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Sunday, Jan 29th — Late
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Top 300 Test

Last updated 6/13/2022

Scoring: Full-PPR

wdt_ID RK TIERS PLAYER NAME PR HILOW'S NOTES
1 1 1 Christian McCaffrey RB1 Best asset in fantasy football on a per-game basis
2 2 1 Cooper Kupp WR1 League cannot contain this man on this offense
3 3 1 Dalvin Cook RB2 New HC (former QB), expect improved offensive efficiency - all comes down to health
4 4 2 Jonathan Taylor RB3 I expect a slight dip in RB opportunities via Nyheim Hines
5 5 2 Justin Jefferson WR2 See Cook, Dalvin
6 6 2 Aaron Jones RB4 200+ carries and 100-115 targets on a top-level-talent baren offense
7 7 2 Austin Ekeler RB5 Will need to keep his TD rate high to pay off mid-first ADP
8 8 2 Najee Harris RB6 380+ touches a near lock - don't fight volume
9 9 2 Travis Kelce TE1 YPRR and other efficiency metrics down - volume king at TE
10 10 3 Joe Mixon RB7 See Ekeler, Austin
11 11 3 Derrick Henry RB8 Heavy tread off those tires, needs to stay healthy
12 12 3 Davante Adams WR3 Most nervous about this man of any first-round ranks
13 13 3 Leonard Fournette RB9 Should start the season on fire with Godwin likely out - Gronk's return likely lowers him to RB12 range
14 14 3 CeeDee Lamb WR4 Almost ranked Cederian at WR3 (might just happen here shortly)
15 15 3 Ja'Marr Chase WR5 League winners almost always see regression the following year - talent is undeniable
16 16 3 Stefon Diggs WR6 I expect positive TD regression after leading the league in EZ targets in 2021
17 17 3 D'Andre Swift RB10 More mouths to feed in DET on an offense led by Jared Goff - falls outside top 12 in half PPR
18 18 3 Saquon Barkley RB11 Saquon's per-game ranks would have hiim in the top 5 at the position - needs to stay healthy
19 19 4 Alvin Kamara RB12 Suspension? Offensive efficiency? Enough questions to keep him at the end of the RB1s
20 20 4 Michael Pittman Jr. WR7 My breakout WR of the year - ADP creeping up but still not high enough
21 21 4 DJ Moore WR8 Volume, volume, volume
22 22 4 Tyreek Hill WR9 Will come down to schemed usage
23 23 4 Mike Evans WR10 Should start the season on fire with Godwin likely out - will need to maintain high TD efficiency
24 24 4 JK Dobbins RB13 Ravens averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game in 2021 after averaging 25.9 in 2020 - one of the top values at RB on the board
25 25 4 Nick Chubb RB14 Don't go crazy if Kareem Hunt is dealt - CLE very comfortable with his role
26 26 4 Deebo Samuel WR11 Don't fight talent and efficiency - QB change holds him back for me
27 27 4 Mike Williams WR12 WR breakout candidate number two
28 28 4 Adam Thielen WR13 WR15 or better in FPPG each of the past three seasons - one of the top values of the top 7 rounds
29 29 4 Keenan Allen WR14 Aging and past prime, declining efficiency metrics - volume enough to keep him a high WR2
30 30 4 Mark Andrews TE2 Inverse of JK Dobbins - one of my early draft season fades
31 31 4 Courtland Sutton WR15 WR breakout candidate number three
32 32 4 A.J. Brown WR16 Should maintain efficiency on short to intermediate routes - Hurts' downfield abilities slight dent
33 33 5 James Conner RB15 Finally put in a full season in 2021 and we saw the reward - health remains a question
34 34 5 Kyle Pitts TE3 If Marcus Mariota starts the entire year he moves to my TE2 (Mariota loves him some TE)
35 35 5 Brandin Cooks WR17 Keep sleeping, y'all
36 36 5 Diontae Johnson WR18 Volume, volume, volume
37 37 5 Josh Allen QB1 Undisputed QB1 - but where do you take the first QB off the board? 3/4 turn is fine by me
38 38 5 Ezekiel Elliott RB16 No qualms ranking him as a mid-RB2 - becoming a nice little value in the fourth round
39 39 5 DK Metcalf WR19 Volume and talent outweigh questions at QB
40 40 5 Amari Cooper WR20 See Metcalf, DK
41 41 5 Tee Higgins WR21 See Chase, Ja'Marr
42 42 5 Jaylen Waddle WR22 Tyreek and Waddle are going to be a fun tandem to watch this year - again, comes down to schemed usage
43 43 5 Terry McLaurin WR23 Volume, volume, volume
44 44 5 Javonte Williams RB17 Look, the dude can ball, but will the new regime give him 65% of the RB usage? 60%? 50%? Questions abound
45 45 5 David Montgomery RB18 Volume, volume, volume
46 46 5 Breece Hall RB19 Volume, volume, volume - RB19 is probably a little conservative (range of outcomes is anywhere from 2021 Michael Carter to 2021 Najee Harris)
47 47 5 Rashod Bateman WR24 BB darling for spike week potential
48 48 5 Travis Etienne Jr. RB20 Wide range of outcomes with so many variables in JAX (I won't argue with anything from RB13-RB24)
49 49 5 Josh Jacobs RB21 Volume likely going to take a hit with a crowded RB room, better in standard or .5 PPR
50 50 5 Marquise Brown WR25 Should start the season on fire with Nuk out, but how will they coexist?
51 51 5 Allen Robinson II WR26 Finally back to a QB comfortable throwing into tighter coverage (not a separator)
52 52 5 Darnell Mooney WR27 WR breakout candidate number four (could finish as a top 15-18 WR depending on downfield connections)
53 53 6 Lamar Jackson QB2 Will he maintain a high level of designed QB runs after injuries in 2021? Sky-high ceiling regardless
