Thursday, Sep 5th
Monday, Sep 9th

Week 1 Line Movement :: Part II


In future weeks, this Line Movement Look will be available exclusively in the email update I send out to subscribers on Sunday morning after Inactives are announced (the email hits inboxes about an hour before kickoff), but with so much of the site free this week, I’m posting this as well.

If you are not yet a subscriber: just a quick reminder that the Mistake Price of $39 for 12 months of access will disappear after Week 2 kicks off. At that point, the price will rise to $59 per year.

If you sign up under the $39 tag, you get to renew at that price for life.

We also have a 30 day money-back guarantee. It’s a stupid value.


The Bills’ Vegas-implied team total started the week at 17.0 points, and it has plunged down to 15.75. This is not moderate movement; this is a huge swing. Lots of money is coming in on the Under, driving down the totals for both teams — but the Bills, in particular, are taking a beating in Vegas, indicating very little faith in their offense. This further affirms everything we know about this matchup, and should further entrench our Alex Collins // Ravens DST interest in this game.

The Bucs have seen moderate movement downward, while the Saints have seen a small bump in expectations throughout the week. It hurts that the Saints have so many weapons who can score in so many different ways, but the core of Brees // Thomas // Kamara is as safe as they come, and tourney shots can be taken on guys like Ted Ginn, Ben Watson, and Tre’Quan Smith. Austin Carr is also starting in the slot, if you want to go full YOLO on a theoretically low-upside guy who gets a small injection of juice by being connected to this offense.

The Titans and Dolphins have both seen their totals trickle down by a half-point over the last couple days. With the sluggish heat in Miami and some question marks on both offenses, this isn’t a surprise, though there are still some cheap pieces in play on these teams in cash games and tourneys.

Perhaps the least surprising line movement of the week has been the Bengals and Colts. This game was highlighted in the NFL Edge as one that seemed ripe to go over its total, with the Bengals in particular looking like a strong offensive bet (and with the Bengals’ defense highlighted as a strong DST pivot off the Ravens). The other day, we highlighted the upward movement for the Bengals, but I was surprised at that point to see the Colts trickling up as well. That has since changed. In all, the Bengals have gained 1.25 points on their Vegas-implied total since the NFL Edge went up. The Colts have dropped a full point in the last couple days. This is a strong spot for the Bengals’ offense and defense. Tight end remains the easiest way for the Colts to move the ball.

The Steelers/Browns total has dropped like a rock, with a full seven points shaved off the Over/Under. This is mostly due to weather, which doesn’t look as bad as it was originally projected to be. At this point, I’m expecting this game to hit the Over — though with strong winds and light rain, it will still be difficult for these teams to attack deep, which limits some of the upside on each side of the ball.

No major movement to report on the late games since the original line movement update the other day.

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards!