I was talking Sunday with the great Lou Landers (@LandersTalks) last week about Tyler Conklin and that I had him as a sit recommendation for last week. Specifically, I said… “Four targets. Two catches. Sixteen yards. TE1 for the New York Jets isn’t TE1’ing.” And then, on Thursday, he lit up the stat sheet (for a TE). Ahhhhhhhh, the tight end position is so frustrating. Your TE top five so far are Goedert, Likely, Bowers, Kmet, and McBride. Just how we drafted them, right? The big names are either struggling or injured, and there is literally no consistency at the position through three weeks. So we look at trends, matchups, and other opportunities stats like route participation and targets to forecast. Yes, this is my apology letter to you all about my TE record this year.
My start/sits are generally about value, not necessarily boom production. I could tell you to start Justin Jefferson every week, but you’re already doing that. You are starting your studs unless you have certain justification otherwise. Case in point – Tyreek Hill. Consensus top three, top five, etc., based on format. An absolute beast at wide receiver – with the right QB (Mahomes, Tua). With Skylar Thompson? With Tyler Huntley? He’s very pedestrian. And we’ve seen this before, right? Think Antonio Brown every time Ben Roethlisberger was out. You have to start them; you just have to. Tyreek can still take every touch to the house, and he’s the best receiver in the league at beating man coverage. But when you’re not on the same page as your gunslinger, bad times lie ahead. Translation – I’m worried about Tyreek, but I’m generally still starting him every week. Back to my point – I’m not trying to spoon-feed the obvious names to the masses. I try to dig a little to give you value plays (top 24, WR2 and above, for example) vs. guys you’re playing anyway. Unless you get cute, then claim to have been “in the know.” Right. I digress.
So, back to my convo with Lou – maybe this should be the bizarro section of my picks. Think Bizarro Jerry (Seinfeld). The episode where Bizarro Jerry does everything in an opposite manner to regular Jerry. Or the true origin of the phrase, Bizarro Superman (same premise). Either way you slice it, maybe go against my grain this week and see how that works out! I did improve to .500 on the season, so like John Anthony, let’s flip a coin and get to it.
But first…
Last Week: 11-9 (.500))
– WR: 5-5 (50%)
– TE: 6-4 (60%)
2024 NFL Season: 30-30 (.500)
– WR: 16-14 (53%)
– TE: 14-16 (47%)
Dr. Roto called it way back when. Doc has been all about Nabers since Big Blue called his number, and man, was he right. That’s why Doc signs the checks. Naber is a legit stud and looks like he belongs. He’s going to be a fixture for years and is stampeding into must-start status. Barring catastrophe, you won’t need me to recommend him again this season. Nike (just do it). Depending on the format, he’s as high as WR1 and no lower than WR4 this season. He does it all – receptions, yards, touchdowns. It’s a tough matchup this week, but so what? Volume feeds the player, and he has it. 93% route participation (elite), 36 targets through three games (elite), 23 receptions (elite), 37.8% team target share (elite), and three touchdowns (elite). They’re going to have to throw in this one to stay competitive, and I expect the same opportunity for Nabers and our fantasy boxes.
A huge Week 2 fuels the overall results, but that’s not the whole story with Metcalf. The targets are plenty, the yards are there, and touchdowns in consecutive weeks. This man possesses the speed and strength to be a YAC beast week-in/week-out (9th in the NFL in YAC yards), and he’s among the top 25 in team target share. His route participation leaves a little to be desired, but who can argue with the results – WR2 in Week 2, WR12 last week. I expect the good times to keep rolling this week against the Lions, who are second to last in the league at allowing points to the position. Monday Night Football is going to be popping this week with an O/U just south of 50, and I want every piece of that I can get.
Honorable mention: Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, Marvin Harrison Jr.
Just read the intro, and you have all you need. LBVS. This is all about whichever QB not named Tua is slinging the ball in Miami this week. That was a bold move, I know, considering I said you start him regardless of the situation in the article lead-in (Bizarro Derek). He’s got the route participation (duh) and targets to factor for sure, but his QBs are trash, and they’re clearly not vibing yet (zero targets in Q1 Sunday – ZERO), and the Titans have been pretty damn good against the position this season (3rd). Plus, this traffic stop business has him a little distracted (rightfully so), which makes him even harder to trust for our purposes. And it’s not just me – he’s been devalued across all platforms, which we expected. The Dolphins have to do something fast, or their season may be lost, along with Tyreek’s weekly fantasy relevance. One catch and run is all it takes for me to eat my words here – do you trust you’ll get it?
