Week 8 Start/Sit – WR and TE
Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful. Last week was a fantastic week, bringing the season-long numbers into a very respectable spot.
Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 8’s action.
But first…
Last Week: 17-3 (.850)
– WR: 9-1 (70%)
– TE: 8-2 (40%)
2024 NFL Season: 83-57 (.593)
– WR: 45-25 (64%)
– TE: 38-32 (54%)
Wide Receivers
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
DJ Moore, Chicago Bears
If you throw last week out (Panthers), the Washington defense has given 22 points or more to WRs in six of seven games this year. And with Caleb Williams hitting his stride, that sets up this WR room for a big day. CW18 has done a good job in spreading the ball – Moore, Odunze, and Allen have all had ball games. But it’s Moore who is generally regarded as WR1 in this room – he leads the team in targets and receptions and is tied for the team lead in TDs (3). His route participation dipped below 90% for the second time this season, which I’m going to chalk up to the game script in London. He is Moore (see what I did there) of a hunch for me this week as I think that DJ matches up well with the Commanders secondary, who have given up the seventh most points per game to the position (36.5) in the NFL. Feels like a big game is on tap for Moore.
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
Or Jaylen Waddle. Because this one is so easy, it feels lazy. This is your reminder that Tua will most likely be back this week. And I’m not gonna give you a bunch of metrics or snap counts to back this up – you know who this guy is. Tyreek is a game-changer with Tua at QB. Hell, it’s the reason he went in the top 3 of almost every draft. And he gets the Cardinals defense this week, which has been abundantly generous to WRs all season long, surrendering eight touchdowns through seven weeks. Targets, catches, and tuddys galore for Hill this week. And we will all rejoice and cross our fingers that Tua stays upright.
Honorable mention: Deebo Samuel (SF), Cooper Kupp (LAR), George Pickens (PIT)
My Fades This Week
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
McLaurin has been phenomenal since Week 3, and has climbed to WR 12 on the season. Snap share, target share, and route participation are all elite, and he’s developed quite a rapport with Jayden Daniels. Two problems for me this week – Daniels might not play, and the Commanders draw the Bears defense. Maybe Mariota feeds McLaurin as Daniels did. Maybe. But part of me says McLaurin has been so good because Daniels is fantastic at improvising, which means maybe Terry is devalued a bit with QB2 on the field. Also, as I’ve mentioned here before, the Bears are pretty good (6th) against WRs. No knock on Terry, but he’s going to have some issues this week.
Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers
Diontae has been resurgent with Andy Dalton under center, to say the least, and went from a weekly “sit” to a weekly “context-dependent.” He’s a bit of both this week. He has elite route participation and target share, plus he’s 15th in the league in air yards, which speaks to opportunity. I just don’t like the matchup. It may sound like a broken record at this point, but Denver’s defense is pretty good (see Chubba sit recommendation). Denver gives up the third-fewest points per game to the WR position and have actually held their own while Patrick Surtain II has been out with a concussion. Surtain II looks like a pretty good bet to return this week, making the matchup much less enticing. Keep Johnson on the bench for this one, and thank me later.
Honorable mention: Michael Pitman Jr. (IND), Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI), Ladd McConkey (LAC)
Tight Ends
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
Njoku has always been a gifted athlete, but none of the Browns QBs (save Joe Flacco) could figure that out. And he’s been hurt a bit this season, so I get it if he hasn’t been on your radar. Well, friends, he should be now. In the past two weeks, Njoku has come to life – 21 targets, 15 receptions, 107 yards, and one touchdown. With Amari Cooper shipped out, those targets are going somewhere, and based on Week 7 my bet is it’s Njoku who sees a substantial uptick – Tillman stepped up and had a nice game as well, while Jeudy disappeared after proclaiming he was ready for WR1 duty. Most of Njoku’s targets and production came before Watson went down with an injury, so we’ll have to see if he’s as productive with a different QB (most likely Jameis Winston this week) under center. Baltimore has given up the fifth most points to the TE position this year, so the matchup couldn’t be much better for Njoku.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
Speaking of resurgence, Hunter Henry has been pretty great since Drake Maye took over slinging the rock. In Maye’s two starts, Henry has averaged seven targets, five receptions, and nearly 70 yards a game – not to mention a touchdown – all good for 12.0 points per. Friends, we’ll take that from our tight ends all day, every day, especially on Sunday. And while the Jets have been pretty good against the position, the Bills and Steelers’ tight ends managed to put up decent totals in the last two weeks. The Patriots top two receivers are knicked up a bit – Douglas (illness) and Polk (concussion), so we’ll see what the week’s preparation brings. But if one or both were to miss, Henry will be the biggest beneficiary. Even if they do play, expect Maye to continue to feed Henry. Henry is top 10 in the league in red zone targets, and has a fantastic average depth of target on the season (9.7 yards). He’s got solid route participation and target share and runs more than half his routes from the slot. All of which speaks to elite opportunity at a bleak position. Top 12 this week.
Honorable mention: Travis Kelce (KC), Kyle Pitts (ATL), Cole Kmet (CHI)
My Fades This Week
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
I’ve discussed Kelce, Andrews, and Pitts already, as guys, we expected to get much more than we’re getting from them. It’s LaPorta’s turn in this spot, and to be truthful, I’ve kind of avoided it. I picked him as TE1 in my preseason TE rankings, and while he hasn’t been there, I expected he and the Lions would have figured it out by now. They haven’t. And don’t let Week 6’s point total fool you. He’s only been targeted 17 times this season (barely twice a game and only three times in the last two games), and he only has one touchdown to boot. And considering this offense has picked it up lately and that LaPorta has barely been involved, it concerns me for his rest-of-season outlook. Sure, there is time to course-correct. But we’re almost through half the season, and this appears to be more than just “trending down.” The Titans still haven’t given up a score to the TE position this season and rank second in points allowed at 6.0 points per. Fun fact – the other three I mentioned earlier all stepped up after I wrote unfavorably about them. Maybe Sammy will also.
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
24-25-38-20-25-22-32. No, that’s not my high school locker combination. It’s Dalton Schultz’s fantasy finishes this season. Not one above 20. Not one. And don’t expect that to change this week against the Colts, despite Indianapolis’ generosity to the position (30th). It might not be all Schultz’s fault. C.J. Stroud has been brutal this season, so maybe there’s that. The targets haven’t been lacking, so to speak, but the efficiency sure has. He’s dominating snap share and target share (for Houston’s TE), his route participation is okay, and I don’t hate his ADOT. He’s simply not doing much with his opportunities, even with Nico Collins out. If he’s going to get it going, this would have to be the matchup to exploit. But I’m not getting in the van unless I see the candy first.
Honorable mention: Mike Gesicki (CIN), Will DIssly (DEN), Zach Ertz (WAS)
