Week 8 Start/Sit – QB and RB
Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful. Last week was a fantastic week, bringing the season-long numbers into a very respectable spot.
Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 8’s action.
But first…
Last Week: 11-9 (.550)
– QB: 7-3 (70%)
– RB: 4-6 (40%)
2024 NFL Season: 88-52 (.629)
– QB: 45-25 (64%)
– RB: 43-27 (62%)
Quarterbacks
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Two weeks in a row, I KNOWWWWWW, but the matchup is too juicy to pass on. If it hadn’t been for the two picks, Love would have hit last week as well. Even with the Week 7 performance (19 points), Love is averaging nearly 27 points per game, which is good for fourth in the league at the position. Like my guy below, he has all his weapons healthy and ready to go this weekend when the Pack faces Jacksonville. And if you hadn’t noticed, Jacksonville is terrible against opposing QBs, ranking dead last. The only issue would be if the Packers jump out early and hit cruise control, but I’m not too concerned about that. The O/U for this one is currently sitting at 50.5, the highest of the week. This one is not rocket science – one of the best at the position, with the absolute best matchup for Week 8, in a game expected to be north of 50 combined points.
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
So if you throw out Weeks 1 and 2, Caleb Williams numbers a pretty damn good. With 25.0 points or more in three of his last four (including two 30.0+), he’s settling in nicely. He’s also one of the only QBs in the league to have his full complement of weapons healthy. And with the running game finally taking shape, this offense has opened up wide. It’s tough to call each week from a WR standpoint, as CW18 hasn’t quite settled on a top dawg, but with so many viable options, he’s set to cook. This week the Bears travel to Washington D.C. for their tilt with the Commanders, who have actually been much better lately against the position after a tough first few weeks of the season (less than 11.0 points allowed in three of the past four games). But, they also didn’t face elite talent in those games, other than Lamar Jackson – who put up a top 12 week. Let’s hope Jayden Daniels plays in this game so we can see these two go head-to-head. I’m giving the nod to Williams because – of the two – he’s got a much more favorable matchup.
Honorable mention: Bo Nix (DEN), Kirk Cousins (ATL), Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
My Fades This Week
Jayden Daniels/Marcus Mariota, Washington Commanders
Let me acknowledge first that there is a very good chance Jayden Daniels doesn’t play this week. This one isn’t about Daniels, who has been magnificent this season. But he’s hurt. And while there is a chance he’ll play, he wouldn’t be 100% in what will be a tough matchup. If he doesn’t play, the sit reco would transfer to Mariota. Marcus looked pretty DG in relief of Daniels last week, but that was the Panthers. The Chicago defense ranks second against the position on the year and has only allowed four passing touchdowns in six games. This will be a tough one for the pass catchers as well, as the Chicago secondary is elite against the pass. Tough spot if you have to start him, and I’ve got him outside the Top 12 on the Week.
Gardner Minshew II, Las Vegas Raiders
From the “maybe this is too obvious” department, I present to you Gardner Minshew II. I initially had Jared Goff pegged for this space, but a closer look at his seemingly tough matchup revealed that the Titans success against QBs has come at the hands of some terrible QB play (early Caleb Williams, Tyler Huntley, and Joe Flacco). So we move on down the line to Gardner Minshew II. Fresh off what may have been the worst QB performance of the season (-0.1 points), Minshew hasn’t topped 16 points all year. In fact, he’s only cracked the top 20 just once all year. He has just one real weapon in Brock Bowers (who’s gonna eat every week), but the rest of the offense is in shambles. Plus, it’s the Chiefs this week, who – aside from Lamar gouging them in Week 1 – have held their own against some decent signal callers. I would guess you already knew, but in case you didn’t – Gardner is a NO this week (and every week hereafter).
