The Commanders selected Jayden Daniels with the #2 overall pick in the NFL Draft in April and he immediately became their present and future quarterback. Just over a decade ago, the Commanders selected Robert Griffin III second overall and he walked into a similar situation with a rebuilding team with a lot of holes on it. Daniels won the Heisman Trophy last season and is a polished and experienced player entering the league at 23 years old with five years of college experience under his belt. While his elevated age for a rookie can be used as a negative when evaluating him, he should also be much more ready to transition into the NFL than many other QBs who declare early. Daniels is a dynamic athlete who can throw the ball to all levels of the field and makes explosive plays with his legs, as he led the NCAA in yards per carry last year. The entire offense can and will be built around his strengths.
Third-year running back Brian Robinson appears to be hitting his stride as he enters his prime and he will be playing in the best offense with the widest running lanes of his career. He will be accompanied in the backfield by Austin Ekeler who reportedly has his “juice” back after an injury-riddled 2023 campaign. This duo should form one of the more formidable tandems in the league and both are capable in all facets of the game thanks to Robinson’s improved pass-catching chops. That being said, it will be interesting to see how the snap share breaks down as it truly wouldn’t be surprising to see either of these backs take the “lead” role. We could see a situation where the backs alternate series or one where they rotate throughout every series. However, the most likely outcome seems to be Robinson as the primary early-down running back with Ekeler playing more in hurry-up and passing down situations, while the two split work in the red zone.
The Commanders traded former first-round pick wide receiver Jahan Dotson this preseason and signed Noah Brown after he was cut from the Texans. Terry McLaurin is the clear “alpha” in this offense and some combination of Noah Brown, Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, Jamison Crowder, and Luke McCaffrey will comprise the rest of the receiving corps. McCaffrey is a rookie who failed to jump the vets during camp, a concerning sign for the long-term and making it hard to see him having a role early. The second and third receiver spots will be something to watch during Week 1 and may involve a rotation of several players and change as the season progresses. As for the tight ends, Zach Ertz is the starter and has been praised for his red zone presence in team practices during training camp. He could be a security blanket for Daniels given the receiver options on the roster. John Bates and rookie Ben Sinnott will mix in when the team is in “12” personnel (two tight end sets), which will be another data point to keep an eye on this week.
Kliff Kingsbury comes into this situation in Washington with a bit of a rough reputation from the general public and avid fantasy football players, but he may be a far better fit than people realize. Kingsbury wasn’t a great head coach, but he has been very good offensive coordinator throughout his career. Even in Arizona where he took a lot of heat (no pun intended), Kingsbury had some very good offenses when he had the personnel to make it work. Washington is still probably a year away from having the weaponry they would like to complement Daniels, but this should be a serviceable and somewhat fun unit in 2023. Kingsbury’s offenses play with good pace/tempo and run the ball at an above-average rate. Notably, the Cardinals had a successful rushing attack early in Kingsbury’s time there despite a poor offensive line, a weakness that the Commanders also have. As for play calling, the biggest complaint to Kingsbury’s scheme was the “horizontal raid” nature of it with most of the passing game being within a few yards of the line of scrimmage, along with a lack of creativity in motion and varying route concepts.
For Week 1, there is nothing exceptional either way for the Bucs defense that should influence Washington’s play calling. They are neither elite nor poor against the run or the pass, while Kingsbury’s offenses have traditionally been the “this is who we are and how we play” type who makes defenses adjust to them rather than severely changing weekly game plans. This means that we should get a very accurate portrayal of where this offense is at this week. Something similar to the big picture concepts we saw in Arizona are likely, with a slightly elevated rate of running plays and short and intermediate focus in the passing game. Terry McLaurin will be peppered with targets, while Ertz and the running backs will likely be the other primary targets.
