Wait… what was that last bit? I feel so dirty just typing that. Ford is also one of four backs with 20+ targets on the season, so he’s got volume/opportunity/target share on his side. High-end RB 2 numbers this week for Ford.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
I would love to put this into existence because I need it. The way a fantasy team needs a win to salvage a season in Week 5… you feel me? This is a dart throw at the matchup, folks, as Miami is brutal against the run now that their offense can’t stay on the field. Not that Rhamondre has been great himself, taking a nosedive after two solid performances to open the campaign. Stevenson has just about a 60% carry share, while Gibson comes in just under 30% – so there’s no real concern for touches. Stevenson just needs to be better with his, and I expect that this week in a get-right game for him. I don’t know if I expect RB1 numbers, but he’s definitely a safe play this week with a rock-solid floor.
Honorable mention: Jordan Mason (SF), Derrick Henry (BAL), Aaron Jones (MIN)
My Fades This Week
Breece Hall, New York Jets
What has happened to Breece Hall? And honestly, to Garrett Wilson also? These fellas were STUDS last year with sky-high expectations this season (most likely R1 picks, the both of them). Is it possible A-a-ron is dumbing down this offense? Are they all running around Rodgers’ dark room with tinfoil hats on, sniffing horse tranquilizers (too edgy?)? That’s me attempting humor because up until last week, Breece was kind of Breece’ing – RB13, RB4, RB12. Then, in Week 4, he lays a stinker (RB54). It could be a one-week aberration, but I’m concerned because Braelon Allen is dope (if only we knew), and we’re seeing him eat into Hall’s touches and potential production. All indications are this will continue, which could mean more of a timeshare than any of us are comfortable with. I’m on high alert ROS (same with McCaffery/Mason in SF), and there’s a potential that Hall doesn’t give us RB1 production as a result. Put that all in a pot, plus the Vikings matchup (4th against RBs), and I’m taking a break on Breece this week (alliteration aside – see what I did there)? I may lose this one, as it’s entirely possible that Breece cracks the top 24. But I wouldn’t put a fiver on it.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
This is another matchup nightmare and not really a reflection on the ability of Kamara, who has been an early-season MVP candidate for the Saints and for us (RB1 on the year). I waxed poetic about his volume and opportunity this season in a pre-draft teaser, and I’m glad he’s returning such wonderful profit. But… the Chiefs. They’ve put a brick wall (otherwise known as Chris Jones and Leo Chenal) in front of an A-list of backs so far – including Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson – and I expect them to do it again this week (despite a very favorable line advantage for New Orleans (28%, per PFF). Another possibility I eat my words, as Kamara ranks third in receptions by an RB (17), and he just has to be involved for the Saints to have a shot in this one. Plus, Kendre Miller may be back this week, and I expect him to start sharing the load, reducing volume for Kamara as the season rolls along (handcuff, friends, handcuff).
Honorable mention: Chase Brown (CIN), Rico Dowdle (DAL), Zamir White (LVR)
