Thursday, Sep 5th
Monday, Sep 9th

The Scroll Week 7

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    The DFS Slate

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    Meet The Team


    Angles

    Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

    OWS Fam —

    What a weekend!

    At OWS, we try to keep the same mindset as NFL players and coaches (“One week at a time; don’t think too far ahead; don’t waste time looking back”), but we wouldn’t be doing right by our community if we didn’t highlight some of the things that happened this last weekend.

    It’s impossible to ignore the level at which the OWS community has been wrecking the DFS field this season, and Week 6 was more of the same, with wins and Top 10 finishes across a wide array of major DFS tourneys, including:

    • 1st in the $250k Red Zone
    • 1st in the $500k Spy
    • 2nd in the $500k Power Sweep
    • 2nd in the $300k Flea Flicker (Mike Johnson!)
    • 2nd in the $200k Fair Catch (Mike Johnson!)
    • 3rd in the $500k Spy
    • 3rd in the $150k Slant (yours truly)
    • 1st in at least five different FanDuel tourneys, in multiple Showdown tourneys, in a large number of smaller Main Slate tourneys, in Sunday-Monday tourneys, and in Afternoon-Only tourneys

    To give you an idea of just how dominant the OWS community has been: we had 14 OWS pennants in the top 100 of The Slant, from nine different community members — and that doesn’t even include members of the OWS Fam who don’t rep the OWS pennant as their avatar. (Note: if you want to add your own splash of orange to the leaderboards, you can find the OWS pennant avatar on your profile page!)

    We’ve had big wins from the community all six weeks of the season so far, and we’ve had collectively HUGE weekends five of six weeks. Pretty incredible what we’re building at OWS.

    If it hasn’t happened for you yet, don’t fret. Look around you. Your turn is coming.

    With that, let’s turn our attention to Week 7 — a very unique, very interesting slate.

    Week 7 Angles

    Several years ago, I had a one-off podcast (I believe it was an OWS Chat Pod — which no longer exists) in which I focused on the concept of “processing information without judgement.” The idea here is that it’s valuable to remain emotionally neutral — to withhold labels of opinion: “good,” “bad,” etc. — whenever possible. Ideally, we hold to the parable of the Chinese farmer, in which “maybe” is our reply to the binary judgements/opinions of others (again: “this is good,” “this is bad,” etc.; instead, we say, “Maybe”). This mindset can also be described as, “It is what it is.” In other words: “This isn’t good, or bad; this just IS. We deal with each small puzzle in life on a case-by-case basis, and the goal is simply to solve each one.”

    I bring that up right now because scoring is down across the NFL (for a variety of reasons — some of which I’ll talk about in this week’s Angles Pod), and this week provides a pretty clear example of that, as we have 20 teams playing on the Main Slate, and 17 are implied to score 23.5 or fewer points, while 14 teams are not even implied to top 22 points. On top of that, the teams implied to top 23.5 are as follows:

    >> The Chiefs, implied to score 26.75 against the Chargers. As we know, the Chiefs run out a deep rotation on offense that makes it difficult for any tourney-winners to materialize, and the two “core pieces” of their offense (Patrick Mahomes // Travis Kelce) are priced high enough that an implied total of 26.75 doesn’t necessarily make them clear, standout plays.

    >> The Seahawks, implied to score 26.0 against the Cardinals. As we know, the Seahawks have a long history under Pete Carroll of only producing tourney-winning DFS scores when their offense is pushed by the opposing offense, as Seattle approaches games, philosophically, in a “chess match” manner, where the goal is to have an advantage in the fourth quarter and maneuver to a win. Seattle can score 24 to 27 points without game environment help from the Cardinals, but they’ll likely need help in order to climb into true, “tourney-winning” territory.

    >> The Bills, implied to score 24.5 against the Patriots. The Patriots have failed to generate big plays on defense this year, and their own offense continues to put opposing offenses in good position, but good NFL offenses/players have continued to struggle this year to notch notable statistical production against Bill Belichick’s crew. (No QB has topped 265 yards in this matchup — a list that includes Hurts // Tua // Dak || no WR has topped 86 yards in this matchup — a list that includes A.J. Brown // Tyreek // CeeDee // Olave // Davante.) 

    These are the three teams at the “top” this week, and every other team is implied to score 23.5 or fewer points.

    Typically, we “open the funnel” into the week by highlighting some of the key teams/players on the slate, some of the key teams/players missing from the slate, and what this means for the macro slate setup; but this week, the setup is less about “who’s playing and who’s not,” and is more about “who on this slate can actually crack 30 points?”

    If you find the answer to this question in enough spots this week, you probably end up winning, as this is not a slate that sets up well for offensive explosion.

    As for how this fits into the broader macro structure/strategy:

    Because of the fact that “chalk forms no matter what,” weeks like this tend to create more sub-optimal chalk than normal, which increases the value of higher-floor plays “who can go for ceiling.” Get a bunch of these players “correct” across your roster, and you’re going to be ahead of a large chunk of the field.

    At the same time, this is a week in which “the random, unowned 30-pointer” becomes exponentially more valuable, as you can potentially unlock your path to first place by landing this rare 30-pointer on the right remaining combination of players (hint: perhaps the types of players mentioned in the previous paragraph: higher-floor plays “who can go for ceiling”).

    This is the type of week that can seem adversarial to most of our competition (“This slate is ugly; I don’t even know what to do with it”), which increases the chances that they step into the flow of the groupthink and add to your edge.

    This week is not “good.”

    This week is not “bad.”

    This week just IS.

    Let’s solve it.

    Bink Machine :: NBA!

    By popular request, we’re adding the Bink Machine for NBA(!).

    The Bink Machine will be populated with projections and ownership projections from FTN (a site I have a massive amount of respect for, and where I do most of my NFL research these days), and we’ll have a sharp community on Discord if you’re looking to work through your thoughts on a slate.