54 54 6 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR28 Now crowded offense helmed by Jared Goff - I'm uncomfortable ranking him any higher based on my range of outcomes projections
55 55 6 Cam Akers RB22 Upside is undeniable - health and usage questions remain
56 56 6 Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB23 Somethings gotta give here - either CEH sees more pass game usage or he's a perennial disappointment
57 57 6 Rob Gronkowski TE4 Waiting patiently for his return announcement - smashing in drafts now before that happens
58 58 6 Antonio Gibson RB24 Still expect solid volume - offense led by anti-checkdowner Carson Wentz
59 59 6 Jerry Jeudy WR29 Sky-high spike week potential but I feel the industry is overweighting his expected snap rate and volume
60 60 6 Damien Harris RB25 High TD expectancy when healthy - better in standard and .5 PPR
61 61 6 Chris Godwin WR30 Top 12 in FPPG expectation - late 2020 injury means everything from full season to PUP list on the table
62 62 6 Darren Waller TE5 Can this offense support the required volume for Waller to pay off ADP? I'm on team "NO"
63 63 6 DeAndre Hopkins WR31 Top 12 in FPPG expectation - will miss the first 6 games of the season
64 64 6 Dalton Schultz TE6 Expect him to up his route participation rates from a year ago
65 65 6 Tyler Lockett WR32 See Metcalf, DK
66 66 6 Miles Sanders RB26 Will this dude ever score another TD in the NFL? Kidding
67 67 6 George Kittle TE7 Better in BB than redraft - spike week potential abound but question weekly bankable volume (widest range of outcomes of top 12 TEs)
68 68 6 AJ Dillon RB27 Might still be too low here - less valuable in BB where spike weeks matter more (without an injury to Jones)
69 69 6 Justin Herbert QB3 Two of my top 14 WRs are Chargers plus Ekeler in the top 12 positionally - love this offense, love this division
70 70 6 Gabriel Davis WR33 Unreal efficiency in his career and now set to see 80%+ of the offensive snaps - might be too low here
71 71 6 Melvin Gordon III RB28 See Williams, Javonte but with a more bearable ADP - less valuable in BB where spike weeks matter more
72 72 6 Patrick Mahomes II QB4 Just barely my QB4 (3-5 all very close in median projections - while we're here, median projections are for jokers)
73 73 6 Michael Thomas WR34 Questions abound - wide range of outcomes
74 74 6 Cordarrelle Patterson RB29 Tons of questions in ATL surrounding backfield but he's getting paid like a guy to see some usage - current ADP value
75 75 6 Elijah Mitchell RB30 Durability and volume questions
76 76 7 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR35 Honestly pains me to have him this high - might change moving forward
77 77 7 Kyler Murray QB5 Will we see increased rushing return? Sky-high ceiling
78 78 7 T.J. Hockenson TE8 Now crowded offense helmed by Jared Goff - I'm uncomfortable ranking him any higher based on my range of outcomes projections
79 79 7 Joe Burrow QB6 Must maintain level of efficiency
80 80 7 Elijah Moore WR36 Talent plus volume on a poor offense
81 81 7 Jalen Hurts QB7 What offense will we see from PHI this year after a weird season in 2021? Off-season signings indicate an aggressive one
82 82 7 Dallas Goedert TE9 See Hurts, Jalen
83 83 7 Kareem Hunt RB31 Is he on the move? Where will he land? How much money are the Browns comfortable sinking into their backfield?
84 84 7 Chase Edmonds RB32 Getting paid like a number one but on a team with an extremely crowded running back room - wide range of potential outcomes here
85 85 7 Hunter Renfrow WR37 See Waller, Darren (oh, and the fact that the Raiders have ranked in the bottom 8 in RZ TD rate in back-to-back years) - great scheme fit though
86 86 7 DeVonta Smith WR38 See Brown, A.J.
87 87 7 Tony Pollard RB33 Similar to AJ Dillon - less valuable in BB where spike weeks matter more (top RB cuff in the game)
88 88 8 Devin Singletary RB34 Such a wide range of outcomes with this backfield - BUF one of the lowest RB target rates in the league past two seasons
89 89 8 Dak Prescott QB8 Priced right
90 90 8 Rashaad Penny RB35 Paid like "the man" but questions abound with the addition of Walker
91 91 8 Russell Wilson QB9 Upside for days in Denver
92 92 8 Nyheim Hines RB36 Current proud owner of the league's 12th-most expensive RB contract - will be involved
93 93 8 Brandon Aiyuk WR39 Has shown truly elite flashes, question the rest
94 94 8 Matthew Stafford QB11 Cooper Kupp. Enough said.
95 95 8 Michael Carter RB37 Perfect example why median projections are lame - likely to finish around here based on overall volume, but per-game volume lacking ( I won't have any)
96 96 8 Kenneth Walker III RB38 See Penny, Rashaad
97 97 8 Zach Ertz TE10 Volume expectation to start the year extremely high
98 98 8 Christian Kirk WR40 Good lord this dude got paid - Lawrence attempted more than 600 passes in his rookie season (might be too low here)
99 99 8 Treylon Burks WR41 Talent plus opportunity great, low pass volume offense
100 100 8 Robert Tonyan TE11 I expect him to see more than the 57% route participation that he saw in 2021
PR