Week 10 Start/Sit: WR/TE
Each week, I crunch the numbers and metrics, looking for those slices of pie that should put our fantasy teams in a position to be successful. Last week was a fantastic week, bringing the season-long numbers into a very respectable spot.
Make sure you check the Dr. Roto Discord servers to get all the latest information from our crew in the lead-up to Week 10’s action.
But first…
Last Week: 12-8 (.600)
– WR: 6-4 (60%)
– TE: 6-4 (60%)
2024 NFL Season: 104-76 (.578)
– WR: 54-36 (60%)
– TE: 50-40 (56%)
Wide Receivers
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
Notable WRs on BYE this Week
Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Jakobi Meyers, DK Metcalf, Jaxson Smith-Njigba
My Guys This Week
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Opponent: @ Baltimore Ravens
Over/Under – 53.0
Opponent Rank v. WR: 32 (36.2)
Last Four Weeks: 32 (42.80)
This one should feel super easy. One of the best at the position against the worst team at defending the position – 13 touchdowns allowed in nine games, and fewer than 30 points only once in that span (including 77 to these very Bengals back in Week 5). Speaking of the Week 5 matchup, Mr. Chase’s line from that game is STUPID – 10-193-2 on 12 targets. Ja’Marr has received 11 targets in each of the past two games with Tee Higgins out, so expect more of the same. Huge game on tap for Ja’Marr this week in what is certain to be a shootout. You’ll want every piece of this one you can get.
Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts
Opponent: v. Buffalo Bills
Over/Under – 46.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 6 (21.4)
Last Four Weeks: 11 (29.18)
Joe Flacco is the best thing to happen to Indy all season. Anthony Richardson may be a swell guy and all, but he’s a terrible quarterback. And quite frankly, he may have played his last intentional down of football for the Colts. But I digress. What’s great about Joe is the ripple effect it causes to the other positions – all of which get a spike in value. Josh Downs is a phenomenal talent, and it’s backed up by the metrics. And simply stated – Downs is a much better real-life and fantasy play with Flacco at the helm. Matchup-wise, I’m not in love with it this week for the Colts. The Bills secondary is much improved over last year, and they’ve done well limiting the position. But the volume for Downs – who hasn’t had less than nine targets in a Joe Flacco game – will be there. And that’s what I’m buying this week. PFF loves the matchup this week also, scoring Downs at a 90.4 vs. the Bills secondary. $$ Ka-Ching $$.
Honorable mention: Zay Flowers (BAL), Darnell Mooney (ATL), DeAndre Hopkins (KC)
My Fades This Week
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Opponent: @ Kansas City Chiefs
Over/Under – 41.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 1 (19.7)
Last Four Weeks: 8 (26.43)
Holy moly, has Sutton been on a tear? Over his past two games – 21 targets, 15 receptions, 222 yards, and 43.2 fantasy points. Hot damn. That’s the good news. The bring-it-back-to-Earth news: it was against arguably the two worst pass defenses in the league. Prior to those games, Sutton had been so inconsistent you may have already dropped him. If you didn’t, make sure he’s on your bench this week. The Chiefs handle business against the pass y’all and have done a great job at limiting WR output. Sutton is going to be a matchup play each week, and this week is a no.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: v. New York Jets
Over/Under – 46.5
Opponent Rank v. WR: 2 (20.8)
Last Four Weeks: 7 (25.18)
Super tough draw this week for MHJ, as the Jets come to town ranking 2nd on the season against the position. So that’s already working against him. Another thing working against him is that he and Kyler don’t seem to be vibing, and I can’t – for the life of me – figure out why. It’s got to be Kyler, right? MHJ is skilled has the size/speed/body control to dominate at the point of catch and after, and you have to think the game plan is there for him. So then, why is his consistency and usage all over the place? Seriously… here are his finishes this season: 105, 1, 20, 23, 58, 125, 61, 5, 79. Four times this season, he’s finished below 60. Ouch. I’m not sure I’ll trust it at any point this season, even in games that are great matchups (and this one isn’t).
Honorable mention: Demario Douglas (NE), Amari Cooper (BUF), Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX)
Tight Ends
My weekly matchup chart highlights the best positional matchups vs. the toughest. Translation: green is a good matchup for the position, red is bad, and yellow is neutral. This information is updated weekly based on fantasy points against (to date) and a few other factors and presented in no particular order per tier.
Notable TEs on BYE this Week
David Njoku, Tucker Kraft, Brock Bowers, Noah Fant
My Guys This Week
Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals
Opponent: @ Baltimore Ravens
Over/Under – 53.0
Opponent Rank v. TE: 22 (10.3)
Last Four Weeks: 22 (13.20)
See Ja’Marr Chase above. Same rationale. Terrible defense against the position, and Tee Higgins is most likely out. Gesicki’s line the past two weeks with Higgins out – 14 targets. 12 receptions, 173 yards, two touchdowns, and nearly 40 fantasy points. Super easy decision this week. Get Mike in your lineups.
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: v. San Francisco 49ers
Over/Under – 51.5
Opponent Rank v. TE: 10 (7.8)
Last Four Weeks: 15 (13.07)
See Mike Gesicki via Ja’Marr Chase and apply the same philosophy to Cade Otton, who’s QB is also missing his primary weapons (Evans and Godwin). The proof is in the pudding here, friends. In the three games Baker hasn’t had his full compliment of WR, Otton has FEASTED: 31 targets, 25 receptions, 258 yards, and three touchdowns. Oh, and BTW, he’s TE1 during that span. Oh. And also, BTW… the 49ers are susceptible to good tight ends. So, the matchup isn’t as scary as it would seem initially. Pat yourself on the back if you scooped before Week 7, and let’s keep riding this puppy until the wheels fall off.
Honorable mention: Evan Engram (JAX), Jake Ferguson (DAL), Trey McBride (ARI)
My Fades This Week
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
Opponent: v. Detroit Lions
Over/Under – 49.5
Opponent Rank v. TE: 2 (5.3)
Last Four Weeks: 3 (6.18)
Schultz continues to underwhelm, despite factors that should favor his production – decent QB, target share over the past five games is palatable, etc. It’s just not translating. And you’d have thought it would, considering – like my two starts this week – his team is missing WR components. This man hasn’t finished higher than TE21 at any point this season, and he now gets the Detroit Lions defense who have been stalwarts against the position. No lengthy dissection needed here – just don’t start him.
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Opponent: v. New England Patriots
Over/Under – 39.5
Opponent Rank v. TE: 20 (9.3)
Last Four Weeks: 16 (13.28)
So it’s not lack of efficiency with his touches that dooms Kmet each week, it’s whether or not he’ll – and I’m quoting Keyshawn Johnson here – get the damn ball. In weeks where Kmet is targeted at least three times, he’s presented no worse than a decent floor (with the exception of the Rams game) to go along with some standout performances. 4.7, 20.7, 7.2, and 21.5 are all very respectable numbers from such a volatile position. But his volume has fallen off the table since the bye week – in those two games, he has one target, one reception, for 14 yards. Granted, Caleb Williams has looked like doggy-doo the last two weeks. And it’s clear that Cole goes as his QB does. So until CW18, Shane, and Matt get this figured out, don’t expect too much from Kmet.
Honorable mention: Sam LaPorta (DET), Theo Johnson (NYG), Ja’Tavion Sanders (CAR)