Honorable mention: Anthony Richardson (IND), Patrick Mahomes (KC), Drake Maye (NE)
Running Backs
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
My Guys This Week
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
I just hope KW-III has it in his heart to forgive me for last week. After an ill-fated sit recommendation from yours truly, Walker III went out and dropped an RB8 finish on the week. Lesson learned. Let me quote myself, though, before we go any further – “Kenneth Walker III is football’s equivalent to Royce Lewis. When he’s healthy and out there, HE MASHES,” and “Walker may just be matchup-proof.” Turns out he more than likely is. Who knew (shrug emoji)? On to this week, where Mr. Walker III (aka my new daddy) finds himself in a GLORIOUS matchup against the Bills, who boast the third-worst defense against running backs in 2024. Granted, Baltimore ran all over Buffalo in Week 4, but that’s what the Ravens do. If you take out that game, Buffalo is still pretty generous to RBs (at least 23 points in 4/6 matchups). Seattle seems intent on keeping Chabonnet involved (just about a 60/40 snap share split favoring Walker III), and he actually out-snapped KWIII against the Falcons. I ain’t scurred. Walker III has been super efficient with his touches, and I expect him to be this week as well.
Breece Hall, New York Jets
Breece Hall is soooooo back! And not a week too soon, after you spent R1 capital on him. His last two games have been phenomenal, and he has hopefully reassured us all that “In Breece We Trust.” In Weeks 2-5, backup Braelon Allen received approximately 30-35% of the snaps and was decent. It seemed the Jets were content turning this backfield into a timeshare. Then Rodgers had Saleh fired (allegedly), and it’s seemingly knocked some sense into the staff as Hall has dominated the snaps/touches in games not coached by Robert Saleh (87% AND 82% snap share, respectively). And Hall responded with his two best-scoring games of the season. Waiter: “Would you like some more Breece Hall?” Me: YES PLEASE.” The Patriots are up next, who rank 30th against RBs this season. Jerod Mayo blasted the Patriots players this week, and Bill Belichick swooped in to defend them. But Mayo may be on to something. Since Week 3, the Patriots have allowed no fewer than 25 points to running backs in any matchup, including tallies of 51 (HOU) and 37 (JAX) in the last two. You didn’t draft him to sit him, but if you had backed off, time to get back on.
Honorable mention: Javonte Williams (DEN), Josh Jacobs (GB), Kareem Hunt (KC)
My Fades This Week
Chubba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
Chubba was a start recommendation for me last week, and while the floor was decent, I certainly expected more efficiency with his touches. This week, it’s the Broncos for Hubbard, and I don’t like it for a few reasons. First, if you own Alvin Kamara, I really don’t need to articulate how Denver properly handled him last Thursday. And this is a big one because Hubbard was seeing carries and targets, much like Alvin. Second, Jonathon Brooks may be back this week. There’s also a chance he’s not, and as of this writing, I’m leaning toward him not playing in Week 8. But if he does, he’ll get worked in. They didn’t spend the draft capital on Brooks with the intent of him backing up Hubbard for too long. Third, Hub’s fantasy point production has dipped four games in a row heading into Week 8. Is he getting worn out? Possibly, maybe, probably. Chubba should still get the volume here, and that should present a decent floor. But I just don’t trust it. Y’all know I’m big on avoiding the Denver defense where we can. I see Hub on the outside looking in this week.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rachaad White had himself a ball game on Monday – 16 touches, 111 yards, 2 scores – and we’ve been waiting on it all year, huh? Against the Ravens, no less. That one game dropped the Ravens from 2nd against RBs to 12th. Insane. So, good for him. This is me giving him his flowers. Now, let’s get back to reality. This backfield is a mess. Yes, White is the RB1 in this room, technically (air quotes). But this backfield has turned into a really ugly situation for fantasy purposes between White, Bucky Irving, and Sean Tucker. With all three healthy, we caught a glimpse of what snap share most likely looks like on a weekly basis – White (48%), Irving (35%), and Tucker (20%). This means that White will have to be uber-efficient with his touches to be relevant. He was against the Ravens, where he saw significant work as a pass catcher. But what about games that aren’t shootouts? When the targets and receptions aren’t there? It’s far too volatile on a weekly basis for my liking. Plus, the Falcons are no slouch against the run, already holding these backs in check earlier this season (Week 5).
Honorable mention: Devin Singletary (NYG), Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG), Alexander Mattison (OAK)
