Underdog Under Owned 10.22
Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest.
The goal of this article is to present you with information and strategy about a different-style DFS tournament that is not currently as strategically optimized as traditional DFS due to its infancy as a contest style. Due to Underdog’s main customer base of Best Ball players, there are many people approaching this tournament in a suboptimal way. So let’s take advantage!
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Brief Review of Previous Data
This section will just be to track some top-five lineup trends that may help you in constructing your roster.
- In 18-of-27 weeks, there have been at least four QB-teammate stacks in the top-five rosters (13-of-18 were QB-WR)
- 2022 QBs + teammate in top-five: Joe Burrow (10/10) // Lamar Jackson (9/10) // Josh Allen (5/9) // Patrick Mahomes (5/5) // Justin Fields (0/5) // Jalen Hurts (4/4) // Tua Tagovailoa (2/2) // Jared Goff (1/1)
- Of the 45 QBs on a top-five roster in 2022, 40 have scored four or more touchdowns
- Exceptions: Allen in Week 4 (four teams, two touchdowns) and Tagovailoa in Week 8 (one team, three touchdowns)
- Of the 135 top-5 rosters, 98 have had two RBs (72.6%)
- This means a 1-2-2-1 roster construction
- Mark Andrews has made a top-five roster in 11-of-20 weeks he has been on the slate, and Travis Kelce has made a top-five roster in 10-of-18 weeks he has been on the slate
Looking at Week 10
Even with ADP shifting over the course of the week, we can get a pretty solid idea of who is going where early in the week, and what players are being left off the board that might provide overlooked winning upside.
This week specifically is missing a lot of usual depth due to the teams on Bye or on island games, and Josh Allen’s status has also thrown the drafting rooms into a frenzy.
Notable QBs missing from this slate: Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Geno Smith, Marcus Mariota
- Top-six QBs by ADP: Patrick Mahomes (JAC), Josh Allen (MIN), Justin Fields (DET), Tua Tagovailoa (CLE), Kyler Murray (@LAR), Dak Prescott (@GB)
- If Allen misses, Mahomes is one of the most valuable players on the slate. Fields with Detroit on deck will get him steamed up the draft board throughout the week.
QBs with upside outside the top-six drafted:
DISCLAIMER: Based on who is going undrafted and what the matchups are for the big dogs at the top, the top three-to-four guys specifically should probably be prioritized. The following guys are probably more useful to consider for the 12-man draft contests.
- Jared Goff: Chicago shipped off multiple elite defenders and has allowed 84 total points the last two weeks. Chicago is also scoring 31.3 points per game over the last three weeks, leading to a lot of fantasy production for both teams in their games. While infrequent, Goff’s best scores as a Lion are 29.9 (33-41), 26 (36-27), and 34.2 (45-48). He has a clear stacking partner in Amon-Ra St. Brown, who will also potentially be going later in drafts after some down weeks. Still, in the case that this game goes off, Fields is certainly a massive favorite to outscore Goff. Due to the ADP difference, he doesn’t necessarily need to outscore Fields if you can build a better overall roster with sixth round Goff, but it would still almost certainly mean Fields is not having a game like last week (keep this in mind when drafting).
- Russell Wilson: While certainly having a down year, his arm looked better in Week 8 and he has since had a bye to get healthier. Tennessee has allowed the fifth most QB fantasy points per game, with five-of-eight QBs topping 300 yards passing. Tennessee has been at the bottom of the league in WR fantasy points allowed in each of the last three seasons, making a pairing with either Jeudy or Sutton (or Dulcich) make sense if venturing to the Wilson play. When at his best, Wilson is one of the few capable QBs here with a reasonable chance at being the top QB scorer of the week.
- Matthew Stafford: Arizona has been a below average pressure-generating defense despite leading the league in blitzes. Los Angeles’ biggest problem this year has been offensive line play, and Stafford (like most veteran QBs) has historically torched heavy-blitzing defenses. In 2021, Stafford made a top-five roster more than any QB except for Josh Allen. In three 2021 games vs Vance Joseph’s Cardinals’ defense, he averaged 256 yards & 2.7 touchdowns. Kupp is slipping a bit in drafts due to his recent performances against Arizona and Byron Murphy, but he’s always a threat for a huge game (including a 13/123/1 game vs Arizona in 2021). Stafford & Kupp together will be virtually unowned in this contest (seven of Stafford’s 11 appearances on top-five rosters last year came with Kupp too).
Notable RBs missing from this slate: Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, Kenneth Walker, Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Leonard Fournette, Miles Sanders, Cordarelle Patterson
- Top 10 RBs by ADP: Saquon Barkley (HOU) // Derrick Henry (DEN) // Nick Chubb (@MIA) // Travis Etienne (@KC) // Alvin Kamara (@PIT) // Josh Jacobs (IND) // Tony Pollard (@GB) // Dalvin Cook (@BUF) // Dameon Pierce (@NYG) // Jonathan Taylor (@LV)
RBs with upside outside the top-10 drafted:
DISCLAIMER: I feel mostly the same about this group as the QB group, in that it is very hard to see which undrafted RBs are legitimately worth bets to outscore most of the top-10 guys. The position is just missing so much depth this week.