The targets are there, but the production isn’t (save the PPR value he returned on Sunday). The route participation/target combo is just fine, and the air yards are kind of elite also (4th in the NFL), so maybe the production is coming. The problem isn’t Courtland. It’s the rookie. And until Nix figures it out, Sutton – along with the rest of the pass catchers – are going to suffer. Oh, and did you see the Jets listed above as an AVOID matchup? Sauce is good, y’all. And so is the rest of the secondary (11th against WR points allowed). Touchdowns have been Sutton’s bread and butter, and those of us who drafted him had the reasonable expectation of 10 touchdowns (an exceptional value and profit for the pick). But he has zero so far, and while that is certain to change at some point, I’m not sure it does this week. He has a shot at low-end WR2 numbers, but I most realistically see him on the outside looking in.
Honorable mention: Michael Pittman Jr., Tank Dell, Demarcus Robinson
After a quiet (and concerning) Week 1, Kincaid has stepped it up. And while 11 targets, nine receptions, 74 yards, and one touchdown isn’t super inspiring, it’s enough to finish top 12 moving forward. The matchup is quite juicy, actually, with Baltimore yielding 17.0 points to the position on average. PFF loves him (2nd out of 70), and the numbers actually suggest the Bills game plan does, too. 91.8% route participation is elite for a tight end, and he’s actually seeing quite a bit of slot action (60.7% of routes). The tuddy last week was nice, as was the average depth of target (12.2 yards), so keep that stuff coming, buddy. Bonus: he catches every catchable pass (zero drops on the season). There’s a reason we were all so high on him coming into the year, and this sort of feels like the start of a nice run.
There he is! Your TE4 on the season, just as we predicted it! *me taking a bow* Sarcasm. Sigh. At this point in the season, one week can vault you straight to the top of the rankings. Such is the case with Cole, who is my favorite Chicago TE since Robocop. We just need to see this more consistently, and I actually think we will. Folks, it worked last week. And while we can’t expect CW18 to sling it 50 times a game (how expletive crazy is that, BTW), Cole was open alllll dayyyyy. And there is opportunity there for a struggling offense. PFF thinks he’s swell also (5th out of 70). I don’t love the route participation, but the Bears offensive line is a mess, and he’s actually had to stay in to block 10.9% of the time (that’s high for a pass-catching TE in case you’re wondering). Dalton Kincaid, by comparison, pass blocks on 4.9% of his snaps (per PFF). Another fun stat – 3 for 3 on contested catches. I’m rambling at this point. But two things about the Chicago Bears excite me this week – Cole Kmet and my freshly ordered Salute to Service hoodie (they’re dope, check ‘em out). So anyway, start Cole this week.
Honorable mention: Zach Ertz, Jake Ferguson, Kyle Pitts
I wrote an article earlier in the offseason, ranking the top TE for redraft leagues. I (reasonably) ranked Kelce second for the season. And while there is plenty of time to get there, something is off. In my defense, I did say to expect a drop-off, but man. No one expected this. Our friends at Pro Football Focus wrote a fantastic article about this, and the article doesn’t necessarily have a happy ending for Kelce owners. It spotlights just how “off’ Kelce is through the first three weeks of 2024 compared to every other year in the Mahomey era (see what I did there, Swifties?). Noah Gray has actually earned higher receiving grades than Taylor’s future fiancé. Route participation is down, targets and receptions are down, the KC offense is pedestrian (except for Rashee), and there have been no Kelce touchdowns or Taylor touchdown celebration cut-scenes yet this season. Is there hope for us Kelce romantics? Maybe. Per PFF, Kelce’s -9.8 expected points suggest some opportunity. And it is Travis, so he’s earned a little leeway. Your TE24 draws the Chargers this week, who have given up just over 10 points a week to the position, so my guess is we’ll have to wait another week for Travis to take off.
Three games. Eight targets. Sixty-five yards. Numbers are spelled out for dramatic effect. Folks, Andrews isn’t right. Granted, Baltimore stopped passing the ball so Derrick Henry could trample all over my sit reco last week, but still. And a further dig into the numbers isn’t very promising. His route participation is at the lowest of his career (84.5%), and he’s on pace for his fewest targets since 2018; Isiah Likely has emerged to steal targets and remember, this is a run-run-heavy offense. Buffalo isn’t terrible against tight ends, but they’re in the bottom 10 in the league for TE points against. It isn’t the matchup that scares me. It’s the declining usage (and possible skillset – PFF ranks him at 22 out of 70). Unfortunately, anyone who drafted him spent some capital on him, which kind of forces your hand. I get it. I avoided him for several reasons, but Lamar not throwing to him wasn’t one of them. He’s a sit for me this week, dawg.
Honorable mention: Hunter Henry, Pat Freiermuth, Chigoziem Okonkwo