    The Bink Machine for NBA will be $39 for a month pass (same as NFL), and only $179 for a full season. Code TIPOFF will take an additional $20 off that full-season price (we’ll expire this code after tipoff, next Tuesday).

    $52 Off Props Monthly!

    As you know, we are capping the number of spots available for Props Insider, as this protects our users from getting their bets flagged.

    If you want to grab one of those spots, you can take $52 off the first month of Props Insider(!).

    As long as you renew, you’ll keep your spot — and if you want to cancel your monthly renewal at any point, we’ll make that spot available to someone new.

    There are 187 spots remaining, and I don’t imagine they’ll last too long, with NBA about to tip off.

    We finished last NBA season over $9,000 in profit (+92 units), and we’re up $9,400 (+94 units) already this year.

    Code PROPS knocks the first month down to $98.

    Hopefully I’ll see you in Props Insider soon.

    And I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards on Sunday!

    The Workbook

    Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS

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    Around The Industry

    Introduced in 2023, ‘Around The Industry’ provides a snapshot of sentiments from respected voices in the DFS and fantasy spaces.

    NOTE 1: Contributors’ scores are tallied each week, with a cash prize going to the leader at the end of the season

    NOTE 2: Full-PPR scoring

    Pro Tip: Turn phone horizontal if viewing on your phone

    End Around

    Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

    MACRO SLATE VIEW::

    This slate is fun and exciting because it has every feel of a slate that the field is likely to get significantly tripped up with. Beyond the low game totals and poor expected game environments, we’re seeing some highly questionable chalk developing as people seem to be looking toward fragile situations for perceived certainty. Not that I expect the chalk on the slate to fully fail, just that there are far more paths to failure for a lot of the chalk pieces than the field seems to realize.

    We also have a bright and shiny game environment with a game total that far surpasses any other game that is likely to draw significant interest – which, as you guessed it, has more paths to failure than the field seems to realize. Add it all up, and this slate becomes more labyrinth than puzzle, with wrong turns and set traps strewn throughout. 

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

    Quick explanation: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

    KENNETH WALKER

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK. As you’ll quickly see, Walker is yet another chalk back on this slate who is either a yardage-and-touchdown back or has some other serious contributor to fragility. The role and matchup are pristine (26 red zone opportunities including seven goal line carries, 70.1 percent opportunity share, backup Zach Charbonnet appears on the worse side of questionable after not practicing all week, Cardinals surrendering 1.50 yards before contact per carry), but that doesn’t change the fact that Walker doesn’t carry enough pass volume to offset the need for 100 yards on the ground and multiple scores to reach a GPP-worthy ceiling. That is very much within his range of outcomes here, all things considered, but there is always merit to thinking twice about a yardage and touchdown back with a 4.2 yards per carry mark and a 20.5 percent stuffed run rate (Walker is a “ones and zeros” runner, capable of ripping off chunk gains but also struggling with consistent vision).

    JOSH JACOBS

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK. We’ll continue having the same discussion every week on Jacobs, it seems. The volume and role are great. The pass game usage is great. The efficiency is borderline laughable at this point, boasting a robust 2.9 yards per carry (63rd? lolz), 3.9 yards per touch (38th), 1.9 percent breakaway run rate (yeah, it gets that low), and a 25.2 percent stuffed run rate (for comparison, everyone’s favorite punching bear, Najee Harris, has a 25.4 percent stuffed run rate). The matchup has some serious recency bias associated with it as it yields the third worst net yards before contact value on the slate (behind only the Patriots and Buccaneers), yet the field seems to think the Bears are atrocious against the run still. The saving grace here is Jacobs has legitimate double digit target upside in this spot, although even the chances of that happening take a hit with veteran quarterback Brian Hoyer expected to draw the start this week.

    ISIAH PACHECO

    NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Pacheco has been held to 18 running back opportunities or less in four of six games, with the two outlier games coming against the Jets in his hometown (20 carries and three targets) and against the hapless Broncos (16 carries and six targets). He has been held to four or fewer targets in four of six games with a season-high of six last week against the Broncos. That said, the matchup generates the highest net yards before contact and Pacheco has increased his utilization in the red zone this season, seeing 22 red zone touches including four goal line carries through six games. We must play running backs, and Pacheco is a running back . . . kidding y’all. Pacheco projects as one of the better point-per-dollar plays on the slate so it’s not all doom and gloom, I simply want to highlight the fact that he is probably more fragile than his expected ownership would indicate.

    COOPER KUPP

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Yes. End of analysis.

    KEENAN ALLEN

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Volume – good. Talent – good. Matchup – yikes city, population Keenan. Keenan has a locked-in, volume-induced floor in this spot due to expected game environment, projected volume, and talent, but he is going to need to surpass 100 yards receiving and find paint multiple times to pay off his lofty price tag. Also, how quickly the field is to forget (or completely neglect?) Keenan’s splits with running back Austin Ekeler on and off the field during the previous three seasons. Spoiler alert – they aren’t pretty. But he’s the top wide receiver in the game with the highest game total, so we must play him . . . right? RIGHT? The price is wrong, Bob. The funniest part is Keenan is priced right between two wide receivers that are in much better matchups with greater chances of seeing 15+ targets in Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams (and also have much higher touchdown equity).

    JAHMYR GIBBS

    NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I get it, the rookie is likely to see his highest snap rate and opportunity share of his short career. That’s the good. The bad is a matchup that generates a net yards before contact of just 1.28 yards, which is about the same as the Saints versus the Jaguars yielded on Thursday Night Football. Gibbs also somewhat quietly has 10 stuffed runs on just 39 carries, good for (bad for?) a 25.6 percent stuffed run rate (30th in the league). The Ravens have held opposing backs to 4.0 yards per carry and have ceded just one rushing score through six games. Gibbs likely brings enough receiving usage to offset the need for multiple touchdowns in this spot, but he remains highly unlikely to surpass 100 yards on the ground, leaving behind a rather shaky ceiling.

