The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS
Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.
NFL DFS on Thanksgiving can be a wild ride and extremely fun. Especially since the NFL moved a few years ago to having three games on the day, it’s pretty much a full day of football and fun. The tricky thing about this is that it is such a unique slate and many of us have a lot of other commitments on this day. It is easy to be tempted by an extra day of football at this point in the season, especially with the monster contests that the sites offer, but the nature of the slate is so unique that there is a tight line to balance of playing too much and overextending the bankroll.
Considering the nature of the day, size of the contests, and small number of games – do you have a preferred approach from a contest selection (size, price, and format) and/or bankroll approach?
I LOVE this question; it’s one I would not have thought to ask, but it’s one I have consciously been making decisions around this week.
Because my family is always traveling at Thanksgiving AND we have two “main slates” this week from a content perspective, I typically head into Wednesday evening thinking I won’t be playing this slate…and then, by Wednesday night, I find myself thinking, “Well, I’ve put in all this work on this slate; let’s see if I can find some rosters that give me an edge.”
Of course, at this point, I’ve followed this pattern enough times (and had enough big days on the Thanksgiving slate), that I’m now aware of the fact that I am probably playing this slate. With that said, I will allow “my feel for the slate” to dictate my approach.
My typical approach on this day is to play one roster in the $1500 Game Changer, and to otherwise leave the slate alone. To be clear, this is not a “prescription” — it’s just sort of been my tradition; and given that it’s a busy week on my end with content/work/family/travel, it makes sense for me to target a one-roster strategy.
I’ll also note that I’ve had at least one or two times in the last few years when I haven’t had enough time to play just one roster, and have instead gone three-max. This echoes the sentiment of the old quote attributed (I believe) to Mark Twain that goes something like, “I would have written you a shorter letter, but I didn’t have enough time.” Basically: yes, with less time available on a slate, I don’t want to get into the weeds with MME; but also, it takes MORE time to feel great about the expected value of a one-lineup approach than it takes to feel great about the expected value of a three- or even five-lineup approach.
I’m answering these questions on a plane from Denver to Tulsa on Tuesday, and tonight I’ll be recording the Winner Circle podcast, then tomorrow I’ll work all day on the NFL Edge for the Main Slate (in order to not miss too much time on Thanksgiving day with work, while still getting my writeups out there as early as possible for readers; my Friday doesn’t change on Thanksgiving week, which means my Edge writeups still have to be done by the end of the day on Thanksgiving day). This means I won’t know until late Wednesday night what I plan to do — whether I choose not to play (which would be a surprise), or choose to play three-max, or choose to put just one roster in play.
While this answer of mine doesn’t speak much to the strategy around this slate and “what you should do with your bankroll to account for what this slate provides,” it does speak to what many of us deal with this week :: “The Thanksgiving slate is fun to play; but also, there is real life going on this week that should ultimately dictate our own approach to this slate.” Get a feel for what you can do this week — and don’t do more than that.
I personally always set aside time on Thanksgiving for DFS (sometimes to my wife’s dismay) – to Mike’s point, a lot of people are playing very casually on this slate, they might set a lineup but they won’t check in throughout the day and late swap, and so to me this is one of the highest edge slates of the season. That doesn’t mean you’ll always be profitable on it, of course, as sharp rosters flop all the time…but the EV is there.
Normally on a short slate, I don’t enter as much volume as I would on a main slate, but Thanksgiving is the exception to me here. Personally I treat it like a regular main slate and try to get around my normal full slate buy-ins, because I feel like the edge is great and I want to hammer it. That approach may not work for you, though! If you go this route, make sure you have the appropriate amount of time to dedicate to DFS, both in prep before the slate and then being able to watch the slate as it progresses – one of the biggest advantages of Thanksgiving DFS is how the games are spread out, which allows you to assess where you are and react by swapping, and if you aren’t able to utilize this edge, I would recommend either not playing or just playing a modest amount for fun.
TL;DR – only enter as many rosters as you feel you can effectively watch and swap if needed.
First off, consider this – Thanksgiving weekend is the most viewed weekend of football outside of the Super Bowl. Now relate that to DFS – size of contests, skill of the average entry in contests, familial obligations, shortened week, time to prepare, etc. The edge is tangible this holiday weekend. That said, we should really be viewing this slate as another data point to amplify out expected value. As in, if you are a losing player, more volume simply means your money will bleed faster with an additional data point. But we here at OWS can use the additional data point to realize our equity sooner. All of that to say – nothing really changes for me outside of a few additional Milly Maker entries. Play your game and realize your equity faster!
For me, one of my greatest edges is my ability to see beyond the projections (ownership and otherwise) to be able to identify what the field is likeliest to see out of a slate. That edge is amplified on a short slate (although I haven’t quite perfected how to harness it for showdown slates just yet), meaning I’ll be looking to attack this weekend with little remorse.
There is a ton of edge on this slate, but it can also be super hard to realize that edge in a huge way because of the likelihood of duplicate lineups and soft pricing. I like to play a few higher $ entries in smaller fields as those present more realistic paths to a big score, but also like to build a lot of different lineups in MME-style contests as there are a lot of fun, creative ways to give yourself a sweat going into the last game and the uniqueness of the ability to late swap and exploit variable change (explored in the next question) makes this slate one of a kind in a lot of ways. For this week, I’ll be using the Bink Machine to mass enter the Milly Maker on Draftkings and hand build for a couple of the higher dollar single entry tournaments. On Fanduel, I will play three or four entries in the $55 “Gravy Bomb” and then again use the Bink Machine to mass enter the big $3 tournament, the “Roasted Rush”.
One of the most +EV things that is available to us on any DFS slate is the ability to late swap. The fact of the matter is that extra information is available to us after each game completes and we can use the information from the game’s results as well as ownership to help us make the best decisions going forward. As a bonus, a very small percentage of our competition actually uses this option. While we don’t always have to make the swap, at least looking at it and considering it can help us in all types of contests. The extra unique thing about this slate is that there is usually 30 minutes to an hour between each game ending and the next one starting, giving us actual time to have the complete information and a bit of time to dissect how we want to use that information – this is very different from a usual Sunday NFL DFS slate where most games are still going on when the second wave of game kickoff.
With all of that in mind, do you have any specific strategies you use prior to or during the Thanksgiving slate in regards to late swap?
