Week 11 Start/Sit: QB/RB

Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful. Last week was a fantastic week, bringing the season-long numbers into a very respectable spot.

Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 11’s action.

But first…

Last Week: 13-7 (.650)

– QB: 7-3 (70%)

– RB: 6-4 (60%)

2024 NFL Season: 128-72 (.640)

– QB: 66-34 (66%)

– RB: 62-38 (62%)

Quarterbacks

My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to-date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.

Notable QBs on BYE this Week

Daniel Jones, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young

My Guys This Week

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Opponent: v. Seattle Seahawks

Over/Under – 49.5

Opponent Rank v. QB: 21 (17.1)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 15 (15.06)

I’m going back to the well here for the second week in a row, but what can I say – Brock has (most of) his weapons back, and when he does, the 9ers COOK. Four straight top-10 finishes, and he’s going to make it five this week. Jauan Jennings has stepped into the Aiyuk role nicely, and Ricky Pearsall is coming on at the right time. The Seahawks aren’t terrible against the position, but it won’t matter – the 49ers are rolling, and Brock is in the driver’s seat.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Opponent: v. Washington Commanders

Over/Under – 48.5

Opponent Rank v. QB: 19 (16.7)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 10 (13.07)

Speaking of rolling right along, hello, Mr. Hurts. Five straight top 10 finishes and three straight in the top three (four straight in the top four). It’s not coincidental that the rushing touchdowns returned consistently (eight in the last four games). The Commanders have turned into a Top 10 defense against QBs, and reinforcements are on the way as Marshon Lattimore looks to suit up this week. So what, with a capital WHAT. Hurts can beat you seven different ways from Sunday, and this team is LOADED. Washington will have their hands full in this one.

Honorable mention: Jordan Love (GB), Russell Wilson (PIT), Justin Herbert (LAC)

My Fades This Week

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Opponent: @ Buffalo Bills

Over/Under – 46.5

Opponent Rank v. QB: 6 (14.6)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 5 (11.60)

Interesting nugget – Patrick Mahomes has averaged 41.3 attempts per game over the last three games, and if you expand that to the last seven, it’s 36.8. Know how many top 10 finishes he has during that time? One. I found that both odd and telling. This team lacks explosive play ability at all offensive levels, and while it’s effective in real-life NFL (undefeated), it’s not helping anyone in fantasy (especially considering where he was drafted). Hopkins has been a nice add, and Kelce has started Kelce’ing again, but it’s so mehhhhh to watch, and we’re not even excited to check the box. Oh, and the Bills are pretty good against opposing QBs, ranking at or near 5th all season long.

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Opponent: @ Philadelphia Eagles

Over/Under – 48.5

Opponent Rank v. QB: 4 (13.7)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 2 (9.62)

Jayden has been phenomenal this year, no doubt. And this O/U is the second highest of the week, but I don’t like it. The Eagles have been stupid good against QBs over the last four weeks, and it wasn’t just against schlubs. Yes, one was Cooper Rush, and his negative total definitely weighs the average, but still. Huge O/U, so do what you like here. But there’s cause for concern in my eyes. Philly is on a tear, is at home, and this one is a divisional must.

Honorable mention: Josh Allen (BUF), Joe Flacco (IND), Gardner Minshew II (LVR)

Running Backs

My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.

Notable RBs on BYE this Week

Tyrone Tracy Jr., James Conner, Bucky White, Rachaad White, Chubba Hubbard

My Guys This Week

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

Opponent: v. Seattle Seahawks

Over/Under – 49.5

Opponent Rank v. RB: 23 (22.3)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 17 (24.03)

I mean, yes, I recommended him as a sit last week, but none of you listened (and yes, I also started him). I loved what I saw, however – 19 touches, 100+ total yards, and an RB11 finish. And in his first week back from an extended IR stay, no less. This week, it’s the Seahawks, and my guess is there are no restrictions on his workload, which – as you all know – has faired well for him and us. While the Hawks looked good against the Rams backfield before the bye, check the tape on the previous weeks – 31.0+ in four of the five previous games. And, BTW, those were all backfields with RBs that catch passes. 

Joe Mixon, Houston Texans

Opponent: @ Dallas Cowboys

Over/Under – 42

Opponent Rank v. RB: 29 (24.3)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 16 (23.33)

Joe Mixon has been really good this season, and I didn’t see it coming. I thought he was cooked. Done. Finished. But guess what? He’s absolutely not. In fact, if he hadn’t missed three weeks, he might even be RB1 on the season. That was a huge miss on my part. Thankfully, I wasn’t alone in my lack of prognostication here. Top 10 finishes in all but two games and five games over 21 (including three over 30). He’s basically averaging 25 carries a game over his last four, including a crazy inefficient game against the Lions (27 total touches). Nico Collins should be back this week, which should create space for Mixon. All in on what could be a huge week.

Honorable mention: Kareem Hunt (KC), David Montgomery (DET), Nick Chubb (CLE)

My Fades This Week

James Cook, Buffalo Bills

Opponent: v. Kansas City Chiefs

Over/Under – 46.5

Opponent Rank v. RB: 1 (12.0)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 2 (13.55)

James Cook has been a solid option for most of the season. Take a couple of 30-burgers, sprinkle in eight touchdowns, add a fair amount of receiving work, and you’ve got RB10 on the season. But this is just a terrible matchup. The Chiefs are basically a brick wall when it comes to opposing running backs – one touchdown in the last seven weeks (three all season), never more than 75 rushing yards in any game this season, and less than 10 fantasy points in six of nine games. This should be a really fun game to watch, but for the first time in the franchise, this tilt may be more about the defenses and which quarterback can come out of Orchard Park with a win this week.

Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals

Opponent: @ Los Angeles Chargers

Over/Under – 46.5

Opponent Rank v. RB: 2 (14.3)

Opponent Rank Last Four Weeks: 4 (16.05)

On one hand, Zack Moss is lost for the season, creating a massive opportunity. On the other hand, it’s the Chargers this week who have been nearly as good as the aforementioned Chiefs against opposing RBs. While more generous in terms of yardage, they’ve only given up one rushing touchdown, which is absurd considering we’re entering Week 11. This Bengals team loves to throw the football, and when they have a guy like Ja’Marr Chase, why wouldn’t they? Plus, I’m going to take a shot here and say that Khalil Herbert – a historically efficient back – is going to start working himself into the fold. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Herbert is going to matter significantly this week, but I bet they still get a look at him. I love the ROS outlook for Brown, but he’s in for a long afternoon out there in the City of Angels.

Honorable mention: Najee Harris (PIT), Alexander Mattison (MIN), Audric Estime (DEN)