    LUKE MUSGRAVE

    EXPANSIVE CHALK. A rookie tight end that has seen more than four targets just twice through six weeks, and those six weeks were played without the team’s top two options on the field together due to injury, and those players are now healthy. Yeah, checks out . . . the field is truly reaching for any semblance of value.

    ZAY FLOWERS

    NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. The rookie wide receiver has double digit looks in half of his games this season, all while his team averages the third fewest pass attempts per game through six weeks. Per PFF, Flowers leads Baltimore receivers in fantasy points per route run (0.45) and receiving grade (77.4) against zone coverage this season, of which the Lions are in at an above average 77.3 percent clip. But a lot of that is due to his presence on the field at a rate much higher than anyone else on the team. His moderate 22.8 percent targets per route run rate against zone coverage helps tell the full story here. Flowers is highly likely to see eight to 10 targets in this spot but I am slightly hesitant to extrapolate an elite cost-considered ceiling on his small sample size – not to mention the matchup is less than ideal and the primary target earner against zone coverage in this offense remains tight end Mark Andrews, who might be the most mispriced player on the entire slate (they are the same price at $5,700).

    CHALK BUILD::

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    JM’s Player Grid

    JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate


    OWS Fam ::

    This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

    This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing


    The Grid ::

    Bottom-Up Build

    :: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

    Blue Chips

    :: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

    Build-Arounds

    :: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

    Building Blocks

    :: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

    Bonuses

    :: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective


    Bottom-Up Build

    Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).

    Bottom-Up Build
    DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K

    Deshaun Watson
    Jerome Ford
    Aaron Jones
    Amari Cooper
    Zay Flowers
    Terry McLaurin
    Jonnu Smith
    Rondale Moore
    Patriots

    Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

    Buy-In:

    Free

    Rules:

    Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

    Prizes:

    1st Place = 250 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
    2nd Place = 100 Edge Points
    3rd Place = 75 Edge Points
    4th Place = 50 Edge Points
    5th Place = 25 Edge Points

    *1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS

    << Join Here >>

    *must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win


    Sunday Morning Update

    As is typically the case, no major changes on my end.

    QB exposure ended up being Watson // Howell // Stafford at the top, with Mahomes // Love in the middle and a bit of Lamar // Tyrod at the bottom.

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    Blue Chips

    Cooper Kupp

    Not a whole lot needs to be said here. Throwing out the game in which he got hurt last year, Kupp has scored 20+ DraftKings points in 22/27 games since the start of 2021, while topping 26 points 17 times and scoring fewer than 16 points only once. On a week in which 30-point scores could be tough to come by, and “guys who can score 20 points” can also, easily, fall shy of that mark, the locked-in points provided by Kupp are more valuable than normal. From a “salary multiplier” standpoint, he’s an overpay; but he’s a sharp overpay nevertheless.

    “Light Blue” Chips

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    Build-Arounds

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    Building Blocks

    Two-By-Two
    Evans + Kupp
    Story:

    “Evans gets the bulk of the touches, and the Rams do well.”

    Why It Works:

    The Rams’ backfield has had four strong games and two disappointing games. In both of their disappointing games, the Rams’ WR1 posted season-lows, and in all four of their strong games, the Rams’ WR1 did really well (24.9 for Puka in Week 1; 30+ in the other three). The Rams are A) a concentrated offense, and B) an offense that doesn’t rely on chunk plays, while the Rams’ RB position derives a lot of its fantasy value from touchdowns. In games in which the Rams’ WR1 is underperforming, the Rams are likely to be moving the ball less well, which means fewer opportunities for RB touchdowns. In games in which the Rams’ WR1 is racking up yards and catches, the chances of touchdowns flowing to the RB are increased. This is a positively-correlated pairing that most people won’t recognize as such. The uncertainty around Evans’ role should keep his ownership from climbing too high, but I’ll further offset my Evans rosters by playing a Rams wideout on every single one.

    How It Works:

    This isn’t “enough on its own” to set your roster apart, but this does materially change your salary structure (most people who pay up for Kupp won’t also play Evans — thus, their salary structure becomes different from yours; and most people who play Evans will end up paying up in a different, cheaper way, again making their salary structure different from yours). This makes this block a really nice differentiator, in addition to being a block that simply plays into the math.

    POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

    The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

    Two-By-Two, Part II

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    Bink Machine

    A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

    Walker // Geno

    As we know, Kenneth Walker has only cracked 20 DK points three times in his career (going for 30+ all three times), with his touchdown-heavy production profile making it harder for him to go for a monster game. Because his high-end games tend to be so touchdown-reliant, Geno Smith is less likely to have a big game if Walker is hitting (Geno’s DK scores when Walker has hit :: 15.1 // 16.4 // 21.8). I’m typically on-board with playing a running back alongside his QB and a pass catcher, but given the unique offensive profile of the Seahawks, I’ll want to make sure that I’m not doing that with this team.

    Note that there is no anchor in this rule. This rule can be read, “On 100% of rosters, play a maximum of one of these two players (and a minimum of 0).” I.e., plenty of rosters will have neither; but if a roster has one of these guys, it won’t have the other.

    Wideouts Required

    If I have a quarterback with rushing upside, or with an elite tight end, or if my QB is particularly touchdown-dependent for his production (Jordan Love is a good example of this), I’ll be okay leaving wide receivers off those builds. What I don’t want to do is bet on someone like Sam Howell or Matthew Stafford (where completions and yards will be required for them to hit) with only their running back or tight end. These rules below ensure that if I’m playing Howell or Stafford, at least one of their wide receivers will be included on that build.

    “On 100% of (Howell // Stafford) rosters, include at least one, and as many as two of these wide receivers.”