Chicago vs. Detroit:
- This game is set up for lots of fantasy production (both defenses bottom-five in rush defense DVOA), the problem just being that both backfields come with unpredictable usage. I will lay out why I have some interest, but keep in mind the splits on each side could ultimately prevent any of them from helping your roster.
- Chicago RBs: Detroit is allowing the sixth most RB fantasy points per game behind the fourth most RB rush yards per game and second most RB rush touchdowns (11). Before holding Green Bay to nine, Detroit had allowed between 24-48 points in every game. Chicago has scored 31.3 points per game over the last three weeks, with Fields scoring as many rushing touchdowns as Monty and Herbert combined (three). If the touchdowns go through one of the RBs this week, a big game is in play.
- David Montgomery: Montgomery has nine games of 20+ fantasy points (half-PPR) in the last 2.5 seasons, so he’s proven capable of the necessary ceiling. He has 14-17 rush attempts in six-of-7 full games. Since returning in Week 5, he leads Herbert in red zone touches 14 to 5. He leads Herbert in receptions 13 to 3 in games played together.
- Khalil Herbert: Despite fewer rush attempts, Herbert has out-rushed Monty in four-of-seven games together. Before last week’s seven attempts in a tough RB matchup vs Miami, Herbert had 28 rush attempts to Monty’s 30 in the two games prior. Every career game where Herbert has at least 10 rush attempts, he has rushed for 70+ yards.
- Detroit RBs: Chicago is allowing the fifth most RB fantasy points per game behind the sixth most RB rush yards per game and second most RB touchdowns (12). Chicago has recently allowed point totals of 29 (MIN), 49 (DAL) and 35 (MIA), and also traded away two of their best defenders in that time. Notable top Detroit RB scores this year already: 25, 15.7, 23.7, 23.4, 21.1.
- D’Andre Swift: Despite injuries and often what can feel like frustrating usage in his career, Swift has eight games of 20+ fantasy points in his 30 career games. When healthy, Swift is typically a highly drafted player due to that ceiling. Selecting him is a bet his usage swings way back up and he uses that high efficiency to score multiple times in a high scoring game. He outscored Williams in the first two weeks before being limited with his lingering injury.
- Jamaal Williams: Williams has the 13th most RB fantasy points this season thanks to four games of two touchdowns. He has 26 red zone touches on the season. Selecting him is a bet that Swift remains extremely limited, and that he continues to rack up work as the lead back on his way to scoring multiple touchdowns..
Notable WRs missing from this slate: AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Garrett Wilson, DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin
WRs with upside outside the top-14 drafted:
- Denver WRs: Tennessee has been one of the most generous defenses to wide receivers for fantasy purposes in each of the last three seasons. Between Sutton & Jeudy (or even Dulcich), it is almost a given that one of these guys has a strong game this week. Sutton led Jeudy in targets 46 to 29 in the first 5 weeks, but Jeudy has led 25 to 16 in the last 3. The main thing holding these guys back (and why they are down here in the undrafted bucket in the first place), is Denver is currently the third lowest scoring team in the NFL with a pathetic 15.1 points per game. This is a bet on one of them being able to score and likely help produce one of Denver’s best scoring games of the season.
- Darnell Mooney: A lot about this game environment has been written already in the RB section, but it also applies here. Detroit has given up the fourth most WR fantasy points per game, and the third most completed air yds, something that bodes well for an explosive play threat like Mooney. He finished with 135 and 125 yards in his two games vs Detroit in 2021. He now has a more legitimate WR opposite him to draw some defensive attention (his eight targets in Claypool’s first game were actually his second most all season). Fields will be 100% owned, but very few will pair him with Mooney.
Notable TEs missing from this slate: Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, Kyle Pitts, Gerald Everett, Hayden Hurst
- Massive advantage for Kelce this week, should be the first pick every time. Every roster without Kelce should be thinking about ways to leverage his success, i.e:
- Juju Smith-Schuster
- One of the first round players that never slip to a Kelce roster (i.e. Tyreek Hill or Saquon Barkley) puts up a must have score; now what does that mean for the rest of the roster?
If I can’t get Kelce, then I’m usually looking to stack my TE with QB. I also like a healthier Dalton Schultz with Dak Prescott back, considering his splits with Dak, and Greg Dulcich’s upside in a nice matchup. David Njoku is expected to return, but the high ankle sprain does worry me a bit considering its long-standing history of negative performance impact.
- Fields + Swift/Williams
- Fields + Mooney + (St. Brown)
- Goff + St. Brown + (Monty/Herbert/Mooney)
- Wilson + Jeudy/Sutton/Dulcich
- Dak + Pollard + Schultz
- Stafford + Kupp + (Higbee)
Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!