    Bonuses

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    If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

    This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

    If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

    QB ::

    Mahomes || Stafford || Geno || Love || Deshaun || Howell || Dobbs

    RB ::

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    A Wrap ::

    I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

    -JM

    Mike’s Player Grid

    Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests


    Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will likely evolve as the season progresses but should provide a lot of value. Enjoy!!


    The Core

    This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my Checking The Boxes course. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites, unless otherwise noted:

    Running Back ::

    Tier 1
    • Kenneth Walker – Last week I said this about Walker:: Walker has handled 17 or more opportunities in every game this year and his offensive line is now healthier than it has been all year in a matchup against a bottom-3 run defense by most metrics. Pretty much all of that still holds true and now Zach Charbonnet is expected to miss this game.
    • Bijan Robinson – It’s going to happen. And I’m going to be there when it does.
    • Jahmyr Gibbs – The matchup is tough against the Ravens, but this game has sneaky shootout potential and the Lions may have learned their lesson from the last time they tried to force Gibbs to run between the tackles. I think we could see a “Bijan-like” situation here where Gibbs is getting 12-15 carries and 5 or 6 receptions.
    • Austin Ekeler – The best running back on the slate and “checks every box”.
    tier 2
    • Isiah Pacheco – Averaging over 20 touches per game over his last three games, in a good matchup, on the team with the highest implied total on the slate.
    • Aaron Jones – The engine to his offense and in a great matchup. Was dominant in his one appearance this season and should be featured near the goal line and in the passing game.
    • Jerome Ford – He’s still the lead back and Kareem Hunt is dealing with an injury. Ford has a good matchup this week and the Colts have given up multiple rushing TDs in four of six games so far this year.
    • Josh Jacobs – The Bears run defense has actually been pretty solid this year, but I’m mentioning Jacobs because I wouldn’t be surprised if his heavy offensive involvement turns into a two or three touchdown game soon

    Tight End :: 

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    Papy’s Pieces

    Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

    The Board
    • This is an “ugly” week for DFS with zero games sporting a total north of 50. 
    • The highest scoring game of the week is projected to be LAC // KC (48) in a game that has appealing elements but involves the spread-it-out, strong defense Chiefs who haven’t created the game environments they once did. Even if this game ends up being high scoring, there is still a chance no one produces a must-have-it score at their price. 
    • The second highest total is GB // DEN (45) which is far from a sure thing. In addition to a lack of strong game environments, there are a lot of weak ones, with five games rocking totals of 40 or lower. 
    • This is the type of week where you should forget about totals and focus on picking individual players who are in the right spots. Totals tend to mean more for QBs // RBs // TEs than they do WRs. 
    • Explosive WR scores emerge more often in low total games than they do at the other positions, making this a great week to pay down (especially at QB) while focusing on trying to nail the WRs. 
    Pawn – QB Jordan Love ($5,800)

    Love has been one of the most aggressive QBs in the league this year, leading the league in intended air yards per attempt. That’s an amazing stat considering that his best downfield weapon (Christian Watson) didn’t play until Week 4 (46% of snaps) and didn’t look himself until Week 5 (84% of snaps). Love is a gunslinger, who wants to attack vertically and offers you potential with his legs. That’s a great combination against a defense that has been lit on fire this year. The Broncos are last in a myriad of defensive metrics, and there are starting to be rumors of a fire sale rebuild. There are a lot of good options at QB this week priced below $6,000, which should spread ownership. With Love currently projected to be around 8%, sign me up.

    Knight – WR Drake London ($5,100)

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    Sonic’s MME Pool

    Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

    Why Not Us?

    Yes, this slate is ugly as hell. But it turns out DraftKings is still awarding a million dollars to the best roster, so I’ve decided to submit a copious number of lineups. Someone is still going to win, so let’s build rosters with as much upside as possible. 

    As you know, this space is not for team “play the best plays”. We have every angle covered here at OWS. My job is to help us dig for some lower-owned spots and some duos that can access high ceilings should their respective games shoot out.

    Secondary Core-Relations

    We’re always hunting for those high-ceiling combinations to add to our existing game stacks. It’s better to aim at getting four things right instead of trying to hit a nine-way parlay. I’ll lean on a handful of core secondary stacks that will be finessed into lineups whenever feasible.

    Cooper Kupp/Diontae Johnson

    I like fantasy points. Therefore, I’ll be playing a ton of Cooper Kupp. Sadly, I will not be alone in this venture as he should be owned in the 20-25% range. Diontae appears to be coming in at around 9% ownership. On a shorter slate like this, a $5000 target hog at sub-10% is something I consider a discount. Hopefully, he’s at full health because he could be the key to unlocking this struggling Steelers offense and pushing this game into overdrive. 

    Curtis Samuel/Saquon Barkley (or Darius Slayton)

    Samuel’s involvement in the Commanders offense has been encouraging (29 opportunities on the season), and his efficiency has been ridiculous (84.6% catch rate). He’s also a valued weapon in the red zone with eight opportunities. The other three Washington receivers have only five looks combined. If they are approaching the scoring area, Samuels is on the field and either he or an RB is likely to touch the football. 

    The games in which Curtis posted a desirable score all occurred when his team needed to aggressively keep pace with their opponent. This brings us to the Giants. Some positives came out of their 14-9 loss in Buffalo last week. Saquon Barkley was given 29 (👀) opportunities and a pecking order was seemingly established in the wide receiver room. If Tyrod Taylor plays again this week, I like Darius Slayton, especially if he sticks around his current ownership projection of 1.5%. If this game is going to ignite, a deep connection to Slayton could be the catalyst.  

    I’ll be running Terry McLaurin and (gulp) Johan Dotson across from these guys as well.

    Mark Andrews/Sam LaPorta 

    Please don’t show this to Xandamere. I don’t need that kind of noise today. 

    Most double tight end lineups include at least one in the very cheap price range. This is because recreational DFS players don’t have OWS in their lives and they aren’t familiar with the bottom-up approach to roster building. They jam in their favorite players and then say “shit, I only have $3300 average salary left for a tight end, flex, and defense”. Not a ton of rosters will have these two tight ends, especially without their quarterbacks.

    Andrews and LaPorta are both cases where they project comparably to the receivers priced around them, so we aren’t sacrificing a ton of projection here. Marquise Brown is priced the same as LaPorta but he comes with twice the ownership and could be somewhat fragile since Josh Dobbs has come back down to earth. Plus, I like the idea of hammering this price range and using guys like Brown and Christian Watson in lineups with this pairing. A Packers stack where we fade the chalky Luke Musgrave in favor of two other tight ends will be unique and affordable. 

    This game would likely need to exceed its Vegas total and/or have the touchdowns concentrated around these guys for this play to work, but you can say that about almost every angle in large-field tournaments.

    Lower-Owned Treasures

    Running Back

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    Willing To Lose

    Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

    Have you ever won a bet you never made? Me too. I’m undefeated. Why does this happen so often? It’s because we have the intelligence to make snap judgments based on instincts, and frankly, without money on the line, we simply don’t care as much about the outcome. There’s an old saying (mostly applicable to relationships) that the “person who cares the least, wins the most,” but I’ve found this to be true in many other aspects of life. When you lower your expectations and loosen the pressure you put on yourself (or feel from others) to be perfect, things tend to get easier.

    Think about it. When you really want something, what happens to you? This object that occupies your mind causes you to overthink the situation. You likely lose some sleep over it as you analyze the decision or event from every angle and it ultimately creates a sort of paralysis in your mind, that this thing you want is the most important thing ever. But, when we’re able to play it down in our minds and treat it just as any other event, then we actually remain calm. We keep our minds clear of clutter. We keep our rationality, maintain decisiveness, and boost our performance. These are important traits to have on hand at all times. And they are all a product of caring less!

    It’s easy to get pulled into the pressure and the needs of what we want and get away from this core concept (in my words) of staying loose. But I’d be willing to bet that you are at your best when you are loose, and with the training and experiences you have had (no matter the subject area), you can perform well when you aren’t in your own head. These concepts apply in the same exact fashion when making sports predictions. Understand you have good instincts and stop worrying about every single angle and possible outcome. You won’t be able to cover every square. We preach here (on OWS) all the time about how you should build for YOU! And this week, that means loosening up. You have training already on how to build winning DFS lineups. This week, build those lineups, enter the contests, and switch up your game-watching routine to do something a bit more productive on Sunday. Try caring just a bit less when building and when tracking your rosters, and see what happens. Maybe this will be your week!

    Non-Chargers // Chiefs Overstacks

    We talked earlier this season about how overstacks (5+ players in the same game) in any given matchup could be more viable than ever. With scoring down yet again across the NFL, this is an unnatural move for any DFS roster builder. Seeing implied team totals hovering somewhere in the low 20s and game totals expected in the low 40s doesn’t exactly scream “stack it up!” But, any time a strategy is viable, yet uncomfortable, we should be flocking to it.

    The game that jumps off the page this week (at face value, not via expected totals) is the Chargers and the Chiefs. We can reasonably expect this to be the most “game stacked” matchup on this slate. However, if we avoid building our rosters like this, and overstack another game, we can take advantage of two separate leverage points: 1) be in the minority by overstacking to begin with, and 2) jump all the Chargers and Chiefs stacks should that game fail. We always want the 1-2 punch with our rosters. And if this strategy hits this season (spoiler alert: it will; remember Ravens // Dolphins and Lions // Seahawks last season), then I always want to be early to deploy a strategy that others will chase the following week. 

    As for the games to target, there are two that stand out to me: Lions at Ravens and Cardinals at Seahawks. Taking Detroit and Baltimore first, one of the matchups I look for in any potential shootout is a game that can produce a high combined pass rate over expectation (PROE). These teams both play at a slow pace, but the key questions to identify in expected pass rates are: will they have any luck running the ball, and will the other team score points? Well, the Ravens rank 7th DVOA against the run and the Lions run defense ranks 3rd in DVOA so both offenses should struggle on the ground. And on the other side, these are two offenses ranking in the top half of the NFL. The problem is, however, that these two teams also boast strong pass defenses as well, and overall these defensive units can be a problem. 

    However, as Hilow appropriately called out in his NFL Edge analysis of this game, the Lions will dictate this game environment as the more adaptable offense. And in their matchup with the tough run defense of the Buccaneers last week, they deployed their highest PROE of the season. They didn’t have success on the ground early, so they put the ball in Goff’s hands and got after it. This week, they also likely won’t have much success on the ground, but now are down David Montgomery, have a hobbled Jahmyr Gibbs, and could be missing their starting left guard again in Jonah Jackson. Despite the Ravens strong pass defense, the Lions may need to attack in a similar fashion to last week.

    On the other side of the ball, the Ravens have not really been pushed much this season to have to throw the ball. The Lions represent the most talented offense they’ve faced yet this year (HOU, CIN with injured and immobile Burrow, IND, CLE, PIT, TEN) so their defensive metrics may be a bit misleading despite not allowing more than 24 points all season. If the Lions have success, will Todd Monken decide to unleash Lamar? The Lions actually rank as the league’s 4th-highest pass funnel, allowing +6.2% PROE (h/t Jake Tribbey of Fantasy Points) so Lamar’s volume is expected to be strong here. The Ravens like to run the ball of course, but still don’t have the feature back they want, and if they will likely be passing more often in this matchup, both Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews possess a nice combination of floor and upside with Lamar. These three Ravens with Amon-Ra and another Lion is a player block not many will be on (or switch Lamar with Goff and his pass catchers while bringing back Zay and Andrews).

    Cards // Seahawks

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    The Oracle

    The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

    Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

    Week 7 Topics

    1. A Tradition Unlike Any Other

    2. Moving Target

    3. High Expectations

    4. Floating Plays

    5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”


    1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?

    The Question ::

    A weekly staple of The Oracle, what makes this slate particularly unique?

    The Answers ::
    JM >>

    We talk all the time about how “chalk forms no matter what,” and we talk about that in preparation for weeks like this. In this week’s Angles Pod, I likened DFS play to “trying to capture lightning.” In that context, I said that Raheem Mostert in Week 6 was like a hill in the landscape, so even though a lot more people were standing there waiting for lightning, the chances of lightning striking that spot were also dramatically higher than some other spots. On the flip side, this week is more like a level landscape, and there are some natural rises and falls in the landscape that makes some spots marginally likelier than others to get hit by lightning, but because there are no hills in the landscape, there are huge numbers of people willing to stand together on the minor rises in the landscape in hopes that lightning will hit them. Maybe it will. But those spots aren’t dramatically more likely than others to catch lightning this week.

    Said differently: the chalk this week is generally “good in the context of this week,” but it isn’t dramatically better than a lot of other viable plays clumped up around the chalk. Because of that setup, I’ll very naturally end up underweight the field on “chalk pieces I like…but don’t like as much as the field likes them,” and I’ll very naturally end up overweight the field on spots that the field will be overlooking because of their willingness to stand together on small rises in the landscape.

    Xandamere >>

    Low game totals. We have a game at 47.5, then a couple in the 43-45 range, and a bunch below. Only TWO teams on the main slate are projected for 25+ points, which is absolutely wild. One could argue Vegas is overreacting to the down scoring environment…or maybe they are properly reacting after getting smashed by bettors hitting every under this season? 

    What this means is that raw points are more useful than salary multipliers. It’s likely to be a lower-scoring week, and an expensive stud who gets you 30 is highly likely to be a valuable piece of a roster even if it’s only a little over 3x his salary. Value plays who can get you 15-20 are more valuable. POINTS are more valuable because there are fewer of them to go around. It’s also a week where, while chalk forms as it always does, the chalk is likelier to be, on the whole, more fragile than other weeks because there just aren’t many guys in true smash spots with relatively low chances of failure.

    Hilow >>

    Beyond the top-level “state of the slate,” where we’re lacking multiple top-end game environments and team situations, this slate sets up for two glaring trends. First, there isn’t an abundance of “safe” value, meaning we should expect the field to largely look to build more balanced rosters than in previous weeks. Second, the chalk is much more fragile than we have seen to this point in the season. Those two aspects of this slate make it more like a labyrinth than a puzzle, filled with traps and dead ends at every turn! Avoiding those traps becomes more important on a slate like this, something that is also highly likely to give the field fits this week.

    Mike >>

    This week is similar to last week but taken to another level with only 10 games (i.e. – 20 teams) on the slate and several of those games having very low Vegas implied totals. We also have one clear-cut top game environment, but that game’s total has been bet down several points since opening. All of it sets up a situation where we have a potentially very unpredictable and volatile slate. There don’t appear to be many “sure things” in terms of game environments or individual player situations/matchups, but we know that the “field” will naturally still congregate to a few specific spots based on optimizers and projections. 


    2. Moving Target

    The Question ::

    Last week’s main slate had somewhat limited scoring that resulted in lower “winning scores” than normal. Many weeks we see winning scores in the 230-250 range on Draftkings, while last week the Milly Maker winner scored 228, but 2nd place was far behind at 216 points, and most of the other big contests had winning scores ranging from the high 190’s to 210. This week we have only 10 games on the slate, the game with the highest implied total has actually had its total dropping significantly throughout the week, and a lot of offenses with questionable quarterback situations.

    Taking all of those things into account, it seems reasonable to expect a similar target for winning tournaments this week. How does this “moving target” potentially affect your approach to the slate and/or how you evaluate players for your player pool?

    The Answers ::

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    Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

    We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

    Afternoon-Only

    Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

    FINDING AN EDGE

    The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries had things go wrong, and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity and advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021, and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

    This Week’s Slate
    • We once again have four games on the Afternoon slate but the big difference from last week is that these are the four games with the highest totals on the main slate. This situation, specifically, makes it really interesting to consider making lineups using *only* players from the late games and playing them in the main slate. It will have a certain level of natural uniqueness to it, and theoretically, it is attacking the best game environments.
    • The critical components of the slate will be: Kenneth Walker, Cooper Kupp, and the Chargers // Chiefs game. 
    • Walker will be mega-chalk on both the main slate and the afternoon slate but is in an incredible spot. How Walker performs will have an enormous impact on the slate.
    • Kupp has the highest raw point projection and ceiling on the slate, and he’s in a terrific matchup where his team’s backfield is in shambles. His salary makes using him a big decision, as it will be very hard to play Kupp and also build around the LAC // KC game.
    • The LAC // KC game is where it gets really interesting. That game feels a bit easier to avoid on the main slate as the pieces are expensive and there are enough “cheap” games to choose from that at least one of them has a good chance of working out – at least from a price considered standpoint. On the Afternoon slate, however, this game simply going over its game total of 48 (a 50/50 proposition) could make it a must-have (in some form, at least). It’s hard to imagine the Afternoon slate playing out in a way where none of Mahomes // Herbert // Pacheco // Ekeler is on a winning lineup.
    • The DK Metcalf injury situation will have a huge impact on the slate. If Metcalf is out, Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be extremely high owned and all of the expensive pieces mentioned above will also gain steam with easy salary relief available for everyone.
    Ownership Strategy
    • Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
    • This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
    • This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
    • Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.
    QB Strategy

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    Late Swap

    StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

    Need more late swap education? Read this free educational article on Late Swap

    Outlook – Late Games:

    Week 7 offers us a small 10 game slate, with only one game with an implied point total over 45. As always, chalk is forming, and it’s mainly focused around 3 players at each skill position: RB – Jacobs, Pacheco, and Kenneth Walker, WR – Kupp, Keenan Allen, and Zay Flowers, and TE – Kelce, Andrews, and Luke Musgrave. In a week with very few strong on-paper plays, the field is scrambling to find some “feel good” options. We’ll discuss below how we can utilize that knowledge to our advantage as there are 4 games in the late window this week, and many viable options to leverage off some fragile chalk, such as ~20% owned Luke Musgrave and Kenneth Walker. 

    Important Early Outcomes to Watch:
    • Josh Jacobs – Five of the six highest players in projected ownership fall into the late window (Kupp, Kelce, Pacheco, Keenan Allen, and Kenneth Walker), with Josh Jacobs the only 1pm EST starter. Jacobs has 3 straight games with 25 or more opportunities and is likely to be in line for another heavy workload with Jimmy Garoppolo set to miss with a back injury.
    • Zay Flowers and Jahmyr Gibbs – These two square off against each other as the Lions visit the Ravens while both are projected as top 4 in ownership at their respective positions.
    • Slate Breakers, such as Ja’Marr Chase’s 55.2 DK point performance in week 5.
    Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

    $7,100 and up:

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    Battle Royale

    Lex is a matchup researcher who focuses his play on Underdog’s Battle Royale contest

    Welcome to Week 7!

    If you are new to this contest or just want to get a bigger picture of the first two years of the contest, here is my review of the top Battle Royale rosters in 2021 and 2022.

    For this week, I’ll be hitting on some of my thoughts on each position and updating some trending stats. Let’s get started!

    Looking at Week 7

    Flipping from last week, Week 7 feels barren at WR and RB in comparison to Week 6. While more elite QB names are in the pool this week, many of the QB spots do feel similar to last week in lacking obvious smash spots.

    QB:

    Notable QBs missing from the slate: Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins, Anthony Richardson

    Top 6 QBs by ADP: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford

    Notes:

    • Geno Smith vs ARI: This is a bet on game environment popping (only KC is implied for more points than SEA). We know Carroll will be content to run the ball all over this weak ARI run defense but in the event that Dobbs (or maybe Kyler Murray?) is able to keep up on the other side (which ARI has shown evidence of doing this year), Geno could see an uptick in attempts in a beatable matchup. Should be stacked with at least 1 of his 4 main skill players, and an ARI runback on the other side probably tells the right story of why Geno is hitting.
    • Daniel Jones vs WAS: Jones’s game uncertainty is holding back this game total. This has been an exploitable defense all year, and Jones has one of the highest ceilings on the slate (assuming he’s healthy enough to play). In the last 5 games vs WAS, Jones has rushed for 74, 4, 95, 71, and 35 yards and he has topped 30 pass attempts in 7 of 8 career matchups. He’s struggled against a string of tough defenses, but now has Saquon back, and the matchup sets up well for his bigger targets (Waller, Slayton, Hyatt).
    • Mathew Stafford vs PIT: PIT doesn’t have a bad defense by any stretch, but they are exploitable in the secondary, and Stafford happens to have some receivers who can take full advantage. He still hasn’t had TD variance go his way yet, but he’s operating at an elite level. Some concern with the PIT pass rush, but Kupp’s ability to get open quickly will help as it did with the PHI pass rush. The LAR RB carnage should force an uptick in Rams passing as well. Double stacking I’m normally against this contest, but given the nature of the slate, a Stafford double stack is viable and unique.
    • Jordan Love @ DEN: I like him paired with any of Watson, Jones, and Musgrave against a struggling Denver defense. Love-Watson makes the most sense, but Love-Jones will be more unique and could potentially capture more of the GB points.
    • Deshaun Watson @ IND: He has scored 21 fantasy points in 2 of 3 games, faces a below-average pass defense, pairs well with Amari Cooper, and will be very low-owned due to uncertainty of playing all week (will rise if positive news continues to come out).
    • Pair Mahomes with Kelce whenever you have the rare chance, gamestack Lamar, pair Allen with Gabe Davis, pair Herbert with Ekeler.
    RB:

    Notable RBs missing from this slate: Christian McCaffrey, Tony Pollard, Travis Etienne, Alvin Kamara, Raheem Mostert, De’Andre Swift, Breece Hall, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Dameon Pierce

    Notes:

    • Kenneth Walker vs ARI: Walker is going as the RB2 this week, usually at the end of the first round of drafts. Will most frequently get drafted with the guys right in front and behind him, so find ways to get unique with him. Pair with Geno, Adams over Jacobs, Pacheco over Mahomes, Gibbs/LaPorta over St. Brown.
    • Aaron Jones @ DEN: Still carries injury uncertainty, but gets an absolute smash spot at discounted ADP.
    • Isaiah Pacheco vs LAC: Can be one way to leverage Mahomes, but with his growing pass game role, can even be paired with Mahomes as a way to correlate with Chargers weak RB pass defense and also get leverage on Kelce.
    • Brian Robinson @ NYG: RBs have been feasting on the Giants to begin the year, while Robinson’s own stock has fallen after facing a tough stretch of run defenses. Still dominating touches in this backfield, and has multi-TD upside.
    • Jaylen Warren @ LAR: Rams have been beatable on the ground, Warren has been eating into Najee’s touches as the more explosive player, and he receives work through the air. Would prefer to only use him in game stacks.
    • Ekeler (@KC) and Jacobs (@CHI) are obviously good plays given the amount of volume each sees. While each certainly has a high ceiling, finding a way to get both on your roster locks your team into the two highest floors at the position on the slate (O’Connell targeted Jacobs 11 times in his one start).
    WR:

    Notable WRs missing from this slate: AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Ceedee Lamb, Deandre Hopkins, Garrett Wilson, Adam Thielen, Nico Collins, Jordan Addison, Justin Jefferson

    WR depth is absolutely depleted this week! Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams are normal names to appear near the top of drafts, but the slate is without a truckload of the frequently drafted WRs. This is a perfect week to “scroll down” in drafts because there are so few strong plays you are passing up at higher ADPs. There is also less variance in RB projections than WRs, making it easier to find overlooked WRs than RBs, especially when the RB position is weak in its depth this week.

    Notes:

    • Davante Adams @ CHI: Demanding targets to the media (squeaky wheel), received 13 targets in O’Connell’s only start despite leaving the game briefly, and isn’t even being drafted in the 1st round on a slate barren of WRs with his same ceiling.
    • Amari Cooper @ IND: May get Watson back, but still put up 100 yards with Walker against SF. IND has been very generous to WR1s. Dome game. Pairing with Watson leverages the injury uncertainty since he’d likely be going earlier in drafts this week otherwise.
    • Cooper Kupp vs PIT: There should be no other thought than Kupp or Kelce at the 1.01 this week, and given the WR depth, I’m probably leaning Kupp every time I have the chance.
    • Puka Nacua vs PIT: Still plenty of volume to excel on with Kupp back. Dropped TD last week probably holding his ADP down this week. Pairing with Kelce is a really smart way to leverage the Kelce/Kupp spot.
    • Rashee Rice vs LAC: LAC has been bad against WR1s, and although Kelce is basically KC’s WR1, Rice has been the most consistent of KC’s ragtag group of wide receivers. Pairing with Mahomes helps leverage Kelce by getting his points through Mahomes, while any points Rice scores are points not going to Kelce.
    • SEA WRs vs ARI: With Kenneth Walker going in the first round, all of the receivers provide some leverage on him (or can be stacked if going all in on the game environment). Metcalf sets up to take advantage of ARI’s high percentage allowance of deep completions, and Smith-Njigba is finally running all the routes and can take advantage of ARI’s style of defense. Metcalf hasn’t practiced (but he’s also been dealing with injury for weeks), and Lockett has been limited with a hammy; that has been one thing suppressing their ADPs.
    • Marquise Brown @ SEA: Top target-getter for ARI playing a SEA defense that has surprisingly been struggling a bit vs WRs.
    • Christian Watson @ DEN: Explosive player playing a historically bad defense through 6 weeks.
    • Zay Flowers vs DET: Lions have been attackable through secondary and dealing with CB injuries. Kelce-Flowers is a way to gain leverage on Mark Andrews and further bet on Kelce as the top-scoring TE.
    • Diontae Johnson @ LAR: Johnson has been an elite target-getter throughout his career whenever he’s remained healthy.

    TE:

    Notable TEs missing from this slate: TJ Hockenson, George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, Evan Engram, Dalton Schultz, Jake Ferguson

    Notes:

    • Travis Kelce vs LAC: Only Kupp goes before Kelce for me this week. Smash matchup, overall lower scoring slate so the kind of score Kelce can put up at TE is really valuable. Find ways to make him unique/create leverage: Pair with Mahomes whenever possible, Flowers and Saquon can create some leverage on Andrews/Waller and pair with Pacheco and a Charger.
    • Mark Andrews vs DET: Still getting really good usage, sees a matchup that leans toward the air, and can always outpace the rest of the TE position on any given week.
    • Darren Waller vs WAS: WAS has struggled against big-bodied targets, and Waller fits the mold as NYG’s de facto WR1. Several WAS players to pair with in bets on this game environment, and can also find ways to leverage Kelce and Andrews too given how late Waller goes.
    • Kyle Pitts @ TB: Finally seeing better usage, the matchup leans toward the air
    • Michael Mayer @ CHI: He has been worked into the game plan, but gets backup QB so more risky. Still, some leverage off the other 3 weapons drafted
    • Logan Thomas @ NYG: Disappeared last week, but good matchup and has other strong games already this year in this offense
    • Luke Musgrave @ DEN: Already shown flashes as a rookie, now gets an extremely exploitable defense

    Underowned Combos:

    • Geno Smith + Tyler Lockett + Marquise Brown
    • Geno Smith + Kenneth Walker/Jaxon Smith-Njigba
    • Josh Dobbs + Marquise Brown + Kenneth Walker
    • Daniel Jones + Darren Waller + Brian Robinson
    • Daniel Jones + Saquon Barkley + Terry McLaurin/Logan Thomas
    • Justin Herbert + Austin Ekeler + Isiah Pacheco
    • Jordan Love + Aaron Jones + Christian Watson
    • Matthew Stafford + Cooper Kupp + Puka Nacua + Jaylen Warren
    • Desmond Ridder + Kyle Pitts/Drake London + Chris Godwin

    Notable Stats

    These are some notable stats from rosters appearing in the top 5 of the contest so far this season.

    1st place performance:

    • 29 of the 42 teams had at least one flex player score 30+ half-PPR fantasy points
    • 19 of the 42 teams had all flex players score at least 20+ half-PPR fantasy points
    • 38 of the 42 teams had all flex players score at least 15+ half-PPR fantasy points

    Stacking and Correlation:

    • 23 of 42 had a QB paired with just one teammate
      • WR (17), TE (4), RB (2)
    • 7 of 42 had a QB stacked with two teammates
      • WR-RB (4), WR-WR (2), WR-TE (1)
    • 5 of those 30 QB stacks had a runback (Opposing player)
    • 41 of 42 had at least one game correlation
    • 13 of 42 had two different game correlations

    FLEX usage:

    • 142 of 210 top-5 rosters have had two RBs, meaning they chose RB at FLEX over WR and TE.
    • The other 68 top 5 rosters all used WR at FLEX, meaning there has yet to be a single roster to place top 5 using double TE.

    Hope this helps you get started with the contest and ship that first place! Good luck everyone!